How straddles make or lose money
A long straddle option strategy is vega positive, gamma positive and theta negative trade. It works based on the premise that both call and put options have unlimited profit potential but limited loss. If nothing changes and the stock is stable, the straddle option will lose money every day due to the time decay, and the loss will accelerate as we get closer to expiration. For the straddle to make money, one of the two things (or both) has to happen:
1. The stock has to move (no matter which direction).
2. The IV (Implied Volatility) has to increase.
While one leg of the straddle losses up to its limit, the other leg continues to gain as long as the underlying stock rises, resulting in an overall profit. When the stock moves, one of the options will gain value faster than the other option will lose, so the overall trade will make money. If this happens, the trade can be close before expiration for a profit.
In many cases IV increase can also produce nice gains since both options will increase in value as a result from increased IV.
When to use a straddle option strategy
Straddle option is a good strategy if you believe that a stock's price will move significantly, but don't want to bet on direction. Another case is if you believe that IV of the options will increase - for example, before a significant event like earnings. I explained the latter strategy in my Seeking Alpha article Exploiting Earnings Associated Rising Volatility. IV usually increases sharply a few days before earnings, and the increase should compensate for the negative theta. If the stock moves before earnings, the position can be sold for a profit or rolled to new strikes. This is one of my favorite strategies that we use in our SteadyOptions model portfolio.
Many traders like to buy straddles before earnings and hold them through earnings hoping for a big move. While it can work sometimes, personally I Dislike Holding Straddles Through Earnings. The reason is that over time the options tend to overprice the potential move. Those options experience huge volatility drop the day after the earnings are announced. In most cases, this drop erases most of the gains, even if the stock had a substantial move.
Selection of strikes and expiration
Straddles can be a cheap black swan insurance
We like to trade pre-earnings straddles/strangles in our SteadyOptions portfolio for several reasons.
First, the risk/reward is very appealing. There are three possible scenarios:
Scenario 1: The IV increase is not enough to offset the negative theta and the stock doesn't move. In this case the trade will probably be a small loser. However, since the theta will be at least partially offset by the rising IV, the loss is likely to be in the 7-10% range. It is very unlikely to lose more than 10-15% on those trades if held 2-5 days.
Scenario 2: The IV increase offsets the negative theta and the stock doesn't move. In this case, depending on the size of the IV increase, the gains are likely to be in the 5-20% range. In some rare cases, the IV increase will be dramatic enough to produce 30-40% gains.
Scenario 3: The IV goes up followed by the stock movement. This is where the strategy really shines. It could bring few very significant winners. For example, when Google moved 7% in the first few day of July 2011, a strangle produced a 178% gain. In the same cycle, Apple's 3% move was enough to produce a 102% gain. In August 2011 when VIX jumped from 20 to 45 in a few days, I had the DIS strangle and few other trades doubled in a matter of two days.
The main risk to this strategy is earnings pre-announcements. They can cause volatility crash and significant losses.
To demonstrate the third scenario, take a look on SO trades in August 2011:
To be clear, those returns can probably happen once in a few years when the markets really crash. But if you happen to hold few straddles or strangles during those periods, you will be very happy you did.
Overall this strategy produces over 75% winning ratio with very low risk. It is very rare to lose more than 10-15% using pre earnings straddle strategy.
A long straddle option can be a good strategy under certain circumstances. However, be aware that if nothing happens in term of stock movement or IV change, the straddle will bleed money as you approach expiration. It should be used carefully, but when used correctly, it can be very profitable, without guessing the direction.
If you want to learn more about the straddle option strategy and other options strategies that we implement for our SteadyOptions portfolio, sign up for our free trial.
The following Webinar discusses different aspects of trading straddles.
Buying Premium Prior to Earnings
Can We Profit From Volatility Expansion into Earnings
Long Straddle: A Guaranteed Win?
Why We Sell Our Straddles Before Earnings
Is 5% A Good Return For Options Trades?
Want to learn more? We discuss all our trades on our forum.