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CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

NikTam

By NikTam
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izzo70 Hero Member

izzo70

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

What product is this ? And how do you plan to use this information ? Is this used to sell credit spreads ?

It's just a grid layout on the Tastyworks (web based platform) where you can sort stocks based on high to low IV Rank (or vice versa), earnings date, IV etc... 

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zxcv64
zxcv64

Having completed a 100 CML trades, I thought I would summarise my results.    Summary : 100 trades, 66 winners, overall profit of 12.1% PER TRADE.   Here is a detailed breakdown, w

greenspan76
greenspan76

This topic was a little more active a while back and I had intended to give an update on my results at the 1 year mark, but I've been busy with other projects the last few months. My first CML trade w

cuegis
cuegis

Here is an example of how I have used CML as an adjunct to the SO calendar trades, pre earnings. We know that those calendars , on their own, are very good trades, with a great success rate.

Posted Images

izzo70 Hero Member

izzo70

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Is it free ? And how do you use this info ?

It's not free unless you have a brokerage account with Tastyworks, but I don't think there is a minimum to open one.  Higher IV Rank and IV gives you greater credit on (net) selling of options is one way.

Edited by izzo70
cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, izzo70 said:

Yeah same thing it's just part of tastyworks now.  It's on their web based platform only.  It's not available on the software.

So, it is no longer available to non-TW customers anymore.

It is no longer "Dough"?

And I cannot have access to it unless I open an account?

izzo70 Hero Member

izzo70

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, cuegis said:

So, it is no longer available to non-TW customers anymore.

It is no longer "Dough"?

And I cannot have access to it unless I open an account?

As far as i know dough is shut down (although the corp is still under the dough name) you can try and log into the tastyworks platform on the web with your dough user id and password and see if that will get you in, but probably not.

Here is a link https://trade.tastyworks.com/tw/login 

If that doesn't work you will have to open an account and fund it with a couple bucks in order to gain access as they don't have paper trading/ trial accounts as of yet. 

 

Edited by izzo70
cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted

I went dough and tried to login.

Then I was guided to a place where I could use my pre TastyWorks , Dough login info, and it let me in to the page you posted.

So, I was able to gain access without signing up for TW

  • Haha 1
IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

How does ORCL look to ppl here ? was thinking of entering the long call a bit early on todays weekness.

Dec15 50 call?

siddharth Hero Member

siddharth

Posted
Posted

Earnings are 21. So 22nd 50 call. I’m in some already but it’s down today and wondering whether to get a bit more. Charts look ok to me but was looking to the experts here for some info. 

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
  • Author
Posted
8 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

How does ORCL look to ppl here ? was thinking of entering the long call a bit early on todays weekness.

Best back-test for P.E. is the 3/1 -- buy 3 days before and exit 1 day before.  So I will look at it closer to earnings.

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

How does ORCL look to ppl here ? was thinking of entering the long call a bit early on todays weekness.

It had a clear breakout on the charts last week. Today can be viewed as an opportunity to get in on a pullback.

My only concern is that it is down on such a large "up day" in the overall market.

Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, NikTam said:

AVGO getting hammered this morning -- an it was up almost 2% pre-market.  I may have to bail on this one.

It was up at the open too. I was +20% at one point. Now down almost 30%. Rough. If it drops much more might have to stop loss.

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Sirion said:

It was up at the open too. I was +20% at one point. Now down almost 30%. Rough. If it drops much more might have to stop loss.

I thought we were off to the races and bought back my short (I opened with a vertical on Friday).  Could not have been a worse decision.

I wonder if the pursuit of the Qualcomm buyout is muddying the waters?  Perhaps should have taken that into consideration before opening a position.

Edited by NikTam
Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted

 

1 minute ago, NikTam said:

I thought we were off to the races and bought back my short (I opened with a vertical on Friday).  Could not have been a worse decision.

Ouch. Personally, I'm going to give some room. I don't want to use a sharp intraday stoploss, as our backtesting only closes at EOD. I'm going to let it run unless something drastic happens. 

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Sirion said:

 

Ouch. Personally, I'm going to give some room. I don't want to use a sharp intraday stoploss, as our backtesting only closes at EOD. I'm going to let it run unless something drastic happens. 

$48.90 was the low of the day , on the breakout day Friday. That would be a number to keep your eye on.

But, EVERYONE is looking at that number so, if it breaks it, you could get a flurry  of stop losses.

If it breaks it and instantly comes up back through it to the upside, that usually is a form of breakout, back up again, after running all of the stops.

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted (edited)

Now that ORCL did what I had mentioned earlier (broke Fridays low of $48.90, and ran all of the sell stops, then rose back above that price) I am buying Jan 50's for $1.19.

Price needs to remain above 48.90

Edited by cuegis
cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

I have the dec 22. Should I roll them out to give more time. I had thought earnings were dec 21. 

Damn.....I forgot about earnings as I got caught up strictly in the chart situation.

And, I would never hold through earnings, so it wasn't neccessary for me to go to Jan monthlies.

But, there also is no harm in doing it either!

All nearby options series will hold up in terms of IV and, also less theta decay since earnings is approaching.

 

You should be owning, at the very least, the first expiration after earnings to get the benefits of theta and IV holding up.

Edited by cuegis
cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted

Out of ORCL.

The fact that it did not supposedly, run the stops at $48.90, and then come back up through that point to continue, is a failure.

So, small, tiny losses, keeps you alive, when you know you are wrong.

I'm not going to wake up tomorrow and see it down .45 cents, and be wondering what to do.

Safety first.

greenspan76 Hero Member

greenspan76

Posted
Posted
On 11/30/2017 at 8:51 AM, greenspan76 said:

Yeah. I got in the Dec15 280 call for $8.70 and will hold until Dec 6th unless there is either a 50% loss or a 50% gain first.

Missed most of the day today and a good portion of Friday, but this trade turned sour and my timing was pretty poor. Closed it out for $3.30, about 62% loss after commissions.

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, siddharth310584 said:

Do you have a stop loss on rad. I’m down 33% already with a stop loss at 40 but wondering if I should remove that for this trade. 

I didn't have a stop loss because it is an April expiration, that was .35 cents, and in the money at the time.

So, the risk was extremely low.

Yes, when just outright "buying" options, you "could" lose 100%.

But, we would either have to fall way, way more than we have, right now or....be much, much closer to April, before that would become an issue.

But, it is not good on my part to not have a clear , pre-defined, stop point.

At the moment, the chart still looks good. It had a major breakout, and now is in a pullback period.

Even if the pullback lasted another 2 weeks, we would be in mid-December, a LONG way from April.

Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted

Closed PLAY at a slight loss (then it immediately popped and could have closed for a slight win). ~5% loss. 

Closed VEEV for a ~20% loss. Unfortunate day.

AVGO deep underwater. Has one day left in it, going to let it ride.

apsoccermd Advanced Member

apsoccermd

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Sirion said:

Closed AVGO at 2.30. 57% loss. Ouch. This one could have benefited from a stop loss.

I got my behind handed to me on this one too... Will probably stay away from long outright premium.. maybe spread to soften the blow..

Edited by apsoccermd
  • Like 1
clems Advanced Member

clems

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Sirion said:

Closed AVGO at 2.30. 57% loss. Ouch. This one could have benefited from a stop loss.

Bummer :( I was stopped out of this long ago with a pretty sizeable gain.  Sorry to hear got the raw end!

Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted
Just now, clems said:

Bummer :( I was stopped out of this long ago with a pretty sizeable gain.  Sorry to hear got the raw end!

I went back in for a second pass on a pullback. Overall, slight loss. 

apsoccermd Advanced Member

apsoccermd

Posted
Posted
Just now, Sirion said:

I went back in for a second pass on a pullback. Overall, slight loss. 

Same thing ... Except I double down on my second go around.. .. and turned a winner into a really nice looser.. Great reminder of how not to trade options and why i am here placing none directional trades ;)

  • Like 1
cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, apsoccermd said:

maybe spread to soften the blow..

You got it. Unless you plan to outright buy single options, and only hold them for 1-2 days, for a directional trade, for anything longer than that, it is a good idea to use verticals to neutralize some of the negative greeks.

cuegis Hero Member

cuegis

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Sirion said:

So, we have a few trades coming up that were broadcast. ORCL, MU, and COST. All were advertised for 3-days out. 

ORCL also works well for 7-days out. http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171207144431_883OQqBMK6OUaCMq

The other two do not. 

I'm considering looking for a dip to buy in ORCL until the 3-day mark as a strategy. 

I chose COST from the 3 because it opened much lower, and recovered nicely. I got in when it was still down .70. I would think it is going to crack through unchanged into positive territory today.

I always prefer to buy on a dip than to chase a market that is already making it's move.

This was the case with MU, which was already up $1.00, although it still looks excellent.

zxcv64 Hero Member

zxcv64

Posted
Posted (edited)
18 minutes ago, krisbee said:

Stock: ADBE

https://tm2.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171206152540_8Yhx3DmCWO8hCvce

I took this one yesterday at 3.41. It's currently sitting at about 4.3. 

I've also just taken the post-earnings 21 day IC on AZO.

 

http://www.cmlviz.com/cmld3b/index.php?number=11712&app=news&cml_article_id=20170918_the-volatility-option-trade-after-earnings-in-autozone-inc&source=TM_insights

 

"Which timeline did you pick for this?"

I know this question is not intended for me, but I went for the 15Dec  

Edited by zxcv64
krisbee Hero Member

krisbee

Posted
Posted
Just now, Sirion said:

Which timeline did you pick for this? I'm having trouble getting cml to register me as logged in so I can bring up custom earnings to see your entry/exit timing.

I'm not cmlviz subscriber. I'm posting what other members found outside SO forum. 

I entered below

image.png

siddharth Hero Member

siddharth

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, cuegis said:

I chose COST from the 3 because it opened much lower, and recovered nicely. I got in when it was still down .70. I would think it is going to crack through unchanged into positive territory today.

I always prefer to buy on a dip than to chase a market that is already making it's move.

This was the case with MU, which was already up $1.00, although it still looks excellent.

What did you get into cost with and what price ?

Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, siddharth310584 said:

What did you get into cost with and what price ?

Just a heads up, cml backtesting does not show a clear edge this far away from earnings for COST. I plan on waiting until 3 days out like what was written up on their newsletter.

 

Edit: Purely based on cml. I'm not a chart or TA guy. 

Edited by Sirion
Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, NikTam said:

I am not seeing ADBE as a good PE trade based on CML back-testing...what am I missing?  I did confirm on Adobe's website that earnings are on 12/14.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171207160602_3lvZU9vVu4LCKI1n

Main difference between yours and mine is mine closes 0 days before earnings. ADBE apparently has a tendency to spike on the last day.

Still not sure what the difference between mine and what @krisbee posted is to get all the way to 7-1. 

I might wait for a dip in ADBE unless I figure out what that is, or worst case just trade the last day?

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
  • Author
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Sirion said:

Main difference between yours and mine is mine closes 0 days before earnings. ADBE apparently has a tendency to spike on the last day.

Still not sure what the difference between mine and what @krisbee posted is to get all the way to 7-1. 

I might wait for a dip in ADBE unless I figure out what that is, or worst case just trade the last day?

Yes.  I see that now.  Also it improves if you go to a monthly expiration -- 30 days.  The Jan 5 expiration would be 29 days.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171207161356_0BgNu4tgMAqhCuAV

Edited by NikTam
NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

Posted
  • Author
Posted
5 minutes ago, IgorK said:

3 days for ORCL and COST - this Friday or next Monday?

From CML support based on a inquiry I made several days ago:  For anything 3-days or less before earnings, we use trading days, not calendar days.

IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted
Just now, NikTam said:

From CML support based on a inquiry I made several days ago:  For anything 3-days or less before earnings, we use trading days, not calendar days.

So next Monday?

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