CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

[NikTam]

Now you tell us! :-)

it’s interesting that this stock scores so poorly on bull squeeze.  I’m guessing bc what you describe was happening so quickly.  

Edited November 7, 2017 by NikTam

[cuegis]

1 minute ago, NikTam said:

Now you tell us! :-)

Sorry!....I just had the feeling that directional trading, charts, etc. was "frowned upon" here...so I didn't know where, and how to start a conversation.

I thought I would be "booed" out of the room!

[IgorK]

1 hour ago, NikTam said:

 

NVDA is looking good.   @IgorK why did you get out?

It is  really good now. 

[NikTam]

Understood.  

[cuegis]

2 minutes ago, IgorK said:

It is  really good now. 

It was always good today. I didn't get involved because, even though the potential profits are huge, I wasn't feeling comfortable taking on the risk that goes along with that.

[IgorK]

23 hours ago, IgorK said:

SEE -  1/17 SEE 44/46 vertical at .72 and 45 CALL for 65. Will see.

Out of 45 CALL for 70. 7.69% gain.   4.25% after commisisons.

@cuegis @NikTam Does it make sense to hold 44/46 vertical till the end of the week?

 

[siddharth]

12 minutes ago, IgorK said:

Out of 45 CALL for 70. 7.69% gain.   4.25% after commisisons.

@cuegis @NikTam Does it make sense to hold 44/46 vertical till the end of the week?

 

Isn’t earnings tomorrow bmo. Would you. It want to close before then. And you expiration is nov17 right ?

[siddharth]

@NikTam  what’s is your plan with TDG ?

[IgorK]

1 minute ago, siddharth310584 said:

Isn’t earnings tomorrow bmo. Would you. It want to close before then. And you expiration is nov17 right ?

Right. That's why I am asking. Still about 10 days.

Edited November 7, 2017 by IgorK

[cuegis]

40 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Isn’t earnings tomorrow bmo. Would you. It want to close before then. And you expiration is nov17 right ?

I have SEE today AC.

I'm holding the Dec 15 $44/$46 vertical.

I have to get out before the close.

I just need to avoid that risk, and I think, when it then settle down in 1-2 days, there will be plenty of things to do withthis stock.

[cuegis]

Sorry, although it dosn't matter SEE is tomorrow BO... Earnings announcement* for SEE: Nov 08, 2017. Sealed Air Corporation is expected* to report earnings on 11/08/2017 before market open. The report will be for the fiscal Quarter ending Sep 2017. According to Zacks Investment Research, based on 6 analysts' forecasts, the consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $0.46.

[IgorK]

6 minutes ago, cuegis said:

I have SEE today AC.

I'm holding the Dec 15 $44/$46 vertical.

I have to get out before the close.

I just need to avoid that risk, and I think, when it then settle down in 1-2 days, there will be plenty of things to do withthis stock.

I am legging out from 44/46. Bought back 46 CALL.  Hope to sell 44.

[NikTam]

@siddharth310584  TDG announces earning BMO on Thursday the 9th according to it's website.  I'm going to hold into tomorrow.  Not looking great at the moment.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171107181135_W5L6BIpoSW8hw9nS

Only the 1 year back-test is 100%. 

[IgorK]

1 hour ago, IgorK said:

I am legging out from 44/46. Bought back 46 CALL.  Hope to sell 44.

Looks like waited too much. May hold 44 call for a couple of days. Maybe it will come back a bit.

[cuegis]

I just dumped my Dec 44/46 vertical.

Earlier inthe day, when we went from negative to positive, I thought there might be follow through on that.

But, back down .27 this late in the day, is enough for me bail.

[IgorK]

1 hour ago, IgorK said:

Looks like waited too much. May hold 44 call for a couple of days. Maybe it will come back a bit.

Out of all SEEs with -7.28% after commissions.

[NikTam]

My P-E positions:  TDG looking better (it closed .33 higher than yesterday) -- I will exit tomorrow.  NVDA had a good day today -- I plan to exit on Thursday.  HD looks like it may be turning around - I plan to hold at least until Friday.  I exited SEE this morning for a 15% loss. 

HD:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171107205455_SL2aDG48Bn3WCPzh

NVDA:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171107081710_OVnderlK0LEmvnpk

TDG:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171107085110_IZzSOavH5J5IS7q6

SEE:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171107082202_qdAwkSiHkfglEav0

 

So the one we thought was the most promising on the trade machine and the charts -- SEE -- turned out to be a loser this time around.  It reinforces my thinking of doing the homework but also doing many smaller trades -- it's a numbers game.

Edited November 7, 2017 by NikTam

[cuegis]

1 hour ago, NikTam said:

My P-E positions:  TDG looking better (it closed .33 higher than yesterday) -- I will exit tomorrow.  NVDA had a good day today -- I plan to exit on Thursday.  HD looks like it may be turning around - I plan to hold at least until Friday.  I exited SEE this morning for a 15% loss. 

HD:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171107205455_SL2aDG48Bn3WCPzh

NVDA:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171107081710_OVnderlK0LEmvnpk

TDG:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171107085110_IZzSOavH5J5IS7q6

SEE:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171107082202_qdAwkSiHkfglEav0

 

So the one we thought was the most promising on the trade machine and the charts -- SEE -- turned out to be a loser this time around.  It reinforces my thinking of doing the homework but also doing many smaller trades -- it's a numbers game.

I forgot how I came upon SEE

Now I can't remember which scan put SEE on my radar. I think it was either the "Squeeze" scan, "pre-earnings" "long call" scan, under the "Pro-Scan" tab.

So, because of my forgetfulness , I can't judge whether CML was helpful or not!

Also, when you say your "P-E Positions" does that mean "post earnings?"

 

OK, never mind...I just ran your link to your backtest. SEE came to us from the scan about going long 3 days before earnings. Well, it has been 7 and 0 until today.

 

It was K that popped up from the squeeze scan. And that could turn out to be a great trade.

Edited November 7, 2017 by cuegis

[cuegis]

2 hours ago, NikTam said:

My P-E positions:  TDG looking better (it closed .33 higher than yesterday) -- I will exit tomorrow.  NVDA had a good day today -- I plan to exit on Thursday.  HD looks like it may be turning around - I plan to hold at least until Friday.  I exited SEE this morning for a 15% loss. 

HD:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171107205455_SL2aDG48Bn3WCPzh

NVDA:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171107081710_OVnderlK0LEmvnpk

TDG:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171107085110_IZzSOavH5J5IS7q6

SEE:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171107082202_qdAwkSiHkfglEav0

 

So the one we thought was the most promising on the trade machine and the charts -- SEE -- turned out to be a loser this time around.  It reinforces my thinking of doing the homework but also doing many smaller trades -- it's a numbers game.

This is driving me insane, so I need another set of trained eyes to tellme what the heckis going on.

This is the CML backtest...

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171107195340_FiEUax1UOKMrsTvc

Look at the trades results. On Dec 29,2015, with the stock (FMS) trading at $42.91, they purchased Jan 15 45 calls for .22 cents.

Then, 2 days later , on Dec 31st, with the stock at $41.84, they sold those calls for $2.50, creating $1135 profit on 5 calls.

The stock price never traded higher than when the calls were purchased.

The previous trade, before this one, from May 2015, is exactly the same, only more exaggerated.

 

That is why the backtest shows these results.....

 

 

Expiration:

30 Days

Risked:

$118 

Total Return:

 $2545 

% Return:

2166%

Avg % Return:

429.4%

Commissions:

 $20

% Wins:

100%

Wins: 4

Losses: 0

Avg Win: $636

Avg Loss: -

Avg % Win: 429.4%

Avg % Loss: 0%

Gross Gain: $2545

Gross Loss: -

It's driving me crazy.......

 

[Maji]

25 minutes ago, cuegis said:

It was K that popped up from the squeeze scan. And that could turn out to be a great trade.

I am going to wait a few more weeks before I jump into the squeeze trades.. CML is still working on them... I jumped into a trade only to find out that it did not appear in the scan next day because they are still tinkering around. I had a small position and I got out with a small loss, so I chalk it to tuition. 

SEE calls lost money for me too but that is the name of the game... I agree with @NikTam ... it is a numbers game and got to keep at it.

 

[NikTam]

Pre-Earnings 

Did you do the put debit spread on K?  

I stepped back based on your comments and it bounced up a bit today - a bear flag?  I’m still watching.  I like the risk/reward.  

[cuegis]

5 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Pre-Earnings 

Did you do the put debit spread on K?  

I stepped back based on your comments and it bounced up a bit today - a bear flag?  I’m still watching.  I like the risk/reward.  

If it were a "bear flag" then, the 6 days (since the big gap up following earnings), would basically have higher highs,and higher lows. Just the opposite of a "bull flag" where it is a "pullback" following a big move up.

[Yowster]

1 hour ago, cuegis said:

This is driving me insane, so I need another set of trained eyes to tellme what the heckis going on.

This is the CML backtest...

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171107195340_FiEUax1UOKMrsTvc

Look at the trades results. On Dec 29,2015, with the stock (FMS) trading at $42.91, they purchased Jan 15 45 calls for .22 cents.

Then, 2 days later , on Dec 31st, with the stock at $41.84, they sold those calls for $2.50, creating $1135 profit on 5 calls.

The stock price never traded higher than when the calls were purchased.

The previous trade, before this one, from May 2015, is exactly the same, only more exaggerated.

 

That is why the backtest shows these results.....

 

 

Expiration:

30 Days

Risked:

$118 

Total Return:

 $2545 

% Return:

2166%

Avg % Return:

429.4%

Commissions:

 $20

% Wins:

100%

Wins: 4

Losses: 0

Avg Win: $636

Avg Loss: -

Avg % Win: 429.4%

Avg % Loss: 0%

Gross Gain: $2545

Gross Loss: -

It's driving me crazy.......

 

@cuegisCould be a data problem, but then again IMO the CMLviz software should do sanity checks for this kind of erroneous data.   I've found many bugs like this when I dig into trade details, and why I always tell people to dig into the trade details and not simply rely on the summary data.   It's a relative new product and there are definitely still software bugs out there. 

[cuegis]

55 minutes ago, Yowster said:

@cuegisCould be a data problem, but then again IMO the CMLviz software should do sanity checks for this kind of erroneous data.   I've found many bugs like this when I dig into trade details, and why I always tell people to dig into the trade details and not simply rely on the summary data.   It's a relative new product and there are definitely still software bugs out there. 

I think I should bring this exact point to their attention so they can get on the ball! 

They have a great "big picture" concept, that seems to fall apart, at times, when you dig deep, past the beautiful results!

[Djtux]

3 hours ago, cuegis said:

This is driving me insane, so I need another set of trained eyes to tellme what the heckis going on.

This is the CML backtest...

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171107195340_FiEUax1UOKMrsTvc

Look at the trades results. On Dec 29,2015, with the stock (FMS) trading at $42.91, they purchased Jan 15 45 calls for .22 cents.

Then, 2 days later , on Dec 31st, with the stock at $41.84, they sold those calls for $2.50, creating $1135 profit on 5 calls.

The stock price never traded higher than when the calls were purchased.

The previous trade, before this one, from May 2015, is exactly the same, only more exaggerated.

 

That is why the backtest shows these results.....

It's driving me crazy.......

 

Seems that TOS Thinkback sees the same thing.

Could be the data coming from OPRA is garbage due to liquidity. You can see that the stock only have a volume of 71000.

You could argue that they could filter out those ticker as it's not very liquid.

 

[cuegis]

19 minutes ago, Djtux said:

Seems that TOS Thinkback sees the same thing.

Could be the data coming from OPRA is garbage due to liquidity. You can see that the stock only have a volume of 71000.

You could argue that they could filter out those ticker as it's not very liquid.

 

Yes. I have a long list of arguments that I'm going to present to them tomorrow, in an email to their support.

This is just one very obvious example but, I keep coming across these kind of things way too often to give me the level of confidence I need to have.

[NikTam]

Thanks for pointing this out.  Keeping it simple and obvious is the way I'm proceeding -- with caution.

Looking at these two:

 

 

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171108022454_z6w4KcyOZBAl2E4L

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171108033655_gRqGVX0vwSE5FlGS

 

 

Edited November 8, 2017 by NikTam

[siddharth]

@NikTam  still holding tdg ? 

[NikTam]

Yes.  But I have a tight stop loss set up on it.  I don't like losing money on the last day so I will settle for a BE if I have to and I may give up a nice rally later today.  In my experience these long calls either take off, or they don't.  

And based on that philosophy I was just stopped out at a small profit on NVDA.  I had high hopes for that position but a huge red candle this morning is not what I want to live with for the rest of the day.  If I see a major turnaround on the 30 minute chart I may get back in for an attempt at a scalp - NVDA is explosive stock.

Edited November 8, 2017 by NikTam

[cuegis]

I guess I didn't SEE correctly yesterday!!!!!

[IgorK]

3 minutes ago, cuegis said:

I guess I didn't SEE correctly yesterday!!!!!

Yep.

[siddharth]

4 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Yes.  But I have a tight stop loss set up on it.  I don't like losing money on the last day so I will settle for a BE if I have to and I may give up a nice rally later today.  In my experience these long calls either take off, or they don't.  

And based on that philosophy I was just stopped out at a small profit on NVDA.  I had high hopes for that position but a huge red candle this morning is not what I want to live with for the rest of the day.  If I see a major turnaround on the 30 minute chart I may get back in for an attempt at a scalp - NVDA is explosive stock.

Do you want mind telling me what you’re stop is ? 

[NikTam]

I know.  But even holding a straddle through earnings on SEE is not convincing on back-test.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171108151408_2kIU8jWkhTwIYaGU

 

[NikTam]

8.80 Stop and 8.70 Limit.  I also have a GTC limit at 40% profit.  I got in at 8.97.  So I would take a small loss if stopped out.

I'm about to get stopped out.

Edited November 8, 2017 by NikTam

[NikTam]

BOT CSCO 11/17 34.5/36 vertical call for 7 day Pre-Earnings momentum trade.  Entered at .47

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171108022454_z6w4KcyOZBAl2E4L

 

Here's the Call Spread

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171108152801_soRxWnvmO1kJvqxr

Edited November 8, 2017 by NikTam

[cuegis]

SQM might have had a breakout today. Well, so far it has.

If you want to see a "bull flag", look at the 5 min of SQM

[NikTam]

That's an interesting chart.  I might nibble.

I have a bid in for a vertical 60/65 call at 1.55 but I could have easily missed the boat.

Edited November 8, 2017 by NikTam

[cuegis]

1 minute ago, NikTam said:

That's an interesting chart.  I might nibble.

I was already in it . I had Nov 60/65 verticals, and also Jan 60/65.

I have been icthing for a rally so I can dump the Nov's.

So, I was fortunate to be able to sell a few every .30 cents, on the ask today.

It is not the most liquid stock, and, you have to get to know it's "personality".

For example, more than most other stocks, NEVER chase it.

It is normal for you to see a quick $1.00 rally, which is immediately given all back.

It also works the other way just as often.

As far as the "big picture" goes....you can see that we have already had a major part, if not all of, the bull market.

Now we have been in a sideways pattern for the past 4-6 weeks.

If there is another bull leg coming, then it is a perfect candidate for a "squeeze".

What makes it difficult during this sideways period, is that you are going to get many false breakouts.

You can see it all on the "daily" chart.

So, today might, or might not, be a real one.

[NikTam]

I got filled at 1.55 so will see how it goes.  Small position.  I have an OCO of 40% gain and 25% loss.

[cuegis]

3 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I got filled at 1.55 so will see how it goes.  Small position.  I have an OCO of 40% gain and 25% loss.

Are you talking about SQM.

If so, was it the Nov 60/65 vertical?

That is the only thing that I can see trading around that price.

If it is, I would have suggested to do what I am doing, which is rolling out of Nov and into Jan.

I have already been in the Jan because they did not have Dec.

But, I just checked, and now they do have Dec.

[NikTam]

Ok.  I will take a look.  I thought if anything would happen pretty fast.  

[cuegis]

13 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Ok.  I will take a look.  I thought if anything would happen pretty fast.  

Yes, it pretty much always happens fast. But, that is why you have to be selling off small amounts as it spikes.

In my case, I am keeping a small arsenal for when the breakout (if it ever starts back up), is the "real" one.

But, like I said before, we are in a period of many false breakouts, and those happen VERY fast, then give it all right back, or sometimes even more.

This is why I keep a certain portion to trade those unknowns. So that I have short term inventory, to be able to unload on the ask, during the false spikes.

 

Today seems to be different than all of the recent false breakouts. Because, when they are false, they tend to happen right near the opening,then give back the entire rally.

Today is the first time it has broken out, and as of 11:30, it still remains higher.

Edited November 8, 2017 by cuegis

[krisbee]

HES. I think the strangles should be opened today and hold for 10 days.

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11795&app=news&cml_article_id=20171107_optimizing-volatility-trades-after-earnings-in-hess-corporation&source=TM_insights

 

[Khonsu]

15 minutes ago, krisbee said:

HES. I think the strangles should be opened today and hold for 10 days.

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11795&app=news&cml_article_id=20171107_optimizing-volatility-trades-after-earnings-in-hess-corporation&source=TM_insights

 

Didn't HES report on 10/25? Next earnings isn't until January I believe http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/report/hes

[bam1960]

17 minutes ago, Khonsu said:

Didn't HES report on 10/25? Next earnings isn't until January I believe http://www.nasdaq.com/earnings/report/hes

Correct, HES reported the 10/25 so not for another 3 months

[NikTam]

Threading the needle today.  Out of TDG with about 13% gain which came back from a near stop out.  Got out of NVDA early this morning with a small gain but would like to get back in for a scalp it if it shows a reversal.  Seems to be heading into earnings with some negative baggage at this point.  I will not be around for the very end of the market day but would not be surprised to see "informed" buyers rush back in to pick it up at a bargain -- then you know that earnings are going to be positive.  In fact  stochastic is turning up right now...watch this thing change gears rapidly!

[NikTam]

@cuegis I can roll my SQM 60/65 vertical to Dec for .45 or Jan for .50 which would make my total cost 2.00 or 2.05...thinking about it.

Earnings are 11/22 -  would I hold this through earnings?  CML doesn't give it great marks for that.  Or would you roll to January before earnings?

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171108182235_mcq9XsrMFgygP6QP

 

 

Edited November 8, 2017 by NikTam
update

[cuegis]

21 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@cuegis I can roll my SQM 60/65 vertical to Dec for .45 or Jan for .50 which would make my total cost 2.00 or 2.05...thinking about it.

Earnings are 11/22 -  would I hold this through earnings?  CML doesn't give it great marks for that.  Or would you roll to January before earnings?

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171108182235_mcq9XsrMFgygP6QP

 

I put in GTC to roll to Dec for .30 -- so if it drops today I will do that instead of getting stopped out.

Actually, I was only in Jan because there was a period of time when there was no Dec.

But, this is not an earnings trade, so, for me, I never hold trades through earnings, unless they are specifically intend to be.

Since earnings is Nov 22, I would not gain any benefit from buying Jan over Dec, because I'm going to close out everything before Nov 22.

Then, of course, this may turn out to be a failed breakout, in which case I would be getting out for stop loss purposes, even sooner.

Unless you plan to hold through earnings, I don't see any advantage in Jan over Dec for now..

And, if it turns out that this breakout follows through, and you get a nice run up between now and earnings....I would be more inclined to lock in , at least most of those gains because earnings , no matter what they are, could always cause a gap down in price, at least initially, and you don't want to give back your gains.....if it plays out that way!

Edited November 8, 2017 by cuegis

[cuegis]

25 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@cuegis I can roll my SQM 60/65 vertical to Dec for .45 or Jan for .50 which would make my total cost 2.00 or 2.05...thinking about it.

Earnings are 11/22 -  would I hold this through earnings?  CML doesn't give it great marks for that.  Or would you roll to January before earnings?

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171108182235_mcq9XsrMFgygP6QP

 

I put in GTC to roll to Dec for .30 -- so if it drops today I will do that instead of getting stopped out.

This stock tends to do crazy things.

Like this morning, as I do every morning.....I have my smartphone in my bed, and I wake up around 6 AM , for a few minutes, then turn on TWS, on the phone, just to see if anything out of the ordinary happened overnight.

Well, ES is a always accurate, because it is open but, some stocks, even at 6 AM, give some idea of where they might be trading.

.SQM closed at around $59.83 yesterday.......so, my quotes showed that the last trade was $56.83 down $3.00.

I was REALLY not happy, so I did some further exploring, and it showed a bid of $59.50, and ask of $60.

So, I convinced myself to be relieved, and went back to bed.

Ultimately, the stock did what it always does, and opened within .30 cents of the previous close.

This is what it does these days, on most days.

But, on the big run up from May to Oct......everyday, it opened like .70 cents higher, and then just kept on going!

[cuegis]

Having a good day long K.

I bought K and T yesterday.

Today I closed out T for break even, and kept all of my K.

I'm just outright long Dec 62.50 and 65 calls.

This is something that I normally wouldn't do (I would do verticals) but, I intended to hold it for only 1-2 days. So, I 'm not too worried about decay.