CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

[zxcv64]

16 hours ago, IgorK said:

INFY, NFLX

INFY haven't confirmed earnings date yet, but looks interesting.

 

 

"Now that things are getting back into swing, anyone looking at any other pre-earnings trades?"

 

I have just, in the last 5 mins before close, opened a couple of long delta 40 calls in STZ and AYI. 

STZ - https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20171211103708_9Ygksble9Tq4OQPi

Nothing spectacular, returning 240% in 3 years with 8 wins and 4 losses.

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by zxcv64

[Maji]

@zxcv64 I am worried that my overall portfolio is too much biased towards long positions. The SVXY trades added to that bias. Now, if I add those calls, the bias will further increase. The whole purpose of why I try these options trades is to try to be delta neutral. Combine it with my IRA/401-K, I am always net long, but now I am worried about these long side momentum plays. Just trying to see what others think about this matter.

[zxcv64]

15 hours ago, Maji said:

I am worried that my overall portfolio is too much biased towards long positions.

And quite rightly too. I realise that a lot of my trades, esp CML ones, are long calls (or long delta), and in this bull market, Santa-rally, Jan-effect scenario, that can give a false sense of success.

"A rising tide lifts all boats" as the saying goes. So, I'm also looking for delta neural/negative trades, and CML is great for that - trade idea coming below.

 

Meanwhile. I'm keen on exploring :

1) commodities futures options. These will give true diversification from equities. I'm hoping a couple of the regular commodities guys here will start posting trade ideas etc and we can kick start this huge area and it will grow just like the....

2) volatility trades. The SVXY trades are great, and as are the VXX diagonals - both extremely scalable - however, I need to explore more options for a stagnant/falling market. As we haven't experienced that for a while, when it happens, I'm sure experienced folks like SBatch will provide guidance and trades to take advantage.

3) non-long-call trades on CML. Here's one :

Am trying to post a link, but it won't work, as it simply shows this - https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php - so enter the following on CML backtest.

 

MSM

Put

Long

Custom Earnings

Open Position 7 days before Earnings

Close position 1 day before earnings

Gains Above 40%

Loses Above 50%

Days to Exp 7

 

......and bingo...... you get a 950% return on 25 delta long puts for 3 years with a 8:3 win loss ratio. (This is not a recommendation, and pls do your due diligence. I myself need to examine the details of the test later on today, and the entry for this trade would be tonight.)

 

Ultimately, your question is about portfolio allocation/management. It's something I need to get greater structure on. I think it maybe worth starting a new thread in the appropriate forum.

 

 

Edited January 3, 2018 by zxcv64

[cuegis]

17 minutes ago, zxcv64 said:

And quite rightly too. I realise that a lot of my trades, esp CML ones, are long calls (or long delta), and in this bull market, Santa-rally, Jan-effect scenario, that can give a false sense of success.

"A rising tide lifts all boats" as the saying goes. So, I'm also looking for delta neural/negative trades, and CML is great for that - trade idea coming below.

 

Meanwhile. I'm keen on exploring :

1) commodities futures options. These will give true diversification from equities. I'm hoping a couple of the regular commodities guys here will start posting trade ideas etc and we can kick start this huge area and it will grow just like the....

2) volatility trades. The SVXY trades are great, and as are the VXX diagonals - both extremely scalable - however, I need to explore more options for a stagnant/falling market. As we haven't experienced that for a while, when it happens, I'm sure experienced folks like SBatch will provide guidance and trades to take advantage.

3) non-long-call trades on CML. Here's one :

Am trying to post a link, but it won't work, as it simply shows this - https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php - so enter the following on CML backtest.

 

MSM

Put

Long

Custom Earnings

Open Position 7 days before Earnings

Close position 1 day before earnings

Gains Above 40%

Loses Above 50%

Days to Exp 7

 

......and bingo...... you get a 950% return on 25 delta long puts for 3 years with a 8:3 win loss ratio. (This is not a recommendation, and pls do your due diligence. I myself need to examine the details of the test later on today, and the entry for this trade would be tonight.)

 

Ultimately, your question is about portfolio allocation/management. It's something I need to get greater structure on. I think it maybe worth starting a new thread in the appropriate forum.

 

 

It is interesting that you bring this up. Because, I think it was less than a week ago , where I posted the question..."has anyone either read one of CML's  new findings from a backtest, or, found an interesting new approach, that they hadn't thought of before, which profited from a "CML" trade that came from the item going DOWN?"

I have not read any of their own postings that spoke of a new finding , which came from a down move in anything.

Nor have have I found a backtest that found the same.

From day 1, although I really like this tool, and have always praised it, I brought up the point that , we have been in an historical bull market, for nearly a decade (certainly, the most intense part during the last 5 years, which CML data goes back), and yes, the rising tide would obviously lifted all correlated boats. And since CML does not allow for backtesting of commodities, everything that it does test, is more correlated than not.

It is still a great tool, and we are in a bull market, so it has has provided me with many new ideas, not only in terms of new strategies, but it also brings new stocks into my radar ,that I might not have ever looked at.

But, to add to your point, I traded commodities, on the floors of 3 different exchanges, for 30 years,before I ever traded a stock, or stock option, so , as it was my first "trading" experience, for such a long time, I still default back to commodities because that is where I'm more comfortable.

I definitely have been doing better, in recent times, in commodities, than with stocks, even by applying the same types of strategies.

And, I always feel more at ease for the main reason you bring up about the fact that they are very un correlated to each other, so I feel more balanced than if I was holding mostly delta long stock positions.

It is a path you should look into further.

[NikTam]

Entered STZ for 3-1 Pre Earnings trade. (Earnings on the 5th BMO so should have entered yesterday).  Jan 19 230 Call at 4.50.  Monthly only available.  The shorter time frames look better -- 2 year is only 75%.  Small position with 25% stop loss.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180103150612_QK9klIieMd8H2cgs

Edited January 3, 2018 by NikTam

[krisbee]

stock CHKP

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180103163336_azf0phDHbnf2JI1A

 

[krisbee]

2 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock CHKP

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180103163336_azf0phDHbnf2JI1A

 

@SBatch @Yowster CHKP looks like even entering straddle is good? I don't see much dip in RV going forward for this.

 

[SBatch]

4 minutes ago, krisbee said:

@SBatch @Yowster CHKP looks like even entering straddle is good? I don't see much dip in RV going forward for this.

 

No weeklies on CHKP and they have not yet confirmed earnings if looking at a straight straddle play.  Also, very small move after the last release so I'd personally be very conservative with an entry on a straight straddle.

[Yowster]

2 minutes ago, SBatch said:

No weeklies on CHKP and they have not yet confirmed earnings if looking at a straight straddle play.  Also, very small move after the last release so I'd personally be very conservative with an entry on a straight straddle.

@SBatchI'm seeing last cycle move was very big drop in stock price, almost double the implied.

 

@krisbee Agree with Sbatch, earnings date not confirmed (and plenty of cycles where earnings was late in January, beyond the monthly expiration).    Also, RV has been varied a lot with CHKP from cycle to cycle so tough to predict.

[SBatch]

2 minutes ago, Yowster said:

@SBatchI'm seeing last cycle move was very big drop in stock price, almost double the implied.

 

@krisbee Agree with Sbatch, earnings date not confirmed (and plenty of cycles where earnings was late in January, beyond the monthly expiration).    Also, RV has been varied a lot with CHKP from cycle to cycle so tough to predict.

 

@Yowster Yes reviewing the chart I see the big gap down, I was basing it on OptionSlam:

 

EARNINGS DATE	IMPLIED MOVE APPROACHING EARNINGS				INSIDE OR OUTSIDE IMPL. MOVE			POST EARNINGS: AT MARKET CLOSE
	PRE-ER CLOSE	POSITION	STRADDLE @TRADE PRICE	IMPLIED MOVE		MAX MOVE	I/O		CLOSE PRICE	STRADDLE @TRADE PRICE	RETURN

 

Oct. 31, 2017 BO	$116.49	@$115.00	$9.15  ($116.49)	7.96%		1.63%	I		$117.71	$9.10  ( $117.71 )	-0.55%
July 20, 2017 BO	$115.72	@$115.00	$5.14  ($116.32)	4.42%		-8.58%	O		$107.41	$7.60  ( $107.17 )	47.85%
April 27, 2017 BO	$104.22	@$105.00	$5.70  ($104.22)	5.46%		2.13%	I		$104.39	$3.25  ( $104.30 )	-42.98%
Jan. 19, 2017 BO	$89.61	@$90.00	$3.67  ($89.61)	4.1%		9.27%	O		$96.34	$6.80  ( $96.84 )	85.28%
Oct. 31, 2016 BO	$80.98	@$82.50	$4.82  ($80.98)	5.84%		4.93%	I		$84.56	$3.50  ( $84.56 )	-27.38%
July 26, 2016 BO	$83.64	@$85.00	$5.27  ($83.64)	6.3%		-6.27%	I		$80.53	$4.90  ( $80.07 )	-7.02%
April 20, 2016 BO	$88.88	@$90.00	$6.17  ($88.88)	6.94%		-6.6%	I		$86.06	$5.00  ( $86.00 )	-18.96%
Jan. 28, 2016 BO	$75.20	@$75.00	$6.25  ($75.20)	8.31%		6.31%	I		$76.84	$4.25  ( $76.54 )	-32.0%
Oct. 26, 2015 BO	$80.43	@$80.00	$5.09  ($80.43)	6.34%		3.35%	I		$80.98	$3.44  ( $80.96 )	-32.41%

 

[siddharth]

@cuegis

what is your plan for rad with earnings today ?

[cuegis]

Just now, siddharth310584 said:

@cuegis

what is your plan for rad with earnings today ?

I'm going to be an "outlier" today, and "knowingly" do the wrong thing.

I sold 1/3  of my position yesterday for .42, and I'm going to take a shot and hold through earnings.

It's just a combination of things  that , at another time, I would not do this.

The past few weeks have been good, and it is a very defined risk situation.

They are .38 cent options that expire in April. They will not be $0.00 tomorrow, so it is a low risk ( .20 cents?) calculated risk.

I'm just making a guesstimate that it will either be a .20 cent loss, or maybe a surprise gain, that could be as much as , well,who knows?

[siddharth]

3 hours ago, cuegis said:

I'm going to be an "outlier" today, and "knowingly" do the wrong thing.

I sold 1/3  of my position yesterday for .42, and I'm going to take a shot and hold through earnings.

It's just a combination of things  that , at another time, I would not do this.

The past few weeks have been good, and it is a very defined risk situation.

They are .38 cent options that expire in April. They will not be $0.00 tomorrow, so it is a low risk ( .20 cents?) calculated risk.

I'm just making a guesstimate that it will either be a .20 cent loss, or maybe a surprise gain, that could be as much as , well,who knows?

Given this didn’t go our way, what’s you plan to get out ?

[cuegis]

21 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Given this didn’t go our way, what’s you plan to get out ?

Well, like I said...the only reason I went against "the rules", and held through, was because the were only .38 cent , in the money, calls, with 4 months of time remaining.

Nobody is going to get ",slaughtered" , no matter how wrong they might turn out to be.

What we now have is "at the money, 50 delta" calls, (at least for the moment), with nearly 4 months remaining.

I can't even guess as to what they will trade at tomorrow (assuming the stock is at $2.00) but, I can guaranty that they will not be $0.00, with 4 months of time and a 50 delta.

Just think of it from a "sellers" point of view.

If you were a seller, would you sell 4 months of 50 deltas for .05 cents, for example?....or .10 cents?

You would have to be insane!

So, if we open at $2.00, or very close to it, they should be , at least .15, or more.

If we hold at $2.00, I will watch it for awhile......I certainly have plenty of time to do that.

[siddharth]

Ah. I think we have different calls. I have the 1.50 ones expiring in April. 

[cuegis]

5 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Ah. I think we have different calls. I have the 1.50 ones expiring in April. 

Well, that has a different dynamic, If we hold the $2.00 level, you have .50 cents, no matter what, plus the price of the $1.50 put, which actually could be .05 -.10 cents.

You would never sell a $2.00 call , with 3-4 months of time, for .10 cents, because the stock , theoretically, could go up forever.

But, you would be more inclined to sell a $1.50 put, since the stock can only go to $0.00.

The worst case for you , is a worse case, since you can lose the whole thing.

But, we have not traded lower than $1.95 since earnings, so you have at least .50 cents of value in your options (.45 + the $1.50 put, which is probably .05-.10).

I would not be shocked if we rallied.

If they can't get it to go down, below $1.95, then it could rally.

 

[siddharth]

Thank you 

[cuegis]

15 hours ago, siddharth310584 said:

Thank you 

Hey...it looks like exactly what I said has materialized .....so far!

I'm surprised that all of the option, immediately post earnings, have not lost any value.

Both the $1.5, and $2.00 are basically unchanged, with the stock unchanged.

But, it did hold the $2.00 level,and now it is rising......

[siddharth]

Are you going to continue to hold this then ?

[Sirion]

On 1/3/2018 at 9:07 AM, NikTam said:

Entered STZ for 3-1 Pre Earnings trade. (Earnings on the 5th BMO so should have entered yesterday).  Jan 19 230 Call at 4.50.  Monthly only available.  The shorter time frames look better -- 2 year is only 75%.  Small position with 25% stop loss.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180103150612_QK9klIieMd8H2cgs

Hope you remembered to close yesterday. I entered this trade with a smaller than normal allocation due to entering late, similar to you. Closed for ~15% loss. 

[NikTam]

23 minutes ago, Sirion said:

Hope you remembered to close yesterday. I entered this trade with a smaller than normal allocation due to entering late, similar to you. Closed for ~15% loss. 

Yes, I closed yesterday for 25% loss.  I jumped back in this morning at the opening low and bot Feb 18 220 calls for 4.20.  Small position but I want my money back.  Not a CML trade.

Edited January 5, 2018 by NikTam

[NikTam]

Just exited STZ 220 call for 5.50 -- so recovered my loss from yesterday and am flat STZ.

[akito]

On 12/26/2017 at 10:21 AM, krisbee said:

stock: INFY

https://tm1.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171226151540_K7jQAMLjpma0zlFa

 

Anybody planning on opening an INFY call today? (or have already done so?)

 

(earnings are confirmed)

Edited January 5, 2018 by akito

[Alex Papas]

10 minutes ago, akito said:

Anybody planning on opening an INFY call today? (or have already done so?)

 

(earnings are confirmed)

There are no weeklies???!!!

[IgorK]

3 minutes ago, Tniko said:

There are no weeklies???!!!

Yep.  Jan19 16 call .70

[Alex Papas]

1 minute ago, IgorK said:

Yep.  Jan19 16 call .70

 

Jan19 is a monthly. The CML test was with 7 days exp. calls, i.e. Jan12.

[IgorK]

1 minute ago, Tniko said:

 

Jan19 is a monthly. The CML test was with 7 days exp. calls, i.e. Jan12.

Right... Had to check trades....

[akito]

41 minutes ago, Tniko said:

There are no weeklies???!!!

Although there are no weeklies and the cmlviz backtest specifies 7 days expiry, the trade logs show that the backtest used the closest thing to 7 day expiry, which would be the closest monthly.

 

Edit:

Just opened a few Jan19, 16 calls for 0.70 debit.

Edited January 5, 2018 by akito

[NikTam]

INFY 7-1 PE Momentum Trade.  Looks good. Thanks for alert. I just paid .75 for half position.  Will hold out for .70 for other half.  I have a Stop Loss set at -25% since that didn't alter the results in any significant way.  

[akito]

On 1/5/2018 at 1:10 PM, akito said:

Although there are no weeklies and the cmlviz backtest specifies 7 days expiry, the trade logs show that the backtest used the closest thing to 7 day expiry, which would be the closest monthly.

 

Edit:

Just opened a few Jan19, 16 calls for 0.70 debit.

Filled GTC order to close INFY calls for 0.93 credit. 32.8% gain. Great find, @krisbee !

Edited January 9, 2018 by akito

[krisbee]

stock: STT

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180108160125_Dt4Md2Ww439Ob6o0

[krisbee]

stock: SEIC

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180108155754_qRvwbBl2sui5OdIb

 

[krisbee]

stock: TXN

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180108160940_4AwDPy4q2H0TqmL6

[Sirion]

10 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: STT

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180108160125_Dt4Md2Ww439Ob6o0

STT earnings is predicted at 1/23, this is a 3-1 PE momentum trade. Looks good to me. Next friday?

9 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: SEIC

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180108155754_qRvwbBl2sui5OdIb

 

SEIC earnings is predicted at 1/24, this is a 7-1 PE momentum trade. Looks good to me for next Wednesday to enter. 

9 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: TXN

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180108160940_4AwDPy4q2H0TqmL6

TXN earnings is predicted at 1/23, 7-1. Would be next Tuesday to enter.

 

Thanks for the heads up, these are great finds. NOTE: earnings date I listed are just basic google estimates, I haven't gone to individual sites to confirm. I plan to do that when we get a little closer.

[IgorK]

1 minute ago, Sirion said:

STT earnings is predicted at 1/23, this is a 3-1 PE momentum trade. Looks good to me. Next friday?

SEIC earnings is predicted at 1/24, this is a 7-1 PE momentum trade. Looks good to me for next Wednesday to enter. 

TXN earnings is predicted at 1/23, 7-1. Would be next Tuesday to enter.

 

Thanks for the heads up, these are great finds. NOTE: earnings date I listed are just basic google estimates, I haven't gone to individual sites to confirm. I plan to do that when we get a little closer.

There is an ability to set time alert in IB TWS. Did anyone try it? Did it work?

[cuegis]

25 minutes ago, krisbee said:

stock: SEIC

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180108155754_qRvwbBl2sui5OdIb

 

It's interesting how the percentages continually decrease the lower the delta

[NikTam]

On 1/5/2018 at 1:53 PM, NikTam said:

INFY 7-1 PE Momentum Trade.  Looks good. Thanks for alert. I just paid .75 for half position.  Will hold out for .70 for other half.  I have a Stop Loss set at -25% since that didn't alter the results in any significant way.  

Exited this morning for 25% gain.

[NikTam]

1 hour ago, Sirion said:

STT earnings is predicted at 1/23, this is a 3-1 PE momentum trade. Looks good to me. Next friday?

SEIC earnings is predicted at 1/24, this is a 7-1 PE momentum trade. Looks good to me for next Wednesday to enter. 

TXN earnings is predicted at 1/23, 7-1. Would be next Tuesday to enter.

 

Thanks for the heads up, these are great finds. NOTE: earnings date I listed are just basic google estimates, I haven't gone to individual sites to confirm. I plan to do that when we get a little closer.

Thank you @Sirion  for heads-up on these. 

I am also looking at INTC for a 14-1 PE entry this Thursday http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180103194744_p219KftWjMlOluAk

And ASML 3-1 PE entry this Friday http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20180102174139_mCDRSUwHLzeTLWdw

 

Edited January 9, 2018 by NikTam

[NikTam]

Also BA 7-1 PE entry next Wednesday http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20180101092532_ErP5lhAzsB4TtuuS

And MSFT 14-1 PE entry next Wednesday http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20180101092532_ErP5lhAzsB4TtuuS

Nice to be back in earnings season!

 

Also CAT 3-1 PE entry Monday Jan 22nd.  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20180101092627_FpqUrgOZCbEgaLE4

and UTX 3-1 PE entry also on Monday Jan 22nd.  http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20180101092627_FpqUrgOZCbEgaLE4

 

Please do your due diligence but these are what I found for Qtr 1 so far....

Edited January 9, 2018 by NikTam

[greenspan76]

48 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Thank you @Sirion  for heads-up on these. 

I am also looking at INTC for a 14-1 PE entry this Thursday http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20180103194744_p219KftWjMlOluAk

And ASML 3-1 PE entry this Friday http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=s_0_20180102174139_mCDRSUwHLzeTLWdw

 

EDIT: Nevermind. I found it...Jan 25th AC (https://www.intc.com/investor-relations/events-and-presentations/events-calendar/default.aspx)

 

Has INTC released their earnings date yet? I don't see it on their website

Edited January 9, 2018 by greenspan76

[Mdahl]

Has anyone thought about researching the inverse of these bullish trades?  Like many of you, I'm always trying to think of how to hedge against a significant market move that hurts my (mostly bullish) trades. Seems like it may be helpful to see if we have some names that are bearish 80-100% of the time heading into earnings (or post-earnings for that matter, as criteria could be flexible).

The idea would be we could win on both are bullish and bearish trades in the best case scenario, but that we would hopefully be hedged if the market turns significantly (following the "paired trade" concept).

I don't follow this thread as closely, so I apologize if this idea has already been floated.  Just thought I'd ask.

[NikTam]

2 hours ago, greenspan76 said:

EDIT: Nevermind. I found it...Jan 25th AC (https://www.intc.com/investor-relations/events-and-presentations/events-calendar/default.aspx)

 

Has INTC released their earnings date yet? I don't see it on their website

Thank you for confirmation  -- just found it also.

[patbelcher]

@NikTam - are you thinking about entering any of the trades mentioned above. Paper trading AMAT - not so good so far.

STZ did not work out either.

INTC is looking kinda good - sitting at the 50 day MA.

ASML - not too sure about that one.

JMO

Thanks!

[NikTam]

INTC is not in a good place from what I see.  Very choppy with no sustained direction going into this earnings announcement.  I'm assuming this is news driven given newly discovered chip vulnerabilities and the "slow patch" that is being talked about.  I'm going to hold off for now.

https://newsroom.intel.com/news/intel-responds-to-security-research-findings/?cid=sem43700029310890166&intel_term=%2Bintel+%2Bflaw&gclid=Cj0KCQiAkNfSBRCSARIsAL-u3X-P_REyUNtvfmYvzAa42PZBO27euAN_hezY_fxIU1Nkxpw4l_4D8cAaAhi0EALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds&dclid=CLvRu8m0ztgCFYmNaQodUlQBEA

[NikTam]

ASML could be great -- or not.  Gapped down this morning.  If it gaps up to fill tomorrow morning, I will be go for it.  It's a 3:1 PE so it will happen quickly one way or another!

[cuegis]

5 minutes ago, NikTam said:

ASML could be great -- or not.  Gapped down this morning.  If it gaps up to fill tomorrow morning, I will be go for it.  It's a 3:1 PE so it will happen quickly one way or another!

TLT did that exact same thing, all in one day today!

[NikTam]

2 minutes ago, cuegis said:

TLT did that exact same thing, all in one day today!

It gapped down on Tuesday, and again today but then as you know made it's way back up to Tuesday's close.  I'm going to feel best about ASML if it gaps back up tomorrow morning.  Otherwise I will wait until end of trading day to decide.  It ended well today with a nice hammer candle on the 2 hour.

[Sirion]

32 minutes ago, NikTam said:

INTC is not in a good place from what I see.  Very choppy with no sustained direction going into this earnings announcement.  I'm assuming this is news driven given newly discovered chip vulnerabilities and the "slow patch" that is being talked about.  I'm going to hold off for now.

https://newsroom.intel.com/news/intel-responds-to-security-research-findings/?cid=sem43700029310890166&intel_term=%2Bintel+%2Bflaw&gclid=Cj0KCQiAkNfSBRCSARIsAL-u3X-P_REyUNtvfmYvzAa42PZBO27euAN_hezY_fxIU1Nkxpw4l_4D8cAaAhi0EALw_wcB&gclsrc=aw.ds&dclid=CLvRu8m0ztgCFYmNaQodUlQBEA

This is a perfect reason to skip a trade like this. The thesis is that certain stocks almost always have positive momentum going into earnings. A bad news cloud like this hanging over the stock could suppress this significantly. I will skip as well.

I'm more likely to enter ASML either way.

[patbelcher]

Thanks for your feedback everyone!

[greenspan76]

I've been pretty bad at updating trades lately. Here's my most recent CML-based trades (I've developed a shorthand for the trading parameters, which I'm copying from my spreadsheet: [Symbol  TradeType  OptionExpiration  Deltas  Timing  Stops/Limits] using these abbreviations: ^ = delta, x/xx = days open/closed before or after earnings{its obvious which it is}, SL/LG = stop loss/limit gain). IC means Iron Condor where I'm short higher deltas and long lower deltas

ADBE +17.5%   (IC 14DTE 40/15^ 1/14, SL/LG40%)

FDX -91.8%   (IC 21DTE 35/15^ 2/21) - not the SO trade; missed closing for a 40% gain by about 0.05, so that kinda sucked

STZ -20.3%   (Call ~7DTE 40^ 3/1, SL/LG 40%)

NVDA +50.9%   (TTM_Squeeze) - nearly stopped out for -50% before a big turnaround

INFY +37.2%   (Call ~7DTE 40^ 4/1, SL/LG 40%) - closed at 40% pre-commissions

 

Also, I'm planning to open:

ASML (Call Mthly 40^ 3/1, SL/LG 40%)

NFLX (Call 0-7DTE 40^ 7/1, SL/LG 50%)

TXN (Call 7DTE 40^ 7/1, SL/LG 40%)

STT (Call 7DTE 40^ 3/1, SL/LG 40%)

SEIC ( Call 7DTE 50^ 7/1, SL/LG 40%) - waiting for earnings date announcement

 

And may consider (if premiums would result in a 30%+ return when held to expiration, which likely won't happen with JPM):

JPM (ShortPS 30DTE 40/15^ 2/29, SL50%)

WFC (ShortPS 37DTE 50/20^ 2/32) - will use Feb monthlies if I open it

 

Overall, I've now made 103 CML-based trades with an average gain of 7.2% and average holding period of 14 days. The post-earnings ICs have been big losers on average (7 trades / -41.8% avg) and the post-earnings Short PS's are now the most consistent (35 trades / +10.2% avg) 

Edited January 11, 2018 by greenspan76