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  4. Welcome to Steady Options

    July 2018 update: Many of our current and former members know our long time mentor @Yowster for his highly valuable contributions to SteadyOptions community. Many of you learned to appreciate his high professionalism and patience. I'm pleased to inform all members that going forward @Yowster will start contributing trades to our official model portfolio. This will allow us to expand the quantity and the quality of our trades, sometimes providing a slightly different angle and perspective. SteadyOptions is getting even better! Now you will get official trades from two traders for the price of one! This means more selection and more diversity. Those who followed @Kim to get the posts in trades and discussions forums, please don't forget to follow @Yowster. Of course you can also continue following the forums and the topics. Have a good trading!
  5. We are Expanding our Model Portfolio!

    This is a very great news. Congratulations! It is always a great source of education to read @Yowster postings
  6. Congratulations to @Yowster. His insights and suggestions has helped me and I am sure many other members here.
  7. We are Expanding our Model Portfolio!

    @Yowster - I agree and we have had a short dialogue about these trades earlier... I dont mind they are in the unofficial trades ... as long as you share your insightson the forum ;-)
  8. We are Expanding our Model Portfolio!

    Shame on you if you weren't already following @Yowster! Congrats to this and to strengthening an already great SO product.
  9. We are Expanding our Model Portfolio!

    @JacobH These hold through calendars are higher risk, higher reward trades, so they typically don't fit the model for official trades (there have been a few rare cases where an official trade held a smaller allocation of calendars through earnings where the stock had a strong tendency for moves to be at or below the implied). That being said, other have brought up these trades as well (I've posted on them too) so it's really a topic for the Unofficial Trades forum.
  10. We are Expanding our Model Portfolio!

    Second this. He always provides very insightful explanations that go into great detail. I'm still learning from Yowster and very excited to follow his trades. Congratulations @Yowster!
  11. Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    Just got a response from support saying that it's just a display issue and orders would be submitted with the limit price. Just tested and they are right. Still, I like using the preview function to double check my orders. Hopefully they get it fixed soon. (BTW, I was talking about the web interface)
  12. Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    Anyone having issues with limit orders on Multi-leg orders on Tradier? I just noticed that no matter what price I put in for a "net debit" order, the "order cost" after I click on preview is just the ask price... I've sent an email off to support.
  13. We are Expanding our Model Portfolio!

    Indeed, @Yowster is the #1 most patient person in this community by far. No one comes close.
  14. We are Expanding our Model Portfolio!

    Congratulations @Yowster, this is well deserved. Not only are you a very good trader (for example the hedged straddle), you are patient and know how to share that knowledge. @Kim Good job on building that fantastic team.
  15. We are not having another 10k portfolio. Our target allocation is around 60-70%, so we will probably have more trades.
  16. We are Expanding our Model Portfolio!

    Good news @Kim @Yowster Kim, Most of the time, official portfolio is fully loaded according to the expected setup (around 5 full position trades open). I'm not sure how Yowster's trade can fit in it? are we going to have 1 more 10k portfolio OR, you'll reduce your trade entries to give room for Yowster?
  17. We are Expanding our Model Portfolio!

    Great to hear - more idea generation from gifted investors is always appreciated! Congrats Yowster
  18. We are Expanding our Model Portfolio!

    Exactly, this is an enormous improvement in the service. Very happy to see this.
  19. We are Expanding our Model Portfolio!

    Congrats @Yowster I have no doubt that the additional contributions will add even more value to Steady Options.
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  21. We are Expanding our Model Portfolio!

    This is great news... @Yowster is a star like you Kim! Any chance we could se some ultra short term trade ideas holding calendars through earnings? (buying calendar day before earnings, closing day after) for low vol. earnings moves?
  22. Dear members, Many of our current and former members know our long time mentor @Yowster for his highly valuable contributions to SteadyOptions community. Many of you learned to appreciate his high professionalism and patience. I'm pleased to inform all members that going forward @Yowster will start contributing trades to our official model portfolio. This will allow us to expand the quantity and the quality of our trades, sometimes providing a slightly different angle and perspective. SteadyOptions is getting even better! Now you will get official trades from two traders for the price of one! This means more selection and more diversity. Those who followed @Kim to get the posts in trades and discussions forums, please don't forget to follow @Yowster. Of course you can also continue following the forums and the topics. Have a good trading!
  23. Welcome To PureVolatility

    PureVolatility now includes a second $10,000 model portfolio called TreasuryOptions! COMMISSION INTENSIVE TRADE, ONLY SUITABLE FOR THOSE TRADING WITH TRADIER, TASTYWORKS, EOPTION OR ROBINHHOOD This thread will be used to discuss the PV TLT model portfolio which is a strategy geared towards active traders. This is a very active method of trading TLT using Iron Flies as well as credit and debit spreads. This is a full portfolio combination trade rather than a single trade as part of a more broad portfolio. Therefore, it is managed much more conservatively than the standard single TLT Iron Fly. As such we are targeting lower gains and losses and lower volatility. The objective is to never have the combination trade/portfolio down more than 10% during any trade iteration. We do this by actively managing the positions and carrying Black Swan protection. We will also scale in to the back month while we scale out of the front month, so at times we will be carrying two expirations. We will target 10%+ monthly gains on the entire account value. This is a very active trade that is positioned based upon trade thesis and Greeks, but price action will also play a major role for adjustments. We don’t want to chase the tape, but we also cannot fight it. Therefore, the TLT portfolio is best suited for those interested in active trading and those looking to grind out singles rather than going for homeruns. UPDATE JULY 2018 After further analysis and thought, I will be changing the timing of this trade. From this point forward we will begin scaling out of one trade on the Friday before expiration and opening the next trade the following Monday. For example, we would begin scaling out of the July 27th expiration trade on Friday July 20th and begin scaling into the August 3rd trade on Monday July 23rd. Although there will be times where it will make sense to hold the entire trade into expiration week. This trade is designed to be Delta negative for today while still being Delta positive at expiration on the same underlying price. Therefore, if TLT has moved against us (higher for the week), we will simply hold into the next week to wait for our position Delta to morph from negative to positive. However, on most occasions we will close the Friday before expiration for the following reasons. To begin, the week before expiration is the sweet spot for max Theta while still being able to manage Gamma. Secondly, these spreads tend to become even more liquid during this period. Thirdly, we take no weekend risk. Fourthly, we will leave on the debit spread and VIX calls over the weekend: While many times this will cost us negative Theta (although not too bad because they are further dated and comparatively much smaller to the IFs), there will be a Monday at some point in the future where we cleanup on our VIX calls and that gain alone will pay for the negative weekend Theta for years to come. Fifthly, we only need to control Delta and Gamma for one week, which on a low vol underlying is a very reasonable expectation even a week away for expiration. P&L graph of an actual position:
  24. Investing in Private Companies

    Lightspeed Venture Partners turned a $480,000 investment in Snap into $2B (though they did also invest inthe second round). Such returns aren’t limited to Silicon Valley and the tech either. Tom Perkins at Genentech, received one of the highest payouts in history when it was acquired by Roche in 2009, turning a minute investment of $500 into an exit worth over $40b. Of course, such investments do not come without risk. Mark Suster of Upfront Ventures has noted that investors in startup private companies should expect the 1/3, 1/3, 1/3 return rule. Namely that 1/3 of your investments will be total losses, 1/3 will be around breakeven, and 1/3 will be successful, delivering the lion’s share of returns. Cambridge Associates and other studies have returned similar findings. Other VC firms insist that returns for startups mimic the Pareto returns, where 80% of the wins come from 20% of the investments. But whether the win ratio is 20% or 33%, it is clear making such investments come with risks. This risk can be partially alleviated by investing in second stage companies – those which already have a product, revenue (though they may not be cash flowing positive), and have been in business two to three years. When advising individuals on making private investments, we always prefer second stage companies to first stage startup ventures. Private investors typically provide these companies with money to “fuel the fire” by enabling expansion, sales growth, and entry into new markets. Investing in second stage companies can be just as lucrative as first stage, with significantly less risk. This is all a moot point for most investors though, as most second stage companies seek “professional” venture capital firms, the debt markets, or deal with networks of ultra-high net worth individuals. However, occasionally a good opportunity is found that is open to smaller retail investors. These opportunities normally emerge because the company seeking second stage funding seeks amounts under $5m and does not want to cede the level of control that VC firms require. Our subscribers have just such an opportunity, if they are interested. New Avenue, Inc. is a Silicon Valley technology firm that seeks to address many of the problems individuals may encounter when building or remodeling a private home. This is often a monumental, time consuming, and expensive process for any individual. Finding and vetting architects, contractors, and subcontractors can be a time consuming and risky proposition. Most individuals have never negotiated the complicated contracts at issue. Ensuring that the consumer is getting a good price and good service can promote anxiety and lead to loss of time and money. Managing the project itself creates another layer of difficulty. New Avenue address all of these issues. It has created a system and network for architecture and contracting. The company has built a network of vetted architects and contractors, a system that automates project management and payment, and pre-negotiated consumer friendly contracts and agreements. The Open Table like booking and collaboration system reduces project costs from 10% to 30% by reducing time, mistakes, and risks. Other contractors are frequently at least 40% more expensive. Lorintine Capital has partnered with New Avenue to assist this second stage company in its second stage of growth. They already have a product, revenue, and a platform and seek to expand into new markets and propel sales. Their ultimate goal is to be one of the largest residential builders in the country with a $1b valuation in under five years. Due to their strong momentum and current growth projections New Avenue is avoiding current “traditional” Silicon Valley venture capital firms, which typically require larger infusions of cash than New Avenue needs and demand extensive controls over the firm. New Avenue is currently seeking $4,000,000 in investment and is taking investments as low as $50,000.00. It can take up to 35 non-accredited investors. This cash infusion will cover the next two years of the Company, which should be cash flow positive well before that point. This is a unique investment opportunity not often available to “smaller” investors. As the amount they are seeking is lower than is normal, they are able to target individual investors, as opposed to corporate. Investing in a private company such as New Avenue carries much more risk than simply investing in stock indexes. Lorintine Capital has done what it can to reduce some of those risks by insisting on a board seat or observer rights at all board meetings, reviewing the books, technology, and performing additional due diligence already, performing a site visit, reviewing existing projects, and will stay involved with New Avenue for the foreseeable future. We view the risk of investing in such a project to be less than almost any first stage investment and less than most second stage investments. But there is no guarantee of return. We are making an investment in New Avenue ourselves. Because of the risk of this style of investment, we do not advocate committing a significant amount of your capital to it. A full investment overview is outside the scope of this article, but the full overview can be found at: http://www.lorintine.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/Offering-Overview.pdf Or if you’d like to discuss this potential investment, please contact Christopher Welsh at: Christopher Welsh Lorintine Capital E: cwelsh@lorintinecapital.com P: 214-800-5164
  25. @songlake68 I would recommend reading the "Must read topics" on the right side of the main forum page. Specifically, Short Strangles topic presents the case why we use the short strangles to hedge our straddles. The main idea is to reduce the risk by trying to offset the negative theta of the straddles, which also allows us to open those trades much earlier than we used to, and to do more trades. In some cases opening straddle only would work better than straddle only (like the latest MSFT and BUD trades), but it also increases the risk. Those strangles are not naked - they are covered by the straddles, so I don't see why they cannot be used in TFSA and RRSP accounts
  26. Hi Kim I am a new member and would like to apply your trades in my TFSA and RRSP accounts. After I got a membership this morning, I quickly reviewed all the trades you posted in https://steadyoptions.com/forums/forum/10-steadyoptions-trades/ It seems that you use much less unhedged straddles/strangles than before: Before Feb 2015, 65% of your trades were unhedged straddles/strangles. After Feb 2015, the percentage dropped to 26%. In 2018, until now, you made about 100 trades. There were only 17 trades were unhedged straddles/strangles. (Please see the attached Excel spreadsheet for these percentages.) My questions are: 1. Does that mean you think the risk/profit of unhedged straddles/strangles is not attractive anymore? If yes, what is the reason? 2. If not, may I apply those hedged straddles/strangles without the hedge legs (removing the option selling legs)? If that works, I can do half of your trades in my reg accounts - it is still OK. If that does not work, that means I can do only 17% of your trades in my reg accounts - too less. Thank you! Book1.xlsx
  27. Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    I can personally add The Netherlands to this list, since I succeeded in opening a Tradier account from the Netherlands
  28. Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    @SBatch @Christof+ @zxcv64 and to anyone else interested, Tradier has finally responded to my email and confirmed they offer accounts in Germany, France and Spain at this time. Please note I only asked about EC block countries so if you live in Europe and your country is not part of the EC you might want to contact them to confirm.
  29. Podcasts

    Ha, no, Glidewell has a distinct liberal slant, but I enjoyed it anyway - but for that. I don't think anyone would call me liberal. Libertarian MAYBE, but much more likely a very conservative libertarian.
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