Trading Blog

2019 marks our 8th year as a public service. It was a good year overall. We closed 151 winners out of 232 trades. Our model portfolio produced 41.7% compounded gain on the whole account based on 10% allocation per trade. We had only two losing months in 2019. 

Our readers know that our returns have been tracked by Pro-Trading-Profits, an independent third party website that tracks performance of hundreds investment newsletters. They provided an excellent explanation how to analyze and compare performance of different trading systems. 

Some traders have entered the options arena by selling exceptionally long-term contracts. The rationale for this is based on dollar amounts. A 24-month contract may yield an impressive dollar amount, but is it the best net return? It is not.

When buying a home, individuals who have accumulated enough wealth to pay cash or make a substantial down payment have a decision to make. Take advantage of record low interest rates and lock in a 30-year mortgage for around 2.5%? Or pay cash and make payments to yourself by investing the savings?

The key ingredient on expiration Friday is volatility collapse. At the beginning of that last trading day, there are more than 6 hours of trading yet to go. However, there are 38 hours left before expiration on Saturday. When volatility is high, OTM options are most likely to be overpriced.

Volatility is still widely misunderstood — and feared — by novice traders. As someone lacking in trading knowledge and experience, you often hear and believe horror stories of unstable markets. The fear is valid. After all, your shares and investments are at an elevated risk in an unpredictable environment.

Options traders tend to think mathematically. When considering selection of an underlying, risks and expected profits, the model of outcomes is a primary tool for making selections. Without a model how can anyone understand the differences between two or more options that might otherwise appear the same – similar moneyness, same strike, and same premium.

Are you new to the world of investments? Most likely; it’s not something you just fall into! BUt at the same time, investing can be done by anyone. Investing doesn’t need to be saved for retirement. It isn’t something only the uber rich are able to get into.

Traders may view spreads as a means for reducing market risk. But this also means that the potential profit is just as limited as potential loss, and this is easily overlooked in the focus on risk alone. A realistic view of spreading is that it reduces risk in exchange for accepting limited maximum profit.

The impact of luck can play a meaningful role in the short-term outcomes of monthly option trades due to the requirement to roll expiring contracts. The extreme volatility in 2020 highlightsthis fact when we look at results of SPY cash secured put trades launched on slightly different start dates.

Option traders may be divided into two categories. First are those relying on instinct or casual observation. This group tends to speculate on directional movement, future volatility, value, and on potential profitability of trades. The second group is involved deeply with math of trading and depends on what is perceived as certainty or near certainty.

Traders hear the term put/call parity a lot, but what does it mean? There are two definitions and they are vastly different from one another. The first definition involves the net credit/debit for any combination trade, with trading costs are considered. The second definition takes assumed interest rates and present value into mind.