SteadyOptions is an options trading forum where you can find solutions from top options traders. TRY IT FREE!

We’ve all been there… researching options strategies and unable to find the answers we’re looking for. SteadyOptions has your solution.

Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0

How NOT to Trade $NFLX Earnings


NFLX announced earnings today after the close. Couple hours before the market close, I got a following trade alert from one of options sites I follow:

 

Trade: SELL -1 IRON CONDOR NFLX 100 APR 15 520/522.5/427.5/425 CALL/PUT @.91 LMT [TO OPEN/TO OPEN/TO OPEN/TO OPEN]

 

Trade Explanation: For the Volatility Advisory in NFLX, we are selling the Apr 427.5 puts and 520 calls and buy the Apr 425 puts and 522.5 calls for a net credit of $0.91 to open.

 

Underlying Price: $474.22

 

Price Action: We are selling this $2.5-wide Iron Condor in the online streaming company for a credit of $0.91. For an Iron Condor trade, we sell an out-of-the-money Call Vertical (520/522.5) and Put Vertical (427.5/425) simultaneously. The company has earnings after the close and the option markets are pricing in a move of 8-9%. We expect the shares to move after the report but are giving ourselves a nice range of $92.5 between the short strikes. We need the shares to continue to trade between our break-even levels of $426.59 on the downside and $520.91 on the upside.

 

The following was described as a rationale for the trade:

 

Volatility: Volatility is elevated in the Apr options which makes this trade attractive. The IV percentile rank is elevated at 73% also which also gives us a good opportunity to sell this Iron Condor. We expect volatility to fall sharply after earnings which will contract the value of this short-term neutral position.

 

Probability: There is an 80% probability that NFLX shares will be below the $520 level and a 80% probability that it will be above the $427.5 level at Apr expiration. This trade offers a good Risk/Reward scenario with the amount of credit collected vs. the probability numbers for this position.

 

Trade Duration: We have 2 days to Apr expiration in this position. This is a short-term position and time decay will increase quickly due to the time frame and the earnings report.

 

Logic: We want to take advantage of the increased volatility in our option by initiating this earnings play. Our short verticals are outside of the anticipated one standard deviation move that the options are pricing in so our probabilities are positive. The shares will hopefully remain between our short verticals and we will be aggressive in closing the trade.

 

My comments:

  1. It is true that Volatility is elevated in the Apr options, but this is completely normal, considering the upcoming earnings and does NOT make the trade attractive.
     
  2. It is also true that volatility will fall sharply after earnings, but it is not relevant if the stock will be trading above the long strikes. In this case, the trade will still lose 100%.
     
  3. 2 days to Apr expiration makes the trade much more risky because there will be no time to adjust or take any corrective action.
     
  4. "80% probability that NFLX shares will be below the $520 level" means nothing when earnings are involved. The price action will be determined by earnings only, not by options probabilities.
     
  5. "The shares will hopefully remain between our short verticals" - hope is not a strategy.
     
  6. The short strikes are less than 10% from the stock price, which is not far enough, considering NFLX earnings history.


Now, I want you to take a look at the last 10 cycles of NFLX post-earnings moves:

 

9d45e942bcae8d4393bd57cea96b650c.png
(This screenshot is taken from OptionSlam.com).

 

Now, I'm asking you this:

 

WHO IN HIS RIGHT MIND WOULD TRADE AN IRON CONDOR WITH SHORT STRIKES LESS THAN 10% FROM THE STOCK, ON A STOCK THAT HAS TENDENCY TO MOVE 15-25% AFTER EARNINGS ON A REGULAR BASIS???

 

The stock is trading above $530 after hours. If it stays this way tomorrow, this trade will be a 100% loser, and there is NOTHING you can do about it. But frankly, the final result doesn't really matter. To me, this trade is simply insane and shows complete lack of basic options understanding.

 

That said, I'm not completely dismissing trading Iron Condors through earnings. For many stocks, options consistently overestimate the expected move, and for those stocks, this strategy might have an edge (assuming proper position sizing). But NFLX is one of the worst stocks to use for this strategy, considering its earnings history.

 

Watch the video:

 

 

If you want to learn how to trade earnings the right way (we just booked 30% gain in NFLX pre-earnings trade):

 

Start Your Free Trial

What Is SteadyOptions?

Full Trading Plan

Complete Portfolio Approach

Diversified Options Strategies

Exclusive Community Forum

Steady And Consistent Gains

High Quality Education

Risk Management, Portfolio Size

Performance based on real fills

Try It Free

Non-directional Options Strategies

10-15 trade Ideas Per Month

Targets 5-7% Monthly Net Return

Visit our Education Center

Recent Articles

Articles

  • Things To Think About Before Getting Involved In Investing

    There are various benefits associated with investing. It can be a great way to boost your income, providing you with financial security during a troubling time. Smart investing also comes with the possibility of long-term returns, meaning it can be better to invest your money than leave it in your regular bank account (even if you are earning interest). 

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 195 views
  • Micron Technology (MU) Earnings Report June 30, 2022

    Welcome to the ORATS earnings report where we scan for companies with upcoming earnings announcements, check out historical earnings information, and find a potential options trade. Read on or watch the video overview here: https://youtu.be/IDgR3FzONnI.

    By ORATS_Matt,

    • 0 comments
    • 224 views
  • Does “Managing Winners” Add Value to Short Strangles?

    Some option educators suggest short strangles have historically benefited from actively managed exit strategies. A widely popularized approach is to enter S&P 500 strangles at 45 DTE and exit at 50% of the credit received or a 21 DTE time stop, whichever occurs first.

    By Jesse,

    • 2 comments
    • 4,702 views
  • NKE Earnings Report June 27, 2022

    Welcome to the ORATS earnings report where we scan for companies with upcoming earnings announcements, check out historical earnings information, and find a potential options trade. Read on or watch the video overview here: https://youtu.be/2mtx2ja-VwQ.

    By ORATS_Matt,

    • 0 comments
    • 233 views
  • KBH Earnings Report June 22, 2022

    Welcome to the ORATS earnings report where we scan for companies with upcoming earnings announcements, check out historical earnings information, and find a potential options trade.

    Read on or watch here:

    By ORATS_Matt,

    • 0 comments
    • 298 views
  • Know How To Trade Before Making An Investment

    Everyone is searching for a way to improve their living quality. Plenty of scopes are coming to the forefront and people are grabbing the opportunities with the hope of receiving the best revenue against their investment. A share market is a place that can return the high revenue of your investment.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 320 views
  • Implied Volatility and Standard Deviation

    1. Isn't holding a naked long call (as a result of locking in a profit or plain buying outright call) in general a bad idea? Reason I think so is because of the nature of IV: it mostly falls when the underlying is rising. So you have short theta and a big long vega moving against you.

    By Mark Wolfinger,

    • 0 comments
    • 300 views
  • Introducing a "Risk Free" Trade

    A few weeks ago, I got the following email from one of our former members: "I would like to share with you an article about "projected no risk trades" or "no risk trades". Of course I was skeptical. But when he shared the setup with me, I became intrigued. How does the following risk profile look to you?

    By Kim,

    • 6 comments
    • 1,392 views
  • What You Trade Matters

    Traders love to tell people that they can trade anything. That if you have the skills to be a trader, the specific item traded is unimportant. That may be true for some professional traders who are skilled technicians. However, it’s very different for gullible amateurs.

    By Mark Wolfinger,

    • 0 comments
    • 633 views
  • The Big Loss

    At his blog, Joey offers his perspective on the top reason that so many trader wannabes are not, and will not, become profitable traders. His post is titled: Learn to Lose Money to Make Money. Here are the Excerpts from the blog.

    By Mark Wolfinger,

    • 0 comments
    • 822 views

  Report Article
Sign in to follow this  
Followers 0


We want to hear from you!


They do it again:

 

Trade:   SELL -1 IRON CONDOR NFLX 100 JUL 15 105.36/107.5/90.36/88.21 CALL/PUT @1.00 LMT [TO OPEN/TO OPEN/TO OPEN/TO OPEN]

Trade Price:   $1.00 credit

Underlying Price:  $97.41

 

The short strikes are 7-8% from the underlying.

 

After being burned cycle after cycle, they refuse to learn the lesson..

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites


Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account. It's easy and free!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

Options Trading Blogs Expertido