First execution report from a subscriber
Canuck Dave traded a pre-earnings strangle off the scanner this week and filled at +18% on the open. That's the first live execution report I've had since launch, and it's worth more to me than any backtest figure I could post — so thanks to him for sharing it, and for letting me quote it.
It also taught me something. The setup carries a +10% take-profit, but the position gapped through it overnight, so a limit order filled well above the target. That's a real execution path the backtest doesn't distinguish from an intraday touch, and I'm looking at how to model both properly.
The part I want to be careful about.
He mentioned going again because the next setup reads "cheap". I'd rather say that the cheapness gauge is not necessarily a green light.
It tells you where today's entry sits against past entries at the same point in the cycle. That shifts the odds across many cycles — it does not pick the next one. For example, a cheap entry on a setup with four cycles of history isn't a bargain. An expensive entry on one with twenty well-behaved cycles can still be worth taking. Read it next to cycle count and the earnings-move tile, not on its own.
The same applies to the win rate. 88% over 24 cycles means three of them lost, and nothing on the card tells you which three you're about to take.
None of that makes the tool less useful. It just means it does something narrower than "find winners" — it tells you what a trade is worth under stated assumptions, and where the numbers disagree with your intuition. That's the whole product.
Romuald
https://www.optionbench.com/
The blog is now live on optionbench.com. First piece is Expensive Isn't a Veto — about a setup my own entry gauges told me to skip, which then returned 42%, and what I think that actually means. It's the long version of the point above.
https://optionbench.com/blog/expensive-isnt-a-veto