SteadyOptions is an options trading forum where you can find solutions from top options traders. Join Us!

We’ve all been there… researching options strategies and unable to find the answers we’re looking for. SteadyOptions has your solution.

Risk Reward Vs. Probability Of Profit


How many times did you hear the following claims:

  • "Our system has 90% success ratio".
  • "Our trades have 1 to 4 risk reward".
  • “Always keep your reward to risk ratio greater than 1”
  • “Only take trades with a minimum of a 2:1 reward to risk ratio”
  • “If you aim for more than you risk, then you will make money.”

Lets examine those statements and see how you should put them in context and consider other parameters as well. We will use vertical spread strategy as an example.

 

Lets take a look at the following trade:

 

  • Sell to open RUT August 1175 call
  • Buy to open RUT August 1185 call

 

This is the risk profile of the trade:

 

242c61bf5c2cb13bc166d07a3e4b07c9.png

 

As we can see, we are risking $822 to make $177. This is pretty bad risk reward. However, the picture looks a lot better when we look at the probability of success: it is 78%. We need the underlying to stay below 1175 by August expiration, and there is 78% chance that it will happen.

 

In this trade, bad risk/reward = high probability of success.

 

Lets take a look at another trade:

 

  • Sell to open RUT August 1100 call
  • Buy to open RUT August 1110 call

 

This is the risk profile of the trade:

 

805ce5f279c5ed97f47c3bd2dc82c603.png

 

As we can see, we are risking only $185 to make $815. That's terrific risk/reward (more than 1:4). The only problem is that RUT will have to go below 1110, and there is only 20.7% probability that this will happen. (In fact, to realize the full profit, RUT has to go below 1100 and stay there by expiration).

 

In this trade, excellent risk/reward = low probability of success.

 

The following table illustrates the relation between probability of success and risk-reward:

 

503bc5dca55716d5f4ea06ba2ea53329.png

 

Of course, this is not an exact science, but it helps us to see the approximate relation and trade-off between the risk-reward and the probability of success.

 

So next time someone will ask you: "Would you risk $9 to make $1?" - consider the context. Yes, it is a terrible risk/reward, but considering high probability of success, this is not such a bad trade. It will likely be a winner most of the time - the big question is what you do in those cases it goes against you?

 

At the same time, the answer to the question "Would you risk $1 to make $9?" is also not so obvious. It is an excellent risk/reward, but the probability to actually realize this reward is very low.

 

In trading, there is always a trade-off. You will have to choose between a good risk-reward and a high probability of success. You cannot have both.

 

Watch the video:

 


If you want to learn more about options strategies:

 

Start Your Free Trial

What Is SteadyOptions?

12 Years CAGR of 114.5%

Full Trading Plan

Complete Portfolio Approach

Real-time trade sharing: entry, exit, and adjustments

Diversified Options Strategies

Exclusive Community Forum

Steady And Consistent Gains

High Quality Education

Risk Management, Portfolio Size

Performance based on real fills

Subscribe to SteadyOptions now and experience the full power of options trading!
Subscribe

Non-directional Options Strategies

10-15 trade Ideas Per Month

Targets 5-7% Monthly Net Return

Visit our Education Center

Recent Articles

Articles

  • Optimizing Portfolio Growth: Managing Capital and Liabilities in Modern Tax Planning

    Growing your investment portfolio involves more than just picking winners. While strong returns are the goal, many investors overlook a critical factor that significantly impacts their net worth: tax planning. Managing your capital and liabilities with taxes in mind isn't just about saving money in April. It's a year-round strategy that can accelerate your portfolio's growth and help you keep more of what you earn.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 311 views
  • Expanded Trading Hours for Select Equity Options

    The Cboe Options Exchange will start offering expanded trading hours for select high-liquidity single-stock equity options. The schedule features a morning Global Trading Hours (GTH) session from 7:30 a.m. to 9:25 a.m. ET and an afternoon Curb session from 4:00 p.m. to 4:15 p.m.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 521 views
  • How LEAPS Differ From Short-Term Options

    LEAPS stands for Long-Term Equity Anticipation Security. Which is just a long-dated option, typically referring to those with expirations more than a year out. There’s no technical difference between LEAPS and shorter-term options other than the expiration date. They’re traded on the same exchanges and have the same rules surrounding margin and whatnot.

    By Pat Crawley,

    • 0 comments
    • 31068 views
  • Why Not to Hold Strangles Through Earnings

    In my previous article, I described a strategy of buying a long strangle a few days before earnings and selling them just before earnings. In this article, I will show why it might be not a good idea to keep those strangles through earnings.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 6042 views
  • Pre-Earnings Entry Price: What 31,000 Cycles Say

    Every card in the scanner carries a block called How expensive is this entry? It compares what you would pay today against what the same setup cost on the same ticker at the same point in past cycles. I built that block in August. It reads well. But a reading that looks sensible and a reading that predicts something are different things, and until last week I had only the first.

     

    By Romuald,

    • 3 comments
    • 573 views
  • Expensive Compared to What?

    A trader looks at a pre-earnings straddle and asks whether it is expensive. It is the right instinct and the wrong question, because the word carries no meaning on its own. Expensive against what? A $12 straddle on a $200 stock is not expensive or cheap. It is $12.

    By Romuald,

    • 0 comments
    • 484 views
  • Beyond Strategies: What Options Traders Should Know

    Options education almost always begins with structures. Traders learn vertical spreads, calendars, butterflies, condors, covered calls and straddles, study the expiration diagrams, work out maximum profit and loss, and build a sense of the conditions each structure is supposed to suit. That foundation is necessary and there is no way around it.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 992 views
  • SPX vs SPY Options: Which One Should You Trade? (2026 Guide)

    Both SPX and SPY options give you exposure to the S&P 500. They track the same 500 stocks, move nearly tick-for-tick, and offer the same core strategies — credit spreads, iron condors, butterflies, and 0DTE trades. Yet the two products settle differently, are taxed differently, and carry very different assignment risks.

    By krisbee,

    • 0 comments
    • 4946 views
  • Strike Price Effects Or Pinning Revisted

    Loyal readers of this blog will recall my post from 2019 “Pinning Down the ‘Option Pinning’”. If you have not heard of pinning have a look at that article as – spoiler – everything in it as well as Jeff Augen’s observations in his books which are referenced is still valid.

    By TrustyJules,

    • 0 comments
    • 2243 views
  • Could This Strategy Be The Holy Grail Of Investing?

    This is a reprint of my Seeking Alpha article from 2013. If you have SA subscription, you can read the full article including hundreds of comments here. For the record, the strategy implementation has changed since then, but the principle remains the same. You can read more here

    By Kim,

    • 6 comments
    • 5670 views

  • Upvote 1
  Report Article


We want to hear from you!


Guest AkramMajed

Posted

Trading always comes hand in hand with risk and is directly proportional to success. If don't take risk you will not succeed.

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Of course. But it is also important to understand the trade-off between the risk-reward and the probability of success. It is important to understand that when implementing a 90% winning ratio strategy, you sacrifice something - it doesn't come for free. 

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites

This sounds like one of those "there isn't a right or wrong answer"... I think by place 90% probabilty trades you will be close to "picking up nickles infront of a steamroller"... on the other hand, if you do the 10% probabiliyt trades, they will be lottery tickets and you will rarely win... I don't think neither of those trades can be profitable unless you tweak that system. In the 90% chance trade, it will be that 10% that will wipe you out... 

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Absolutely. It all comes to trade management.

 

There is still a small edge on all those trades (10%, 90% or 50%) due to the fact that in the long term, Implied Volatility tends to be slightly higher than Historical Volatility. But the main edge comes from the trade management.

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites

With the picking up nickels in front of a steamroller analogy doesn't that really only apply with the spread moves completely against you. Can't you avoid the steamroller by putting a stop loss in place? Are there brokers that have a function where you can have the strategy close out if the underlying security hits a dollar amount? You may get your arm clipped but not run over....

 

I placed an $AAPL bull put spread where I bough the Aug 15 93 put and sold the Aug 15 94 put. I collected 150$ premium and rode it out to collect 90% of the premium before closing out the trade. (The only reason I don't hold into expiration is I am trying to avoid after hours trading debacles)

 

If I had parameters in place to avoid it ever even getting to the 94 mark, wouldn't it make sense to place this trade over and over and over if the probability of success is there?

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Most brokers have this functionality. You just set a contingent order to close or adjust based on certain parameters. We do it all the time in our Steady Condors portfolio. 

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest uktrader

Posted

what you have forgotten to explain is that even with a 78 percent win rate you could still get 4 to 5 losing trades in a row so risking 800 to make 200 in your exanple would be a financial disaster should you run into these horrendous losing clusters

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Guest uktrader said:

what you have forgotten to explain is that even with a 78 percent win rate you could still get 4 to 5 losing trades in a row so risking 800 to make 200 in your exanple would be a financial disaster should you run into these horrendous losing clusters

Of course. But this is true with any trade. This is where position sizing and risk management come in place. If you make 10-15% on you winning trades, you cannot afford to lose more than 20-25% on your losing trades.

There are few dimensions to every trade. Risk/reward, probability of success, risk management etc. The point is that you cannot take just one dimension (like 80% winning ratio) and say that this is what makes this trade better than others.

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites



Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.

Guest
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...