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CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

NikTam

By NikTam
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zxcv64
zxcv64

Having completed a 100 CML trades, I thought I would summarise my results.    Summary : 100 trades, 66 winners, overall profit of 12.1% PER TRADE.   Here is a detailed breakdown, w

greenspan76
greenspan76

This topic was a little more active a while back and I had intended to give an update on my results at the 1 year mark, but I've been busy with other projects the last few months. My first CML trade w

cuegis
cuegis

Here is an example of how I have used CML as an adjunct to the SO calendar trades, pre earnings. We know that those calendars , on their own, are very good trades, with a great success rate.

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NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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I will wait for ATHM to turn around.  I am in MRVL and it is looking very good on the 30 min and 1 hour charts since market open -- key reversal on those time frames.

Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted
Just now, NikTam said:

I will wait for ATHM to turn around.  I am in MRVL and it is looking very good on the 30 min and 1 hour charts since market open -- key reversal on those time frames.

Damn, a 1.5% pop since I mentioned it. Ouch, may have missed getting in. Hmm.

Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

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I chose a horrible time to get back into MRVL, but now might be good if you're on the sidelines. I also just got into ATHM, as it looks like it found a bottom. As always, I am not a TA person, so your own risk etc etc (see current MRVL situation).

greenspan76 Hero Member

greenspan76

Posted
Posted

Closed ADSK Mar23 115 Call for 56.8% gain. In $5.40, Out $8.50. Also tried to open a second round of THO today when the stock dropped below 129, but with a bid/ask of 6.40/7.00 on the Apr20 130 call, I couldn't get a fill after bidding as high as 6.80. Now that its jumped back up a couple dollars and has bid/ask of 8.20/8.80, I'm going to probably pass on a second THO pre-earnings call.

Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Anyone enter the 40 delta on athm yet ?

I entered the Mar 79.26 calls for 3.9. You can get them for less now, mid around 3.65. 

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Sirion said:

I entered the Mar 79.26 calls for 3.9. You can get them for less now, mid around 3.65. 

Looks like it may have bottomed.  I have bid in at 3.70 for Mar 16 79.26 call.   (I've never seen a strike like this?)

I raised to 3.80 and was filled.  Half position.

Edited by NikTam
Djtux Hero Member

Djtux

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Looks like it may have bottomed.  I have bid in at 3.70 for Mar 16 79.26 call.   (I've never seen a strike like this?)

I raised to 3.80 and was filled.  Half position.

That's the convention in the US. Normal dividends doesn't change the strikes but special dividends might.

Other countries have sometimes different conventions.

https://www.theocc.com/webapps/infomemos?number=42298

Quote

Autohome Inc. (ATHM) has announced a Special Cash Dividend of $0.74 ($0.76 less $0.02 ADS fee) per ATHM American Depositary Share. The record date is January 4, 2018; the payable date is January 16, 2018. The ex-distribution date for this distribution will be January 3, 2018.

Strike prices will be reduced by 0.74. (For example, a strike of 17.50 will be reduced to 16.76; a strike of 90.00 will be reduced to 89.26)

 

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IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 2/27/2018 at 2:39 PM, IgorK said:

 

Too late.

    BOT    1    KR Mar09'18 28 CALL    0.66  

I'll let you know.

Closed for 0.70. Didn’t like the behavior .Strange stock.

EDIT: And of cause it picked up.. Grrr...

Edited by IgorK
akito Hero Member

akito

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 2/26/2018 at 10:48 AM, krisbee said:

stock: NAV

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180225181449_st5T3ZPHymSmEWHX

image.png

NAV now has a confirmed earning date. March 8, BO. Anybody looking to enter? Unfortunately too late for a hedged straddle like last cycle. Straddle RV alone is kinda high. Outsized move last cycle though. Anyways, can still do a long call. Last cycle in December was good even though the cmlviz link doesn't show it. Hm.

Edited by akito
greenspan76 Hero Member

greenspan76

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Posted
18 minutes ago, akito said:

NAV now has a confirmed earning date. March 8, BO. Anybody looking to enter? Unfortunately too late for a hedged straddle like last cycle. Straddle RV alone is kinda high. Outsized move last cycle though. Anyways, can still do a long call. Last cycle in December was good even though the cmlviz link doesn't show it. Hm.

Yes. I entered earlier today (though as of now, guess I should have waited). In Mar16 40 Call for $1.35 when it was 38.35

IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, greenspan76 said:

Yes. I entered earlier today (though as of now, guess I should have waited). In Mar16 40 Call for $1.35 when it was 38.35

Mar16, not Mar09?

greenspan76 Hero Member

greenspan76

Posted
Posted (edited)

@IgorK Yeah, I was looking for a 40delta call on Mar9, which would have been the 39 strike, but it was missing for some reason. Seeing the liquidity of Mar16 in comparison, I just decided to go out a week further and go for the round strike (which was 40 delta at the time)

Edited by greenspan76
IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted
Just now, greenspan76 said:

@IgorK Yeah, I was looking for a 40delta call on Mar9, which would have been the 39 strike, but it was missing for some reason. Seeing the liquidity of Mar16 in comparison, I just decided to go out a week further and go for the round strike (which was 40 delta at the time)

I see.. According to CML charts 20 delta is the best...

greenspan76 Hero Member

greenspan76

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, IgorK said:

I see.. According to CML charts 20 delta is the best...

I don't usually buy straight calls below 40delta, even if CML shows better results. Although it seems obvious that if a trade is working due to gamma gains, the lower delta strikes will make more on a percentage basis, that works both ways - it will lose more on a percentage basis when it doesn't go your way. Since these are already pretty high risk/high reward trades, I don't see the need to add more risk/reward by going with the lower delta trade. Doesn't mean my way is right, but that's the way I view things.

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Djtux Hero Member

Djtux

Posted
Posted

Just an update from me, i only have a MRVL call remaining. I think i will not open a new call position unless either the markets are back to bullish mode, or it's on a stock i know more.

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, NikTam said:

I'm still hanging on to MRVL, YY and ATHM.  YY is the one that concerns me most.  YY earnings are AMC on

 

 

Edited by NikTam
Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, akito said:

Closed my NAV call that I opened end of day yesterday. 55% loss. Luckily, super tiny allocation.

wait what? did you buy 3/2 instead of 3/9? I'm only showing a 10% loss right now.

Edit: I guess there's a huge spread? Did you do a market order or just drop really quickly?

Edited by Sirion
NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, Sirion said:

I'm in MRVL, ATHM, and NAV. MRVL is the only one with deep losses at the moment. I'll evaluate later in the day.

 

Edited by NikTam
akito Hero Member

akito

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sirion said:

wait what? did you buy 3/2 instead of 3/9? I'm only showing a 10% loss right now.

Whoops. Sorry about that. Multi-tasking at work again (sigh, I need to stop doing this, because it never works out well). I mixed up my positions when typing my comment. I entered the mar16, 39.5 call sometime around 1pm for -1.28 debit. not end of day. Closed for 0.57 credit. It's now at 0.65 credit. I admit my decision was a rash one. (multi-tasking...)

SBatch Hero Member

SBatch

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I've seen this movie before and I think this market is on a knife edge. If it tumbles today the next floor down for SPY is around 254 (I think).  Then I think Monday would be even worse.

Let's not get over the top here.  Predicting a 4% drop for the day seems a little outrageous.

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, SBatch said:

Let's not get over the top here.  Predicting a 4% drop for the day seems a little outrageous.

 

Edited by NikTam
SBatch Hero Member

SBatch

Posted
Posted
Just now, NikTam said:

You're probably right.  But didn't SPY drop nearly 4% in one day in early February?  And about 6% over two days?

Yes and it was a massive anomaly historically.  The VIX also rose more in percentage terms in a day any time in history.  However, assuming that is the new norm and making predictions for the day based on historical outliers is typically not prudent.  That is the type of psychology that makes people buy and sell at exactly the wrong times.

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sirion said:

I closed ATHM for 50% profit. Market so volatile I'm happy to take a big win off the table.

Still have MRVL and NAV on, both hovering around -20%.

That's fantastic.  I regret not keeping it (ATHM & YY).  But I knew I would be away from my desk for 2-3 hours and wouldn't be able to keep an eye on it.  Will get back into the game next week!

Edited by NikTam
krisbee Hero Member

krisbee

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Posted
17 minutes ago, IgorK said:

Earning are not confirmed yet.  So what would be the entry date? Thursday or Friday?

I think this time earnings might be on March 20th. Option exp on 3/23.

Spread Advanced Member

Spread

Posted
Posted

May I ask where in CMLviz the entry moment relative to the earnings date is mentioned? I only see a days till expiration mentioned ? Also I'm looking at it in read-only mode.

greenspan76 Hero Member

greenspan76

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Hielke said:

May I ask where in CMLviz the entry moment relative to the earnings date is mentioned? I only see a days till expiration mentioned ? Also I'm looking at it in read-only mode.

If you're looking at shared links, you'll have to view the trade details to see the entry point. For example, in the ORCL link shared a few posts above, if you click the 50 delta summary and scroll down to the Mar 11, 2015 entry, it will say "Open...6 days before earnings" in gray letters just above the actual trade opened. Should be easy to see once you take a look

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Spread Advanced Member

Spread

Posted
Posted (edited)

Ok got it, thanks a lot. Are you informed about these kind of opportunities when you subscribe to the CMLviz service ? Or do you have to look for them youself ?

Edited by Hielke

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