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CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

NikTam

By NikTam
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NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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@cuegis  Then I consider myself to be in very good company!  I agree that price is the thing that matters -- it's the only real thing in the market at the moment.  And, yes, I am also deeply enmeshed in time frames when I look at a chart for an entry or an exit.  I would say that the indicators I value the most are actually extensions/extrapolations of price.   I like to think there is some value in gauging market sentiment -- for instance with the relationship of bollinger bands and keltner channels (John Carter's Squeeze is based on this) but I agree -- the multi-time frame charts and the candles are the main thing.

I also like your vertical idea in that you buy the 50 delta instead of the 40 and offset the increase in cost with premium from the short position.  Makes total sense.  It's very easy to see that your profit target is within the range of the long and the short.

And when you invent that "mouse" let me know!

Edited by NikTam
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zxcv64
zxcv64

Having completed a 100 CML trades, I thought I would summarise my results.    Summary : 100 trades, 66 winners, overall profit of 12.1% PER TRADE.   Here is a detailed breakdown, w

greenspan76
greenspan76

This topic was a little more active a while back and I had intended to give an update on my results at the 1 year mark, but I've been busy with other projects the last few months. My first CML trade w

cuegis
cuegis

Here is an example of how I have used CML as an adjunct to the SO calendar trades, pre earnings. We know that those calendars , on their own, are very good trades, with a great success rate.

Posted Images

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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For what it's worth: I like SEE for 3 day P-E and TDG for 3 day and and "inside" 7 day since the earnings is 11/9 BMO. (Not 11/13).  And based on charts, ICUI for 7 day even though getting in Monday will make it a 3 day  -- so another inside the margins play.  (I will call them inside straights -- seems appropriate!) 

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171106005422_ZNAjIdGRxWMd8ikq

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171104092854_NBez0MaUdKTUUBEn

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171104092326_k7ilfEPQdNJhIDcx

Except maybe for SEE, these are not textbook plays -- but I like the charts and will take a closer look tomorrow.

siddharth Hero Member

siddharth

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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, NikTam said:

For what it's worth: I like SEE for 3 day P-E and TDG for 3 day and and "inside" 7 day since the earnings is 11/9 BMO. (Not 11/13).  And based on charts, ICUI for 7 day even though getting in Monday will make it a 3 day  -- so another inside the margins play.  (I will call them inside straights -- seems appropriate!) 

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171106005422_ZNAjIdGRxWMd8ikq

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171104092854_NBez0MaUdKTUUBEn

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171104092326_k7ilfEPQdNJhIDcx

Except maybe for SEE, these are not textbook plays -- but I like the charts and will take a closer look tomorrow.

Thanks for posting. Please continue to post these setups as I learn a lot from these. What do you mean "inside" and "inside the margins" here ?

 

Also, the ICUI does not have that great a win ratio so what do you like about it ?

Edited by siddharth310584
NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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I mean that I would be entering inside the 7 day parameters.  I would do this if the chart looks good but there hasn't been much gain yet.

ICUI chart has some indicators I like.  It's not a perfect set up on CML.

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

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I just saw the mention of SEE. Since I have no way of being able to analyze but a limited amount of stocks (etf, commodities too).....I just looked at a daily chart of SEE ( which I would never have had on my radar).......and it looks beautiful. Then, I moved back in time ...(weekly and monthly charts). This indicated to me (for whatever it is worth), that this stock is clearly positioned (in the big picture) to be moving a LOT higher. The only problem,when viewing it from this longer term perspective....is that it could remain in a trading range (with an upward bias), for a longer period of time. But, I brought it down to a 60 and 15 minute chart, and it looks like it is getting closer, in time, to what looks like, an inevitable breakout. But, for the immediate (capital I) moment, it has turned down, on the 5 minute, which could be allowing a great opportunity to enter. Since the long term picture is very good, but the immediate timing is questionable, the next step is how to get into a long delta position, that allows plenty of room to avoid time decay as much as possible, and be positioned for an eventual bull move. I'll examine this further and give you my best estimate for how to best position yourself. Or, I could be completely wrong, and the stock just plummets. But, that is part of directional trading. The rewards are quite amazing though, when you plan it correctly. This is where you can have 30-40% wins, and be extremely profitable over the long run.

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

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SEE only has monthlies.

But, here is an example, off the top of my head, to get long , and not suffer much, if any, time decay , when you are not sure of the timing of the breakout.

The stock is at $44

Buy the Jan $44 calls for $1.90, and sell the Dec $46 calls for .75.

It is fairly liquid, and if you can get this as close to $1.00- $1.10 ...it allows you to be long ATM, and not have to worry too much, about the timing.

This is assuming it will sit for anywhere from 1 week- 5 weeks, before breaking out.

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Also, look at this.  TGT Long Strangle.  I've compared Straddle and Iron Condor but Strangle has best return in back-testing.  The 3 year doesn't look that good -- but things have changed more recently for TGT so I'm discounting that time period.  I think the chart pattern is looking similar to last few patterns pre-earnings.  So a 7 day straddle that will -- or will not -- be profitable in 3-4 days and then i would expect to get out unless price pattern is compelling to stay.  Small position, not betting the farm.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171106045140_NRgH3IcSz9Ecd9cn

Edited by NikTam
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greenspan76 Hero Member

greenspan76

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On 10/25/2017 at 10:31 PM, greenspan76 said:

On the trades I've taken from the blogs and such, by the time I download the trades and sort through them on a spreadsheet to determine if the trade has promise, it takes too much time to only average 2-3% gains, even for short holding periods. Just for the sake of accuracy, my numbers were after trading costs using IB, but I looked a little closer and realized I had duplicated some trades in those numbers (where I made the same trade in my brokerage and IRAs), so it was actually 45 total closed trades and an average holding period of almost 14 days. The only reason I'm still trading them is because a handful of trades skewed both the average gain downward and the average holding period upward, and I'm inclined to believe that more selective trading would produce reasonable results.

Just to follow up a bit on this point about my personal results with CML trades. I'm up to 62 total CML trades so far with an average holding period of 12 days and an average gain of 4.1%.  I realized after looking a little closer that if I removed the post-earnings short put spreads and the iron condors, my results were actually pretty good. For pre-earnings calls, I've made 21 trades with an average holding period of 4 days and an average gain of 5%. For straddles (most pre-earnings, but a few post-earnings), I've made 12 trades with an average holding period of 11 days and an average gain of 16.3%. I'm just going to keep going. Have limited time and don't want to hijack the thread, so I'll just try to post aggregate results after 6 months and maybe after a year of trading them.

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siddharth Hero Member

siddharth

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4 minutes ago, greenspan76 said:

Just to follow up a bit on this point about my personal results with CML trades. I'm up to 62 total CML trades so far with an average holding period of 12 days and an average gain of 4.1%.  I realized after looking a little closer that if I removed the post-earnings short put spreads and the iron condors, my results were actually pretty good. For pre-earnings calls, I've made 21 trades with an average holding period of 4 days and an average gain of 5%. For straddles (most pre-earnings, but a few post-earnings), I've made 12 trades with an average holding period of 11 days and an average gain of 16.3%. I'm just going to keep going. Have limited time and don't want to hijack the thread, so I'll just try to post aggregate results after 6 months and maybe after a year of trading them.

How do you follow the trades from the blog ? Do you change the parameters or just follow them and try to make the trade near eod. How do you determine if theyhave promise ?

greenspan76 Hero Member

greenspan76

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1 minute ago, siddharth310584 said:

How do you follow the trades from the blog ? Do you change the parameters or just follow them and try to make the trade near eod. How do you determine if theyhave promise ?

I made a spreadsheet with every blog trade that has been posted. I just follow the trade and try to enter near eod. I'm sure @NikTam's method of using charts to aid in his entries probably produces better results, but I wanted to see how the trades actually perform vs how they are reported to perform. I first look at the overall numbers, then I download the trade data from the backtest to a spreadsheet and see if the results appear consistent and reasonable or if there are a couple trades heavily skewing results. Then, I look at whether it would have made sense to enter the trade at the point of entry. For example, if one cycle, I was trading a $5 put spread and could only get a $0.25 credit, there's no way I'm entering that trade. Also, I am interested to know whether the stock price has changed significantly during the life of the trade and if the current setup is relatively favorable compared to prior successful setups.

siddharth Hero Member

siddharth

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3 minutes ago, greenspan76 said:

I made a spreadsheet with every blog trade that has been posted. I just follow the trade and try to enter near eod. I'm sure @NikTam's method of using charts to aid in his entries probably produces better results, but I wanted to see how the trades actually perform vs how they are reported to perform. I first look at the overall numbers, then I download the trade data from the backtest to a spreadsheet and see if the results appear consistent and reasonable or if there are a couple trades heavily skewing results. Then, I look at whether it would have made sense to enter the trade at the point of entry. For example, if one cycle, I was trading a $5 put spread and could only get a $0.25 credit, there's no way I'm entering that trade. Also, I am interested to know whether the stock price has changed significantly during the life of the trade and if the current setup is relatively favorable compared to prior successful setups.

How do you determine this “the current setup is relatively favorable compared to prior successful setups.”

 

also, as I understand it, from what you are saying, you do not comparable results to what the back tests imply. 

 

Why hat would you not trade the 25 cents. Is it because the risk reward is too skewed to risk !

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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NTES is gapping up to 296 in pre-market.  I'm holding the vertical call 285/282.50 on this one which means I would be maxed out.  Ready to pull the ripcord at open.

greenspan76 Hero Member

greenspan76

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, siddharth310584 said:

How do you determine this “the current setup is relatively favorable compared to prior successful setups.”

 

also, as I understand it, from what you are saying, you do not comparable results to what the back tests imply. 

 

Why hat would you not trade the 25 cents. Is it because the risk reward is too skewed to risk !

-There's not a one-size fits all answer to this one, so let me give you an example: Let's say the trade is a pre-earnings call and each of the last 8 trades, the IV was between 21 and 26% at the designated entry time, but this time it is at 48%. There may be a good reason for the elevated IV, but now the trade is not similar conditions to the backtested results, so I'll skip it.

-I don't know how comparable the actual results are to the backtested results because the backtested results are based on end of day pricing and prices are going to be different an hour before close or 30 minutes before close, etc.

-I don't like the risk/reward of the $0.25 credit vs $4.75 loss because my max gain is just over 5% and my max loss is 100%. I suppose it is possible that the deltas indicate a greater than 95% chance of success, but I don't believe delta is an accurate measure of the likelihood of something occurring, so I'm not interested in that risk/reward ratio. Again, that was just an example to make a generic point. It is hard to talk specifics because every single trade has a whole lot of individual components to look at. That's why I commented a while back that the time spent on each trade is too much to justify small gains.

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, NikTam said:

@cuegis I like the vertical idea.  And I would look for a break out sooner than later with earnings in view. 

I can't believe how forgetful I can still be, even after all these years.

I put up the Jan 44/Dec 46 diagonal on my quote screen this morning, with a bid at .90 ( the spread closed at $1.15)...and I forgot to check when they have earnings (in 2 days).

I think 2 days is too little time to benefit, maybe not.

Earnings are Nov 8th BO.

I might do a few and get out tomorrow.

Then depending where it is after earnings, I might put something back on again, as it was interesting a bullish/directional trade to begin with.

Edited by cuegis
cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, NikTam said:

@cuegis I like the vertical idea.  And I would look for a break out sooner than later with earnings in view. 

I am also holding MAR, based on the "Discover" article in Trade Machine.

Earnings are tomorrow AC

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, NikTam said:

@cuegis I like the vertical idea.  And I would look for a break out sooner than later with earnings in view. 

I'm also hold K (Kellogg) which I got from a CML scan of "Bear Squeeze". A 100% history of profits. A very short history!

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Out of NTES at 50% gain.  I think I could have waited longer for higher gain but I've been burned too often with this mentality.  So I stick to my plan of profit exits at 40%-50%.

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IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

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2 hours ago, NikTam said:

I've entered 11/17 TDG 280 long call at 8.97.  Also 11/17 SEE 44/46 vertical at .76  Details later.

SEE -  1/17 SEE 44/46 vertical at .72 and 45 CALL for 65. Will see.

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
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5 minutes ago, IgorK said:

SEE -  1/17 SEE 44/46 vertical at .72 and 45 CALL for 65. Will see.

SEE earnings are BO on wednesday. Are you planning to exit before that?

IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, cuegis said:

SEE earnings are BO on wednesday. Are you planning to exit before that?

Yes. At least from call..

@cuegis Actually expiration is on Nov17s. Does it make sense to keep longer if price is not going up?

Edited by IgorK
NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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@cuegis  I am also now looking at K for a bear put debit spread.  The CML back-testing is not compelling except for the 2 year period.  But the chart is compelling to me -- this looks like a very bearish stock right now.  Great risk to reward ratio. 

Post Earnings Put Debit Spread -- buy 55 delta and sell 10 delta.  So 11/17 expiration 57.5/60 strikes.  Close a few days before expiration.

This is mostly charts and indicators, less so the CML Trade Machine.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171106230150_bfSlxI3jTORlQgCU

I have a BTO at .45 but I would pay .55.  So I risk $550 for max gain of $1950.

Edited by NikTam
cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, NikTam said:

@cuegis  I am also now looking at K for a bear put debit spread.  The CML back-testing is not compelling except for the 2 year period.  But the chart is compelling to me -- this looks like a very bearish stock right now.  Great risk to reward ratio. 

Post Earnings Put Debit Spread -- buy 55 delta and sell 10 delta.  So 11/17 expiration 57.5/60 strikes.  Close a few days before expiration.

This is mostly charts and indicators, less so the CML Trade Machine.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171106230150_bfSlxI3jTORlQgCU

I have a BTO at .45 but I would pay .55.  So I risk $550 for max gain of $1950.

I can see how you are getting a bearish reading from the daily chart.

This trade came onto my radar from a scan , under "Pro Scan" , in the category of "Bear Squeeze".

I shouldn't have done anything with this until I had a better understanding of what "they" mean by "squeezes".

But, just based on the daily chart, as far as getting into a "short" position,...I would be a little concerned about the possibility of a potential large "gap" bottom having been just a few days ago, and now we have been sliding back down to fill that gap that was left behind.

I would probably wait, until I see how that "gap" situation plays itself out.

Also, on the weekly chart, an outside key reversal week was completed last week, which also could point to a potential bottom.

But, that's just me.

I think there might be something to this "squeeze" scan worth pursuing.

Edited by cuegis
NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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I think I will look at it again. :-)

 
I have the squeeze indicator on my TOS platform and I don’t see a squeeze going on except on the 15 minute chart.   I would like to see the squeeze on more than one timeframe before giving it much weight.  
And  I Need some details on how CML is using this indicator in their back testing.  Could be a good combination.

 

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, NikTam said:

I think I will look at it again. :-)

 
I have the squeeze indicator on my TOS platform and I don’t see a squeeze going on except on the 15 minute chart.   I would like to see the squeeze on more than one timeframe before giving it much weight.  
And  I Need some details on how CML is using this indicator in their back testing.  Could be a good combination.

 

Yes...that's my issue too. I really don't know how CML handles the whole "squeeze" thing.

There is a wide open field of how one would get o a candidate, especially having viewed several time frames, before placing it on their radar.

But, for the moment, we can use Trade Machine as a way of opening the door to possibilities, and then it is up to us to draw our own conclusions from that shaky knowledge.

clems Advanced Member

clems

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, cuegis said:

Yes...that's my issue too. I really don't know how CML handles the whole "squeeze" thing.

There is a wide open field of how one would get o a candidate, especially having viewed several time frames, before placing it on their radar.

But, for the moment, we can use Trade Machine as a way of opening the door to possibilities, and then it is up to us to draw our own conclusions from that shaky knowledge.

https://tm.cmlviz.com/faq/squeeze_technicals.php in case you hadn't seen it yet...

  • Like 1
cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 hours ago, NikTam said:

Here's a classic Bull Squeeze.  Interrupted by a huge move due to earnings.  I will watch the aftermath for another squeeze -- PCLN has a great track record for the Squeeze.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171107023951_rVelAPbMQspFqCTA

Am I looking at the same thing/ From your link, the results I'm seeing are 5/4 (60% wins), with the average win not that much bigger than the average loss.

The total , combined, profit is 33%.

Do you really think that these numbers stick out compared to the results of so many of the other CML backtests?

If you just do a "scan by strategy", you will wind up with a decent number of results in the 90-100% level.

Or, am I missing something here?

 

I have a feeling that we are not looking at the same thing!

Edited by cuegis
IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted
On 11/1/2017 at 10:49 AM, IgorK said:

Bought earlier NVDA 215 Nov10 call for 6.40. Was 40 delta at this point.  Looks like was a mistake.  Oh well...

Out at 6.50.  Let's see what SEE does. 

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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I'm just out of SEE at a 15% loss - not much time left for it to turn-around. 

 

NVDA is looking good.   @IgorK why did you get out?

Edited by NikTam
NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Posted (edited)

 

1 minute ago, cuegis said:

Well, that is a totally different one than the original one you listed.

Sorry! Not sure how that happen.

Edited by NikTam
cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I'm just out of SEE at a 15% loss - not much time left for it to turn-around. 

 

NVDA is looking good.   @IgorK why did you get out?

Because of such a drastic turnaround, from down, to up on the day, I'm going to give it a few hours before I start getting out.

IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I'm just out of SEE at a 15% loss - not much time left for it to turn-around. 

 

NVDA is looking good.   @IgorK why did you get out?

I have 2 meetings today. And as you said NVDA is a beast.  Plus Intel and AMD joining against NVDA. So not sure what  stock is going to do.

Why you got out of SEE so early? Charts not looking good?

So far it's not looking good.

Edited by IgorK
cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted (edited)

You might want to look at SQM. I didn't get it from CML but, I have been trading it , from the long side, since the summer, and as you can see, it has been a monster.

They are the largest lithium provider in the world (I think). They are in Chile.

Just look at the chart. I think you will see what I mean.

 

As you can see, it has run into resistance. I'm even questioning whether the whole bull move is over.

But, it is a nice "trading" stock (it's options).

Edited by cuegis
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NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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I just don't see any positive momentum with SEE.  The moves usually happen in the morning or the last part of the trading day. I don't want to wait until late in the day.

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@cuegis  Interesting!  I see your point, though -- it's at all time highs and may have run it's course for awhile.  3 day P-E looks interesting.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171107150815_hhCcfX53QgCvNwGE

This example ends in Aug 2017, when the stock was at $44. This dosn't show everything that happened when the thing exploded , in Aug, and basically went into the $60's, without any significant .pullback.

This period reminded me of the value of leverage, because I was either buying calls only...or verticals. And, my average "hold time" for each trade was 1-2 days, or less.

There was a period of time , that lasted nearly 2 months, where you could could get long, on any little pullback (usually, it seemed to happen late in the day), and it would open .80 cents higher, nearly everyday, then spike.

It really showed the huge amount of money one can make, on such a tiny cash outlay, with only a $1-$2 move.

I didn't do anything special,....just followed a strongly trending market, and get out quickly during spikes.

These are THE best trades (when you can find them)

 

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