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CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

NikTam

By NikTam
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zxcv64
zxcv64

Having completed a 100 CML trades, I thought I would summarise my results.    Summary : 100 trades, 66 winners, overall profit of 12.1% PER TRADE.   Here is a detailed breakdown, w

greenspan76
greenspan76

This topic was a little more active a while back and I had intended to give an update on my results at the 1 year mark, but I've been busy with other projects the last few months. My first CML trade w

cuegis
cuegis

Here is an example of how I have used CML as an adjunct to the SO calendar trades, pre earnings. We know that those calendars , on their own, are very good trades, with a great success rate.

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Djtux Hero Member

Djtux

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, IgorK said:

Is anyone still holding W? looks like I missed exit point.

I closed MRVL for 40% today, and still hold W (about -20% for the moment but IV went down).

Will try to close tomorrow as earnings is 02/22 BMO.

  • Thanks 1
krisbee Hero Member

krisbee

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Djtux said:

I closed MRVL for 40% today, and still hold W (about -20% for the moment but IV went down).

Will try to close tomorrow as earnings is 02/22 BMO.

ADSK is like 3% up so far.

Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted
Just now, krisbee said:

ADSK is like 3% up so far.

yeah, fluctuated up to +10% at one point. Hopefully market settles tomorrow and we get a good green day to boost everything.

Djtux Hero Member

Djtux

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Sirion said:

yeah, fluctuated up to +10% at one point. Hopefully market settles tomorrow and we get a good green day to boost everything.

If green day, i make money with those calls.

If red day, maybe the SPX butterfly come back.

Mark100 Jr.Member

Mark100

Posted
Posted

Hi,

I am taking a look at the CML TradeMachine and am wondering if anyone who has been using it for a while has kept a good record of their results. I noticed a few posts regarding this back in November, but not too much since.

Thanks : )

 

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

Just entered W as it appears to be on the right track again.  Delta 40 102 call for 3.70.  This will be an intra-day trade as earnings are BMO tomorrow.  Hoping to get back at least what I lost yesterday.

Edited by NikTam
IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Just entered W as it appears to be on the right track again.  Delta 40 102 call for 3.70.  This will be an intra-day trade as earnings are BMO tomorrow.  Hoping to get back at least what I lost yesterday.

Do you think 4.00 and up are reasonable?

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, IgorK said:

I mean will 102 call go above 4.00 today? I still hold one for 3.90.

I'm thinking it will -- that's why I re-entered.   The back-testing indicates that T-0 is often a good day for this stock.  We will see if that holds true for this cycle.  My indicators are showing strength -- but not overwhelmingly so.  

Edited by NikTam
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siddharth Hero Member

siddharth

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I'm thinking it will -- that's why I re-entered.   The back-testing indicates that T-0 is often a good day for this stock.  We will see if that holds true for this cycle.  My indicators are showing strength -- but not overwhelmingly so.  

Damn. It reversed in a hurry

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
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Posted
3 hours ago, IgorK said:

Yep. Very interesting stock...

I just got out at 3.60 -- so a 3.2% loss.  It should go up now.  You can thank me later.  :-)

  • Haha 1
NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
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Posted
2 hours ago, Djtux said:

IMAX doesn't seem like there is that much volume but i'm testing.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20180215114230_1pXtQmg3O9MzUldl

https://www.volatilityhq.com/backtester/return_matrix/?symbol=IMAX&start_date=2016-02-21&strategy_type=40DCall&submit=Run+backtest

image.png

Screenshot below is a new scanner i'm working (not available for me) to check for the return of some strategies.

image.png

Looks good.  I entered the 50 delta bc there was more volume and open interest.

Funny, I can duplicate your CML results.  I get something vastly different.  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180221195032_5lhAzsB4TtuuSnyA

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
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Posted
Just now, Djtux said:

Seems the different is entry at T-7 calendar or T-6 calendar. Strange, i haven't looked too deeply.

You're right -- that's it.  Forgot I had made that change.  I am looking at T-4 on your chart, which looks good.

cwerner376 Jr.Member

cwerner376

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, NikTam said:

You're right -- that's it.  Forgot I had made that change.  I am looking at T-4 on your chart, which looks good.

I thought we would be at T-5 if we bought today.

Edited by cwerner376
Djtux Hero Member

Djtux

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I just got out at 3.60 -- so a 3.2% loss.  It should go up now.  You can thank me later.  :-)

I exited at 3.60 as well, tried to limit the loss.

  • Upvote 1
Djtux Hero Member

Djtux

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, cwerner376 said:

I thought we would be at T-5 if we bought today.

No it would be T-4 as indicated in the title of the chart because the earning date is 02/27 AMC. You have Feb 22, 23, 26, 27.

Remember that T-0 is the trading session before the actual earning announcement.

cwerner376 Jr.Member

cwerner376

Posted
Posted
Just now, Djtux said:

No it would be T-4 as indicated in the title of the chart because the earning date is 02/27 AMC. You have Feb 22, 23, 26, 27.

Remember that T-0 is the trading session before the actual earning announcement.

Ahh...forgot to count from T-0  Thanks for the correction.

IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, Djtux said:

I exited at 3.60 as well, tried to limit the loss.

Wanted to get 3.70... Ended up with 3.20 And of cause it rallied :( Thanks guys any way... 

I think W today completely followed market...

Edited by IgorK
IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Djtux said:

IMAX doesn't seem like there is that much volume but i'm testing.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20180215114230_1pXtQmg3O9MzUldl

https://www.volatilityhq.com/backtester/return_matrix/?symbol=IMAX&start_date=2016-02-21&strategy_type=40DCall&submit=Run+backtest

image.png

Screenshot below is a new scanner i'm working (not available for me) to check for the return of some strategies.

image.png

Is it IMAX Mar16 24 CALL?

IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Djtux said:

That's what i have and i believe @niktam went with the 23 call.

But right now that call is down for me.

24 around 60 now... is not tomorrow a better entry according to your matrix?

Edited by IgorK
NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
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Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Anyone have intu stil open ? What’s the plan ? It seems to be reversing. 

I closed the Mar 6 165 Call on 2/15 for 72% gain.  I entered on 2/14 and was only in it until next day.  I meant to look at it again for another entry.  You may be looking at a better gain than I got.

 

Whoa.  Today is earnings AMC.  Time to go!

Edited by NikTam
cwerner376 Jr.Member

cwerner376

Posted
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, IgorK said:

So 40 deltas is strangle. Correct?

Yes.  CML trade machine shows a straddle and strangle strategy on the side, but it uses the delta pairs you set up for the backtest.  It doesn't rename it.

Edited by cwerner376
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Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: PANW

7:1 win ratio

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11937&app=news&cml_article_id=20180211_swing-trade-pre-earnings-momentum-in-palo-alto-networks

 

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180211170048_2v08lganyAhjD44g

Eh, high win ratio but low return rate. Pass for me, don't like the risk of a red day killing this trade. It did dip pretty hard today, so maybe favorable due to that but then again.. momentum.

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
  • Author
Posted
Just now, Sirion said:

Today not a bad entry for this one, higher returns overall. Considering it.

Looks like the 60 delta back-tests better with a 5-0 strategy.

greenspan76 Hero Member

greenspan76

Posted
Posted (edited)

I opened PANW yesterday (Mar2 177.5 Call) and it is currently down about 30%, so may get stopped out today if it moves lower. Also opened ALRM this morning Mar16 40 Call for $1.50. Planning to open the DQ ( Call 7DTE 30delta 3/1, SL/LG 40%) (Edit - will look to open DQ tomorrow) and MRVL ( Call 30DTE 40delta 14/1 SL40%) trades later today.

Edited by greenspan76
NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Sirion said:

Eh, high win ratio but low return rate. Pass for me, don't like the risk of a red day killing this trade. It did dip pretty hard today, so maybe favorable due to that but then again.. momentum.

I don't like 3-1 strategies.  The time frame is too short.  If I did enter, I would look for an intraday trade with all TA signals in major bullish attitude.

cwerner376 Jr.Member

cwerner376

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

@NikTam

what do your signals say about intu. I held in too long and now I’m caught between closing at a loss or trying to close on an uptick but not sure if there will be one. 

I think the report earnings AMC today.  

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
  • Author
Posted
1 hour ago, siddharth310584 said:

@NikTam

what do your signals say about intu. I held in too long and now I’m caught between closing at a loss or trying to close on an uptick but not sure if there will be one. 

The 15 and 30 min charts are showing some signs of an uptick.  And the day has been slightly bullish overall.

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)

I opened MRVL PE 14-1 Mar 9 Delta 40 23.5 Call for .77  Half position.  I will add more if it drops today.  Prob a 60 Delta to save on transactions costs.

Edited by NikTam

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