CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

Antoxa · January 17, 2018

4 minutes ago, NikTam said:

So the SBUX would be this: http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180117211359_XT35bvU4SRBY9aXJ

Looks good to me.

It says Long Straddle, but it is a Strangle they test:

greenspan76 · January 17, 2018

2 minutes ago, NikTam said:

So the SBUX would be this: http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180117211359_XT35bvU4SRBY9aXJ

Looks good to me.

Yep. Not a high-flyer, but solid results. On reflection, I'm not sure about the INTC straddle - my old backtest link (last trade shows Feb 2017) is showing virtually breakeven.

NikTam · January 17, 2018

3 minutes ago, Antoxa said:

It says Long Straddle, but it is a Strangle they test:

That's very interesting....

Here's the link. http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180117212243_LBxJRBh6rkQmz05v

Edited January 17, 2018 by NikTam

mustafaoe · January 17, 2018

6 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I'm not feeling it for these tickers. Not compelling back test results. And wide spreads and low volume.

OSK:

3 years test yields 83% win rate: https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20180115103731_8c5bOf21sHvQ37c0

TSS: 3 years backtest 67% win rate: https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php

I prefer those stocks that did not participated so much in today's and last couple of days rally.

krisbee · January 17, 2018

3 minutes ago, Antoxa said:

It says Long Straddle, but it is a Strangle they test:

if u choose anything other than 50 delta call and 50 delta put, it'll be like this.

NikTam · January 17, 2018

1 minute ago, krisbee said:

if u choose anything other than 50 delta call and 50 delta put, it'll be like this.

Right! So here's the 50/50 call/put Definitely a Straddle. Learned something!

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180117212243_LBxJRBh6rkQmz05v

NikTam · January 17, 2018

6 minutes ago, mustafaoe said:

OSK:

3 years test yields 83% win rate: https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20180115103731_8c5bOf21sHvQ37c0

TSS: 3 years backtest 67% win rate: https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php

I prefer those stocks that did not participated so much in today's and last couple of days rally.

Hmm. I can't get that result. This is what I get - what am I missing?

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180117212925_QZGwXuljGcN2eY0i

IgorK · January 17, 2018

16 minutes ago, NikTam said:

So the SBUX would be this: http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180117211359_XT35bvU4SRBY9aXJ

Looks good to me.

Don't we want to enter this tomorrow? 19-20-21-22-23-24-25 7 days. Close on the 25th. So 0 days before earnings.

I only see 60 and 62.5 straddles for Feb16.

IgorK · January 17, 2018

2 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Hmm. I can't get that result. This is what I get - what am I missing?

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180117212925_QZGwXuljGcN2eY0i

His enter 3 day before earnings and exit 1 day before. 40 delta call.

NikTam · January 17, 2018

1 minute ago, IgorK said:

I only see 60 and 62.5 straddles for Feb16.

I will go with the Feb 16 60 call. It's showing as a Delta 58 but it is ATM since stock is at 60.66 -- that's a 50 delta in my book. right?

IgorK · January 17, 2018

Just now, NikTam said:

I will go with the Feb 16 60 call. It's showing as a Delta 58 but it is ATM since stock is at 60.66 -- that's a 50 delta in my book. right?

Depends how it opens I think... is entry tomorrow? I am busy in the morning... Hm...

NikTam · January 17, 2018

1 minute ago, IgorK said:

His enter 3 day before earnings and exit 1 day before. 40 delta call.

Ah yes! That does make a difference. Maybe look at this one more closely. So enter on Monday. But I'm still leery of the low volume.

IgorK · January 17, 2018

3 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Ah yes! That does make a difference. Maybe look at this one more closely. So enter on Monday. But I'm still leery of the low volume.

If it's Monday, what would be 7 days expiration in this case? Jan26 or Feb02? Maybe better to enter Friday..

Edited January 17, 2018 by IgorK

NikTam · January 18, 2018

BA: BOT Feb 2 350 call @ 10.65 (50 delta) BOT Feb 2 357.5 @ 7.35. (40 delta) This is second round for me on this PE momentum trade.

BA dropped like a rock. Much better entries now.

Edited January 18, 2018 by NikTam

NikTam · January 18, 2018

SHW:

17 hours ago, NikTam said:

So the SBUX would be this: http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180117211359_XT35bvU4SRBY9aXJ

Looks good to me.

Don't we want to enter this tomorrow? 19-20-21-22-23-24-25 7 days. Close on the 25th. So 0 days before earnings.

17 hours ago, NikTam said:

Thanks for sharing. I do like SHW http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180117210250_YnNvbIUrgcHoGWnc

BOT STT @1.00 Feb 18 110 call

BOT SHW @6.35 Feb 18 440 call

Edited January 18, 2018 by NikTam

siddharth · January 18, 2018

What strikes and expiration’s ?

Stanislav · January 18, 2018

7 minutes ago, NikTam said:

BA: BOT Feb 2 350 call @ 10.65 (50 delta) BOT Feb 2 357.5 @ 7.35. (40 delta) This is second round for me on this PE momentum trade.

Thanks for clarifying what exactly you bought. For me this thread is not quite easy to follow as members rarely provide full details on the trades made.

NikTam · January 18, 2018

17 hours ago, krisbee said:

if u choose anything other than 50 delta call and 50 delta put, it'll be like this.

@krisbee So what are you thoughts on the SBUX straddle as far as pricing? Is there an RV protocol for this?

Edited January 18, 2018 by NikTam

Stanislav · January 18, 2018

In BA Feb'02 345 CALL for 10.50.

krisbee · January 18, 2018

32 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@krisbee So what are you thoughts on the SBUX straddle as far as pricing? Is there an RV protocol for this?

61 straddle is around 2.50 now. SBUX moves + or - $1 from today, in that case 10-15cents straddle moves up. 2 cycles out of 8 moved nearly 2-2.5$

personally, I'm holding my 3rd iteration of hedged straddle for SBUX. possibly i'll close it tomorrow or today if i can get around 7-8%.

akito · January 18, 2018

Bought a single SHW feb16, 450 call for 4.80 debit. Wanted to go with a higher delta call (ideally, ATM) as the backtest shows those seem to perform better, but those are expensive and more than I want to put down for a single long call position.

Edited January 18, 2018 by akito
mixed up my deltas

IgorK · January 18, 2018

1 hour ago, NikTam said:

SHW:

BOT STT @1.00 Feb 18 110 call

@NikTam I am @1.00 for Feb16. There is no Feb18. Typo?

NikTam · January 18, 2018

1 minute ago, IgorK said:

@NikTam I am @1.00 for Feb16. There is no Feb18. Typo?

Correct! -- Feb 16

Stanislav · January 18, 2018

27 minutes ago, akito said:

Bought a single SHW feb16, 450 call for 4.80 debit. Wanted to go with a lower delta call as the backtest shows those seem to perform better, but those are expensive and more than I want to put down for a single long call position.

I'm in SHW Feb'16 450 call for 4.80 debit as well. Wanted to be in this trade as SHW is heading upwards unlike BA which is falling today.

siddharth · January 18, 2018

BA is a longer term trade 14 days so may not be bad to buy a bit when it is down.

Stanislav · January 18, 2018

6 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

BA is a longer term trade 14 days so may not be bad to buy a bit when it is down.

Yeah. That's what I did.

By the way, @NikTam, do I understand correctly, is it two long calls on BA, not a bull call spread?

1 hour ago, NikTam said:

BA: BOT Feb 2 350 call @ 10.65 (50 delta) BOT Feb 2 357.5 @ 7.35. (40 delta) This is second round for me on this PE momentum trade.

BA dropped like a rock. Much better entries now.

NikTam · January 18, 2018

5 minutes ago, Stanislav said:

Yeah. That's what I did.

By the way, @NikTam, do I understand correctly, is it two long calls on BA, not a bull call spread?

Only if I sell the higher strike price to offset the cost of the long call. I went long with two positions at different deltas.

A bull call spread is an options strategy that involves purchasing call options at a specific strike price while also selling the same number of calls of the same asset and expiration date but at a higher strike. A bull call spread is used when a moderate rise in the price of the underlying asset is expected. __ Investipedia

Edited January 18, 2018 by NikTam

Stanislav · January 18, 2018

@NikTam, thanks, I know what bull call spread is. I just wanted to make sure it is not a typo in your post, and you do really have two long calls with different delta's. This trade is a longer term one, as indicated in the posts above, sometimes it makes sense to use call spread to compensate for time decay for trades which last more than a few days.

Edited January 18, 2018 by Stanislav

NikTam · January 18, 2018

Just now, Stanislav said:

@NikTam, thanks, I know what bull call spread is. I just wanted to make sure it is not a typo in your post, and you do really have two long calls with different delta's. I this trade is a longer term one, as indicated in the posts above, sometimes it makes sense to use call spread to compensate for time decay.

Thought you did! I'm thinking of selling some calls to do just that and offset some of my losses today. Of course that puts limit on gains. What do you think of that?

greenspan76 · January 18, 2018

I was originally planning to open a PE 7-1 call on BA, but for exactly the reason that @Stanislav mentioned, I choose to open today using a call spread. I opened the Feb2 345/365 call spread for $6.94 - this was earlier this morning before BA dropped further.

Stanislav · January 18, 2018

@NikTam, I personally think it is too late to sell calls right now. Would be better to do it at the entry time.

Better to stick with the original plan. Or liquidate trade if stop loss is met. Selling calls now may do more harm rather then help.

IgorK · January 18, 2018

1 hour ago, NikTam said:

Correct! -- Feb 16

For this one we should exit Monday max. Correct?

IgorK · January 19, 2018

22 hours ago, IgorK said:

@NikTam I am @1.00 for Feb16. There is no Feb18. Typo?

Out @ 1.40 for 40%. Thanks guys.

siddharth · January 19, 2018

Anyone looking to enter today given the uncertainty with the government shutdown ?

greenspan76 · January 19, 2018

@NikTam Did you ever hear back from CML about the PE 3-1 trades? I noticed in the BA 3-1 trade they posted on Jan 17th blog post (http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11902&app=news&cml_article_id=20180117_the-one-day-pre-earnings-momentum-trade-with-options-in-boeing-co-nyse-ba) that they specifically said it was opened at the end of the day Monday, 2 days before earnings, instead of Friday. Every single trade in the backtest is a 2-1 trade, so I'm not really clear why they even bother calling it a 3-1 trade. Maybe more importantly for a subscriber, I don't understand how the software is calculating the 3 days pre-earnings since some 3-1 trades are actually opened 3 days before earnings and others are opened 2 days before earnings.

krissi · January 19, 2018

On 1/17/2018 at 2:08 PM, lluisitu said:

These are on my list to check for coming days.

Need to check charts and confirm earnings dates though..

Earnings Date Trade Date Month Wk Stock Strategy Days Before / After Trade Exp. Days Win Loss

1/22/18 1/19/18 1 3 NFLX 3 Days Pre, Long Call -3 NFLX: Buy 40 Delta Call 7 8 0

1/17/18 1/19/18 1 3 SCHW 1 Month Post, Short Put Spread 2 SCHW: Sell 30 Delta, Buy 10 Delta Puts 40 11 1

1/30/18 1/27/18 1 4 GLW 3 Days Pre, Long Call -3 GLW: Buy 40 Delta Call 7 7 1

1/23/18 1/20/18 1 3 STT 3 Days Pre, Long Call -3 STT: Buy 40 Delta Call 7 7 1

1/30/18 1/20/18 1 3 EA 14 Days Pre, Long Call -10 EA: Buy 40 Delta Call 30 4 0

1/24/18 1/21/18 1 4 TEL 3 Days Pre, Long Call -3 TEL: Buy 40 Delta Call 7 5 0

1/31/18 1/21/18 1 4 MSFT 14 Days Pre, Long Call -10 MSFT: Buy 40 Delta Call 30 7 1

1/31/18 1/21/18 1 4 FB 14 Days Pre, Long Call -10 FB: Buy 40 Delta Call 30 6 2

1/29/18 1/22/18 1 4 GGP 7 Days Pre, Long Straddle -7 GGP: Buy 50 Delta Calls, Buy 50 Delta Puts 7 4 0

1/25/18 1/22/18 1 4 POT 3 Days Pre, Long Call -3 POT: Buy 40 Delta Call 7 7 1

1/25/18 1/22/18 1 4 WYNN 3 Days Pre, Long Call -3 WYNN: Buy 40 Delta Call 7 5 0

1/18/18 1/22/18 1 4 BK 1 Month Post, Short Put Spread 4 BK: Sell 30 Delta, Buy 10 Delta Puts 40 11 1

I watched the CMLviz webinar and it looks like a good tool. However, it looks like most SO members are using it for pre-earnings trades, and many of the setups are long calls. I'm more of a non-directional trader. Is anyone using this tool to find non-earnings, non-directional trades like calendars or butterflies on the indexes? Thanks.

cuegis · January 20, 2018

17 hours ago, krissi said:

I watched the CMLviz webinar and it looks like a good tool. However, it looks like most SO members are using it for pre-earnings trades, and many of the setups are long calls. I'm more of a non-directional trader. Is anyone using this tool to find non-earnings, non-directional trades like calendars or butterflies on the indexes? Thanks.

I was thinking the same thing, and would also like to hear the same responses.

cuegis · January 20, 2018

17 hours ago, krissi said:

I watched the CMLviz webinar and it looks like a good tool. However, it looks like most SO members are using it for pre-earnings trades, and many of the setups are long calls. I'm more of a non-directional trader. Is anyone using this tool to find non-earnings, non-directional trades like calendars or butterflies on the indexes? Thanks.

I missed the webinar from a few nights ago.

I wrote them and they said it would immediately be posted for subscribers to watch, but , I can't locate it.

Do you know where it is?

krissi · January 20, 2018

1 minute ago, cuegis said:

I missed the webinar from a few nights ago.

I wrote them and they said it would immediately be posted for subscribers to watch, but , I can't locate it.

Do you know where it is?

Kim posted a link to the webinar here:

cuegis · January 20, 2018

1 hour ago, krissi said:

Kim posted a link to the webinar here:

Than you!

IgorK · January 20, 2018

19 hours ago, krissi said:

I watched the CMLviz webinar and it looks like a good tool. However, it looks like most SO members are using it for pre-earnings trades, and many of the setups are long calls. I'm more of a non-directional trader. Is anyone using this tool to find non-earnings, non-directional trades like calendars or butterflies on the indexes? Thanks.

@krissi What indexes you are interested in? You can put these in the scanner and see what works. You can also create you custom strategy and test against index.

krissi · January 20, 2018

2 hours ago, IgorK said:

@krissi What indexes you are interested in? You can put these in the scanner and see what works. You can also create you custom strategy and test against index.

SPX, RUT, maybe some ETFs like SPY, IWM. I want to backtest calendars, diagonals and butterflies. Sounds like CMLviz does this? Thanks!

IgorK · January 20, 2018

10 minutes ago, krissi said:

SPX, RUT, maybe some ETFs like SPY, IWM. I want to backtest calendars, diagonals and butterflies. Sounds like CMLviz does this? Thanks!

Not sure if these actually work...

probablyist · January 20, 2018

5 hours ago, cuegis said:

I missed the webinar from a few nights ago.

I wrote them and they said it would immediately be posted for subscribers to watch, but , I can't locate it.

Do you know where it is?

You should be able to access the webinar recording through this link: https://cmlviz.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=8740b0e4e1d86119b842cbdf2&id=5f63fe5eaf&e=7db5d63ccb

cuegis · January 20, 2018

1 hour ago, paulp said:

You should be able to access the webinar recording through this link: https://cmlviz.us12.list-manage.com/track/click?u=8740b0e4e1d86119b842cbdf2&id=5f63fe5eaf&e=7db5d63ccb

Thank You !

Stanislav · January 22, 2018

On 1/18/2018 at 6:00 PM, Stanislav said:

In BA Feb'02 345 CALL for 10.50.

Exited BA - stop loss.

akito · January 22, 2018

Just a heads up, anyone who opened a STT call on the pullback on Friday needs to close today as ER is tomorrow before open. I had opened a position and was planning on closing a tiny portion this morning (leaving the rest to GTC orders at profit targets), but accidentally closed my entire position... Only managed 9% gain when I could have easily gotten 30+%... So disappointing.

On 1/18/2018 at 10:58 AM, akito said:

Bought a single SHW feb16, 450 call for 4.80 debit. Wanted to go with a higher delta call (ideally, ATM) as the backtest shows those seem to perform better, but those are expensive and more than I want to put down for a single long call position.

Also closed my SHW call for -35% loss.

Edited January 22, 2018 by akito

siddharth · January 22, 2018

Thinking of entering this today: (LRCX PE 2-1)

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180122173005_fbv0PoZNhLaD5ndj

Holing onto BA and SHW a bit longer to see how it trends after this vote. May not be smart but taking a risk here. Do no t have that large a position

IgorK · January 22, 2018

Did anyone enter CAT today? looks like I missed the boat...

siddharth · January 22, 2018

1 minute ago, IgorK said:

Did anyone enter CAT today? looks like I missed the boat...

What was the cat trade ?

Earnings Date	Trade Date	Month	Wk	Stock	Strategy	Days Before / After	Trade	Exp. Days	Win	Loss
1/22/18	1/19/18	1	3	NFLX	3 Days Pre, Long Call	-3	NFLX: Buy 40 Delta Call	7	8	0
1/17/18	1/19/18	1	3	SCHW	1 Month Post, Short Put Spread	2	SCHW: Sell 30 Delta, Buy 10 Delta Puts	40	11	1
1/30/18	1/27/18	1	4	GLW	3 Days Pre, Long Call	-3	GLW: Buy 40 Delta Call	7	7	1
1/23/18	1/20/18	1	3	STT	3 Days Pre, Long Call	-3	STT: Buy 40 Delta Call	7	7	1
1/30/18	1/20/18	1	3	EA	14 Days Pre, Long Call	-10	EA: Buy 40 Delta Call	30	4	0
1/24/18	1/21/18	1	4	TEL	3 Days Pre, Long Call	-3	TEL: Buy 40 Delta Call	7	5	0
1/31/18	1/21/18	1	4	MSFT	14 Days Pre, Long Call	-10	MSFT: Buy 40 Delta Call	30	7	1
1/31/18	1/21/18	1	4	FB	14 Days Pre, Long Call	-10	FB: Buy 40 Delta Call	30	6	2
1/29/18	1/22/18	1	4	GGP	7 Days Pre, Long Straddle	-7	GGP: Buy 50 Delta Calls, Buy 50 Delta Puts	7	4	0
1/25/18	1/22/18	1	4	POT	3 Days Pre, Long Call	-3	POT: Buy 40 Delta Call	7	7	1
1/25/18	1/22/18	1	4	WYNN	3 Days Pre, Long Call	-3	WYNN: Buy 40 Delta Call	7	5	0
1/18/18	1/22/18	1	4	BK	1 Month Post, Short Put Spread	4	BK: Sell 30 Delta, Buy 10 Delta Puts	40	11	1

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