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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/16/23 in all areas

  1. Need help from experienced aussie traders on portfolio margin availability in Australia! I had brief stint of option trading on IB as individual retail trader last year (albeit account balance <30k). I wish to increase the scope of trading and exploring the idea of portfolio margin (for balances > 110k USD). I am reading conflicting information on IB Australia site on whether PM is available for Australian citizen. Is there any member from Australia using portfolio margin on IB successfully?
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  2. I don't mean to sound indifferent as I remember feeling like this too. I remember getting so excited about the official SO performance and I was day dreaming about all that money I was going to make. Each time I saw Yowster and other make profits when I was losing money felt like a knife being jammed into my heart. It sucked. I get it. Based on my own journey - the sooner you stop trying to duplicate the official trades and admit to yourself that you cannot duplicate them the better. Unsubscribe from the SO alerts and just follow the unofficial trades and the trade discussion group to see what people are looking at (many times you find these trades before the official ones giving you a chance to get in early). Are Kim and Yowster trying to pull a fast one on us? No - but you also cannot replicate their trades exactly because some of these trades have low liquidity. As soon as any market maker sees 100s of orders coming in at the same strike they are going to raise the price of the options. This means you will always get filled on the losing trades and maybe get filled on some % of the winning trades. This can easily flip a strategy that makes 50% a year to one that makes 0% per year. So - once you admit that to yourself you have two options: 1) Give up. Move onto the next guru who claims they can make you a millionaire. 2) Figure out how you can make this strategy work. Whenever you miss a trade you can complain which won't change anything or instead ask Yowster what exactly he was looking for when he entered. Learn from him so you can spot your own trades and maybe get in before everyone else. I went from complaining about SO and quitting here to just closing out several calendar trades for 30% each. None of them were official trades or even mentioned on the board here. Just used the information Yowster teaches us and VOLHQ to find my own setups.
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  3. tastytrade tried to Put The Nail In The Coffin On Buying Premium Prior To Earnings. They did it several times, and we debunked their studies several times. Kirk Du Plessis from OptionAlpha conducted a comprehensive study backtesting different earnings strategies. This is the part that is relevant to our pre earnings straddle strategy: The conclusion is that buying long straddle (or strangle) and closing the day before earnings is a losing proposition. The backtest included different entry days from earnings: 30, 20, 10, 5, or 1 day from the earnings event. Our real life trading results are very different: You can see full statistics here. The question many people ask us: are all those studies wrong? How their results are so different from our real life trading performance? The answer is that the studies are not necessarily wrong. They just have serous limitations, such as: The studies use the whole universe of stocks, while we use only a handful of carefully selected stocks that show good results in backtesting. The studies use certain randomly selected entry dates, while we enter only when appropriate. The studies use EOD (End Of Day) prices while we take advantage of intraday price fluctuations. The studies exit a day before earnings while we manage the trades actively by taking profits when our profit targets are hit. This makes a world of difference. If you are not a member yet, you can join our forum discussions for answers to all your options questions. Here is a classic example how real trading is different from "studies". On March 2 2:30pm we entered CPB straddle: The price was 3.05 or 6.5% RV. When considering a trade, we look at the straddle price as percentage of the stock price. We call it RV (Relative Value). We based our entry on the CPB RV chart: We exited the trade on March 3 10:05am for $3.45 credit, 13.1% gain EOD price on March 2 was 3.40 and EOD price on March 3 was 2.95. The study using EOD prices would show 13.2% LOSS while our real trade was closed for 13.1% GAIN. Two points that contributed to the difference: We have a very strict criteria for entering those trades. In some cases we might wait weeks for the price to come down and meet our criteria. Based on historical RV charts, we would not even be entering this trade at 3.40. On the last day, we did not wait till the EOD and closed the trade in the morning when it reached our profit target. This is just one example how a "study" can show dramatically different results from real trading. On a related note, using a dollar P/L in a study is meaningless - this alone disqualifies the whole study. The only thing that matter is percentage amount. Why? Because in order to get objective results, you need to apply the same dollar allocation to all trades. For example, lets take a look on stocks like AMZN and GM. AMZN straddle can cost around $200 and GM straddle around $2. If AMZN straddle average return was -10% or -$20 and GM average return was +50% or $1, the average return should be reported as +20%. In the study, it would be reported as -$9.5. Don't believe everything you read. Use your common sense and take everything with a grain of salt. I have a great respect for Kirk. He is one of the most honest, professional and hardworking people in our industry, but even the greatest minds sometimes get it wrong. Related articles: How We Trade Straddle Option Strategy Buying Premium Prior To Earnings - Does It Work? Can We Profit From Volatility Expansion Into Earnings? How We Made 23% On QIHU Straddle In 4 Hours Why We Sell Our Straddles Before Earnings
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