CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

[greenspan76]

1 hour ago, krisbee said:

Not sure how many did KR straddle as per CML Viz news site. it was 20+% success from some users. I didn't do it.

In for $1.60. Out for $1.91, a gain of about 18% after commissions

[Sirion]

I need to set up some kind of reminder for these published cmlviz trades, unless they already have something. It'd be nice if they published something like a calendar when they update, with links back to the proposed trades or something?

Otherwise, I'm just going to have to figure out how to set an alert the day before/day of the published entry date? I missed out on KR too, but simply because I overlooked it.

Does anybody use a desktop tool for reminders like this?

[Mdahl]

The CML TGT recommendation hit the 45% profit goal today; nice pop in the stock price today to save an iffy trade.

[cuegis]

Check out RAD.... I put up a few posts ,suggesting IMO,there was an explosion pending....so far,it happened.

It could be just the start of a major squeeze.

I was talking about buying April $1.50 calls for .20 cents when the stock was around $1.65

Edited November 30, 2017 by cuegis

[cuegis]

I think today's "Lede" about VIAB might be the very best of them all.

It is just the very beginning    of a major move, not  the end.

I would be buying pullbacks, if you get them, on this.

[siddharth]

4 hours ago, cuegis said:

Check out RAD.... I put up a few posts ,suggesting IMO,there was an explosion pending....so far,it happened.

It could be just the start of a major squeeze.

I was talking about buying April $1.50 calls for .20 cents when the stock was around $1.65

how would you play this now ?

[siddharth]

4 hours ago, cuegis said:

I think today's "Lede" about VIAB might be the very best of them all.

It is just the very beginning    of a major move, not  the end.

I would be buying pullbacks, if you get them, on this.

Would you play the spread that they recommend ?

[siddharth]

@cuegis

@NikTam      Do youll have recommendation of good books to read for chart analysis ? It seems, you use those well to further the probability of your trades.

[siddharth]

@greenspan76

still holding avgo ? Looks to be pretty bearish at the moment. 

[greenspan76]

1 minute ago, siddharth310584 said:

@greenspan76

still holding avgo ? Looks to be pretty bearish at the moment. 

Yeah. I got in the Dec15 280 call for $8.70 and will hold until Dec 6th unless there is either a 50% loss or a 50% gain first.

[cuegis]

8 hours ago, siddharth310584 said:

how would you play this now ?

It had a clean breakout and after 2 huge up days, is today, having a natural pullback, to fill the breakout gap that it left behind.

Right where we are now, at around $1.95 area.

IF this is for real, this is your 2nd chance to get it. Right at this spot.

[siddharth]

The stock or the 40 delta calls ?

[cuegis]

5 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

The stock or the 40 delta calls ?

You can buy April $2 calls for .38 cents, or less.

That is such a bargain , in terms of time.

And they are in the money ...well they have been for the past few days.....now they are ATM

[Paul]

I just got filled on an AVGO Dec 8 282.5 call at 4.95 for 40% profit since yesterday.  Wasn't paying much attention, it looks like it is on the move today after slow start.

[siddharth]

1 minute ago, cuegis said:

You can buy April $2 calls for .38 cents, or less.

That is such a bargain , in terms of time.

And they are in the money ...well they have been for the past few days.....now they are ATM

I bought the 1.5 calls for .68 just before your message. Thanks for the responses. Will see how it goes. 

[cuegis]

8 hours ago, siddharth310584 said:

Would you play the spread that they recommend ?

It is WAY too illiquid to deal with 2 legs.

If you like this, then you are being handed a gift, since it has fallen over $1.00 from the breakout this morning.

Maybe Jan, Feb 30 calls, to have the most liquidity, and keep it simple

[siddharth]

2 minutes ago, Paul said:

I just got filled on an AVGO Dec 8 282.5 call at 4.95 for 40% profit since yesterday.  Wasn't paying much attention, it looks like it is on the move today after slow start.

The 277.5 calls hardly seem to be moving. How come you got in the 283 calls yesterday ? Were they 40 deltas or did you decide to go with another delta 

[krisbee]

On 11/29/2017 at 10:11 AM, krisbee said:

I haven't entered, as I was mentioning, if its keep going down, I don't want to enter still I see green.

btw, PLAY is more than 1.2+ for 55 call which I closed for 80cents yesterday.

Looks like VEEV settled a bit now. If it goes up, I'll enter into it.

[Paul]

2 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

The 277.5 calls hardly seem to be moving. How come you got in the 283 calls yesterday ? Were they 40 deltas or did you decide to go with another delta 

They were close to forty delta for the 282.5 Dec 8 calls so I bought.  Wasn't sure if it was the right expiry though as others were talking about a week later.  I'm just starting to use this thread.  I seems quite profitable for small size.

[cuegis]

8 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

I bought the 1.5 calls for .68 just before your message. Thanks for the responses. Will see how it goes. 

I also bought bought the $1.50 calls before the breakout because , it was APRIL, you were probably REALLY paying .48 cents of extrinsic value, because they were in the money by .20 cents.

Then I loaded up on April $2 calls, There is SO much time, and it is happening now, in November

[cuegis]

8 hours ago, siddharth310584 said:

Would you play the spread that they recommend ?

The Jan 30 calls, with a .40 delta, lost .10 cents, after the stock plunged over $1.00.

Based on delta, it should have lost .30 - .40 cents.

There are strong bids/buyers on this.

[Sirion]

22 hours ago, greenspan76 said:

Made just below 50% on it last cycle and would definitely enter today if I hadn't already entered yesterday. I did it yesterday because that was 6 trading days before earnings. I'm kinda wishing I had waited until today now...

Was in AVGO for 277.5 calls at 5.30. Just got filled to sell for 7.50. 

Timing helps. I'll be watching to see if this one looks good again in time for a 3-day pre-earnings entry.

[Sirion]

On 11/27/2017 at 9:46 AM, krisbee said:

stock: PLAY

Earnings: 12/5/2017

I'm planning to enter 20 or 30 or 40 delta calls depending on price on 11/29/2017 or little earlier.

CML just released: http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11825&app=news&cml_article_id=20171130_the-one-week-pre-earnings-momentum-trade-with-options-in-dave--busters-entertainment&source=TM_insights

for PLAY with entry of today. 

Thinking of re-entering? 

Personally, I would consider entering on a dip if I saw one. May open anyway at EOD unless it just tears up like crazy.

[krisbee]

1 hour ago, krisbee said:

Looks like VEEV settled a bit now. If it goes up, I'll enter into it.

VEEV started moving up. My 55 cents limit didn't get any fills and now the mid is 70cents. I'm going to let this go. Missed it by 5 cents. 

[krisbee]

4 minutes ago, Sirion said:

CML just released: http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11825&app=news&cml_article_id=20171130_the-one-week-pre-earnings-momentum-trade-with-options-in-dave--busters-entertainment&source=TM_insights

for PLAY with entry of today. 

Thinking of re-entering? 

Personally, I would consider entering on a dip if I saw one. May open anyway at EOD unless it just tears up like crazy.

I'm not planning to reenter.

btw, AMBA is very consistently Bearish in all the earnings. I'm thinking of good post earnings strategy on this. Earnings is today.

 

 

Edited November 30, 2017 by krisbee

[cuegis]

13 minutes ago, Sirion said:

CML just released: http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11825&app=news&cml_article_id=20171130_the-one-week-pre-earnings-momentum-trade-with-options-in-dave--busters-entertainment&source=TM_insights

for PLAY with entry of today. 

Thinking of re-entering? 

Personally, I would consider entering on a dip if I saw one. May open anyway at EOD unless it just tears up like crazy.

It just broke out of a bull flag on the 15 minute chart. If I were to buy it, now would be a good time.

It dosn't appear to have a formation that would allow for a pullback anymore.

But, take it with a grain of salt.

[siddharth]

@cuegis
@niktam

Do you have any recommendations for books on reading charts ?

 

[greenspan76]

1 hour ago, Sirion said:

Was in AVGO for 277.5 calls at 5.30. Just got filled to sell for 7.50. 

Timing helps. I'll be watching to see if this one looks good again in time for a 3-day pre-earnings entry.

Yep, timing is everything. I thought I read that on pre-earnings trades with less than 7 days to earnings, CML used trading days instead of calendar days. I don't remember what the backtested results showed, but I see now that I traded based on calendar days last cycle, so I probably just screwed up this time. Nice trade.

[cuegis]

5 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

@cuegis
@niktam

Do you have any recommendations for books on reading charts ?

 

I'm sorry, I have no idea what books are out there in 2017.

All of my learning about this subject took place when I first got into trading in 1980.

Nobody ever heard of charting, so it worked perfectly because nobody was using it, and there were no books available either.

I went through every phase of it,mostly in the 80's and early 90's....Elliot Wave, everything.

I actually concluded that it was a waste of time if it were being used in the hopes of trying to predict what will happen in the future based on what happened in the past.

So, I had a long period where I was really down on all of it.

This led me to keep my focus on staying delta neutral,and trying to be a net seller, if/when prices warranted it.

Only in the past few years, have I "balanced" my opinion of it. But .there is a difference between "technical analysis", with all of it's indicators...and just looking at a chart for some perspective as to where we are now relative to where we have been.

I only look at bar charts, with no indicators,because you are only looking at "price" and that is an absolute truth. Everything else (indicators) is "suggestive" of where they think things are going, so it subconsciously fills your mind with "opinions".

I like to look at the weekly and daily bar charts to give me perspective of the big picture, and then go down to 15 minute, and maybe 5 minute charts, for timing entry and exit.

But, most of what see is an accumulation of just looking at the same thing evreyday for 35+ years.

You just get to know how things likely will play out.

But, if you want to have some education of the full topic....the classic book, written in 1945, by authors Edwards and Magee (i forgot the name of the book), is considered by many to be the bible on this subject.

But,Please, do not get caught up in, or sucked into, any of the zillions of charlatans out there, who make claims that they have a system that turns $4500 into $3 million in 6 months!

[siddharth]

6 minutes ago, cuegis said:

I'm sorry, I have no idea what books are out there in 2017.

All of my learning about this subject took place when I first got into trading in 1980.

Nobody ever heard of charting, so it worked perfectly because nobody was using it, and there were no books available either.

I went through every phase of it,mostly in the 80's and early 90's....Elliot Wave, everything.

I actually concluded that it was a waste of time if it were being used in the hopes of trying to predict what will happen in the future based on what happened in the past.

So, I had a long period where I was really down on all of it.

This led me to keep my focus on staying delta neutral,and trying to be a net seller, if/when prices warranted it.

Only in the past few years, have I "balanced" my opinion of it. But .there is a difference between "technical analysis", with all of it's indicators...and just looking at a chart for some perspective as to where we are now relative to where we have been.

I only look at bar charts, with no indicators,because you are only looking at "price" and that is an absolute truth. Everything else (indicators) is "suggestive" of where they think things are going, so it subconsciously fills your mind with "opinions".

I like to look at the weekly and daily bar charts to give me perspective of the big picture, and then go down to 15 minute, and maybe 5 minute charts, for timing entry and exit.

But, most of what see is an accumulation of just looking at the same thing evreyday for 35+ years.

You just get to know how things likely will play out.

But, if you want to have some education of the full topic....the classic book, written in 1945, by authors Edwards and Magee (i forgot the name of the book), is considered by many to be the bible on this subject.

But,Please, do not get caught up in, or sucked into, any of the zillions of charlatans out there, who make claims that they have a system that turns $4500 into $3 million in 6 months!

Thanks for the info. I was mainly looking into being able to read charts to help with this cml trades. Not by itself. I wish I had some ability to tell me to stay away from amba and wday so was looking to educate myself a bit there. Thanks !!!

[cuegis]

12 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Thanks for the info. I was mainly looking into being able to read charts to help with this cml trades. Not by itself. I wish I had some ability to tell me to stay away from amba and wday so was looking to educate myself a bit there. Thanks !!!

I wish I could help you more,but, I 'll try and think of something that might be out there, that is not the typical of people trying to make a buck.

There most likely are gems out there, but, the field has become so enormous over the years, who has the time to weed them out.

Also,for some reason, all finance, charting type books tend to cost a fortune. On average $50, and I have seen $200, or more.

Kirk ,who has Kim's blessings, and runs the "Options Alpha" site,and group, did a huge project of research, and turned it into a book called "Signals".

I would actually be interested in reading it.

I know he is a good, honest, honarable guy, who Kim has praised in the past.

This book might be what you need, but, he has continually said "this $197 book, is now available, for a limited time, for $97"

Meanwhile, it has ALWAYS been for sale for $97.

Another guy who has written many, many interesting books, his name is Connors (I forgot his first name)....But I have made a LOT of money using some of his techniques.

[cuegis]

23 minutes ago, cuegis said:

I wish I could help you more,but, I 'll try and think of something that might be out there, that is not the typical of people trying to make a buck.

There most likely are gems out there, but, the field has become so enormous over the years, who has the time to weed them out.

Also,for some reason, all finance, charting type books tend to cost a fortune. On average $50, and I have seen $200, or more.

Kirk ,who has Kim's blessings, and runs the "Options Alpha" site,and group, did a huge project of research, and turned it into a book called "Signals".

I would actually be interested in reading it.

I know he is a good, honest, honarable guy, who Kim has praised in the past.

This book might be what you need, but, he has continually said "this $197 book, is now available, for a limited time, for $97"

Meanwhile, it has ALWAYS been for sale for $97.

Another guy who has written many, many interesting books, his name is Connors (I forgot his first name)....But I have made a LOT of money using some of his techniques.

Here is the book I was talking about. I have not read it but, everyone can vouch for him being an honorable, hard working guy. Who runs a group very similar to SO.

https://optionalpha.com/signals

[apsoccermd]

20 minutes ago, cuegis said:

I wish I could help you more,but, I 'll try and think of something that might be out there, that is not the typical of people trying to make a buck.

There most likely are gems out there, but, the field has become so enormous over the years, who has the time to weed them out.

Also,for some reason, all finance, charting type books tend to cost a fortune. On average $50, and I have seen $200, or more.

Kirk ,who has Kim's blessings, and runs the "Options Alpha" site,and group, did a huge project of research, and turned it into a book called "Signals".

I would actually be interested in reading it.

I know he is a good, honest, honarable guy, who Kim has praised in the past.

This book might be what you need, but, he has continually said "this $197 book, is now available, for a limited time, for $97"

Meanwhile, it has ALWAYS been for sale for $97.

Another guy who has written many, many interesting books, his name is Connors (I forgot his first name)....But I have made a LOT of money using some of his techniques.

I was actually looking "Options Alpha" to enhance my option trading knowlage and hopefully follow along few more market neutral trading.. By glancing over, the site does look like aggressive marketing machine, kind of like Stensberry Research marketing clickbates.. 

 

I would like to hear honest feedback from the people who are familiar with Options Alpha what they think about the product.. 

 

Thanks

[cuegis]

Just now, apsoccermd said:

I was actually looking "Options Alpha" to enhance my option trading knowlage and hopefully follow along few more market neutral trading.. By glancing over, the site does look like aggressive marketing machine, kind of like Stensberry Research marketing clickbates.. 

 

I would like to hear honest feedback from the people who are familiar with Options Alpha what they think about the product.. 

 

Thanks

Honestly, I joined about 6 months ago because I wanted easy access to one thing in particular....A daily screening of the highest  underlyings with highest IV Rank/percentile.

But, I was dissappointed with his work on this because he only listed the very top stocks, just a very small handful.

And, I didn't want the FANG's, I wanted a large list of everything, that you can manipulate based on liquidity, or other factors.

His trade alerts are basically always, iron butterflies or IC's. But they have worked out well, and his track record is good.

But, I have not really followed his trades, because, personally, I'm not satisfied with .32 cent profits, even though they are consistent.

I set my sights higher (and get bit in the behind for it a lot).

But, I would recommend him

[siddharth]

32 cent profits on what risk ?

[cuegis]

4 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

32 cent profits on what risk ?

He is also doing the same TLT trades that are done here.

I just threw out .32 cents not literally, but, in the general ballpark.

He also does things like closing out the winning part of the trades, and trying to make a 2nd gain on a reversal.

Honestly, and this is my fault, I get very busy watching, and managing my own trades, then suddenly, at 3.50, I get a flurry of 4-5 earnings trades, which would require some time to organize, let alone think about it for a few minutes.

He takes huge wins, and losses, on the "through earnings" trades. But, that is how that process works, as you know.

[siddharth]

@cuegis,

Probably should have asked this before but with RAD, what is the plan ? To hold into next year ? I may be away from my PC next week so wanted to know what your thoughts were. 

[cuegis]

36 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

@cuegis,

Probably should have asked this before but with RAD, what is the plan ? To hold into next year ? I may be away from my PC next week so wanted to know what your thoughts were. 

Well, considering that they are April options, and it looks like we are in the early stages of a breakout, I am looking at this as a longer term, directional trade.

At the prices we paid, and the amount of time that we have, I don't think we need to start focusing that much until late Jan or Feb

[siddharth]

Thanks. I got some books on charting and plan to start reading a bit over the eeekend. May I ask why you think this is the early stages of a breakout and what your target price is. 

[NikTam]

BOT AVGO on the market dip today.  Earnings AMC 12/6.   Long the 275/280 vertical call.  Paid 1.90.  the CML back-test is not exemplary for all time frames, but I like the chart.  My first trade of December.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171201193208_YZMMq2HBbESsZ9Lr

Edited December 1, 2017 by NikTam

[siddharth]

Just now, NikTam said:

BOT AVGO on the market dip today.  Long the 275/280 vertical call.  Paid 1.90.  the CML back-test is not exemplary for all time frames, but I like the chart.  My first trade of December.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171201193208_YZMMq2HBbESsZ9Lr

Do you do the spread instead of the call to decrease the effect of theta ?

[NikTam]

Yes.  Although it could be said that such a short duration trade doesn't warrant it.  But I'm happy with the $5 - $1.90 = $3.10 profit potential.  And it's almost a 1.6 to 1 reward to risk.  (62:38).   190/500=.38   310/500=.62  

[cuegis]

24 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Thanks. I got some books on charting and plan to start reading a bit over the eeekend. May I ask why you think this is the early stages of a breakout and what your target price is. 

Well, look at where it has been in the past. Then look at where the current low is. Then look at the clean, very significant move is, that took place from the recent, and all time low.

There could be a few dollars in this. Maybe by Jan or Feb.....we have until April, and we definitely broke out, and are practically in the money!

Also, an outside key reversal bottom bar on the weekly chart.

Edited December 1, 2017 by cuegis

[apsoccermd]

I had a good run with AVGO.. 

 

On Thusday,   I swinged  "AVGO Dec 15, 2017 $270.00 Cal"l from $10 at open to 13$ by noon..

Just re-entered same call at $9.25.. maybe get lucky again.. 

 

[siddharth]

Bought PLAY on the dip again with earnings next Tuesday. 55 call for 2.3

[cuegis]

Is it just me or, do other people think a 37 point drop in the sp's in less than 3 minutes, with no uptick the entire way down, would be considered an outlier? I bought an expiring (Dec 1 ) ATM call, literally 1 second before the collapse, in SPY....then SPY dropped like $3.00, so it was an absolute that it would expire worthless. Amazingly, I felt a "rumble" just before the crash, and sold the next strike call, for about 50% of what I paid for the original call. So, it made a big difference. But, if the crash was an outlier in itself......Would you believe that, by the close, my call wound up in the money? Outlier upon outlier. Unless someone thinks this was just a "normal" day!

[izzo70]

On 11/30/2017 at 2:45 PM, cuegis said:

Honestly, I joined about 6 months ago because I wanted easy access to one thing in particular....A daily screening of the highest  underlyings with highest IV Rank/percentile.

Is this what you need? 

[cuegis]

17 minutes ago, izzo70 said:

Is this what you need? 

Oh...I thought they shut that down and converted it over to TastyWorks, when they opened that.

Is this still the same "Dough", with the same access?

[siddharth]

What product is this ? And how do you plan to use this information ? Is this used to sell credit spreads ?

[izzo70]

3 minutes ago, cuegis said:

Oh...I thought they shut that down and converted it over to TastyWorks, when they opened that.

Is this still the same "Dough", with the same access?

Yeah same thing it's just part of tastyworks now.  It's on their web based platform only.  It's not available on the software.