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I would like to introduce earningsviz.com, an options website focused on earnings trades. The thesis behind the website is simple: tail-end risk is mispriced around earnings events; by creating a simple and easy way to visualize this mispricing via analyzing option prices, it allows traders to pick the best strike prices and strategies to enter an earnings trade. This is achieved by comparing a historical distribution of changes in the stock after earnings against the implied moves of the stock calculated via tight vertical spreads. This comparison yields an edge value that demonstrates whether a stock is fairy valued, or more favorable for option buyers/sellers. A more detailed explanation of the methodology can be found here. Currently, EarningsViz is in a beta mode so all the information is available for free - the companies listed are all reporting next week (updated every Thursday/Friday). In the future, there will be a subscription required for accessing the information, and I plan on giving SteadyOptions users a discount. Also, I plan on adding strategies and trades for pre and post earnings soon. I am open to feedback/questions on the site as well as features you would like to see added, so let me know what you think!

For Option Traders, The Real Opportunity in Tesla Inc is After Earnings Date Published: 2017-05-03 Written by Ophir Gottlieb LEDE Tesla Inc, with all of its stock volatility and uncertainty, follows a beautiful pattern after earnings are released and it makes for an opportunity with options. But, we are waiting for the volatile stock move after earnings to happen, and in that next 30-days of equilibrium, we find a gem. TESLA INC AFTER EARNINGSWe can examine this, objectively, with a custom back-test. Here is our custom earnings set-up: Said plainly, we will open our position one day after earnings, and close it 30 days later. We after testing using the 30-day options (monthly option) and we are simply selling an out of the money put spread. To be clear, this is bet that, after the big earnings move, when the price finds an equilibrium, for the 30-days following, a bet that the sock "won't go down a lot," has been a big winner. Here are the results over the last three-years: While that 95.3% return looks tasty, it's actually better than it seems. We treat Tesla's quarterly sales press releases as earnings events too, as any truly knowledgeable trader would. In total, there were 23 earnings and quarterly sales releases in this 3-year period, so that would be 23 trades. That's 23 trades, each for one month, for a total holding period of 23 months. We see 15 winning trades and 8 losing trades. This isn't a panacea -- it's real analysis -- where we look for edge, and repeating patterns. Where risk taken is less than the reward received. It's a fair question to ask if this strategy actually works over different time periods. Here are the results over the last two-years: Now we see a 61.2% return over the last sixteen earnings releases. The short-put spread was a winner 12-times, and it was a loser 4-times. Again, the trade was a winner the majority of the time, not all of the time. But this is a strategy, not an one-time gamble. Finally, we examine the six-months: That's a 33.3% return over the last three earnings releases, and all three trades were winners, while not taking any risk of the actual earnings release. WHAT HAPPENED There are patterns to stock behaviors before and after earnings and those patterns reveal opportunities in the option market, without taking the actual risk of earnings. There is another approach to Tesla Inc before earnings, that we discussed a few days ago. This is how people profit from the option market -- it's preparation, not luck. Take an idea, test it over several periods, note the robustness of the results, and apply lessons learned. To see how to do this for any stock and for any strategy with just the click of a few buttons, we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: Tap Here to See the Tools at Work Thanks for reading. Risk Disclosure You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options. Past performance is not an indication of future results. Trading futures and options involves the risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether futures or options are appropriate to your financial situation. Only risk capital should be used when trading futures or options. Investors could lose more than their initial investment. Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results. The risk of loss in trading can be substantial, carefully consider the inherent risks of such an investment in light of your financial condition. The author has no position in Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) as of this writing. Back-test Link

@Yowster or others, I'm hoping to get some advice. I occasionally trade unofficial hold through earnings (HTE) calendars and have run into a recurring issue. After earnings, sometimes the price jump in the stock results in my calendar becoming deep in the money. When I try to close out the deep ITM calendar, the market makes it very difficult or impossible for me to close out at a reasonable price. For example, this recently happened to me on RHT. I had an 82C calendar spread March 31 short / April 7 long and at the close before earnings on March 27 the stock price was $82.32. About an hour after the open on March 28, RHT stock was at $86.93. So my 82C were $4.93 ITM. But the mid-price to close out the spread was in a kind-of 'backwardation' (yes, I know that isn't the exact right term, but the situation seems similar). The mid for the short leg was $5.00 and the mid for the long leg was $4.90, so a debit of $0.10 to close the spread. Paying a $0.10 debit to close the spread (or even closing at $0.00) seemed unreasonable given that if I held the short leg through expiration, any premium to close the short options would be gone and hopefully the long option would recover some premium ($0.10 to $0.15 based on my review of other RHT options in different time periods). So I held the spread through expiration and got assigned. I closed out the position the following day using a combo stock / option order on TOS. I'd like someone who has done a number of these HTE trades to help me understand: 1. Has this ever happened to you? How would you recommend closing the trade when the price to close out the calendar spread is "way off" from what seems reasonable (e.g., having to pay a debit to close)? 2. If I do hold through expiration and get assigned, am I still 100% covered by the long option? In other words, will the changes in the long option prices offset changes in the short stock position exactly? I'm guessing the answer is no, but I haven't really looked at this yet and am not sure the best way to model it. I appreciate the advice. Thank you!

What is the best way to receive an alert to find out when a company has just announced its earnings date? Is there a tool in IB or TOS that can do this or perhaps another way? Have been manually visiting Yahoo but it's quite time consuming to check symbol by symbol each day. Thanks

This video describes a trade on NFLX before earnings. The rationale was to take advantage of the increased volatility in our option by initiating this earnings play. We will show you in this video why this trade had a bad risk/reward despite inflated IV. Download video: How NOT to Trade $NFLX Earnings.wmv

NFLX announced earnings today after the close. Couple hours before the market close, I got a following trade alert from one of options sites I follow: Trade: SELL -1 IRON CONDOR NFLX 100 APR 15 520/522.5/427.5/425 CALL/PUT @.91 LMT [TO OPEN/TO OPEN/TO OPEN/TO OPEN] Trade Explanation: For the Volatility Advisory in NFLX, we are selling the Apr 427.5 puts and 520 calls and buy the Apr 425 puts and 522.5 calls for a net credit of $0.91 to open. Underlying Price: $474.22 Click here to view the article

Our long term members know that we like to use few non-directional strategies to play earnings. There are few things we like about those strategies: They are predictable. They are repeatable. They are flexible. They can be used on the same stocks cycle after cycle. The following article described few stocks that we use over and over again, cycle after cycle. We said "$TSLA, $LNKD, $NFLX, $GOOG: Thank You, See You Next Cycle".Well, the Next Cycle is already here. Click here to view the article

Our long term followers know that buying premium into earnings is one of our favorite strategies. I wrote about the strategy in my Seeking Alpha article Exploiting Earnings Associated Rising Volatility. IV (Implied Volatility) usually increases sharply a few days before earnings, and the increase should compensate for the negative theta. We have been using this strategy in our SteadyOptions model portfolio with great success. However, not all stocks are suitable for that strategy. Some stocks experience consistent pattern of losses when buying premium before earnings. For those stocks we are using some alternative strategies like calendars. Click here to view the article

In one of my previous articles I described a study done by tastytrade, claiming that buying premium before earnings does not work. The title of the study was "We Put The Nail In The Coffin On "Buying Premium Prior To Earnings". ​I demonstrated that their study was highly flawed, for several reasons (strikes selection, stocks selection, timing etc.) It seems that they did now another study, claiming to get similar results. Click here to view the article

Hello. Has anyone ever tried purchasing straddles or strangles with expirations out 2 months or more (even out to near LEAPS time frame) and doing this around earnings time for very small gains with very limited theta decay. Alternatively holding these longer dated options through the earnings announcements? Thanks.

Hello again. If I am looking for good post-earnings analysis right after the company makes its earning announcement then what site(s) do you think are the best. Perhaps flyonthewall, http://www.theflyonthewall.com/splashPage.php?action=main&arg=A Is it enough that if a company misses its earnings forecast then the stock will go down? Look at FNSR today. The stock went up despite missing earnings forecasts.

As I write this I am pretty sure I already know the answer, but I was wondering if anyone has tried to this based on indicators like volume, OI, IV increase on just the Put or Call side, etc., and if they had any success? I know the IV crash would be a major issue with being directional anyway, but regardless knowing if anyone had any success in this area could be helpful. Thanks.

Could some of the senior members and/or Kim comment on this idea? Does the IV (when it moves at all) on weeklies always outpace or at least stay even with the monthlies on the earnings trades? Could you then do the opposite of a calendar and long the weeklies and short the monthlies on an earnings trade? Take this hypothetical example: AAPL underlying @ 615 let's say its 19 July and the 27 July AAPL weekly is released. Let's say we have this made up pricing: 1. 27 July AAPL 615 Call @ $10.00 2. 27 July AAPL 615 Put @ $10.00 3. 17 Aug AAPL 615 Call @ $20.00 4. 17 Aug AAPL 615 Put @ $20.00 You would do this: long qty 2 of #1 long qty 2 of #2 (creating a straddle) short qty 1 of #3 short qty 1 of #4 I am sure the theta will kill you if you don't get an IV increase, so do this on a stock like AAPL probably would not work because of the high stock price (unless your portfolio is huge). Any thoughts on a trade that could take advantage of the greater IV increase in the weeklies? Thanks!