CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

krisbee · November 27, 2017

stock: PLAY

Earnings: 12/5/2017

I'm planning to enter 20 or 30 or 40 delta calls depending on price on 11/29/2017 or little earlier.

NikTam · November 27, 2017

57 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: PLAY

Earnings: 12/5/2017

I'm planning to enter 20 or 30 or 40 delta calls depending on price on 11/29/2017 or little earlier.

It back-tests very well -- but PLAY is also in a pronounced downtrend. Also, very low interest/volume. $5 increments. Limited delta choices.

Here is link: http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171127162849_kSA3ioRrcRnaupl3

I would have a 25% stop loss -- here is link: http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171127163023_ogQ16jaKDzqAzKX1

Not a lot of difference.

Also, there is huge interest in Mid January at current $50 call(46 delta); and the back-test results actually improve a bit with the longer time to expiration of 52 days.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171127163703_6u90AayQpNumOeVb

Edited November 27, 2017 by NikTam

cuegis · November 27, 2017

6 minutes ago, NikTam said:

It back-tests very well -- but PLAY is also in a pronounced downtrend. Also, very low interest/volume. $5 increments. Limited delta choices.

Here is link: http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171127162849_kSA3ioRrcRnaupl3

I would have a 25% stop loss -- here is link: http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171127163023_ogQ16jaKDzqAzKX1

Not a lot of difference.

Also, there is huge interest in Mid January at current $50 call; and the back-test results actually improve a bit with the longer time to expiration of 52 days.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171127163703_6u90AayQpNumOeVb

I agree. The chart is looking very bad. It broke down today, from a up rising bear flag. This usually indicates the start of a new leg down, not a 1 day aberration.

But, it is what it is. Charting,and one's interpretation of it, has it's strengths and weaknesses , just like any other method.

It's also very individual.

One person might look at todays chart and see it as a great pullback opportunity to buy...and it very well might be.

Another person interprets it as a breakdown of the past week, of a bear flag, indication the start of another leg of a downtrend.

It is the least, of any approaches, to being some sort of exact science.

It's not like saying a 30 delta means there is a 30% of the stock expiring above (below) that strike, at that time.

Edited November 27, 2017 by cuegis

NikTam · November 27, 2017

5 minutes ago, cuegis said:

I agree. The chart is looking very bad. It broke down today, from a up rising bear flag. This usually indicates the start of a new leg down, not a 1 day aberration.

But, it is what it is. Charting,and one's interpretation of it, has it's strengths and weaknesses , just like any other method.

It's also very individual.

One person might look at todays chart and see it as a great pullback opportunity to buy...and it very well might be.

Another person interprets it as a breakdown of the past week, of a bear flag, indication the start of another leg of a downtrend.

It is the least, of any approaches, to being some sort of exact science.

It's not like saying a 30 delta means there is a 30% of the stock expiring above (below) that strike, at that time.

I would be very pleasantly surprised if this trade worked out. That's not the feeling I want going in. Better to be surprised that a trade didn't work out.

greenspan76 · November 27, 2017

22 minutes ago, NikTam said:

It back-tests very well -- but PLAY is also in a pronounced downtrend. Also, very low interest/volume. $5 increments. Limited delta choices.

Here is link: http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171127162849_kSA3ioRrcRnaupl3

I would have a 25% stop loss -- here is link: http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171127163023_ogQ16jaKDzqAzKX1

Not a lot of difference.

Also, there is huge interest in Mid January at current $50 call(46 delta); and the back-test results actually improve a bit with the longer time to expiration of 52 days.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171127163703_6u90AayQpNumOeVb

PLAY - I traded this one last cycle (50 delta, 7DTE, enter 3 day before earnings, exit 1 day before earnings, 40% SL/LG) http://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=c5tyVX6Rkem5aiIk. It resulted in a 28% loss. I'll probably skip this one, given the last cycle and the way things look this cycle

Edited November 27, 2017 by greenspan76

cuegis · November 27, 2017

I scanned for an unusual strategy..."7 Days Post,Long Straddle"

Near the top of the list with 100% wins, and 275% returns, 2 stuck out....DG, and PXD

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171125103933_rn3QRjr4ISIIkx10

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171125122750_uTS6jg6rV8A5HYte

They have earnings around Dec 6 and 7.

Then I looked the chart of DG,and I'm tempted to just go long now.....

Take a look, and you will understand.

On the other hand, PXD, looks like PLAY.. a breakdown today from a bear flag over the past week.

siddharth · November 27, 2017

From their newsletter, anyone in WDAY and AMBA or have thoughts about those ? They are not doing too well.

NikTam · November 27, 2017

1 hour ago, siddharth310584 said:

From their newsletter, anyone in WDAY and AMBA or have thoughts about those ? They are not doing too well.

I did not get into those trades but the daily chart patterns and indicators I use look good -- but I'm guessing you want to exit today on WDAY and there has been some bearish movement. I would back-test with 0 days before earnings (AMC on the 29th) and see if there's much difference -- if not, then maybe hold into tomorrow. AMBA earnings are AMC on the 30th.

I've not been watching the newsletter that closely and I've not had time lately to do any in-depth scans -- but the next big batch of earnings trades won't happen until late Jan and early Feb.

Edited November 27, 2017 by NikTam

greenspan76 · November 27, 2017

MOMO: Opened for $1.60. Closed for $1.10. A loss of about 32% after commissions. It would have been a gain on Friday (1 day before earnings), but I held to today (0 days until earnings). Not intentional - that was an oversight on my part.

Edited November 27, 2017 by greenspan76

NikTam · November 27, 2017

2 hours ago, greenspan76 said:

MOMO: Opened for $1.60. Closed for $1.10. A loss of about 32% after commissions. It would have been a gain on Friday (1 day before earnings), but I held to today (0 days until earnings). Not intentional - that was an oversight on my part.

I do see a lot of chop in the chart last week for MOMO as it tried to come out of a prolonged downtrend that began at the last earnings release. Not the clear signal we hope for on these momentum trades....

Edited November 27, 2017 by NikTam

greenspan76 · November 28, 2017

@NikTam Yeah, I would expect you guys to have better results than me, because I don't pay attention to the trends outside of the actual backtested results. As it stands now for me, this is still just an experiment to see if it is worth pursuing further and I'm not (intentionally) deviating much from the posted CML trades. That said, it is pretty difficult to predict both price and IV change over a 2 day pre-earnings trade, so while I can see potential value in tracking trends on the longer trades, I'm on the fence as to how much value there is in the trend for these shorter term trades. For example, I've had more than one call go up in value significantly on the last day while the underlying price stagnated or dropped slightly. I'm not sure how you can take the inherent uncertainty in trends from a technical analysis perspective combined with the inherent uncertainty in pre-earnings IV change and figure out what's actually going to happen, except to see what actually has happened in the past. So basically, I'm "trusting" the actual past results over the current trends, with the general expectation that a change in actual results means discontinuing that trade. It would be interesting to analyze trends in each of the backtested results and compare to current trends, maybe, but that's a lot of work.

Edited November 28, 2017 by greenspan76

NikTam · November 28, 2017

1 hour ago, greenspan76 said:

@NikTam Yeah, I would expect you guys to have better results than me, because I don't pay attention to the trends outside of the actual backtested results. As it stands now for me, this is still just an experiment to see if it is worth pursuing further and I'm not (intentionally) deviating much from the posted CML trades. That said, it is pretty difficult to predict both price and IV change over a 2 day pre-earnings trade, so while I can see potential value in tracking trends on the longer trades, I'm on the fence as to how much value there is in the trend for these shorter term trades. For example, I've had more than one call go up in value significantly on the last day while the underlying price stagnated or dropped slightly. I'm not sure how you can take the inherent uncertainty in trends from a technical analysis perspective combined with the inherent uncertainty in pre-earnings IV change and figure out what's actually going to happen, except to see what actually has happened in the past. So basically, I'm "trusting" the actual past results over the current trends, with the general expectation that a change in actual results means discontinuing that trade. It would be interesting to analyze trends in each of the backtested results and compare to current trends, maybe, but that's a lot of work.

I think tech indicators guys like me may have a slight edge but not by much. If the market -- or just the index -- fails for a day (or a week!) then the trade is very likely going to suffer the consequences. Number of trades and money management is the best defense.

cuegis · November 28, 2017

10 hours ago, NikTam said:

I think tech indicators guys like me may have a slight edge but not by much. If the market -- or just the index -- fails for a day (or a week!) then the trade is very likely going to suffer the consequences. Number of trades and money management is the best defense.

Charting is a funny thing.

It should not be confused with "technical analysis" per se.

I am constantly looking at the charts, but, I never use any indicators.

I just look at price, period.

What helps me the most is looking at price in different time frames.

The big picture (weekly), down to the next (Daily), and once both of those have presented a good enough picture to want to be involved, in a directional trade, I then go down to 15 min, and then 5 min. for precise timing.

I never use candlesticks, only bar charts.

I don't use any indicators because they can have the effect of "suggesting" which way the market is going to go.

Most of it is just many , many years, of looking at price behavior, day after day.

Eventually, you see things, that you have seen so many times before, that it becomes it's own method of probabilities..

I always like to use a very famous quote by Supreme Court Justice Potter Stewart in 1964, when interviewed, regarding a case, dealing with pornography, that the court was looking over at that time.

The interviewer asked him if he could "define" exactly what is pornography, and he responded.."I can't define it, but, I know what it is when I see it!"

This is the kind of thing I;m talking about with regard to looking at "price" (not indicators).

Because the only thing that is 100% fact is price.

I don't mean it in the way of saying that "you can use the past to predict the future"... I am not coming from that angle.

I am coming from the angle of what Potter Stewart said.

Edited November 28, 2017 by cuegis

krisbee · November 28, 2017

On 11/27/2017 at 10:46 AM, krisbee said:

stock: PLAY

Earnings: 12/5/2017

I'm planning to enter 20 or 30 or 40 delta calls depending on price on 11/29/2017 or little earlier.

Got into average price 52.5 cents.

Djtux · November 28, 2017

1 minute ago, krisbee said:

Got into average price 52.5 cents.

Mid already at 0.8 ?

Well PLAYed.

siddharth · November 28, 2017

@NikTam @cuegis

are the charts for wday or amba suggesting anything positive. They are getting hammered when the market is up and so wondering whether to bail.

cuegis · November 28, 2017

I did VMW , ORCL, and CIEN. So far, they are working out well

siddharth · November 28, 2017

Is there any reason you avoided amba and wday as mentioned in the newsletter ?

cuegis · November 28, 2017

2 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

@NikTam @cuegis

are the charts for wday or amba suggesting anything positive. They are getting hammered when the market is up and so wondering whether to bail.

AMBA ,to me at least, looks like a divergence top, on the daily chart. I would not get long this one.

WDAY, on a shorter timeframe (15 minutes) looks like it just finished a minor , intraday, rally, that has run out of steam, and might have topped out for now.

I would stay away from both.....

But, it is subjective.

cuegis · November 28, 2017

1 minute ago, siddharth310584 said:

Is there any reason you avoided amba and wday as mentioned in the newsletter ?

Which newsletter..The "Discover" tab on CML?

I stayed away for the reasons I just gave.

To me, they did not look good to be worth doing.

I chose the ones that did look good to me.

I don't always follow the exact CML rules 100%.

Their suggestions really just bring new symbols to my attention that I would not have looked at on my own (because there are just too many).

Sometimes they will appear on a scan of 3 day , pre earnings long calls, and it will be 2-3 weeks away but, now that I have looked at all of the charts, I may decide, to me, that something might look like a perfect entry right now, even though earnings are not even close yet.

I just use it as a guide,and don't always take it exactly literally to the day.

NikTam · November 28, 2017

I was not interested in WDAY or AMBA because of what I saw on the charts. I want to see recent bullish price action in addition to strong back-testing results.

siddharth · November 28, 2017

Just for education,

What would you consider bullish price action ?

cuegis · November 28, 2017

4 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I was not interested in WDAY or AMBA because of what I saw on the charts. I want to see recent bullish price action in addition to strong back-testing results.

You mean backtesting with the CML machine, right?

Which test did you use to bring up those candidates?

NikTam · November 28, 2017

2 minutes ago, cuegis said:

You mean backtesting with the CML machine, right?

Which test did you use to bring up those candidates?

Yes. But I didn't scan for them. They were mentioned by @siddharth310584 so I took a look.

siddharth · November 28, 2017

They were in the newsletter from last earnings in August and continued their trend. Much like the Palo trade

NikTam · November 28, 2017

@siddharth310584 Higher highs and higher lows are a good start. Staying about support and/or breaking through previous resistance levels. Average or better volume. "Layered" trend lines -- 50 above 100, 34 above 50, 21 above 34, 8 above 21. (Or whatever trend lines you use). This would indicate sustained buying pressure. But not always definitive and reversal price action would be different and may be no less bullish.

Edited November 28, 2017 by NikTam

krisbee · November 28, 2017

On 11/28/2017 at 11:53 AM, krisbee said:

Got into average price 52.5 cents.

GTC sold for .80 cents. 50+% again.

NikTam · November 28, 2017

Whoa. Excellent results. The one day wonders are the best!

bam1960 · November 28, 2017

On 11/27/2017 at 9:46 AM, krisbee said:

stock: PLAY

Earnings: 12/5/2017

I'm planning to enter 20 or 30 or 40 delta calls depending on price on 11/29/2017 or little earlier.

Entered yesterday 50 calls 40 delta on the downswing up 33% already think I got a little lucky

krisbee · November 28, 2017

Just now, bam1960 said:

Entered yesterday 50 calls 40 delta on the downswing up 33% already think I got a little lucky

Yesterday was not suggested to enter the trade as per last cycle trends.

If premarket was bearish, I wouldn't have entered today as well. pre market being greenish, I entered with 20 delta 55 calls. Yes, we need to be lucky with all the Directional entries and today was extra luck to exit on the same day. (recent MRVL, after exiting, it went 300% up, so not sure how much this will go up)

NOTE: all these 9 in a row stocks are alerted by OphirGottlieb and all are successful. Personally I could have made more (doubled in many), but exited many with limited profits.

siddharth · November 28, 2017

7 minutes ago, krisbee said:

Yesterday was not suggested to enter the trade as per last cycle trends.

If premarket was bearish, I wouldn't have entered today as well. pre market being greenish, I entered with 20 delta 55 calls. Yes, we need to be lucky with all the Directional entries and today was extra luck to exit on the same day. (recent MRVL, after exiting, it went 300% up, so not sure how much this will go up)

NOTE: all these 9 in a row stocks are alerted by OphirGottlieb and all are successful. Personally I could have made more (doubled in many), but exited many with limited profits.

Where do you see Ophir alert them ?

Djtux · November 28, 2017

4 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Where do you see Ophir alert them ?

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/lite.php?app=news&referral=menu for example, there is an email newsletter somewhere but i'm not sure if you need to be a subcriber or not.

krisbee · November 28, 2017

On 11/28/2017 at 2:57 PM, siddharth310584 said:

Where do you see Ophir alert them ?

.

siddharth · November 28, 2017

What I was confused by was the timing of the entry since his recommendation was not to enter this early.

I see also, that you don't follow the recommendations directly. You take it as a guideline and then adjust it based on your expertise, Correct ? Does Ophir suggest entering this early anywhere ? The article (http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11657&app=news&cml_article_id=20170817_swing-trading-earnings-bullish-momentum-with-options-in-dave--busters-entertainment-inc) says to enter 3 days before. I am still trying to figure out the best way to use the services.

krisbee · November 28, 2017

Just now, siddharth310584 said:

What I was confused by was the timing of the entry since his recommendation was not to enter this early.

I see also, that you don't follow the recommendations directly. You take it as a guideline and then adjust it based on your expertise, Correct ? Does Ophir suggest entering this early anywhere ? The article (http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11657&app=news&cml_article_id=20170817_swing-trading-earnings-bullish-momentum-with-options-in-dave--busters-entertainment-inc) says to enter 3 days before. I am still trying to figure out the best way to use the services.

that's why I mentioned it as "Findings". (Finding the quote is where most of the time goes) It's individual's decision to validate and decide when to do. It's just a pattern matching tool to tell what is more probable. I enter little early or little late by doing my own amateurish analysis.

krisbee · November 28, 2017

stock: VEEV

Earnings date: 12/5/2017

6:1 ratio of win to loss. Today it's bearish. Haven't entered yet.

IgorK · November 28, 2017

5 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: VEEV

Earnings date: 12/5/2017

6:1 ratio of win to loss. Today it's bearish. Haven't entered yet.

65 CALL?

krisbee · November 28, 2017

1 minute ago, IgorK said:

65 CALL?

since it's going down, 65 call is what i'm targeting.

IgorK · November 28, 2017

8 minutes ago, krisbee said:

since it's going down, 65 call is what i'm targeting.

What do you think is acceptable entry price?

krisbee · November 28, 2017

2 minutes ago, IgorK said:

What do you think is acceptable entry price?

i kept 1.20 right now. If price keeps dropping, I'll reduce my price accordingly. Please see previous cycles, it gives an idea how much it jumped before earning.

IgorK · November 28, 2017

Just now, krisbee said:

i kept 1.20 right now. If price keeps dropping, I'll reduce my price accordingly. Please see previous cycles, it gives an idea how much it jumped before earning.

I see last 1.50. Long way to go I think.

Mdahl · November 28, 2017

The VEEV chart looks a bit different than the successful few cycles. The couple of times it had a down move like this at this point looks like it didn't spike back up. But, am watching it as well. All it takes is a little pop on these to get 20-50%...

cuegis · November 28, 2017

VEEV, in the larger picture , has strong bullish potential, based on a divergence bottom from end of Aug and end of Sept.

But, it is a volatile stock even without upcoming earnings in the picture.

A lot of big up days immediately followed by , just as large , down days, while still remaining in a clear uptrend that has taken the price from $54 to $64.

I would not take this on as a pre earnings trade with earnings in 1 week.

There could be a lot of volatility ,that may not take us higher , until after earnings.

This may be a better candidate for one of the POST earnings strategies.

Sirion · November 29, 2017

@krisbee VEEV with another break downwards today. Still holding off?

krisbee · November 29, 2017

Just now, Sirion said:

@krisbee VEEV with another break downwards today. Still holding off?

I haven't entered, as I was mentioning, if its keep going down, I don't want to enter still I see green.

btw, PLAY is more than 1.2+ for 55 call which I closed for 80cents yesterday.

cuegis · November 29, 2017

Did something happen at 10:30 AM today that caused basically everything to crash?

I was more than lucky. I dumped all of my ES,and VMW near the high of the day.

VMW when it was positive on the day, now down $7,00.

What happened.

Even Crude had nearly a $1.00 swing , back and forth, 3 times, in 20 minutes.

krisbee · November 29, 2017

On 11/28/2017 at 11:55 AM, Djtux said:

Mid already at 0.8 ?

Well PLAYed.

MID is 1.30+

siddharth · November 29, 2017

What do you think about AVGO. Earnings is coming up on 11/6 with CML stating a possible entry 6 days before.

greenspan76 · November 29, 2017

37 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

What do you think about AVGO. Earnings is coming up on 11/6 with CML stating a possible entry 6 days before.

Made just below 50% on it last cycle and would definitely enter today if I hadn't already entered yesterday. I did it yesterday because that was 6 trading days before earnings. I'm kinda wishing I had waited until today now...

krisbee · November 29, 2017

Not sure how many did KR straddle as per CML Viz news site. it was 20+% success from some users. I didn't do it.

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