CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

[siddharth]

@NikTam  seeking your expert advice. Do you think Amat still has room to run into close ?

[siddharth]

20 hours ago, NikTam said:

I am still holding ADI but that's it.  I think there have been more losers than winners lately for me on the P.E. momentum trades -- need to update my spreadsheet this weekend. 

But it's no surprise that these plays really are creatures of the overall trend - with some exceptions.

Also. Adi. Though still up is lagging others. Is this cause for concern ? There was a breakout but it quickly receded. 

[Sirion]

 

Oops. Forgot to close CSCO for slight loss yesterday. Would have been about a 12% loss. Thought earnings was tomorrow... that's what I get for relying on IB's earnings date email. Got super lucky though, closed for 170% gain.

 

On the plus side, ADI and AMAT are doing well today. 

13 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

@NikTam  seeking your expert advice. Do you think Amat still has room to run into close ?

Personally, I'm going to hold until this afternoon. There's a chance it'll pull back though. I will continue to hold ADI as well until profit targets are hit.

 

 

[NikTam]

5 minutes ago, Sirion said:

 

Oops. Forgot to close CSCO for slight loss yesterday. Would have been about a 12% loss. Thought earnings was tomorrow... that's what I get for relying on IB's earnings date email. Got super lucky though, closed for 170% gain.

 

On the plus side, ADI and AMAT are doing well today. 

Personally, I'm going to hold until this afternoon. There's a chance it'll pull back though. I will continue to hold ADI as well until profit targets are hit.

 

 

Nice outcome for you on CSCO!  I'm watching AMAT take off -- which I bailed on a couple of days ago.  ADI is struggling to keep up.  Not a great week for me.

[Maji]

The last couple of weeks saw corrections in the market and the bullish trades mostly suffered. No surprise... 

The thing to watch is whether today is a dead cat bounce or is it a reversal... too bad we can only find that out in hindsight. 

Good luck everyone with your trades.

[siddharth]

5 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Nice outcome for you on CSCO!  I'm watching AMAT take off -- which I bailed on a couple of days ago.  ADI is struggling to keep up.  Not a great week for me.

Do you think it’s pruddnt to take whatever we can on adi and bail now. 

 

Also, I entered the intu trade as specified in the cml  mails. 

[NikTam]

1 hour ago, siddharth310584 said:

Do you think it’s pruddnt to take whatever we can on adi and bail now. 

 

Also, I entered the intu trade as specified in the cml  mails. 

I think ADI is looking pretty good for more upside...I'm hanging on.  But the tax reform legislation is the tail wagging the dog right now -- so who knows?

[krisbee]

On 11/13/2017 at 12:30 PM, krisbee said:

Stock ADI

Earnings: Optionslam 11/21/2017

Strategy: enter Pre earning and exit pre earnings. Buy 40 delta CALL

Backtest URL: http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11793&app=news&cml_article_id=20171106_the-5-day-pre-earnings-momentum-in-analog-devices

 

closed with 12.2% profit. GUYS. Believe it or not, I got commissions back on both the opening and closing of this trade.

btw, I closed now checking the earnings date with a TYPO for ATI instead of ADI. Anyways, happy to close MAR, NVDA, ATI all 3 out of 3 for profit from cmlviz.

 

Edited May 4, 2019 by krisbee

[NikTam]

@krisbee  Those were all great trades.  Nicely done!

I have to check out how you're getting paid for making trades -- is that based on volume of trades and/or contracts?

[krisbee]

3 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@krisbee  Those were all great trades.  Nicely done!

I have to check out how you're getting paid for making trades -- is that based on volume of trades and/or contracts?

i'm not sure if u r with Interactive Brokers. I NEVER got commissions back like this with others. it happens when a contract is 1 leg. (at least that's the pattern that I encountered)

[NikTam]

No I'm still with TOS.  What do you normally pay for trade?  I pay $1 per contract -- both getting in and getting out.

[krisbee]

Stock: INTU

Earnings: 11/20/2017

Strategy: open 3 days before earnings (which is 11/15/2017), 40 delta call. Close 1 day before.

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11794&app=news&cml_article_id=20171103_swing-trading-earnings-momentum-in-intuit

 

 

 

[Sirion]

Ah crap, I missed out on INTU. Considering it's solid uptick today and the short term nature of the trade, going to pass on it.

In good news, my order on AMAT got filled, I'm out for 40% profit. It's continued upward from there another 8% or so, so if you've held on good for you!

ADI is getting close to target. I may take it off the table at EOD if it's still over 30% gain.

 

 

[zxcv64]

I think there is still potential with INTU - a lot of the rise seems to happen on the day of the earnings (which are after market close). 

I'm in

 

[NikTam]

 

58 minutes ago, krisbee said:

Stock: INTU

Earnings: 11/20/2017

Strategy: open 3 days before earnings (which is 11/15/2017), 40 delta call. Close 1 day before.

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11794&app=news&cml_article_id=20171103_swing-trading-earnings-momentum-in-intuit

 

 

 

 

Thanks @krisbee

BOT INTU P.E. Long the 155 call (54 delta) at 5.04 for half position.  I have GTC order for other half at 4.90 if it pulls back.  Earning is AMC on Monday 11/20. 

I will hold into Monday.  My Custom Earnings setup is buy 1 day before earnings and sell 0 day before earnings.  Very high back-testing results.

 

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171116183532_DX0w8bSAmfEexZi2

 

Filled other half on at 5.15 -- so changed my mind.  House just passed tax bill.  Will watch this like a hawk.

Edited November 16, 2017 by NikTam

[cuegis]

This is probably the wrong place for this but, I would suggest keeping your eyes on commodities.

If you are at IB, and have the standard "Global" account,then you can trade anything.

Commodities have many advantages that, equities, etf's etc, do not have.

There is no pattern day trading restrictions.

The margining system (SPAN) is much more flexible that Reg-T.

Anyway, Sugar had a major breakout today.

A sugar future is for 112,000 pounds of sugar. This is the underlying on which the futures options are based on.

So..001 cent, in options (or futures) terms, = $112

1 tick is .0001 cent, which is $11.20.

So, for example, an option that costs .0040 costs $448 in actual dollars.

There is a LOT of money to be made in this arena, and even though it requires the same thorough knowledge of options, as anything else...there are so many other things, events, that can be used to locate unique opportunities.

And, there are no earnings. So that is a whole field that you can forget about.

There are, in agricultural commodities, "crop reports".

This can be approached in the same way we do with earnings, as it is a "known/unknown" event.

Take a look at sugar.....

[NikTam]

@cuegis  I just opened an account with Trade Station because I like their charting for futures and forex.  Both are on my radar for future trading opportunities.  I'm in paper-trade mode right now. 

[Kim]

We have a dedicated subforum for Futures Trading. Lets use that forum for any futures related discussions. Just open a new topic and post any relevant information there. I think it will be very useful to many members.

[cuegis]

3 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@cuegis  I just opened an account with Trade Station because I like their charting for futures and forex.  Both are on my radar for future trading opportunities.  I'm in paper-trade mode right now. 

I actually purchased (or was it leased) Trade Station, right when it was a brand new product.

This was like the early 1990's. There were virtually no tools available for trading, that were any good.

But, I used TS for many years until tons of software , for every possible niche, came on the market.

But, when brokerages, like IB started having having their own, free, platforms, with tools that were better than anything you could buy, that everyone started going down that route.

So,the trade stations of the world, had to figure out something they could do to remain relevant, and they got into the brokerage business.

I would be interested in how good ( or not) their current platform is....and how do their commissions compare to the rest of the industry?

[cuegis]

7 minutes ago, Kim said:

We have a dedicated subforum for Futures Trading. Lets use that forum for any futures related discussions. Just open a new topic and post any relevant information there. I think it will be very useful to many members.

Will do. But,I just looked at it and it looks like nothing has been posted since 2014.

I guess there is not much interest.

[NikTam]

@cuegis  I like the platform and the tools for futures and forex but I don't plan to trade from it.  For $500 minimum account I have access to it all with no monthly fees.  I still like TOS the best for options trading - but I'm trying to get a better deal on pricing.  One reason I have backed away from calendars is that multi legged trades that are under $1 per contract can easily cost $40-$60 to enter, and the same to exit.  For a profit target of 10% to 15% that gets impractical.

[zxcv64]

26 minutes ago, cuegis said:

Anyway, Sugar had a major breakout today.

A sugar future is for 112,000 pounds of sugar. This is the underlying on which the futures options are based on.

So..001 cent, in options (or futures) terms, = $112

1 tick is .0001 cent, which is $11.20.

So, for example, an option that costs .0040 costs $448 in actual dollars.

@cuegis if you continue on this topic in the Futures board, I would be interested in following this. 

Also, do you trade options on futures on commodities, or do you just trade futures?

 

For those interested, the symbol for Sugar futures on IB are 'SB Mar', 'SB May', 'SB Jul'.

 

Edited November 16, 2017 by zxcv64

[NikTam]

I would also be interested.

 

[cuegis]

1 minute ago, NikTam said:

@cuegis  I like the platform and the tools for futures and forex but I don't plan to trade from it.  For $500 minimum account I have access to it all with no monthly fees.  I still like TOS the best for options trading - but I'm trying to get a better deal on pricing.  One reason I have backed away from calendars is that multi legged trades that are under $1 per contract can easily cost $40-$60 to enter, and the same to exit.  For a profit target of 10% to 15% that gets impractical.

So, if I just leave $500 in a TS account, they will give me their platform, and all of the tools,including Option Station ( does that still exist).....?????

[NikTam]

I just did it. Not sure about Option Station.  I just downloaded the platform half hour ago.

 

Edited November 16, 2017 by NikTam

[apsoccermd]

2 minutes ago, cuegis said:

So, if I just leave $500 in a TS account, they will give me their platform, and all of the tools,including Option Station ( does that still exist).....?????

I am actually playing aggros bounce via ETF.. There few ETF's that seems to have solid options chains: JJG, SGG, JO, CORN, WHEAT... i defiantly believe that is a next great trade on a long side.. Would be interested to get involved via options as well.. 

[cuegis]

19 minutes ago, zxcv64 said:

@cuegis if you continue on this topic in the Futures board, I would be interested in following this. 

Also, do you trade options on futures on commodities, or do you just trade futures?

 

For those interested, the symbol for Sugar futures on IB are 'SB Mar', 'SB May', 'SB Jul'.

 

Yes...I actually had a seat on, what was called the  "Coffee, Sugar, Cocoa Exchange" , that I bought in 1980.

That , plus the metals (gold,silver, copper), and Heating Oil, is where I started in this whole thing.

There were no options on futures, on any of the exchanges, until 1982, when they tried out a "trial" program on 3 commodities (gold, bonds, and sugar) to see if there was any interest. I literally traded the first sugar option, on the exchange in 1982.

Then, from 1982-to about 1986, they continued to add more and more options on more commodities.

Crude became the best for a long time.

Right now, there is one problem, .

With IB, for example, as a "non-professional" account, all , real-time" data, is virtually free.

There are a few "bundles" that include commodities, and their options, for either free, or like $4.50 per month.

But, as I just found out an hour ago. The only products, where real-time data have costs that are prohibitive, are only coffee, sugar, and cocoa. It is $120.75 per month for both professional, and non-professional alike.

It came about when the "ICE" exchange bought out the CSC exchange, and were looking for ways to create revenues.. Yeah, $120/month for live data oughtta do it!

Anyway, it is free with a 15 minute time delay.

You can create spreads, and work everything , exactly the same as you do with any other product....charts etc. options analysis. But, just be aware that everything is on a 15 minute delay (or shell out $120....you might eventually find that is might be worth it).

I think if you are sharp, like everyone here, and are aware that you are working with a 15 min delay....there are tons of strategies that can be used, that do not require real-time data.

I actually made some trades today (for the first time under these conditions).

They are very liquid markets,so that's a plus.

Edited November 16, 2017 by cuegis

[cuegis]

25 minutes ago, apsoccermd said:

I am actually playing aggros bounce via ETF.. There few ETF's that seems to have solid options chains: JJG, SGG, JO, CORN, WHEAT... i defiantly believe that is a next great trade on a long side.. Would be interested to get involved via options as well.. 

Thanks, stupid me...I didn't even know about these etf's.

I'm looking at SGG, and the options are fairly liquid.

I need to examine the rest

[apsoccermd]

Again.. not to hijak the thread.. here are the most liquid aggro ETF.. 

Here is also COT base ( Commitment of Trader ) .. 

http://www.cotbase.com/

 

Basically .. if you playing for a mean reversion .. You want to pick the side of comercial  positions  in hope the speculators will get a squeeze .. We just had a masive rip 14% in cooa (NIB)

 

These are directional trades and are very different then market nutural trades that most of the people do around here.. 

 

 

 

[cuegis]

14 minutes ago, apsoccermd said:

Again.. not to hijak the thread.. here are the most liquid aggro ETF.. 

Here is also COT base ( Commitment of Trader ) .. 

http://www.cotbase.com/

 

Basically .. if you playing for a mean reversion .. You want to pick the side of comercial  positions  in hope the speculators will get a squeeze .. We just had a masive rip 14% in cooa (NIB)

 

These are directional trades and are very different then market nutural trades that most of the people do around here.. 

 

 

 

Wow...This is great! Thank you.

[Sirion]

2 hours ago, Sirion said:

Ah crap, I missed out on INTU. Considering it's solid uptick today and the short term nature of the trade, going to pass on it.

In good news, my order on AMAT got filled, I'm out for 40% profit. It's continued upward from there another 8% or so, so if you've held on good for you!

ADI is getting close to target. I may take it off the table at EOD if it's still over 30% gain.

 

 

Sold out of ADI at end of day for 30% gain. Took the win with how volatile the markets have been lately, and I still have a short vol position rolling into tomorrow so wanted to ease off the gas a bit. 

[skydragon]

1 hour ago, NikTam said:

... I still like TOS the best for options trading - but I'm trying to get a better deal on pricing.  One reason I have backed away from calendars is that multi legged trades that are under $1 per contract can easily cost $40-$60 to enter, and the same to exit.  For a profit target of 10% to 15% that gets impractical.

@NikTam The fee agreement between SO members and Tradier may be of interest to you (in case you weren't aware of it).  I would be curious to know where and what deal you come up with.  I also have felt the pain of heavy commissions on the kinds of trades of which you speak.  There are a few forum and blog topics the go into more detail on these subjects.  E.g., here's the Tradier link:  https://steadyoptions.com/forums/forum/topic/3318-tradier-brokerage-special-offer/

 

[NikTam]

@skydragon I think I opened an account with Tradier a few months ago but never funded it....I have to look at that again.  Are you using Tradier?  I've not seen much feedback on it.  I think Kim had arranged a special deal for SO members....

[NikTam]

Still in ADI and entered INTU for a short duration earnings trade.  Lots of positive momentum today -- Nasdaq, Walmart, tax bill passed in the House.  And I probably just jinxed it!

[skydragon]

Just now, NikTam said:

@skydragon I think I opened an account with Tradier a few months ago but never funded it....I have to look at that again.  Are you using Tradier?  I've not seen much feedback on it.  I think Kim had arranged a special deal for SO members....

@NikTam I am not using it ... yet.  But am giving it serious consideration & will likely give it a try.  No review beats a personal test drive.

[siddharth]

18 hours ago, Sirion said:

Sold out of ADI at end of day for 30% gain. Took the win with how volatile the markets have been lately, and I still have a short vol position rolling into tomorrow so wanted to ease off the gas a bit. 

What did you get into adi with. I’m only at 10% gain but i feel i entered close to eod 

[Sirion]

Just now, siddharth310584 said:

What did you get into adi with. I’m only at 10% gain but i feel i entered close to eod 

ADI Dec15'17 90 CALL @CBOE @ 2.25, around 10am on Nov 15. I entered late and benefited from the market dip to get a good price.

[siddharth]

That makes sense. I entered the previous day near end of day

 

im still in adi and intu and will probably hold till Monday. 

[krisbee]

On 11/16/2017 at 12:49 PM, krisbee said:

Stock: INTU

Earnings: 11/20/2017

Strategy: open 3 days before earnings (which is 11/15/2017), 40 delta call. Close 1 day before.

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11794&app=news&cml_article_id=20171103_swing-trading-earnings-momentum-in-intuit

 

 

 

ON Travel. my GTC filled for 15% profit. right now it should be more than 22%.

I'm happy with 100% success rate. 5 out of 5.

MAR, NVDA, AMAT, INTU, ADI

[krisbee]

Stock: THO

Earnings is: Nov 11/27/2017

Very good Probability of 40 Delta call entering 1 week ahead.

I got into it yesterday, I'm 40% up on it so far.

    BOT    THO Dec15'17 135 CALL    3.40    USD    PSE    NOV 16 15:23:55   
 

[siddharth]

What made you go in yesterday ? 7 days before would be 11/20. With the market down, this is still up. Did you see anything that made you get in ? Still learning so hope to see it nex time   wonder if it’s too late to enter now. 

[siddharth]

Intu is up quite a bit today. Should we close the trade ?

[apsoccermd]

10 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Intu is up quite a bit today. Should we close the trade ?

today would be 1 day before earning part...

[siddharth]

Ignore This. I was having a moment.

 

INTU:

 I bought the 155 calls, whose delta is now about 100. Does it make sense to close the profites out for this one and then buy the 50 delta calls.

 

Thanks,

Sid

 

Edited November 17, 2017 by siddharth310584

[NikTam]

23 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Ignore This. I was having a moment.

 

INTU:

 I bought the 155 calls, whose delta is now about 100. Does it make sense to close the profites out for this one and then buy the 50 delta calls.

 

Thanks,

Sid

 

I'm still holding INTU with a small profit of 5%.   Not sure if I want to hang on through the weekend since I have to exit on Monday -- unless I want to hold through earnings.

I am curious -- I'm seeing the 155 calls as a delta 57 on TOS option chain.....?

Edited November 17, 2017 by NikTam

[siddharth]

Yeah. I messed up the delta. It’s 57. Didn’t your backrest via cml show it had good results though. To buy today and sell on Monday. 

[NikTam]

56 minutes ago, krisbee said:

Stock: THO

Earnings is: Nov 11/27/2017

Very good Probability of 40 Delta call entering 1 week ahead.

I got into it yesterday, I'm 40% up on it so far.

    BOT    THO Dec15'17 135 CALL    3.40    USD    PSE    NOV 16 15:23:55   
 

That's a great trade but I'm seeing earnings as 12/27 (Earnings Whispers website).

[NikTam]

3 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Yeah. I messed up the delta. It’s 57. Didn’t your backrest via cml show it had good results though. To buy today and sell on Monday. 

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171117204340_GboQkXdIuIZzSOav  

Holding into the day of earnings (above) gives slightly better results than exiting one day before earnings (below).

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171117204451_bSi0hvDrsBafhRcS

But there is a weekend involved so I think that adds risk.  

[bigbreak]

16 minutes ago, NikTam said:

That's a great trade but I'm seeing earnings as 12/27 (Earnings Whispers website).

 

Thor Industries website says preliminary earnings date is:

 

preliminary date for its fiscal 2018 first-quarter earnings release will be November 27, 2017, after market close.  The final release date will be confirmed approximately one week prior to the release.

 

Edited November 17, 2017 by bigbreak

[4REAL]

14 minutes ago, NikTam said:

That's a great trade but I'm seeing earnings as 12/27 (Earnings Whispers website).

 

THO announced (on Oct31) a PRELIMINARY EARNINGS RELEASE DATE for Nov27 (see link)

http://ir.thorindustries.com/press-release-and-events-calendar/press-releases/press-release-details/2017/Thor-Announces-Preliminary-Earnings-Release-Date-q118/default.aspx

final ER date should be confirmed next week

 

Edited November 17, 2017 by 4REAL