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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, greenspan76 said:

Yes. Planning to open near end of day - will use Jan26 40 delta call

@IgorK Thanks for heads up on this one.  The 6 month and 1 year results not as compelling as the 2 year but I like the chart.  I have under-bids for both the 113 and 114 strikes but will do what is necessary to get in by EOD.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180116184629_TZmLOsJqzFvs9end

 

BA and MSFT are tee'd up for tomorrow.

 

TXN:  Just filled half position on the (Delta 44) 114 Jan 26 calls for 1.80.  I will see if I can get some 113's on the cheap.

 

 Just filled other half position with 113's at 2.20.

Edited by NikTam
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Sirion said:

I see 1.40 as the last. Nice fill :P

Thanks fr heads up.  When it went through I through I made a mistake.  Usually orders go that fast when I make mistakes :)

Edited by IgorK
Posted
4 minutes ago, IgorK said:

Thanks fr heads up.  When it went through I through I made a mistake.  Usually orders go that fast when I make mistakes :)

This is exactly my thought. Filled 1.40 instantly with a mid on 1.46. Scary ;)

Posted
21 minutes ago, Antoxa said:

This is exactly my thought. Filled 1.40 instantly with a mid on 1.46. Scary ;)

Were you filled on your entire order?

Usually , when those unusually good fills, that are outside the market, take place, it is just a fluke, and only a few get filled.

At least that has been my experience.

Posted
5 minutes ago, cuegis said:

Were you filled on your entire order?

Usually , when those unusually good fills, that are outside the market, take place, it is just a fluke, and only a few get filled.

At least that has been my experience.

I find this also happens when a few SO people are hunting for a fill :P Someone is patient, for instance, and is waiting for a good fill at 1.38, 1.39. So the mid is showing 1.46. Without the other SO person, mid would be ~1.40 (with market maker bid and ask).

New person comes in, adds a penny, and BOOM insta-fill. 

This is why I never start at the mid.. just in case.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Sirion said:

I find this also happens when a few SO people are hunting for a fill :P Someone is patient, for instance, and is waiting for a good fill at 1.38, 1.39. So the mid is showing 1.46. Without the other SO person, mid would be ~1.40 (with market maker bid and ask).

New person comes in, adds a penny, and BOOM insta-fill. 

This is why I never start at the mid.. just in case.

Yes. You are absolutely right about that.

Many times there are temporary factors, that pop up, and it prevents you from being able to see where the "real" market is at that moment.

If the stock is not moving around that much, it's a good idea to watch it for a few minutes to see if there are any noticeable changes.

For example, the stock dosn't move at all, and the bid/ask/mid changes noticeably.

Posted
18 minutes ago, cuegis said:

Were you filled on your entire order?

Usually , when those unusually good fills, that are outside the market, take place, it is just a fluke, and only a few get filled.

At least that has been my experience.

Yes, I agree, but in my case the entire order has been filled instantly. But I had just 10 contracts on order.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, NikTam said:

These are for tomorrow.  They both look really good.

BA PE 7-1 http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180116223928_k4GMu5GReAO4xcNJ

MSFT PE 14-1 http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180116224213_OFWM7MuYILEn6FDP

They both got pummeled today.  I may do a morning entry if a reversal looks imminent.  BA was already turning around by end of today.

Sorry for being that guy, but what do you mean by msft pe 14-1? Looking over it, I think you mean enter 14 days prior to earnings and exit 1 day before earnings - is that correct?

 

Also, I clicked on the link (not a cmlviz subscriber yet) and it gave me a host of long calls (with 25 delta seeming to be the best). Which delta would you think is optimal? 

Edited by KingKaiser
Solved pe issue!
Posted
4 minutes ago, KingKaiser said:

Sorry for being that guy, but what do you mean by msft pe 14-1? (I assume not price earnings)

I clicked on the link (not a cmlviz subscriber yet) and it gave me a host of long calls (with 25 delta seeming to be the best). Which one were you referring to? 

To enter posistion 14 days before earnings. To exit maximum 1 day before earnings.

Posted
1 minute ago, IgorK said:

To enter posistion 14 days before earnings. To exit maximum 1 day before earnings.

Thanks - I had just edited when you posted (was playing around)! 

 

Would you agree that 25 delta seems to be the best pick? 

Posted
1 minute ago, KingKaiser said:

Thanks - I had just edited when you posted (was playing around)! 

 

Would you agree that 25 delta seems to be the best pick? 

Acooeding to TM yes :) How it is in reality I don’t know.

Posted
1 hour ago, KingKaiser said:

Thanks - I had just edited when you posted (was playing around)! 

 

Would you agree that 25 delta seems to be the best pick? 

The higher percentage win vs loss are the Delta 50 and 60.  I go with that over the higher profitability of the lower delta's.  Often the delta 40 is a good compromise.

Posted
8 hours ago, NikTam said:

These are for tomorrow.  They both look really good.

BA PE 7-1 http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180116223928_k4GMu5GReAO4xcNJ

MSFT PE 14-1 http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180116224213_OFWM7MuYILEn6FDP

They both got pummeled today.  I may do a morning entry if a reversal looks imminent.  BA was already turning around by end of today.

I was planning to do a MSFT PE 7-1 (made this trade last cycle with 40%+ gains). BA is showing earnings on 1/31 BO (http://investors.boeing.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx) - are you just planning to enter this one earlier than the backtest because of yesterday's pullback?

Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, greenspan76 said:

I was planning to do a MSFT PE 7-1 (made this trade last cycle with 40%+ gains). BA is showing earnings on 1/31 BO (http://investors.boeing.com/investors/events-and-presentations/default.aspx) - are you just planning to enter this one earlier than the backtest because of yesterday's pullback?

No.  I thought earnings was on the 24rth.  I usually double-check before entering a trade but might have missed this - so thanks for the correction!

 

The BA PE 14-1 looks very good also -- and that means entering today.

Edited by NikTam
Posted
18 hours ago, IgorK said:

Entered the same one for 1.40. Hope it's the same one :)

My 1.82 order got filled. 30% gain. Looks like set too low. Good luck guys.

Posted
18 hours ago, Antoxa said:

This is exactly my thought. Filled 1.40 instantly with a mid on 1.46. Scary ;)

Closed for 1.80 by GTC order this morning. 27% gain after commissions. Not bad, but could be better (mid is 1.98 already). :)

Posted (edited)

TXN hit my 40% gain target in first 15 minutes so I was taken out.  Will watch for a dip to get back in.

MSFT -- I was filled on the 90.5 call at 1.50 - half position.

BA -- Is running away from my bid of 8.50.  I think a lot of traders like this earnings play.

Just filled on BA.

Edited by NikTam
Posted
Just now, NikTam said:

TXN hit my 40% gain target in first 15 minutes so I was taken out.  Will watch for a dip to get back in.

MSFT -- I was filled on the 90.5 call at 1.50 - half position.

BA -- Is running away from my bid of 8.50.  I think a lot of traders like this earnings play.

How do you decide what is a good price for these positions?

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, NikTam said:

TXN hit my 40% gain target in first 15 minutes so I was taken out.  Will watch for a dip to get back in.

MSFT -- I was filled on the 90.5 call at 1.50 - half position.

BA -- Is running away from my bid of 8.50.  I think a lot of traders like this earnings play.

What experation for MSFT?

Edited by IgorK
Posted
5 minutes ago, Antoxa said:

How do you decide what is a good price for these positions?

That is a judgement call based on the chart and the indicators I like.  CML back testing is based on trades that are EOD.  So I'm not following that protocol.

Posted
18 hours ago, Sirion said:

In TXN Jan 26 $115 calls for 1.45

Out for 2.19, just over 50%. Didn't see it continuing the mad dash, decided to take profit.

I'm in the official MSFT straddle, so I plan on waiting for a pullback to enter MSFT long call. I'm very delta positive right now on MSFT.

BA has moved up strongly today already, so I'll either enter EOD, on a pullback, or wait for a shorter play.

  • Like 1
Posted
7 minutes ago, Sirion said:

Out for 2.19, just over 50%. Didn't see it continuing the mad dash, decided to take profit.

I'm in the official MSFT straddle, so I plan on waiting for a pullback to enter MSFT long call. I'm very delta positive right now on MSFT.

BA has moved up strongly today already, so I'll either enter EOD, on a pullback, or wait for a shorter play.

I just exited BA for a 25% gain.  Hard to beat that for 30 minutes in a trade.  I will try for a second bite this afternoon.  Or tomorrow.  It's a 14 day trade.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sirion said:

Out for 2.19, just over 50%. Didn't see it continuing the mad dash, decided to take profit.

 

Same can be sold for ~3 now. :|

May adapt my strategy a bit to scale out of these trades when they hit early in the day. Not sure. It's a weird situation where you're trying to not be upset about a 50% gain overnight.

 

Edit: Also, I'm not really sure where to place this since it's cross-functional, but in addition to wanting to have cut my short call ratio on MSFT from 1:2 to 1:3 last friday and forgetting, I should have taken the bull sign entry today as an opportunity to close some of those short calls (as opposed to entering new long calls). This would make tracking.. basically impossible, but still. Also, hindsight is 20/20, I guess.

Edited by Sirion
Posted
8 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Is it normal to feel bad after a 50% gain or is there something wrong with me :) 

Imagine how I feel about completely missing this altogether yesterday. :Content:

Posted
22 hours ago, greenspan76 said:

Went ahead and entered the TXN Jan 26 $114 calls for $1.75 a few minutes ago

 

1 hour ago, greenspan76 said:

Closed 1/2 at 3.55. Will close the other half later today

And another 1/4 at 4.25. Will close remaining 1/4 in the last hour

Posted
1 hour ago, siddharth310584 said:

Is it normal to feel bad after a 50% gain or is there something wrong with me :) 

We should always have such troubles!  :D

Posted (edited)
23 hours ago, greenspan76 said:

Went ahead and entered the TXN Jan 26 $114 calls for $1.75 a few minutes ago

 

3 hours ago, greenspan76 said:

Closed 1/2 at 3.55. Will close the other half later today

 

1 hour ago, greenspan76 said:

 

And another 1/4 at 4.25. Will close remaining 1/4 in the last hour

Closed remainder for 5.20. Altogether, in for $1.75, Out for avg $4.138. After commissions, a gain of 134.8%. And even I feel bad for closing parts of my trade too early...

Edited by greenspan76
  • Upvote 1
Posted
8 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I see CAT and UTX for next Monday.  Anyone finding anything else for a PE play?  This crazy bull market is the perfect environment.

These are on my list to check for coming days.

Need to check charts and confirm earnings dates though..

 

 

Earnings Date Trade Date Month Wk Stock Strategy Days Before / After Trade Exp. Days Win Loss
1/22/18 1/19/18 1 3 NFLX 3 Days Pre, Long Call -3 NFLX: Buy 40 Delta Call 7 8 0
1/17/18 1/19/18 1 3 SCHW 1 Month Post, Short Put Spread 2 SCHW: Sell 30 Delta, Buy 10 Delta Puts 40 11 1
1/30/18 1/27/18 1 4 GLW 3 Days Pre, Long Call -3 GLW: Buy 40 Delta Call 7 7 1
1/23/18 1/20/18 1 3 STT 3 Days Pre, Long Call -3 STT: Buy 40 Delta Call 7 7 1
1/30/18 1/20/18 1 3 EA 14 Days Pre, Long Call -10 EA: Buy 40 Delta Call 30 4 0
1/24/18 1/21/18 1 4 TEL 3 Days Pre, Long Call -3 TEL: Buy 40 Delta Call 7 5 0
1/31/18 1/21/18 1 4 MSFT 14 Days Pre, Long Call -10 MSFT: Buy 40 Delta Call 30 7 1
1/31/18 1/21/18 1 4 FB 14 Days Pre, Long Call -10 FB: Buy 40 Delta Call 30 6 2
1/29/18 1/22/18 1 4 GGP 7 Days Pre, Long Straddle -7 GGP: Buy 50 Delta Calls, Buy 50 Delta Puts 7 4 0
1/25/18 1/22/18 1 4 POT 3 Days Pre, Long Call -3 POT: Buy 40 Delta Call 7 7 1
1/25/18 1/22/18 1 4 WYNN 3 Days Pre, Long Call -3 WYNN: Buy 40 Delta Call 7 5 0
1/18/18 1/22/18 1 4 BK 1 Month Post, Short Put Spread 4 BK: Sell 30 Delta, Buy 10 Delta Puts 40 11 1

 

  • Upvote 1
Posted
16 minutes ago, greenspan76 said:

 

 

Closed remainder for 5.20. Altogether, in for $1.75, Out for avg $4.138. After commissions, a gain of 134.8%. And even I feel bad for closing parts of my trade too early...

Please! No complaints from you I hope! lol 

Posted

@NikTam Nope. Very happy, but I had to delete it from my watchlist after closing it - too easy to look back and regret things and make a dumb decision the next time.

I opened a few trades this morning. I thought today was Jan 18th and they were supposed to be opened at the end of the day today, but no - I was a day early. Also opened one that I thought was a day early, but was 2 days early.

 

SEIC Feb16 75 Call for $3.20

STT Feb16 110 Call for $1.20

GD Jan26 207.5 Call for $3.50

SHW Feb16 +430/-450 Call spread for $6.60 (backtest was call only - i chose spread)

NSC Jan26 155 Call for $2.40 (intentionally opened a day early, which turned out to be 2 days early)

 

On Friday, I'm planning to open a SBUX 30DTE 50-delta straddle and the same setup for INTC (both to be closed on day of earnings)

Posted

BA -- I am updating my bid for another trade on BA to reflect current delta 40 (350) and delta 50 (357.5) strikes.  Hoping for a temporary retracement.

Posted
28 minutes ago, greenspan76 said:

@NikTam Nope. Very happy, but I had to delete it from my watchlist after closing it - too easy to look back and regret things and make a dumb decision the next time.

I opened a few trades this morning. I thought today was Jan 18th and they were supposed to be opened at the end of the day today, but no - I was a day early. Also opened one that I thought was a day early, but was 2 days early.

 

SEIC Feb16 75 Call for $3.20

STT Feb16 110 Call for $1.20

GD Jan26 207.5 Call for $3.50

SHW Feb16 +430/-450 Call spread for $6.60 (backtest was call only - i chose spread)

NSC Jan26 155 Call for $2.40 (intentionally opened a day early, which turned out to be 2 days early)

 

On Friday, I'm planning to open a SBUX 30DTE 50-delta straddle and the same setup for INTC (both to be closed on day of earnings)

Thanks for sharing.  I do like SHW http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180117210250_YnNvbIUrgcHoGWnc

 

Posted
59 minutes ago, mustafaoe said:

See also OSK, TSS

I'm not feeling it for these tickers.  Not compelling back test results.  And wide spreads and low volume.

Posted (edited)
42 minutes ago, greenspan76 said:

@NikTam Nope. Very happy, but I had to delete it from my watchlist after closing it - too easy to look back and regret things and make a dumb decision the next time.

I opened a few trades this morning. I thought today was Jan 18th and they were supposed to be opened at the end of the day today, but no - I was a day early. Also opened one that I thought was a day early, but was 2 days early.

 

SEIC Feb16 75 Call for $3.20

STT Feb16 110 Call for $1.20

GD Jan26 207.5 Call for $3.50

SHW Feb16 +430/-450 Call spread for $6.60 (backtest was call only - i chose spread)

NSC Jan26 155 Call for $2.40 (intentionally opened a day early, which turned out to be 2 days early)

 

On Friday, I'm planning to open a SBUX 30DTE 50-delta straddle and the same setup for INTC (both to be closed on day of earnings)

So the SBUX would be this:  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180117211359_XT35bvU4SRBY9aXJ

Looks good to me.

Don't we want to enter this tomorrow? 19-20-21-22-23-24-25  7 days.  Close on the 25th.  So 0 days before earnings.

Edited by NikTam

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