Trading Blog

2018 marks our seventh year as a public service. It was an excellent and exciting year. We closed 124 winners out of 161 trades. Our model portfolio produced 129.5% compounded gain on the whole account based on 10% allocation per trade. The winning ratio was 77.0%. We had only one losing month in 2018. 

Our readers know that our returns have been tracked by Pro-Trading-Profits, an independent third party website that tracks performance of hundreds investment newsletters. They provided an excellent explanation how to analyze and compare performance of different trading systems. 

One of the most common fears in option trading is one of early assignment.  The fear of having a large number of shares (or a large short position) coupled with a potential margin call (or Reg-T call) causing a sudden shortage of cash in their accounts worries investors.  Investors commonly view assignment as a huge potential risk.

This investing lesson is a tale of two time periods that highlight the important role of equity asset class diversification and systematic rebalancing in an equity fund portfolio.  Human nature is a failed investor, when our natural instinct is often to do the exact opposite of what we should do in practice.

Bill Ackman is an American investor, hedge fund manager and philanthropist. He is the founder and CEO of Pershing Square Capital Management, a hedge fund management company. Ackman is considered by some to be a contrarian investor but considers himself an activist investor.

Exactly how risky are uncovered calls? That depends … Some traders avoid uncovered calls altogether because the risk can be significant, even unlimited (in theory). Others can rationalize this strategy as only moderately risky based on how you pick expiration and strike.

According to www.bankrate.com, the current national average interest rate on bank savings accounts is only 0.10%. Many banks have barely budgeted on increasing interest rates even as the risk-free rate of return on a US Treasury Bill is currently in excess of 2%. This spread is a substantial profit margin for banks.

Everyone has heard about the troubling “false signals,” a price-based reversal indicator that shows up but does not lead to reversal. This is frustrating and expensive, but the problems in how traders react to false signals can be managed effectively with a few techniques.

Yesterday I closed our SE May 22.5 buy-write for a couple of reasons. First off, I knew that the position only had ~$0.20 more to gain over the next three weeks. I also knew those gains would take some time to capture as out-of-the-money puts (which is essentially what the May 22.5 buy-write is) hold their value until right before expiration.

In general, financial reporting is a scam.  The daily highlights of “President Trump had eggs for breakfast causing futures traders to worry as markets decline slightly” or “Markets up on Mickey Mouse’s birthday,” always amaze me at the abject lack of correlation. 

Last May, I wrote an article about how to analyze an investment strategy. Today I’ll use the concepts from that article to explain how the Steady Momentum ETF Portfolio (available as a bonus strategy to Steady Momentum subscribers) meets the criteria described in that article.

Options traders are “data wonks,” meaning we all rely on information to make what we hope are informed decisions. But how do you know the difference between valuable and reliable data on the one hand, and rumor or speculation on the other?