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CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

NikTam

By NikTam
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zxcv64
zxcv64

Having completed a 100 CML trades, I thought I would summarise my results.    Summary : 100 trades, 66 winners, overall profit of 12.1% PER TRADE.   Here is a detailed breakdown, w

greenspan76
greenspan76

This topic was a little more active a while back and I had intended to give an update on my results at the 1 year mark, but I've been busy with other projects the last few months. My first CML trade w

cuegis
cuegis

Here is an example of how I have used CML as an adjunct to the SO calendar trades, pre earnings. We know that those calendars , on their own, are very good trades, with a great success rate.

Posted Images

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Posted
1 minute ago, cuegis said:

I chose Jan montlies, and, because even though those were not that liquid, I assumed a "non-monthly" would be even worse.

Make sense.  So I have ADBE and COST set up for Monday entry.  The expiration on COST will be the nearest weekly (Dec 15).

IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Make sense.  So I have ADBE and COST set up for Monday entry.  The expiration on COST will be the nearest weekly (Dec 15).

@NikTam How do you set up? Do you have GTC orders?  How do you calculate order price?

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Make sense.  So I have ADBE and COST set up for Monday entry.  The expiration on COST will be the nearest weekly (Dec 15).

It is a good choice because Dec 15 is also a monthly, .

.and with just a few days until earnings, the increase in IV "should" offset any time decay from such a short term option,

Then you get the added benefit of the most amount of gamma

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Posted
4 hours ago, IgorK said:

@NikTam How do you set up? Do you have GTC orders?  How do you calculate order price?

I haven't set them up yet.  Will wait until Monday.  Which is not great but I don't want to set something up and then have a weekend event negatively impact.

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Maji Hero Member

Maji

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, krisbee said:

Stock: NFLX

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11832&app=news&cml_article_id=20171207_trigger-netflix-bullish-technical-ttm-squeeze

I got that update and was able to look at it after the markets were closed. As NFLX was closing above the trigger indicated in the article, the bull squeeze has been initiated. However, looking at the Dec 22 options (15 DTE), and the 90-40 deltas, it appears that the investment will be about $1278 for a profit of (187.5-170)*100-1278 = $472 - costs. I believe that it cannot be traded in any significant numbers... the OI for the 90 delta calls is 3!! The only way to trade is to go out to the Jan 19, 2018, calls. The investment will be around $2885 for $1115 return minus expenses. Percentage wise it is almost the same but I think can be traded. The 15 DTE options can't really be traded here. Most importantly, with just an OI of 3, I think even the CMLviz people did not participate in any significant volume in their own dance!

Edited by Maji
NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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6 hours ago, siddharth310584 said:

what ADBE trade do you have set up for Monday. Earnings are not till 12/21 and the back test is 3 days before.

I think Adobe website confirms 12-14.  

Maji Hero Member

Maji

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, siddharth310584 said:

It closed below 186.05. Why do you think it triggered ?

You are right... I am not sure what I saw to think that it was triggered ...

 

any way, the premise that the system cannot be traded with calls with 15 DTE due to low OI remains true...

siddharth Hero Member

siddharth

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Sirion said:

Closed for 4.35. About 40% gain with commissions. 

Not having the same success. I bought the adobe 177.5 call when there was a dip today at 175 but it has kept falling :/ 

siddharth Hero Member

siddharth

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, krisbee said:

I'm planning to reenter for same price i did earlier or close to that. It's approaching there now.

What price do you have a limit order at. The price is close now and wondering g whether to pull the trigger 

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted

I closed out COST earlier.

I had bought Jan $188,$190, and $193 calls.

I paid $4.30 for the $188, and sold for $5.45

Paid $3.50 for $190, sold for $4.35

and $2.50 for $193, sold for $3.15

I bought yesterday. So, this is a 1 day result!

  • Upvote 1
greenspan76 Hero Member

greenspan76

Posted
Posted (edited)

As some of you know, I've been experimenting with the CML blog trades for a few months and tried to follow the trades exactly as posted (though I've screwed up on a few). It used to be that only a handful of the trades had stop limits / gains, but it seems like the more recent ones have almost all had stop limits / gains. I've become more inclined to institute my own limits on those that don't have any built into the backtest. Anyway, here's a trade that's an example of why limits can be really useful... Opened the post-earnings NVDA Dec15 200/210/220/230 iron condor on Nov 13th for $6.35 credit. By Nov 28th, it was trading below $4.50, so I took ~50% gains on all but one spread and held it to continue tracking. Right now (the day the trade is supposed to be closed), that spread is showing an 84% loss. So far, of the 5 post-earnings ICs I've traded, 3 of them have done something very similar to this, though not quite as extreme.

Edited by greenspan76
greenspan76 Hero Member

greenspan76

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, IgorK said:

Did anyone try this one: http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11828&app=news&cml_article_id=20171204_united-continental-holdings-hits-a-bullish-technical-trigger&source=TM_insights

I added Dec22 59/64 CALL spread for monitoring day before yesterday and it was around 2.90. Now it is mid 3.90. Had to buy :)

I did. Bought the the Dec22 59/65 spread for $3.35 and still holding.

  • Upvote 1
zxcv64 Hero Member

zxcv64

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 08/12/2017 at 8:39 PM, greenspan76 said:

Did anyone try this one: http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11828&app=news&cml_article_id=20171204_united-continental-holdings-hits-a-bullish-technical-trigger&source=TM_insights

Yes, entered last Tue at 2.42, and exited on Fri at 3.58. Not all of them have been as successful.

 

I was so fascinated by the posts on this thread (thanks to the regulars like Niktam, krisbee, greenspan etc) that I signed up to CML about a month ago and have thus far completed 21 trades on a 'proof of concept' basis to see if there is a possibility of using CML as a strategy. Most trades have been long calls, and in this bull market, that's like having the wind behind you when you're sailing. I realise that 21 is not a large enough sample size, and I would like to get to at least a 100 trades, both pre- and post- earnings, long calls, short put spreads, IC's etc before I formulate a structured plan for trading CML ideas. But so far the results are good - an average gain of 9.6%, which includes me not managing some of the trades as well as I should have done.

 

For me the the benefits of trading CML ideas are:

 

- low maintenance (almost set and forget in some cases) as long as you have stops/limits in place

- scalable - very easy to have large contracts sizes as many trades are single leg

- low comms - again this due to the single-leg nature, 

- easier fills - dare I say it, due to the single leg nature; also because the profit/loss levels are much higher (40%), it's OK to pay a little more when buying.

- tons of opportunities - a lot of stocks are suitable for these trades, and we often get a double-trip on the ones where there are post-earnings trades too.

 

Negatives :

- feels a little like a lottery, or more of a gamble, as opposed to our carefully crafted, well-analysed, patiently bought cals and hedged straddles

- need to have a large number of trades on the go, so that the losers will be overcome by the winners

 

So far, I'm thoroughly enjoying the kaleidoscope that is CML, and hope to make this a core part of my portfolio.

Happy trading

 

Edited by zxcv64
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zxcv64 Hero Member

zxcv64

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Anyone getting in this ? Supposed to enter today

Yep, I'm in both the COST and NAV trades.

I also have the DG and AZO post-earnings trades

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171118132758_XFWtaw8SVkZ9ROSL

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11712&app=news&cml_article_id=20170918_the-volatility-option-trade-after-earnings-in-autozone-inc&source=TM_insights

 

 

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Posted

Bot NAV Jan 5 40 calls for $2.00  Earnings on 12/19 BMO.   I went out farther as NAV has often gone up after earnings; so this would give me a reason to hold through earnings if it falls apart before earnings.

akito Hero Member

akito

Posted
Posted (edited)

Great find, @krisbee. I opened NAV 42.5 12/29 calls yesterday for 0.8 debit. Closed right now for 1.4 credit. 75% gain. (Only had 1/8 allocation) I see the backtest has average gains of 200%+ for the 30 delta, but I'll take the conservative route and take the profits now. (Also, looking at the backtest, the most iteration in August had a 59% gain)

 

Not much, if any, profit on the straddle though. Had 4:1 ratio, same as SBatch's setup.

Edited by akito
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Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, IgorK said:

WOW! ADBE and COST started so low...

MU is getting painful as well. At this point it's not worth the commissions to close.. I'm going to break a rule and not use a stop loss, ugh. 

At least COST was up before it came down for me, still ~10% in the green. It has time. ORCL gave away some of it's gains. Not sure what's going on with tech.

Sold NAV for ~70% profit (missed the peak a bit). Covers a bit of the pain. Thanks @krisbee 

NAV straddle doing pretty swell too. Not really at profit taking levels. I went with a strangle too, but at least only 4:1 ratio.

IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, akito said:

 

@krisbee, I'm curious, how did you get this link? I didn't see Ophir post it on his blog or his twitter. I even did a search through twitter.

blog

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/lite.php?app=news&referral=menu

twitter search

https://twitter.com/search?l=&q=nav from%3AOphirGottlieb&src=typd&lang=en

I am in ADBE 177.5 for 3.10 and COST 180 for 2.55. Theoretically we have almost 3 days. Let's see.

MU I am in Yoesters's 44 calendar.

krisbee Hero Member

krisbee

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, akito said:

 

@krisbee, I'm curious, how did you get this link? I didn't see Ophir post it on his blog or his twitter. I even did a search through twitter.

blog

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/lite.php?app=news&referral=menu

twitter search

https://twitter.com/search?l=&q=nav from%3AOphirGottlieb&src=typd&lang=en

I follow lot more guys, and its from one of them. (we use to get many such links, I filter it and post it here)

akito Hero Member

akito

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, krisbee said:

I follow lot more guys, and its from one of them. (we use to get many such links, I filter it and post it here)

Ah, ok. Gotcha. Keep it up!

IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, siddharth310584 said:

What do ppl feel about the adbe and cost charts. 

I don't like what I see so far for both. Is it a good idea to add to the existing position while it's down?

IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, IgorK said:

I am in ADBE 177.5 for 3.10 and COST 180 for 2.55. Theoretically we have almost 3 days. Let's see.

MU I am in Yoesters's 44 calendar.

 

9 minutes ago, IgorK said:

I don't like what I see so far for both. Is it a good idea to add to the existing position while it's down?

Added one contract for each position. Now 2.68 for ADBE and 2.35 for COST. Hopefully it recovers.

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Posted
12 minutes ago, IgorK said:

I don't like what I see so far for both. Is it a good idea to add to the existing position while it's down?

Not unless you are only in at a half position.  That’s my opinion.  

  • Thanks 1
Maji Hero Member

Maji

Posted
Posted

I think the markets are gyrating while waiting for the FOMC meeting outcome.. the announcement is at 2pm on 12/13/2017. 

I am hoping that the markets take off after that... before the so called correction that all the pundits are talking about :)

Maji Hero Member

Maji

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, krisbee said:

I follow lot more guys, and its from one of them. (we use to get many such links, I filter it and post it here)

Are these members of SO that post here or are they posting in other forums?

Thank you for the info.

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