Trading Blog

2017 marks our sixth year as a public service. It was an excellent and exciting year. We closed 113 winners out of 138 trades. Our model portfolio produced 169.1% compounded gain on the whole account based on 10% allocation. The winning ratio was 81.9%. 2017 was our first year ever without a single monthly decline. 

Our readers know that our returns have been tracked by Pro-Trading-Profits, an independent third party website that tracks performance of hundreds investment newsletters. They provided an excellent explanation how to analyze and compare performance of different trading systems. 

Some Option traders prefer to trade mostly non directional strategies, while other option traders prefer to trade directional strategies.  Well, in the world of Options trading, there is no right or wrong answer. You can create a host of strategies based on your preferences and outlook.

Stoking the Embers of Inflation is one of the more important articles we have written. The Monetary Equation Identity discussed in the article provides a counterintuitive way to think about inflation. It took us a long time to accept that this identity lays out a real case for stagflation.

Academic research refers to the persistent phenomenon of ex-post implied volatility (IV) exceeding realized volatility (HV) as the Volatility Risk Premium (VRP). As it applies to option premiums, this leads to a positive expected return for being a systematic option seller.

As we enter the third week of June, sentiment has steadily gotten more optimistic, with sentiment polls like Investors Intelligence having risen now for the 5th straight week, while Bears have dropped down under 18%.  The net plurality now stands at 35%, which is worrisome given that Equity put/call data has also dipped down to levels last seen in late January when equities peaked.

VIX options use the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) as its underlying asset. VIX options were the first exchange-traded options that allowed investors to trade the market volatility. VIX options can be used as a hedge against sudden market decline, but also as speculation on future moves in volatility.

Hedge funds and institutions have been using options to get market leverage for years. Warren Buffett has been known to buy calls and sell puts to get bullish exposure, and so has Carl Icahn. And recently I told my subscribers about a massive options trades that shows just how these big investors use options.

The synthetic long stock is a low-risk, highly leverage strategy. But for synthetic short stock, the risk profile is completely different. For the synthetic long, the combination consists of a long call and a short put, at the same strike, and at the same expiration.

When trading, I believe very strongly that the best method for accumulating profits over the years is to ignore whether a specific position is currently profitable or is losing money.  When looking at any position, it's always necessary to make a buy/hold/sell decision.  Of course, for most option traders 'hold' wins most of the time. 

“The price of protecting quarterbacks was driven by the same forces that drove the price of other kinds of insurance: it rose with the value of the asset insured, with the risk posed to that asset.”  -Michael Lewis, The Blind Side. Counter-intuitively, that is often not the case in the capital markets.

I'm getting a lot of emails asking me to recommend an options advisory service. If you currently subscribe to an option trading service, or if you’re considering doing so, here are some tips how to select one. Those tips will help you to avoid some costly mistakes.