SteadyOptions is an options trading forum where you can find solutions from top options traders. TRY IT FREE!

We’ve all been there… researching options strategies and unable to find the answers we’re looking for. SteadyOptions has your solution.

All Activity

This stream auto-updates     

  1. Yesterday
  2. Bull3t007

    Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    Thats a real bummer, I hope they will fix this. I still can't open the app. Even the tradier dashboard via mobile gives me errors sometimes when modifying orders. I was out last night and had to guess whether I would be able to close the DOCU trade. I enjoy the low commision but they really have to step up their mobile game if they want to stay competitive.
  3. agsb

    Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    I can use the Tradehawk android app. However, it seems totally useless. It appears to be impossible to change the price of an existing order. Unlike with their browser interface Dash, you cannot select existing positions to close them. Next month I'm dropping Tradehawk and going back to using pure Tradier.
  4. Last week
  5. For anyone interested here is a lightweight tool for plotting real-time and historical intraday RV values. Download: bit.ly/rt-rv Short video on major features: bit.ly/rt-rv-v This tool is provided for free for your convenience. It is excel based and uses Interactive Brokers API for real-time data (follow instructions on download page). Feel free to download and use it. It works completely independent of any chartaffair subscription. However, if you happen to have a valid chartaffair premium subscription it will additionally produce up-to-date earnings data through the chartaffair API. The test key included will work for a few days from now. The VBA code inside is 100% open and accessible and anyone wanting to is invited to modify and repost it (f.e. to add more brokers).
  6. Michael C. Thomsett

    Probability and Option Risk

    These conclusions reveal how maximum profit and loss are calculated and aid in deciding which strategies are good fits for your risk tolerance. Does risk level justify the trade? That is where most options traders begin to address probability. But most often overlooked in selection of an underlying for options trading or for a strategy to be used, is the comparison between probability and risk. Too many traders consider these as the same thing. If probability of profitable outcome is high, it must mean risk is low, and vice versa. Most options traders make this assumption intuitively. Based on proximity of price to the money, time to expiration, and relative status of long or short positions, probability and risk are well known. But what about the correlation between the two, probability and risk? Probability often is the result of a calculation and may be viewed in isolation; the true risk level might not be considered at all, or simply assumed to be conclusive based on what probability reveals. This is a mistake. The correlation of probability and risk Once you decide a strategy is “low risk” what comes next? You might overlook a related next step, the possibility that risk changes once probability increases or decreases. A simplified example is how the probability of a profitable outcome changes when the underline moves unexpectedly close to the money. Does this mean risk is higher or lower? It might. But the point – comparing evolving probability and risk – could also be more subtle. Here is an example: A trader likes short puts because the market risk is identical to that of a covered call. Opening a series of short-term, slightly OTM short puts produces profits consistently and exercise is avoided by early close or rolling forward. But what if the company will be announcing earnings the day before last trading day? What if the company has a history of double-digit earnings surprises? Does this change the probability of profitable outcome? And does that make the risk picture entirely different as well? Yes. Of course, but the degree of risk in holding onto the open position with little or no “?buffer zone” point spread, also defines degrees of risk. The point is that neither probability or risk are absolute factors in judging options and their likely outcomes. There is a tendency among traders to want a binary answer. Is probability high or low? Is profitable income likely or unlikely? The answer depends on other factors like moneyness, time to expiration, historical volatility, earnings reports and likelihood of earnings surprises, and the unexpected announcement that often shows up at the worst possible time. These announcements include merger rumors, SEC investigations, accusations of financial wrongdoing by the top executive, product recalls, class action suits, strikes, natural disasters, and more – the list goes on and could be endless. Another way the correlation works addresses the problem of tied up capital and margin. If you are holding stock especially for use with covered calls, is your probability of loss low? Probably. But is the risk high? In some respects, it might be. For example, the lost opportunity risk of tying up capital for covered calls is rarely discussed by anyone. But it exists. Your capital is tied up in holding shares while you write covered calls. Probability of loss is low, but lost opportunity risk can be very high. Covered calls offer limited maximum profit equal to the premium of the covered call. Could that same amount of tied-up capital be used elsewhere to generate more attractive profits? That is a question with any number of answers, but the point is that in this situation, risk and probability coexist but may be influenced by different things. Anyone who tries to lower risk by keeping their money in low-yielding money market products has accomplished a low probability of loss, at or close to zero. At the same time, they accept a high risk of true net loss, at or close to 100%. This is so because the combination of inflation and taxes virtually guarantees that the low yield on savings cannot produce an after-inflation, after-tax profit. This paradox is real-world stuff, not just theory. It is possible to combine low probability of loss with high risk of loss, in the same product. The example of money placed in a guaranteed, low-yielding account demonstrates how this works. In the world of options, the variables are more complex, but the same point must be made. In options trades, you can lower the risk of loss while improving the probability of profits. For example, if you time trades for those rare moments when the Bollinger Bands exceeds upper or lower band by three standard deviations, the probability of an immediate reversal is close to 100% because the range never remains that far from the center line for long. If you time covered calls for the Friday one week before expiration, you drastically reduce risk because options lose one-third of remaining time value in the one trading day (but three calendar days) between Friday and Monday or expiration week. Does this mean it is possible to set up a foolproof system to make a profit consistently? No, that is never possible. But it does mean something almost as promising: By understanding the events and timing that affect probability, the risk of loss is drastically reduced. Most options traders will agree that this is good enough, given all those variables that tend to get in the way of every “perfect” system ever devised. Michael C. Thomsett is a widely published author with over 80 business and investing books, including the best-selling Getting Started in Options, coming out in its 10th edition later this year. He also wrote the recently released The Mathematics of Options. Thomsett is a frequent speaker at trade shows and blogs on his website at Thomsett Guide as well as on Seeking Alpha, LinkedIn, Twitter and Facebook. Related articles Is Your Risk Worth The Reward? Risk Reward Or Probability Of Success? Calculating The Probability Of Option Payoff Option Payoff Probability Probability And Option Risk
  7. Earlier
  8. Debby_Tompkins

    Brokers and commissions

    Hello Kim, The information you provided is very informative, thanks a lot. As I'm new to this forum it looks like I am at the right place. Thanks
  9. Matei

    SPX Calendar Spreads: Historical P&L Levels

    Thank you for the interesting article. Were there years in which the the calendar spreads have performed particularly worse than the average?
  10. rigulator

    Using ORATS in Anchor Testing

    This is great stuff, thank you!
  11. CJ912

    Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    Same issue here
  12. Bull3t007

    Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    Anyone using the Tradehawk platform that is able to use the android app? Mine directly crashes after authenthicating.
  13. I will check with them today. I'm using Tradehawk through Tradier and they are always adding stuff but maybe Tradier has it as well. Thanks again for the direction.
  14. I will check with them today. I'm using Tradehawk through Tradier and they are always adding stuff but maybe Tradier has it as well. Thanks again for the direction.
  15. Instead of documenting manually, you should at least be able to draw intraday prices of option combos a few days back (I only know IB)? I know Tradier has a quite good REST API, it should not be hard to extend my work for that API.
  16. thanks for the quick response @Christof+. Unfortunately, I am using Tradier and not IB. But I will try to document manually over a few day. Just a little more time consuming.
  17. Hi @J Carter thank you for your kind words and welcome! Glad you find it useful! You are correct that RV charts show 'only' day end data (more exact mid of latest bid and ask). The problem around highs and lows in options prices is that there are mostly too little actual trades happening in one specific option to draw a meaningful chart from. Bid and ask spreads on the other hand fluctuate widely especially during the opening, which makes it a hard endeavor to derive useful intraday highs and lows. What will be useful is to actually draw intraday prices over the course of the day. And it is really remarkable that you post that just now as I am just finishing and preparing to release a tool free for anyone to draw them either today or tomorrow! (it will use chartaffair API to fetch data but it will basically work even without a valid chartaffair subscription. It will be free for the community. You will need however API access to interactive brokers to make it work).
  18. I have a question I hope someone can help me with. I just joined Chartaffair and love the data you get from it. Really helps with the SO trades. Here's my question. The graphs are great for day to day views, but is there anyway to see the "highs & lows" of a calendar or straddle by each day? I've seen some post charts like this on the SO blogs, but not sure if Chartaffairs has that ability. I'd love to be able to see the highs & lows of a calendar over the past 20, 30 days or whatever. I think this would be helpful for doing multiple iterations of a calendar trade. I hope Chartaffairs has this but maybe I'm just not seeing it? Thanks in advance for responses
  19. skydragon

    Brokers and commissions

    Looks like it's official https://www.amtd.com/news-and-stories/press-releases/press-release-details/2019/acquisition-information-center/default.aspx
  20. Usually yes. With ES we're actually trading closer in. I'll add a note to our write-up on how we trade this. The issue with ES is that all of the liquidity is in the front month. As long as we're at the money I've been letting this one get a bit closer than 30 days.
  21. cato1974

    Welcome to Steady Futures

    Great.. Thank you! One more question.. Do we just use the next furthest underlying futures expiry month? ie March for ES
  22. We generally try to go further than 37 days out. Right now we're trading the Jan 20 Options for most contracts. If you go beyond 37 days though and target spreads for the right delta you'll be ok.
  23. RapperT

    Welcome to Steady Futures

    Yes. Usually they are posted in the am but due to travel today I will be posting shortly once I get to airport.
  24. cato1974

    Welcome to Steady Futures

    Hello, I'm new to the service and have seen this morning's update. I was wondering if expiry dates will be posted later so I'm able to enter all positions at the appropriate delta for each spread. Thanks
  25. rasar

    Brokers and commissions

    Schwab buying TD Ameritrade: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-td-ameritrade-m-a-charles-schwab/charles-schwab-in-talks-to-buy-smaller-rival-td-ameritrade-cnbc-idUSKBN1XV16S It's going to be interesting to see their plans for ToS.
  26. tribalblu

    eOption Brokerage Special Offer

    Is anyone on their brokerage? Seems cheaper than tastyworks.
  27. JerryT

    CMLviz Trade Machine

    I have support on the whitelist and I had received responses from them in the past. I'll just try again. Thanks.
  28. Ophir Gottlieb

    CMLviz Trade Machine

    There is no such thing as support not getting back to you. Check your spam folders.
  1. Load more activity