SteadyOptions is an options trading forum where you can find solutions from top options traders. Join Us!

We’ve all been there… researching options strategies and unable to find the answers we’re looking for. SteadyOptions has your solution.

Betting on AAPL Earnings?


Apple is a company that tends to surprise Wall Street every time it reports its quarterly AAPL earnings, usually on the upside, occasionally on the down. As a result, the stock often makes big moves the next day - sometimes as much as 7-8%. How can you leverage those moves?

Given the power of stock options to leverage your investment dollars, you might be tempted to bet on the AAPL earnings report coming out today by buying Apple calls (if you think the stock is going up) or Apple puts (if you want to bet that it will go down).

 

That bet paid off handsomely in July 2016 when Apple reported earnings. The stock rose 6.5% the next day and the value of Apple’s weekly calls increased dramatically.

 

But that’s the exception, not the rule.

 

As I showed in one of my Seeking Alpha articles, buying either puts or calls just before Apple’s earnings report is, on average, a losing proposition.

 

When you look at longer timeframe, AAPL tends to move less than expected. Take a look at the screenshot from optionslam.com, showing the post earnings movement of the stock in the last 10 cycles:
 

Capture.PNG

 

 

The explanation for those numbers is simple. Over time, the options tend to overprice the potential post-earnings move. Those options experience huge volatility drop the day after the earnings are announced. In most cases, this drop erases most of the gains, even if the stock had a substantial move.

 

The last column shows the one day post earnings performance of the weekly straddle. As we can see, it has lost money 8 out of 10 times. Which means that 8 out of 10 times the stock moved less than expected. If I had to choose, I would take the other side of the trade (selling those options).

 

Jeff Augen, a successful options trader and author of six books, agrees:

"There are many examples of extraordinary large earnings-related price spikes that are not reflected in pre-announcement prices. Unfortunately, there is no reliable method for predicting such an event. The opposite case is much more common - pre-earnings option prices tend to exaggerate the risk by anticipating the largest possible spike."

 

"Trying to predict the future is like driving down a country road at night with no headlights on and looking out the back window." - Peter Drucker

 

Related articles:

 

Want to learn how to trade options in a less risky way?

 

Start Your Free Trial

 

What Is SteadyOptions?

12 Years CAGR of 114.5%

Full Trading Plan

Complete Portfolio Approach

Real-time trade sharing: entry, exit, and adjustments

Diversified Options Strategies

Exclusive Community Forum

Steady And Consistent Gains

High Quality Education

Risk Management, Portfolio Size

Performance based on real fills

Subscribe to SteadyOptions now and experience the full power of options trading!
Subscribe

Non-directional Options Strategies

10-15 trade Ideas Per Month

Targets 5-7% Monthly Net Return

Visit our Education Center

Recent Articles

Articles

  • Optimizing Portfolio Growth: Managing Capital and Liabilities in Modern Tax Planning

    Growing your investment portfolio involves more than just picking winners. While strong returns are the goal, many investors overlook a critical factor that significantly impacts their net worth: tax planning. Managing your capital and liabilities with taxes in mind isn't just about saving money in April. It's a year-round strategy that can accelerate your portfolio's growth and help you keep more of what you earn.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 537 views
  • Expanded Trading Hours for Select Equity Options

    The Cboe Options Exchange will start offering expanded trading hours for select high-liquidity single-stock equity options. The schedule features a morning Global Trading Hours (GTH) session from 7:30 a.m. to 9:25 a.m. ET and an afternoon Curb session from 4:00 p.m. to 4:15 p.m.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 628 views
  • How LEAPS Differ From Short-Term Options

    LEAPS stands for Long-Term Equity Anticipation Security. Which is just a long-dated option, typically referring to those with expirations more than a year out. There’s no technical difference between LEAPS and shorter-term options other than the expiration date. They’re traded on the same exchanges and have the same rules surrounding margin and whatnot.

    By Pat Crawley,

    • 0 comments
    • 31205 views
  • Why Not to Hold Strangles Through Earnings

    In my previous article, I described a strategy of buying a long strangle a few days before earnings and selling them just before earnings. In this article, I will show why it might be not a good idea to keep those strangles through earnings.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 6093 views
  • Pre-Earnings Entry Price: What 31,000 Cycles Say

    Every card in the scanner carries a block called How expensive is this entry? It compares what you would pay today against what the same setup cost on the same ticker at the same point in past cycles. I built that block in August. It reads well. But a reading that looks sensible and a reading that predicts something are different things, and until last week I had only the first.

     

    By Romuald,

    • 3 comments
    • 672 views
  • Expensive Compared to What?

    A trader looks at a pre-earnings straddle and asks whether it is expensive. It is the right instinct and the wrong question, because the word carries no meaning on its own. Expensive against what? A $12 straddle on a $200 stock is not expensive or cheap. It is $12.

    By Romuald,

    • 0 comments
    • 550 views
  • Beyond Strategies: What Options Traders Should Know

    Options education almost always begins with structures. Traders learn vertical spreads, calendars, butterflies, condors, covered calls and straddles, study the expiration diagrams, work out maximum profit and loss, and build a sense of the conditions each structure is supposed to suit. That foundation is necessary and there is no way around it.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 1086 views
  • SPX vs SPY Options: Which One Should You Trade? (2026 Guide)

    Both SPX and SPY options give you exposure to the S&P 500. They track the same 500 stocks, move nearly tick-for-tick, and offer the same core strategies — credit spreads, iron condors, butterflies, and 0DTE trades. Yet the two products settle differently, are taxed differently, and carry very different assignment risks.

    By krisbee,

    • 0 comments
    • 5196 views
  • Strike Price Effects Or Pinning Revisted

    Loyal readers of this blog will recall my post from 2019 “Pinning Down the ‘Option Pinning’”. If you have not heard of pinning have a look at that article as – spoiler – everything in it as well as Jeff Augen’s observations in his books which are referenced is still valid.

    By TrustyJules,

    • 0 comments
    • 2344 views
  • Could This Strategy Be The Holy Grail Of Investing?

    This is a reprint of my Seeking Alpha article from 2013. If you have SA subscription, you can read the full article including hundreds of comments here. For the record, the strategy implementation has changed since then, but the principle remains the same. You can read more here

    By Kim,

    • 6 comments
    • 5764 views

  Report Article


We want to hear from you!


There are no comments to display.



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...