CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

[NikTam]

THO

Yes, that is the Preliminary Date.  But likely more accurate than Earnings Whispers date.  I'm going to wait until Monday on this one.

[bigbreak]

4 minutes ago, 4REAL said:

 

THO announced (on Oct31) a PRELIMINARY EARNINGS RELEASE DATE for Nov27 (see link)

http://ir.thorindustries.com/press-release-and-events-calendar/press-releases/press-release-details/2017/Thor-Announces-Preliminary-Earnings-Release-Date-q118/default.aspx

ER date should be confirmed next week

 

Correct.  My mistake.  Will correct my post...

Edited November 17, 2017 by bigbreak

[NikTam]

PANW:  I did jump into this at the open today and am out with a 22% gain.  I knew it had good back-test results and saw it moving early so got on board with it.  Not my best process but it worked this time.

 

And I'm going to hold INTU through the weekend and exit on Monday.  Appears to be a strong pattern of gain on the day of earnings.  

Edited November 17, 2017 by NikTam

[NikTam]

2 hours ago, krisbee said:

ON Travel. my GTC filled for 15% profit. right now it should be more than 22%.

I'm happy with 100% success rate. 5 out of 5.

MAR, NVDA, AMAT, INTU, ADI

You know how to pick 'em -- these were all great trades.  But not fair if you're not going to share in the losers -- 

[greenspan76]

5 hours ago, NikTam said:

PANW:  I did jump into this at the open today and am out with a 22% gain.  I knew it had good back-test results and saw it moving early so got on board with it.  Not my best process but it worked this time.

 

And I'm going to hold INTU through the weekend and exit on Monday.  Appears to be a strong pattern of gain on the day of earnings.  

Was that the pre-earnings call on PANW you traded? I opened the Nov24 143 call on the 15th for $4.40 and closed this morning for $5.60, so about 27% after commissions. However, I closed it early because I had some things to take care of the rest of the day and literally less than 5 minutes after I closed it, it jumped to a bid of $6.20 (my original GTC sell order price). I saw that it went even higher later in the day. Also, I closed INTU call for an 8.6% gain.

[krisbee]

16 hours ago, NikTam said:

You know how to pick 'em -- these were all great trades.  But not fair if you're not going to share in the losers -- 

none of these are my finds. Following Ophir Gottlieb in twitter is enough to find these. I read it, validate it using volatilityhq site, share it here for others, put 1% of my portfolio on these calls. I have 1 to 2 position maximum at any given time. 

 

 

Edited November 18, 2017 by krisbee

[NikTam]

Interesting.  I think most if not all these have been on talked about on this forum.  I think Ophir is stalking.  :-)

Edited November 18, 2017 by NikTam

[NikTam]

@greenspan76 yes - pre-earnings trade.  I paid $6.10 for the 145 about 30 min into open on Friday and my GTC sell order triggered at 7.40.  I think it went to 7.60.  A near perfect trade in my book - a one-day wonder.   

[siddharth]

3 hours ago, krisbee said:

none of these are my finds. Following Ophir Gottlieb in twitter is enough to find these. I read it, validate it using volatilityhq site, share it here for others, put 1% of my portfolio on these calls. I have 1 to 2 position maximum at any given time. 

 

 

How do you validate through volatilityhq ?

[NikTam]

4 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

How do you validate through volatilityhq ?

I was going to ask the same question....I just started membership ($5 per month) but still investigating how to best use it.

[krisbee]

1 minute ago, siddharth310584 said:

How do you validate through volatilityhq ?

From day of entry to exit day --> #1. check the gamma gains #2. if gamma gain is less and RV increase, if either of these 2 conditions is good in minimum 6 out of 8 cycles, I'll consider getting into the trade. 

[siddharth]

2 minutes ago, krisbee said:

From day of entry to exit day --> #1. check the gamma gains #2. if gamma gain is less and RV increase, if either of these 2 conditions is good in minimum 6 out of 8 cycles, I'll consider getting into the trade. 

Doesn't it do ATM RV of straddles though ? Some of these are 40 delta calls. 

what do you mean by 2. Do you compare gamma gains to RV increase ?

 

@NikTam, is volatilityhq only $5 a month. I thought it was 50.

[NikTam]

3 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Doesn't it do ATM RV of straddles though ? Some of these are 40 delta calls. 

what do you mean by 2. Do you compare gamma gains to RV increase ?

 

@NikTam, is volatilityhq only $5 a month. I thought it was 50.

You're right.  I'm thinking of something else -- autochartist?  Too many indicators, subscriptions, etc.  going on....

[NikTam]

6 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Doesn't it do ATM RV of straddles though ? Some of these are 40 delta calls. 

what do you mean by 2. Do you compare gamma gains to RV increase ?

 

@NikTam, is volatilityhq only $5 a month. I thought it was 50.

I thought ivhq was only good for straddles.  Not delta 40 calls (or verticals).

 

@krisbee could you post a graphic of the results you're looking at?  And can you back-test the ones that didn't do well.  I'm very curious to find out how effective an overlay this might be to CML back-testing.

Edited November 18, 2017 by NikTam

[krisbee]

On 11/18/2017 at 1:26 PM, NikTam said:

I thought ivhq was only good for straddles.  Not delta 40 calls (or verticals).

 

@krisbee could you post a graphic of the results you're looking at?  And can you back-test the ones that didn't do well.  I'm very curious to find out how effective an overlay this might be to CML back-testing.

volatilityhq site is not working right now. But I got one example for u to explain.

 

See 8 out of 9 cycles, consistent gamma gains. So far I have nothing that didn't go well w.r.t this. I don't have CML subscription to compare.

 

 

 

Edited May 4, 2019 by krisbee

[NikTam]

13 minutes ago, krisbee said:

volatilityhq site is not working right now. But I got one example for u to explain.

 

See 8 out of 9 cycles, consistent gamma gains. So far I have nothing that didn't go well w.r.t this. I don't have CML subscription to compare.

 

 

This is very interesting.  Some of my trades that did not work out well were:  YUM EXC ADP RBC  How did these look based on your RV chart?

[siddharth]

3 hours ago, NikTam said:

This is very interesting.  Some of my trades that did not work out well were:  YUM EXC ADP RBC  How did these look based on your RV chart?

So you are looking only for stock price increase, not decrease right. A decrease would help straddle but would hurt 40 delta calls.

How do you use it for RV as the second check ?

[siddharth]

4 hours ago, NikTam said:

This is very interesting.  Some of my trades that did not work out well were:  YUM EXC ADP RBC  How did these look based on your RV chart?

@NikTam

I can look into this when the site is back up. However, for a 40 delta call, won't you expect the results to be inline. The way that goes up is is the stock price increases and if CML says the trade has been successful in the last 6/8 cycles, I would expect this to be in line with that. They just would be different views on the same data. He is using this instead of CML but I don't see anything here that would be a further confirmation needed for a trade that pops up in CML. What do you think ?

 

[NikTam]

@siddharth310584 I think you are probably right - if gamma is a direct equivalent of price movement.  And @krisbeeis satisfied with min 75% success over 2 years (8 cycles).  Which is what I look for also for a minimum score.  And the losers I mentioned all met that minimum as I scanned for opportunities.  He’s done fewer of these than I have so it may just be a reversion to the mean for him in future - unless he’s doing something that is significantly improving the odds.  I thought it might be ivhq but likely it is not.  

Edited November 18, 2017 by NikTam

[siddharth]

One thing that might be interesting is looking at the chart to see what day from earnings there is an uptick on. For example, I looked at DE (whose earnings are coming back) and at t-7 to t-6 (t being earnings), there has been an increase in stock price 7/8 times even though around that, its been fairly up/down. CML confirms this with a backtest. I don't know if this is overfitting but it may help determine some candidates to look at which may not have a multi day trade. I see from your spreadsheet, some trades are 1-2 days anyways. I am not sure if this will work but can keep an eye out and let you know in the future.

[NikTam]

11 hours ago, siddharth310584 said:

One thing that might be interesting is looking at the chart to see what day from earnings there is an uptick on. For example, I looked at DE (whose earnings are coming back) and at t-7 to t-6 (t being earnings), there has been an increase in stock price 7/8 times even though around that, its been fairly up/down. CML confirms this with a backtest. I don't know if this is overfitting but it may help determine some candidates to look at which may not have a multi day trade. I see from your spreadsheet, some trades are 1-2 days anyways. I am not sure if this will work but can keep an eye out and let you know in the future.

I think this is a very interesting idea.  I'm also wondering if IVHQ is still available for $49 to SO members?  I am seeing a $99 price on the website.  @Djtux?

[Djtux]

31 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I think this is a very interesting idea.  I'm also wondering if IVHQ is still available for $49 to SO members?  I am seeing a $99 price on the website.  @Djtux?

There is a coupon available for a limited time at the top of the volatilityhq official thread : https://steadyoptions.com/forums/forum/topic/3885-wwwvolatilityhqcom-official-thread/ 

 

[siddharth]

How long are people keeping adi and intu 

[greenspan76]

@siddharth310584 I closed ADI a couple minutes ago when it hit my 40% profit target. Had the 92.5 Dec15 Call... In $1.46, out $2.10, ~43% gain after commissions

[Sirion]

13 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

How long are people keeping adi and intu 

Closing INTU at some point today. Earnings AC.

[krisbee]

stock: MRVL

Earnings: 11/28/2017

I'm planning to enter 30 delta call if it meets my limit order. Either today or tomorrow.

 

Got few for 30cents

    BOT    MRVL Dec01'17 21 CALL    0.30    USD    CBOE2    10:45:39   
 

Edited November 20, 2017 by krisbee

[NikTam]

1 hour ago, Sirion said:

Closing INTU at some point today. Earnings AC.

Same here.  INTU living up to its reputation for 0-day-before-earnings gains.

[krisbee]

38 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: MRVL

Earnings: 11/28/2017

I'm planning to enter 30 delta call if it meets my limit order. Either today or tomorrow.

 

Got few for 30cents

    BOT    MRVL Dec01'17 21 CALL    0.30    USD    CBOE2    10:45:39   
 

Sold for 50% profit in 30 mins. 45 cents.

 

[NikTam]

29 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: MRVL

Earnings: 11/28/2017

I'm planning to enter 30 delta call if it meets my limit order. Either today or tomorrow.

Interesting price action this morning based on buyout of rival Cavium I assume.  I will also wait a bit for direction.  CML back-test indicates to me that a 40/20 vertical improves the probability numbers without too much hit to profitability.  I also added a 40% profit exit which gives best 3 year results.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171120162242_0DZkleQW9HI3pEjZ

[siddharth]

Nice trade. How did you select your limit prices 

[NikTam]

2 minutes ago, krisbee said:

Sold for 50% profit in 30 mins. 45 cents.

 

I assume the 1 Dec?

I'm liking the 30 min chart.

[siddharth]

Just now, NikTam said:

I assume the 1 Dec?

I'm liking the 30 min chart.

What price would you buy at now ?

Edited November 20, 2017 by siddharth310584

[krisbee]

Just now, NikTam said:

I assume the 1 Dec?

I'm liking the 30 min chart.

I mentioned earnings is 11/28. So default expiration is dec 1 unless weekly is not available.

[NikTam]

7 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

What price would you buy at now ?

MRVL -- I have a GTC at .35 for a single 1 DEC 21 call -- will not get filled unless it bounces back down. 

I also have GTC at .28 for a 1 DEC 21/22 Vertical. 

[NikTam]

11 minutes ago, krisbee said:

I mentioned earnings is 11/28. So default expiration is dec 1 unless weekly is not available.

@krisbee  Thanks for sharing.  How did you find this one?

[Mdahl]

@krisbee  Fantanstic call on MRVL...  Followed your lead and got 50% in 30 min as well

[NikTam]

MRVL -- 1 DEC 21/22 Vertical filled at .34  -- I increased my offer from .28  My GTC exit is set at .47 for hoped for 40% gain.

[siddharth]

4 minutes ago, NikTam said:

MRVL -- 1 DEC 21/22 Vertical filled at .34  -- I increased my offer from .28  My GTC exit is set at .47 for hoped for 40% gain.

What delta's did you use. From your back test, it looks like none of them have a very high win %. Most have 7-4/

 

Did you buy21 and sell 22 calls ?

 

Edited November 20, 2017 by siddharth310584

[NikTam]

Just now, siddharth310584 said:

What delta's did you use. From your back test, it looks like none of them have a very high win %. Most have 7-4/

 

Did you buy21 and sell 22 ?

 

Yes.  

I think the chart trumps the CML back-testing sometimes.  And I would not do a trade based solely on CML.  I want to see the charts and indicators and the news that may be affecting pricing.

[NikTam]

INTU PE Momentum Call.  Exited half of my position for 29% net gain.  Waiting to see if there's any more gas in the tank!

Edited November 20, 2017 by NikTam

[krisbee]

On 11/17/2017 at 2:40 PM, krisbee said:

Stock: THO

Earnings is: Nov 11/27/2017

Very good Probability of 40 Delta call entering 1 week ahead.

I got into it yesterday, I'm 40% up on it so far.

    BOT    THO Dec15'17 135 CALL    3.40    USD    PSE    NOV 16 15:23:55   
 

Sold THO.

1st position for 70%+ profit.

2nd position for 40%+ profit.

 

This makes 7th successful CML trades (7 out of 7)

MAR, NVDA, AMAT, ADI, INTU, THO, MRVL

[siddharth]

How did you find the marvel trade ? And what made you pull the trigger on the tho trade before the specified entry date ?

[krisbee]

1 minute ago, siddharth310584 said:

How did you find the marvel trade ? And what made you pull the trigger on the tho trade before the specified entry date ?

I mentioned few times here, I follow CML news + I use volatilityhq site to make decision on gamma gains.

[krisbee]

51 minutes ago, krisbee said:

Sold for 50% profit in 30 mins. 45 cents.

 

I kept few and sold it for 100+ percent profit. it could have been more, what else can I ask for 1-2 hour profit.

 

[NikTam]

MRVL 1DEC 21/22 Vertical -- Exited for 40% gain.  Thank you @krisbee!

I will try to replicate this trade since the price oscillation continues....

[NikTam]

18 minutes ago, krisbee said:

I mentioned few times here, I follow CML news + I use volatilityhq site to make decision on gamma gains.

Can you post the VHQ chart for MRVL?  I may have to sign up for that....

Edited November 20, 2017 by NikTam

[siddharth]

Can you tell me what price you will set the vertical at. That’s the part I struggle with and I’m not sure how to determine 

[krisbee]

On 11/20/2017 at 12:29 PM, NikTam said:

Can you post the VHQ chart for MRVL?  I may have to sign up for that....

Note: for a 21$ stock, if it goes 1 to 1.5$ up in last few days, imagine how much the 40 delta calls boosts up. that's the decision for getting into the trade.

 

 

[NikTam]

On a trade like MRVL I just look at the price oscillation and pick a number on the lower end of the spectrum.  I'm afraid I don't have any math or science to back it up.  I think some platforms -- IB? -- provide a price history of options but not sure if that would include verticals.

[NikTam]

1 minute ago, krisbee said:

Note: for a 21$ stock, if it goes 1 to 1.5$ up in last few days, imagine how much the 40 delta calls boosts up. that's the decision for getting into the trade.

 

This definitely adds some color to the CML back-testing!