CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

[Sirion]

2 hours ago, Sirion said:

Closing INTU at some point today. Earnings AC.

Closed position at 3.80, juuust under 40% after commissions. 

[greenspan76]

3 hours ago, greenspan76 said:

@siddharth310584 I closed ADI a couple minutes ago when it hit my 40% profit target. Had the 92.5 Dec15 Call... In $1.46, out $2.10, ~43% gain after commissions

Of course, you might not want to follow what I do - I'm seeing a bid of $3.20 right now on this one...

[siddharth]

Just now, greenspan76 said:

Of course, you might not want to follow what I do - I'm seeing a bid of $3.20 right now on this one...

I did tho    But regardless, I. Always be happy to exit because my profit target is reached.  No complaints here  

[clems]

is there a reason why most of you are just exiting rather than setting a super tight stop-loss? Especially for these options we're expecting to run, setting a hard limit on gains seems like you are chopping your knees off. I could have closed ADI for a 40% gain early in the day, but instead I'm booking nearly 400% because I just keep rolling up my stop loss until it took a big enough dip to get hit.

Same thing on INTU, just not nearly the same extent.

Just a newbie asking an honest question.  Not judging styles, just curious if I'm missing something.

[greenspan76]

31 minutes ago, clems said:

is there a reason why most of you are just exiting rather than setting a super tight stop-loss? Especially for these options we're expecting to run, setting a hard limit on gains seems like you are chopping your knees off. I could have closed ADI for a 40% gain early in the day, but instead I'm booking nearly 400% because I just keep rolling up my stop loss until it took a big enough dip to get hit.

Same thing on INTU, just not nearly the same extent.

Just a newbie asking an honest question.  Not judging styles, just curious if I'm missing something.

I don't like stop losses because they result in market orders when triggered. You might say stop limits would work, but they can end up being triggered, but never executing. In addition, a lot of these trades have wide spreads unless/until they are in the money (and sometimes even when they are in the money). That said, it seems reasonable to me for a trade you're going to close at some point during the day. If you're talking about overnight, though, you run into potential problems with a gap down in the market (or just in that stock) and not getting the gains you thought you'd "locked in" with your stop loss order. 

[clems]

Can definitely sympathize with the overnight.  If I had big gains, I'd likely close overnight as well.

In regards to the market order, I know that you won't get exactly what your stop is set at.  But aren't you ok accepting only 30% (assuming a market order at your 40% limit price would only end up netting you 30%) for the chance at 400%?  You still end up with 30% and soooo many of these have ended up running well past 40% if they get there.

Thank you for your insight!

[NikTam]

1 hour ago, clems said:

is there a reason why most of you are just exiting rather than setting a super tight stop-loss? Especially for these options we're expecting to run, setting a hard limit on gains seems like you are chopping your knees off. I could have closed ADI for a 40% gain early in the day, but instead I'm booking nearly 400% because I just keep rolling up my stop loss until it took a big enough dip to get hit.

Same thing on INTU, just not nearly the same extent.

Just a newbie asking an honest question.  Not judging styles, just curious if I'm missing something.

400%?  What was your entry and exit prices?  My best price several days ago was 1.35, it's now trading at 2.95 -- that's an 118% increase gross of fees.  (I exited at 1.90 for a 40% gain -- 40% is my typical GTC exit price)

[Sirion]

1 hour ago, clems said:

is there a reason why most of you are just exiting rather than setting a super tight stop-loss? Especially for these options we're expecting to run, setting a hard limit on gains seems like you are chopping your knees off. I could have closed ADI for a 40% gain early in the day, but instead I'm booking nearly 400% because I just keep rolling up my stop loss until it took a big enough dip to get hit.

Same thing on INTU, just not nearly the same extent.

Just a newbie asking an honest question.  Not judging styles, just curious if I'm missing something.

Technically, if you want to follow the back-test formula, you will enter at EOD, and then close at EOD if profit >40% or loss >30/40%(depending on the back-test). 

 

Personally, I will set a profit target if I'm not able to actively check in for a given period of time (hour or two), and otherwise come back and take a look, but generally take the win at 40%. 

 

Sometimes you'll continue running up, sometimes you'll wait for a bigger win and watch your profits evaporate entirely. Honestly, now that I think about it, we should probably evaluate the value of a target gain on each underlying. If it increases the win-rate significantly, set it and follow it religiously. If not, let it ride (or profit take in steps, letting some amount of principle ride).

I'd be interested in hearing thoughts. 

 

@krisbee

I missed getting filled on your original note (by minutes! ) but went ahead and bought a dip later on, just got GTC'd out at 40% profit on the Dec 1 21.5 call at .70, looks like it's already gone for .75 right before close. Thanks! Can't regret not forcing the buy for .35 for too long. 

[NikTam]

INTU -- 15 DEC 155 Call.  Exited balance of position at 6.40 for 22% net gain.

 

(Not altogether true:  I held back one contract to try my luck post earnings -- since it was 15 DEC and in the money at 155.  I will probably regret!)

Edited November 20, 2017 by NikTam

[NikTam]

5 minutes ago, Sirion said:

Technically, if you want to follow the back-test formula, you will enter at EOD, and then close at EOD if profit >40% or loss >30/40%(depending on the back-test). 

 

Personally, I will set a profit target if I'm not able to actively check in for a given period of time (hour or two), and otherwise come back and take a look, but generally take the win at 40%. 

 

Sometimes you'll continue running up, sometimes you'll wait for a bigger win and watch your profits evaporate entirely. Honestly, now that I think about it, we should probably evaluate the value of a target gain on each underlying. If it increases the win-rate significantly, set it and follow it religiously. If not, let it ride (or profit take in steps, letting some amount of principle ride).

I'd be interested in hearing thoughts. 

 

When I do the back-testing I look at difference in profitability by comparing 0%, 25% and 40% stop loss.  If profitability doesn't suffer too much with a stop loss, then I use it.  Same thing with gain -- I test for 40% gain vs. unlimited.

[clems]

36 minutes ago, NikTam said:

400%?  What was your entry and exit prices?  My best price several days ago was 1.35, it's now trading at 2.95 -- that's an 118% increase gross of fees.  (I exited at 1.90 for a 40% gain -- 40% is my typical GTC exit price)

I apologize. I was between stuff at work and glanced at my numbers.  I had lopsided entry/exit numbers.  I ended up with 76% gain (entry 1.73, exited 3.06.) on my ADI trade.  My point still stands.

[NikTam]

@clems  Still a very excellent result.  I think what you're suggesting is use of a trailing stop.  I've had my issues with Stop Loss exits but recently found that setting the Stop a little above a Limit price helps.  (On TOS platform it will default to the same price for Stop and Limit.)

[krisbee]

5 hours ago, krisbee said:

stock: MRVL

Earnings: 11/28/2017

I'm planning to enter 30 delta call if it meets my limit order. Either today or tomorrow.

 

Got few for 30cents

    BOT    MRVL Dec01'17 21 CALL    0.30    USD    CBOE2    10:45:39   
 

just noticed MID is around 1.20+.   

[NikTam]

37 minutes ago, krisbee said:

just noticed MID is around 1.20+.   

This stock had a massive daily candle. The Cavium purchase must be fueling it.

Edited November 20, 2017 by NikTam

[apsoccermd]

Looks like some really impressive results lately with cmlviz .. From what i understand, a lot of ideas come from "Market Insights" section and some custom backrests .. Are you guys using the Cmlviz "Pro" for trade ideas or mainly focused on posts on cmlviz tm site?

 

Thanks

 

 

 

[NikTam]

Some of both!

[apsoccermd]

7 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Some of both!

Also, 

I am trying to nail down all the products they offer (slightly confusing) , want to see who is using what and how: 

1) https://pro.cmlviz.com  - $19 with current promo.. looks like research and some ideas posts.. no back tests.. to me this has limited value.

2) https://tm1.cmlviz.com/  - Trade Machine / Backtests with "Market Insights" Ideas..  $49 with promotion...   This is what I currently have... Very happy with it.. used it for few ideas, but not to the extend like most of you ... 

3) CML TradeMachine PRO   - looks like enhanced Trade Machine / backtest product..Currently $69 with promo..  Has anyone used it? Is it worth extra money? What more  does it offer over vanilla  TradeMachine. By a quick glance, this looks like  vanilla with some more pre-sets.. 

Am i missing anymore "products"?

Any feedback and information  is appreciated.. 

 

[NikTam]

You may want the $69 Pro.  It includes the ProScan feature which for me is the real value.  I’m sure there’s a video that shows its functionality.  You can screen hundreds of stocks by option strategies.  

Edited November 21, 2017 by NikTam

[greenspan76]

7 hours ago, clems said:

Can definitely sympathize with the overnight.  If I had big gains, I'd likely close overnight as well.

In regards to the market order, I know that you won't get exactly what your stop is set at.  But aren't you ok accepting only 30% (assuming a market order at your 40% limit price would only end up netting you 30%) for the chance at 400%?  You still end up with 30% and soooo many of these have ended up running well past 40% if they get there.

Thank you for your insight!

I see your point, but am skeptical that you'll have many trades with such a huge difference between taking your target profit vs waiting until later that day. I think a fairer comparison is something like: "am I willing to potentially give up 5-10% gains on many trades vs making 20-30% more gains on occasion?" and my general tendency is to believe you'll be stopped out most of the time and your occasional gains will not overcome the unrealized gains you gave up on a stop loss while hoping for more. BUT, I did give serious consideration to actually following the CML plan of waiting until the EOD to determine whether the gains meet the profit target, and that is basically a more aggressive form of your plan, so perhaps your idea would be great for this style of trading. Either way, I can't guarantee I'll be available at EOD, so I rejected the CML way and am happy just setting a GTC profit target and moving on.

[siddharth]

Below are the charts for absolute stock price change for wday.

@krisbee, would you get into this trade now because the stock price is trending up for the next few days ?

 

[krisbee]

7 hours ago, siddharth310584 said:

Below are the charts for absolute stock price change for wday.

@krisbee, would you get into this trade now because the stock price is trending up for the next few days ?

 

i wouldn't be doing this.

[siddharth]

Could you explain why ? I’m trying to determine using cml as a backdrop whether I should enter the trades.  

[Sirion]

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11801&app=news&cml_article_id=20171110_intelligent-options-trading-right-after-earnings-in-target-corporation&source=TM_insights

Thoughts on entering this late given the downward move the stock has made since the "official" entry?

[krisbee]

stock: MOMO

Earnings: 11/28/2017

I'm planning to enter sometime today depending on the trend. yesterday it was bearish. We have 2.5 tradings left with weekend and thanksgiving holidays.

Let's see how this one goes.

[krisbee]

43 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: MOMO

Earnings: 11/28/2017

I'm planning to enter sometime today depending on the trend. yesterday it was bearish. We have 2.5 tradings left with weekend and thanksgiving holidays.

Let's see how this one goes.

    BOT    MOMO Dec01'17 34 CALL    1.20    USD    BATS    09:53:17   
 

Fewer than usual positions. (as it's going down...)

[greenspan76]

Closed out MRVL this morning on a GTC order. In 23.5 Dec8 call yesterday for $0.80 near end of day. Out this morning for $1.10, a gain of 34% after commissions. I noticed that the price had a quick spike up, then almost immediate pullback after my order executed. Even so, those who got in before me are probably sitting on very nice gains.

Edited November 22, 2017 by greenspan76

[NikTam]

On 11/21/2017 at 9:32 AM, Sirion said:

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11801&app=news&cml_article_id=20171110_intelligent-options-trading-right-after-earnings-in-target-corporation&source=TM_insights

Thoughts on entering this late given the downward move the stock has made since the "official" entry?

@Sirion I don't think it's too late.  Looking at the Thinkback on TOS the EOD price on a 56/50 spread is back at .83 today which is exactly the same as EOD on the 17th.  Basically you want to see a steady trend sideways or upward to take advantage of either/or gamma and theta so that the position can be bought back to cover at a cheaper price.  But as has been pointed out the risk to reward ratio is daunting -- in this case 1:4 ($83 premium received with risk of $517 loss).  So one loss can wipe out a lot of prospective wins.  That tells me that a tight Stop Loss is a must -- but in a period of volatility that creates it's own problems.  Plus the profitability is 16% maximum -- 83/517 of margin used.  (Others can correct me on this if I'm wrong with this calculation of profitability).  The spread is going to cost something to buy back so it will be something less than 16%.   Obviously, I am not annualizing this result to get the same or similar number that Ophir indicates.

 

Bottom line for me: It's a longer play needing careful management and I'm not blown away by the profit potential.  I will stay away unless someone can convince me otherwise.

Edited November 22, 2017 by NikTam

[cuegis]

5 hours ago, NikTam said:

@Sirion I don't think it's too late.  Looking at the Thinkback on TOS the EOD price on a 56/50 spread is back at .83 today which is exactly the same as EOD on the 17th.  Basically you want to see a steady trend sideways or upward to take advantage of either/or gamma and theta so that the position can be bought back to cover at a cheaper price.  But as has been pointed out the risk to reward ratio is daunting -- in this case 1:4 ($83 premium received with risk of $517 loss).  So one loss can wipe out a lot of prospective wins.  That tells me that a tight Stop Loss is a must -- but in a period of volatility that creates it's own problems.  Plus the profitability is 16% maximum -- 83/517 of margin used.  (Others can correct me on this if I'm wrong with this calculation of profitability).  The spread is going to cost something to buy back so it will be something less than 16%.   Obviously, I am not annualizing this result to get the same or similar number that Ophir indicates.

 

Bottom line for me: It's a longer play needing careful management and I'm not blown away by the profit potential.  I will stay away unless someone can convince me otherwise.

I couldn't agree more. There is a big world, full of opportunities and, I'm assuming, not unlimited capital to explore these ideas.

With that in mind, this does not scream out as a priority.

[greenspan76]

On 11/21/2017 at 9:32 AM, Sirion said:

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11801&app=news&cml_article_id=20171110_intelligent-options-trading-right-after-earnings-in-target-corporation&source=TM_insights

Thoughts on entering this late given the downward move the stock has made since the "official" entry?

Sorry, a bit late to respond, but I overlooked this post until I saw @NikTam's response. I am still somewhat wary of the put spreads with a lopsided risk/reward ratio because our thesis is that recent trends will continue until they don't, and I'm afraid the time they don't will be a near complete loss. That's probably fine when you're risking $1 to make $1, but the more you risk to make $1, the riskier the overall trade profile becomes. The way I've been dealing with it so far is if the trade details look good, I'm willing to go as high as about 3.5:1 risk:reward ratio. Some might think that's too much and I do consider it pretty aggressive. So far, I've traded 23 short put spreads with an average gain of 5.6% without using stops or profit targets (there was one 73% loss in there). Whenever the market trend of continually grinding higher changes, I'll drop these trades first.

 

Anyway, I opened this TGT trade on the 17th using a Dec22 56/53 short put spread for $0.68. That gives me a $0.68 / ($3 - $0.68) = 29.3% max profit potential, which is about a 3.4:1 risk:reward ratio and that was the absolute lowest price I would have taken for the spread. Hopefully that at least helps give you some context.

[NikTam]

@cuegis@greenspan76 thank you for your comments - always helpful!  

Since earnings are tailing off I will complete and post my spreadsheet of P.E. Momentum trades this weekend.  I suspect that others have already surpassed my volume of these trades.  Any shared result tallies for November would be very welcome.  

[apsoccermd]

20 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@cuegis@greenspan76 thank you for your comments - always helpful!  

Since earnings are tailing off I will complete and post my spreadsheet of P.E. Momentum trades this weekend.  I suspect that others have already surpassed my volume of these trades.  Any shared result tallies for November would be very welcome.  

Sounds amazing.. If its not to much to ask , can you also put what TM strategy u have used and if you have a link to it.. I am curious to see what has been working. 

[zxcv64]

I've signed up to CML a few days ago and am enjoying the searches. 

Can someone pls help me understand how their 'Risked' value is calculated? I've read the online blurb at https://tm2.cmlviz.com/faq/amount_risked.php?source=TM_insights.

In particular I'm looking at the results for buying a put spread every week for the VXX, and the link above says :

"Buying Options or Option Spreads 
The amount risked is the cost of the option or the spread. "

 

I ran a 1-year long put spread search, and so I added the cost of the 52 spreads bought, and thought the average of this may be the risked figure, but nope. I've downloaded the results into Excel and figured out where all the other numbers come from (eg. No of wins/losses; Gross Gain/Loss etc etc) but the 'Risked' figure is baffling me. 

 

Edited November 24, 2017 by zxcv64

[krisbee]

On 11/22/2017 at 9:58 AM, krisbee said:

    BOT    MOMO Dec01'17 34 CALL    1.20    USD    BATS    09:53:17   
 

Fewer than usual positions. (as it's going down...)

Closed for 7% profit. 

 

 

This makes 8th successful CML trades (8 out of 😎

MAR, NVDA, AMAT, ADI, INTU, THO, MRVL, MOMO

 

 

[krisbee]

Someone who has CML backtest the VMW call entry today? Earnings on 11/30/2017

looks good in stock movement chart in one direction.

[zxcv64]

@krisbee, here you go.

Buy calls 6 calendar days before earnings and close 1 day before. Based on 3 years and 15 days to expiry options.

 

[Sirion]

9 minutes ago, krisbee said:

Someone who has CML backtest the VMW call entry today? Earnings on 11/30/2017

looks good in stock movement chart in one direction.

Hmm. Not bad. 5-2, but very small losses relative. 

Expiration: 10 Days
Risked: $162 
Total Return: $332 
% Return:205%
Avg % Return:30.4%
Commissions:-
% Wins:71.4%
Wins: 5Losses: 2
Avg Win: $71Avg Loss: ‑$12
Avg % Win: 45.9%Avg % Loss: -8.3%
Gross Gain: $356Gross Loss: ‑$24

 

Open today (6 days before earnings) close day of earnings. Similar results for entries closer in. 

 

Edit: Going 3 year adds a couple of bigger losers with my setup. 

Edited November 24, 2017 by Sirion

[krisbee]

1 minute ago, zxcv64 said:

@krisbee, here you go.

Buy calls 6 calendar days before earnings and close 1 day before. Based on 3 years and 15 days to expiry options.

 

Thanks, not interesting to enter.  

[Djtux]

11 minutes ago, krisbee said:

Someone who has CML backtest the VMW call entry today? Earnings on 11/30/2017

looks good in stock movement chart in one direction.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171124081502_Jt6638BAEoCdlcJH

[Dan27]

I've been doing a number of trades that I've discovered on the Trade Machine, including a lot of the bullish call trades around earnings. One thing I'm mulling over is what, if anything, to do when a trade has made a good move, but not to my exit point.

For example, I'm in the THO trade right now and it's been going between 15-25% gain. I'm aiming to get out at 40%. I've toyed with the idea of, after a decent move like this, buying puts to cushion the blow if the trade reverses. Yes, I lose some upside gain if the stock continues higher, and I risk additional theta loss. Wondering if anyone does this or has thoughts on if it's worthwhile.

I trade these directional trades at 1/2 the amount I risk in a deta-neutral trade - so I'm already reducing my risk that way.

Thanks.

Dan

[cuegis]

14 minutes ago, Dan27 said:

I've been doing a number of trades that I've discovered on the Trade Machine, including a lot of the bullish call trades around earnings. One thing I'm mulling over is what, if anything, to do when a trade has made a good move, but not to my exit point.

For example, I'm in the THO trade right now and it's been going between 15-25% gain. I'm aiming to get out at 40%. I've toyed with the idea of, after a decent move like this, buying puts to cushion the blow if the trade reverses. Yes, I lose some upside gain if the stock continues higher, and I risk additional theta loss. Wondering if anyone does this or has thoughts on if it's worthwhile.

I trade these directional trades at 1/2 the amount I risk in a deta-neutral trade - so I'm already reducing my risk that way.

Thanks.

Dan

As the market rises, sell off a few at a time, as spikes of demand come into the market.

You'll lock in some early gains, and still have some ammo in your bag, to let go of, if/when further rises take place.

Always remember, it's not a black and white situation.

You never have to be "all in" or "all out".

If , for example, there is an early spike higher, and you sell off 20%, then the price pulls back, now you have that (profit) cash sitting around, to buy back some of it on a dip.

Just stay on the "other" side of the crowd.

[cuegis]

1 hour ago, krisbee said:

Someone who has CML backtest the VMW call entry today? Earnings on 11/30/2017

looks good in stock movement chart in one direction.

Yes it does!

It opened lower after a 3 day pullback, then crossed over into positive territory.

It looks like the end of a 3 day correction.

Also, if it were to close right now, you have a bar with the open and close at/near the high of the day....another sign of the end of a correction.

[cuegis]

I'm trying to buy this thing but, it SO illiquid.

The only option on the board with a reasonable bid/ask, is the Jan 130 , which is 2.60 / 2.70 ...everything else in Dec and Jan monthlies, have .30-50 cent wide markets.

I wanted the Jan 125/130, but even that is 1.90 / 2.20.

I put in a 2.05 bid for a 1 lot , to test the waters, and nothing.

I don't mind buying Dec 15 before a weekend because earning IV increase should offset weekend decay. But, the Dec 15's are even less liquid than the Jan's

[cuegis]

I bought the Jan (monthly) 130's for $2.70....now it is 2.60 / 3.40 , with the stock at 124.31

[cuegis]

I'm offering the Dec 132's for $1.35.

That would be a great spread, if I can get the sale off.

I'm buying 24 IV and selling 32 IV

 

That's strange... the stock is up .70 and the Dec 132's are basically unchanged

Edited November 24, 2017 by cuegis

[NikTam]

I am thinking that one approach to the Post-Earnings Iron Condor short put trades (selling premium -- so it's a put credit spread) would be to calculate the risk/reward you're willing to accept based on the spread and then enter a GTC order at that amount.  Then wait for a day in the market when the price goes down enough -- perhaps based on overall daily market slump --to hit your price.  It would need to occur early enough in the cycle (these trades are typically about 28-30 days in duration) to provide time for recovery -- reversion to the mean -- and then ongoing theta and/or positive gamma can take over.  You would first do the Trade Machine scan for something 75% or higher for candidates, and then wait for a market "hiccup" to get you the entry.  For instance, on 10 contract trade,  if the spread is 4 points ($4000 risked) and you could get $1.00 per contract or $1000, your total net risk is $3000.  So this would be a 1:3  reward to risk  No doubt there would be a lot of missed entries, but the odd one that hit would be a much safer trade than the 1:4 or even 1:5 ratio that is more common.

Comments and criticisms welcome.

[cuegis]

I wanted to ask a question about the "Discover" suggestions, and went to the "General" non-member thread for Trade Machine, but it seems as if it has been closed. It will not allow me to write in a new box.

So, I will throw out the question here, as it is the closest place I can find that is relevant.

I have read all of the Discover suggestions, as they come up and, it seems that a majority of them are pointing out the 3 day , pre earnings upward momentum, strategy.

They mention in the beginning, that they came across this , most recent one, through a "strategy scan", in the Pro Scan section, using typically Nasdaq 100, or s&p 500 to scan through.

The most recent article on ORCL, says that they discovered it through the scan I just mentioned.

My question is, the same exact scan produced a list of 100% winners, with stocks that have equal to, or greater liquidity, and better returns, doing the same strategy.

Why pick only ORCL, when there are much better results from, for example...NFLX 8 wins/0 losses, 127% return, and many others that show better returns, 100% wins, and 3 year (as opposed to 2 year) winning streaks?

 

[NikTam]

23 hours ago, cuegis said:

I wanted to ask a question about the "Discover" suggestions, and went to the "General" non-member thread for Trade Machine, but it seems as if it has been closed. It will not allow me to write in a new box.

So, I will throw out the question here, as it is the closest place I can find that is relevant.

I have read all of the Discover suggestions, as they come up and, it seems that a majority of them are pointing out the 3 day , pre earnings upward momentum, strategy.

They mention in the beginning, that they came across this , most recent one, through a "strategy scan", in the Pro Scan section, using typically Nasdaq 100, or s&p 500 to scan through.

The most recent article on ORCL, says that they discovered it through the scan I just mentioned.

My question is, the same exact scan produced a list of 100% winners, with stocks that have equal to, or greater liquidity, and better returns, doing the same strategy.

Why pick only ORCL, when there are much better results from, for example...NFLX 8 wins/0 losses, 127% return, and many others that show better returns, 100% wins, and 3 year (as opposed to 2 year) winning streaks?

 

@cuegisThat is a very good question and I don't know the answer.  I would suggest an email to support@cmlviz.com -- they're very prompt in responding.

[cuegis]

14 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@cuegisThat is a very good question and I don't know the answer.  I would suggest an email to support@cmlviz.com -- they're very prompt in responding.

Ok...I just sent it off to them.....I will post their answer..

I was able to buy ORCL near the opening today, when it was down on the day.

Although I'm obviously happy about it, I still think they are painting pictures on a bull market canvass.

Whether you use their default 1-2, or 3 year look back periods, or even the custom 5 year look back, all of it has been a straight up bull market, providing the bullish undercurrent, that pushes most of these trades higher.

Whether it is the 3 day pre earnings, or 7 day, or anything else.

[NikTam]

Just now, cuegis said:

Ok...I just sent it off to them.....I will post their answer..

I was able to buy ORCL near the opening today, when it was down on the day.

Although I'm obviously happy about it, I still think they are painting pictures on a bull market canvass.

Whether you use their default 1-2, or 3 year look back periods, or even the custom 5 year look back, all of it has been a straight up bull market, providing the bullish undercurrent, that pushes most of these trades higher.

Whether it is the 3 day pre earnings, or 7 day, or anything else.

There is no doubt that this is a bull market "trading machine" -- at least the way I've been using it.  

[cuegis]

1 minute ago, NikTam said:

There is no doubt that this is a bull market "trading machine" -- at least the way I've been using it.  

Yes. Even Ophir has said, you just keep doing the same thing as long as it works. Then, eventually the day will come, either from moving into a bear market, or, just by having the strategy get too popular, even if we remain in the bull market, where it long longer works.

He said, your last trade will always be a losing trade, when you ultimately discover that a particular strategy is finished.

As long as you remain in a very small minority, it gives you an edge, even though it may not guaranty success.

Those were my thoughts.