CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

[Djtux]

1 minute ago, NikTam said:

End of Day.

I only have end of day data for the moment.

[Sirion]

Just now, Djtux said:

My chart is still in beta, so please do your own due diligence with the cml backtest. it's good practice to take a look at the tradelog of the cml backtest just to double check.

Haha I understand, all investments are at my own risk

[IgorK]

I am in  W Feb23'18 102 CALL    3.90   
 

[Djtux]

1 minute ago, IgorK said:

I am in  W Feb23'18 102 CALL    3.90   
 

Got the same fill few minutes ago. The only concern i have is that 102 is an all time high for W. Feel a little bit like gambling at this point. I feel dirty.

[IgorK]

1 minute ago, Djtux said:

Got the same fill few minutes ago. The only concern i have is that 102 is an all time high for W. Feel a little bit like gambling at this point. I feel dirty.

I'll take any profit at this point 

Edited February 15, 2018 by IgorK

[akito]

Still seasick from all the volatility over the past couple of weeks, but I think I'm ready to dip my toes back into a few cmlviz long call trades. The W one does look nice. Opened same position as everyone else.

[Sirion]

Just now, Djtux said:

Got the same fill few minutes ago. The only concern i have is that 102 is an all time high for W. Feel a little bit like gambling at this point. I feel dirty.

My first few trades of this type felt like that too. DIRECTIONAL TRADING! Still, I think it's a solid thesis. Just gotta keep position sizing small because you're at the risk of broad market decline (on the plus side, broad market gain is pretty sweet.)

[NikTam]

Well, that's the thing about all time highs -- there's no previous highs to limit it!  (he said hopefully...)

[Djtux]

2 minutes ago, Sirion said:

My first few trades of this type felt like that too. DIRECTIONAL TRADING! Still, I think it's a solid thesis. Just gotta keep position sizing small because you're at the risk of broad market decline (on the plus side, broad market gain is pretty sweet.)

I just do 1 contract per ticker for those. I have enough bullish exposure already.

[apsoccermd]

5 minutes ago, Sirion said:

My first few trades of this type felt like that too. DIRECTIONAL TRADING! Still, I think it's a solid thesis. Just gotta keep position sizing small because you're at the risk of broad market decline (on the plus side, broad market gain is pretty sweet.)

Exactly... i do directional trading sometime.. Keep it small.. and do lots of it.. 

[krisbee]

stock: MRVL (remember last time it gave like 400% ... ) It's back again

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180216021645_rfocpWm0qoSlP31r

[krisbee]

stock: ADSK

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180216031832_ZCuAxwSrudli5vSK

[Djtux]

2 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: MRVL (remember last time it gave like 400% ... ) It's back again

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180216021645_rfocpWm0qoSlP31r

Today is T-13 trading days

[Djtux]

2 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: ADSK

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180216031832_ZCuAxwSrudli5vSK

Today is T-11 trading days

[Djtux]

@krisbee Both MRVL and ADSK looks appealing. Not sure if i want to enter that before the long weekend.

[krisbee]

8 minutes ago, Djtux said:

@krisbee Both MRVL and ADSK looks appealing. Not sure if i want to enter that before the long weekend.

I entered few contracts on both.  

[Djtux]

Just now, krisbee said:

I entered few contracts on both.  

I did as well, but very small position.

[IgorK]

18 minutes ago, krisbee said:

I entered few contracts on both.  

Mar09 23.5?

1 MRVL Mar09'18 23.5 CALL @ 0.57

Edited February 16, 2018 by IgorK

[Djtux]

On 2/15/2018 at 10:04 AM, Djtux said:

@NikTam I entered yesterday ACIA and INTU as well, thanks for the heads up, looking good right now.

Closed ACIA for 40% gain.

[rasar]

1 hour ago, Djtux said:

Today is T-11 trading days

Out of curiosity, isn't the 50 delta call a better selection ? The record is similar to the 40 delta, but returns are higher.

[Djtux]

5 minutes ago, rasar said:

Out of curiosity, isn't the 50 delta call a better selection ? The record is similar to the 40 delta, but returns are higher.

Same return matrix for the ATM calls (there is no stop limit or profit limit). Seems to me better to look at the same type of parameters and not over-optimize.

The 40 delta call is cheaper dollar wise.

[rasar]

Thanks, @Djtux. Dipping my toes in a bit at a time and learning as I go.

[NikTam]

Closed ACIA for 64% gain.

 

I am still long W.  

 

I entered ADSK PE 14-1 Delta 40 Mar 9 117 Call at average price of $3.375.  I entered early (18 days by CML numbering) based what I saw and liked on @Djtux chart with the T-11 entry date, which was today.

 

PE 18-1 http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180216215746_Zy9gjlkplYq6lgnY

 

Edited February 16, 2018 by NikTam

[NikTam]

@Djtux is there a tutorial that goes with the subscription to your RV web service?

[Djtux]

2 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@Djtux is there a tutorial that goes with the subscription to your RV web service?

Hum, this is an area of improvement for sure. If you are talking about the regular RV charts, they are at a high level not much different from Dustin charts with some additions and tweaks based on feedback from members. Those RV charts are close to the strategies being done on SO, so some mentors on this forum are better suited to give specific trading advice than i could. If the question is about the new return matrix, i haven't implemented everything yet.

[krisbee]

stock: DQ

40 delta calls has 7:1 winning

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180219173833_z1AsivkTT0yKYeCw

 

[Djtux]

2 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: DQ

40 delta calls has 7:1 winning

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180219173833_z1AsivkTT0yKYeCw

 

Earning date is unconfirmed for now.

https://www.volatilityhq.com/backtester/return_matrix/?symbol=DQ&start_date=2016-02-20&strategy_type=40DCall&submit=Run+backtest

[Djtux]

MRVL calls are up 40% right now. What's everyone doing ? Close it now or let it run a little bit to see if MRVL test the 24 resistance ?

[IgorK]

On 2/16/2018 at 9:59 AM, IgorK said:

Mar09 23.5?

1 MRVL Mar09'18 23.5 CALL @ 0.57

Just closed @.85.  45.20% gain after comms.  Thanks @krisbee, @NikTam @Djtux and guys

[Sirion]

2 minutes ago, Djtux said:

Earning date is unconfirmed for now.

https://www.volatilityhq.com/backtester/return_matrix/?symbol=DQ&start_date=2016-02-20&strategy_type=40DCall&submit=Run+backtest

This seems to say T-1 (or EOD T-2) may be the best entry for this trade to me. 

I wonder if there's a better average mechanic to use for this type of trade that weights against the extremes, showing more strongly the "normal" trend. Seeing the weird spike on T-8 makes me think there's one or two heavy moves in the past that's overwriting the normal trend.

 

1 minute ago, Djtux said:

MRVL calls are up 40% right now. What's everyone doing ? Close it now or let it run a little bit to see if MRVL test the 24 resistance ?

Thinking about the same thing. It's on quite a tear. I've held for now.

 

[NikTam]

@Djtux  This is what I generated from your service on DQ -- it is different from yours?

[Sirion]

Just now, NikTam said:

@Djtux  This is what I generated from your service on DQ -- it is different from yours?

Main difference looks to be 4 cycles vs 8 cycles - you only looked at last years data?

[NikTam]

@Djtux Ok.  I see that now.  Yes.  I replicated yours with 8 cycles.  Thanks!

 

And by your method, we are at T-10 today, correct?

Edited February 20, 2018 by NikTam

[rasar]

2 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@Djtux Ok.  I see that now.  Yes.  I replicated yours with 8 cycles.  Thanks!

 

And by your method, we are at T-10 today, correct?

T-9 under the assumption that earnings are BMO as per the chart heading.

[NikTam]

Just now, rasar said:

T-9 under the assumption that earnings are BMO as per the chart heading.

Right -- thank you for correction.

[NikTam]

@Djtux this may be obvious, but how do you choose the date of the beginning cycle?  Do you choose the nearest earnings date in that year?  Nearest Friday expiration?

[NikTam]

Looks like W is best held until T-0 -- which would be tomorrow since earnings are BMO on Thursday.

This is NOT what CML back-testing shows, however....Hmm.  Need to look at those results more closely.

 

Edited February 20, 2018 by NikTam

[scubaskeeter]

When I was a commodities broker, we would hedge our soybeans in March and corn in May, it worked pretty well as a seasonal play. But now, not so much since grain is now a Global Market, with increased production other than N. America.

I have a seasonal chart service on Think or Swim that can show tendencies for any stock or commodity at any time of year using historical data for up to 10 years (daily thru monthly). The SO straddle strategy appears to use a timing tendency but of course there is an pending earnings event. But still, can anyone determine if Trade Machine has a seasonal tendency chart for that might be useful to us?

I don't think we should post anything in the forums since I don't want to influence this community of traders, but I am personally interested.

[Djtux]

29 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@Djtux this may be obvious, but how do you choose the date of the beginning cycle?  Do you choose the nearest earnings date in that year?  Nearest Friday expiration?

You mean the start date of the backtesting ? I usually take today's date - 1Y or today's date - 2Y for example. Then check if it comes out with 4 or 8 cycles.

Or you meant something else ?

[NikTam]

35 minutes ago, Djtux said:

You mean the start date of the backtesting ? I usually take today's date - 1Y or today's date - 2Y for example. Then check if it comes out with 4 or 8 cycles.

Or you meant something else ?

Yes.  That’s what I meant.  Thanks. 

[Djtux]

1 hour ago, scubaskeeter said:

When I was a commodities broker, we would hedge our soybeans in March and corn in May, it worked pretty well as a seasonal play. But now, not so much since grain is now a Global Market, with increased production other than N. America.

I have a seasonal chart service on Think or Swim that can show tendencies for any stock or commodity at any time of year using historical data for up to 10 years (daily thru monthly). The SO straddle strategy appears to use a timing tendency but of course there is an pending earnings event. But still, can anyone determine if Trade Machine has a seasonal tendency chart for that might be useful to us?

I don't think we should post anything in the forums since I don't want to influence this community of traders, but I am personally interested.

Why not discuss this on the commodity forum ? https://steadyoptions.com/forums/forum/45-commodities-trading/

There are several of us potentially interested.

[siddharth]

Does w still look appealing. I bought some by mistake and was wondering whether to keep it. 104 calls. 

[NikTam]

13 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Does w still look appealing. I bought some by mistake and was wondering whether to keep it. 104 calls. 

I bought the 102 for 4.00  It has struggled today.  I'm still showing a gain,.but if it hits BE I'm out.  Call me chicken I'm not going to bet on one day (tomorrow).

[Sirion]

10 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I bought the 102 for 4.00  It has struggled today.  I'm still showing a gain,.but if it hits BE I'm out.  Call me chicken I'm not going to bet on one day (tomorrow).

 

25 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Does w still look appealing. I bought some by mistake and was wondering whether to keep it. 104 calls. 

I was looking at closing it earlier, up over 30% because I had to walk away from the computer for a while (closed MRVL earlier btw, up just over 40%), but decided to follow the rules.. ouch

Personally though, I'm holding until tomorrow unless we hit 40% gain or pretty close.

[IgorK]

6 minutes ago, Sirion said:

 

I was looking at closing it earlier, up over 30% because I had to walk away from the computer for a while (closed MRVL earlier btw, up just over 40%), but decided to follow the rules.. ouch

Personally though, I'm holding until tomorrow unless we hit 40% gain or pretty close.

And it's not looking good so far... It's almost at the open price...

Edited February 20, 2018 by IgorK

[krisbee]

On 2/16/2018 at 9:56 AM, krisbee said:

I entered few contracts on both.  

closed MRVL for 32% (delta 50 calls)

close W for 8% (delta 40 call)

 

[NikTam]

I missed the exit on W so will hang on a bit.  I see that XLY consumer discretionary is also flat lining today so it appears to be a reflection of its  broader sector.

 

If it goes below 97.10  -- the 34 Low EMA on 30 min chart -- I'm out.  It has bounced off that support level for past several days.

 

Looks like a reversal happening now.  For both W and XLY....

 

No reversal.  I exited as per above - it did not hold at that support.  Will see how it does at close and then maybe get back in tomorrow AM if strong indicators prevail.  

 

ADSK still doing well. 

Edited February 20, 2018 by NikTam

[scubaskeeter]

3 hours ago, Djtux said:

Why not discuss this on the commodity forum ? https://steadyoptions.com/forums/forum/45-commodities-trading/

There are several of us potentially interested.

In a round about way I was asking members who have CML Trade Machine if it has a straight seasonal chart that one could apply to TLT for instance. I know bonds and tech stocks have pretty strong seasonals.  Djtux, I like the way you think, but I have my hands full of stock trades so I dare not take on more. 

[Djtux]

2 minutes ago, scubaskeeter said:

In a round about way I was asking members who have CML Trade Machine if it has a straight seasonal chart that one could apply to TLT for instance. I know bonds and tech stocks have pretty strong seasonals.  Djtux, I like the way you think, but I have my hands full of stock trades so I dare not take on more. 

Sorry i misunderstood your question. I'm not sure there is a way to do what you have in mind with CML. I've personally never used the seasonality chart on TOS. Again sorry.

[IgorK]

2 hours ago, IgorK said:

And it's not looking good so far... It's almost at the open price...

Is anyone still holding W? looks like I missed exit point.

Edited February 20, 2018 by IgorK