CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

[krisbee]

stock: TIF

https://tm1.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180306194652_a1MypoNcC9jPLS5N

9:3 win loss ratio

[IgorK]

We need some kind of shared calendar with entry dates

Edited March 6, 2018 by IgorK

[zxcv64]

49 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: TIF

https://tm1.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180306194652_a1MypoNcC9jPLS5N

9:3 win loss ratio

I will probably do this one tomorrow, but I have to remind myself that most of the profit for this test came in an one outrageous move in May 2015. The other profits were much smaller than this, and so in this case, one earnings has distorted the overall picture, in a positive way. The 9:3 ratio is good though.

 

[IgorK]

1 minute ago, zxcv64 said:

I will probably do this one tomorrow, but I have to remind myself that most of the profit for this test came in an one outrageous move in May 2015. The other profits were much smaller than this, and so in this case, one earnings has distorted the overall picture, in a positive way. The 9:3 ratio is good though.

 

CML test says 3 days before...  Tomorrow will be 9 days... Do I miss something?

[zxcv64]

Just now, IgorK said:

Do I miss something?

No, you are fine....it's me who is suffering from a case of distorted thinking :-)

 

I meant "I will open this trade on the day that is recommended by the CML test".

[RapperT]

6 hours ago, krisbee said:

I think this time earnings might be on March 20th. Option exp on 3/23.

looks like 3/19 according to ORCL website

[zxcv64]

A straddle with a difference - post earnings. 

Stock : TGT

What : buy a 50 delta long straddle

When : Open 1 day after earnings and close 7 days after

What's the return: 318% over 3 years with a 8:3 win:loss ratio.

https://tm3.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180303120101_hiJrSCLPg1ORfusg

 

I'll open this later on in the day when the vol and stock have reached some sort of equilibrium.

[Maji]

Here is a table from Optionslam that lists the post earnings move by TGT.

 

EARNINGS DATE	PRE-EARNINGS CLOSE	POST-EARNINGS OPEN		PERCENTAGES REPRESENT PRICE CHANGE RELATIVE TO PRE-EARNINGS CLOSE FOR SPECIFIED NUMBER OF CALENDAR DAYS
		PRICE	PERC%	1 DAY	3 DAYS	5 DAYS	8 DAYS	13 DAYS	21 DAYS	34 DAYS	55 DAYS
Tue 03/06/2018 BO	$75.14	$74.25	-1.18%	-4.45%	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Wed 11/15/2017 BO	$60.09	$56.26	-6.37%	-9.86%	-3.24%	-3.24%	-4.32%	-7.07%	3.51%	6.64%	11.79%
Wed 08/16/2017 BO	$54.35	$57.00	4.87%	3.6%	2.39%	2.39%	3.88%	0.16%	5.51%	8.72%	3.49%
Wed 05/17/2017 BO	$54.53	$56.96	4.45%	0.93%	2.67%	2.67%	-0.73%	-0.23%	0.09%	-5.17%	-7.97%
Tue 02/28/2017 BO	$66.91	$57.41	-14.19%	-12.16%	-13.39%	-14.28%	-17.59%	-17.26%	-18.74%	-17.51%	-18.12%
Wed 11/16/2016 BO	$71.44	$77.50	8.48%	6.42%	6.64%	6.64%	9.85%	8.79%	7.46%	7.83%	-0.01%
Wed 08/17/2016 BO	$75.48	$70.48	-6.62%	-6.42%	-7.1%	-7.1%	-4.96%	-5.86%	-7.12%	-8.73%	-8.77%
Wed 05/18/2016 BO	$73.61	$67.48	-8.32%	-7.62%	-6.72%	-6.72%	-5.88%	-6.39%	-7.29%	-7.63%	-1.45%
Wed 02/24/2016 BO	$73.98	$74.39	0.54%	3.98%	6.0%	6.0%	9.6%	9.23%	10.35%	11.9%	12.74%
Wed 11/18/2015 BO	$72.91	$71.64	-1.74%	-4.29%	-2.85%	-2.85%	0.34%	-0.56%	-0.34%	-1.64%	-0.67%

 

Looks like the average 8 day move (taking the highest and lowest out) is around 4% ish. Those are nice gains for a 4% move.

 

[zxcv64]

Thanks Maji, this is very useful. A 4% gain would be enough to give a good profit on a straddle, depending on how soon it happened after the position opening, and how the volatility held up.

Do you know if the figures in your table are the closing daily prices? 

[rasar]

Anyone holding MRVL ? What's the thinking ?

[Djtux]

Just now, rasar said:

Anyone holding MRVL ? What's the thinking ?

I'm about 38% gain, so i might close that today. I believe the earnings are tomorrow AMC.

What's your position %P&L ?

[rasar]

53% in 2 tranches - 76% on one half, and 34% on the other.

Najarian was on CNBC talking about buying the 25 calls and holding for 10-12 days, which awakened the greedy pig in me.

[NikTam]

3 hours ago, zxcv64 said:

A straddle with a difference - post earnings. 

Stock : TGT

What : buy a 50 delta long straddle

When : Open 1 day after earnings and close 7 days after

What's the return: 318% over 3 years with a 8:3 win:loss ratio.

https://tm3.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180303120101_hiJrSCLPg1ORfusg

 

I'll open this later on in the day when the vol and stock have reached some sort of equilibrium.

I just bought the Mar 16 71.5 straddle for 2.65

[Sirion]

MRVL minor loss (1%?), NAV ~-33% loss. 

[zxcv64]

1 minute ago, NikTam said:

I just bought the Mar 16 71.5 straddle for 2.65

You got in cheaper than I did at 2.72 an hour ago. Lets see how this one goes. I'm curious to do more CML trades which are different from the long call variety.

[Djtux]

4 minutes ago, Sirion said:

MRVL minor loss (1%?), NAV ~-33% loss. 

I exited my MRVL today after my 40% gain exit triggered. In 0.76 out 1.07.

What was your entry strike, expiry, price ?

[Sirion]

Just now, Djtux said:

I exited my MRVL today after my 40% gain exit triggered. In 0.76 out 1.07.

What was your entry strike, expiry, price ?

I entered at a much less opportune time - this was MRVL #3 for me. I exited just now for my Mar 9 18 24.5 at .55. Entry was the same I think (maybe .56?, not showing on my screen in tradier). I was showing a loss which recovered today.

[NikTam]

Just exited NAV for 37% loss.   Better than the 53% loss I was seeing this morning.

Exited COST this morning for 42% loss.  It got worse so glad I exited early.

 

Bearish and/or choppy markets don't always ruin these momentum plays, but it seems to me they often do.

Edited March 7, 2018 by NikTam

[rasar]

Exited MRVL. Didn't seem to want to break past the 23.90 resistance. 2 lots - 23.5 Call Bought 0.59, Sold 1.07, and 24 Call Bought 0.60, Sold 0.84.

Thanks @Djtux

 

[NikTam]

TGT straddle looking good.  I will exit for gain if it hits 68.75.   Then look for another entry.

Edited March 8, 2018 by NikTam

[rasar]

2 hours ago, rasar said:

Exited MRVL. Didn't seem to want to break past the 23.90 resistance. 2 lots - 23.5 Call Bought 0.59, Sold 1.07, and 24 Call Bought 0.60, Sold 0.84.

Thanks @Djtux

 

Dang...and there goes MRVL. 24.14, for anyone still in the trade.

[NikTam]

23 hours ago, NikTam said:

TGT straddle looking good.  I will exit for gain if it hits 68.75.   Then look for another entry.

I missed my chance yesterday for a decent gain.  TGT now recovering.

[zxcv64]

7 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I missed my chance yesterday for a decent gain.  TGT now recovering.

That and volatility is down significantly today across the board. Some of our SO straddles are struggling too.

[greenspan76]

Closed two trades this morning:

AVGO Mar23 255 Call: In $6.50, Out $12, Gain of 84% - I got out early as I was concerned this was a temporary news-based jump in price and it was an already great gain.

MU Mar23 57.5 Call: In $1.77, Out $3.73 avg, Gain of 109% - probably got  a little too eager to exit when I saw 100%+ gains. Price is $4.15 as of this writing.

[siddharth]

Were these trades from the cml newsletter ?

[greenspan76]

18 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Were these trades from the cml newsletter ?

Yes. AVGO was posted in August (don't have the link, but the setup is 50delta Call 14DTE 6/0, SL/LG 50%) and MU was just posted a few days ago (http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11964&app=news&cml_article_id=20180306_micron-technology-inc-momentum-comes-in-short-bursts-ahead-of-earnings)

Edited March 12, 2018 by greenspan76

[krisbee]

stock: RH

11:1 ratio

https://tm1.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180310170312_5B1mEf2VIbnDJvdk

[krisbee]

stock: NKE

7:1 ratio

https://tm1.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180310162424_oddeKi0nRrNaBFbj

[IgorK]

30 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: NKE

7:1 ratio

https://tm1.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180310162424_oddeKi0nRrNaBFbj

7:2 ratio for 60 and 50 deltas. is it to look for? 40 delta ratio is 6:2

Edited March 12, 2018 by IgorK

[ykotowitz]

2 hours ago, krisbee said:

stock: RH

11:1 ratio

https://tm1.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180310170312_5B1mEf2VIbnDJvdk

Note: 7 to 0 days is much better at delta =50. (for 2years). delta =30 is best for 1 or 3 years.

[krisbee]

2 hours ago, IgorK said:

7:2 ratio for 60 and 50 deltas. is it to look for? 40 delta ratio is 6:2

I opened few NKE 66 calls. (march 23)

[NikTam]

NKE PE Momentum:  I like the 40 delta.  Have bid in for Mar 23 68.5 call.  Just filled at 1.26

 

Edited March 13, 2018 by NikTam

[NikTam]

20 hours ago, ykotowitz said:

Note: 7 to 0 days is much better at delta =50. (for 2years). delta =30 is best for 1 or 3 years.

I would agree -- will look to get in 3/22 (T-7) or 3/20 (T-5).  Will also give more time to see if we get a better trend.

Edited March 13, 2018 by NikTam

[Djtux]

10 minutes ago, NikTam said:

NKE PE Momentum:  I like the 40 delta.  Have bid in for Mar 23 68.5 call.  Just filled at 1.26

Looking good, but i already have a hedged straddle on NKE, so i can't allocate more on NKE.

[IgorK]

55 minutes ago, NikTam said:

NKE PE Momentum:  I like the 40 delta.  Have bid in for Mar 23 68.5 call.  Just filled at 1.26

 

The same...  Do you have a stop limit?

And it is down...

Edited March 13, 2018 by IgorK

[greenspan76]

I also picked up a NKE pre-earnings call a little earlier, but I chose to go with the Apr20 67.5 Call (50delta) for $2.08.

[NikTam]

2 hours ago, IgorK said:

The same...  Do you have a stop limit?

And it is down...

CORRECTION I have a stop loss alert set at 65.90.  I do have a GTC sell to close order at 50% gain.

Edited March 13, 2018 by NikTam

[IgorK]

1 minute ago, NikTam said:

I have a stop loss alert set at 65.50.  I do have a GTC sell to close order at 50% gain.

Thank you..  looking at the charts don't you think that momentum was yesterday around 14:30?

[NikTam]

55 minutes ago, greenspan76 said:

I also picked up a NKE pre-earnings call a little earlier, but I chose to go with the Apr20 67.5 Call (50delta) for $2.08.

That looks good too.  I liked the extra "heat" showing up on the 40 delta.

[Sirion]

I'm missing out on a few of this trade type (pre earnings long call). I'm in NKE straddle, so I'm okay there, but definitely want to put on 2+ of these in the next few days.

[NikTam]

7 minutes ago, IgorK said:

Thank you..  looking at the charts don't you think that momentum was yesterday around 14:30?

Yes it does appear so.  Hopefully it will come back as we get nearer to earnings.

[IgorK]

20 hours ago, NikTam said:

CORRECTION I have a stop loss alert set at 65.90.  

Looks like it's coming there. yesterday was high IV day...  ORCL 53 straddle is down too...

[IgorK]

So is anyone out of NKE... Or still holding?

[rasar]

I'm still holding. I got in the 68 call at 1.25 yesterday.

[IgorK]

1 minute ago, rasar said:

I'm still holding. I got in the 68 call at 1.25 yesterday.

Looks like thre is some correlation between VXX and NKE.  If VXX down - NKE up. And vice versa

[ablanco]

hahahahahahaha

[NikTam]

Still holding.  

[IgorK]

8 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Still holding.  

Looks like it's broke loose. 

[Mark100]

Hi,

I am considering purchasing the CML TradeMachine software and am wondering if anyone who has been using it for a while would be willing to post their results.

Thanks very much,

Mark

[zxcv64]

12 minutes ago, Mark100 said:

and am wondering if anyone who has been using it for a while would be willing to post their results.

I believe there are at least a couple of experienced guys on here who have a good track record with CML. 

Give me another week or so, and when I have completed another 7 trades, I will post my results (currently on 93 CML trades).