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😂 Dave has broken nothing. Dave has found things — which is worse, because then I have to fix them. Three in one week. At this rate I'm putting him on the payroll or blocking his account, I haven't decided! Now I'm back, come on Dave, still waiting for your questions ...

New in OptionBench: the entry × exit matrix Pre-earnings scanners tell you what a setup returned. They rarely tell you when the return was there. I've added a matrix to the pre-earnings detail view — entry day down the side, exit day across the top. Each cell shows how often the target was actually reached between those two days, with the colour carrying the median return at the exit. The two numbers diverge more than I expected. On a CVS strangle entered at T-15 and held to T-8, 92% of cycles touched +10% on the way and 67% still held a gain at the exit. On AAPL entered T-15 and held to T-3, it's 75% against 25% — three cycles out of four offered the gain, one in four kept it. That gap is the argument for a take-profit, and I hadn't seen it stated in one figure anywhere. It reverses on a Calendar Put: 46% still in profit at the exit against 25% that touched +20%. A short-vol position drifts up on theta rather than spiking, so it rarely overshoots. The reversal is what tells you the gap belongs to the structure rather than to the arithmetic — checked on AAPL, AMD, NVDA, MU and CRWD. Cells built on fewer than 8 cycles are greyed with the count in superscript. On seven cycles a percentage can only take eight values, and one cycle moves it by 14 points. It's live now on the pre-earnings scanner, https://app.optionbench.com/dashboard/pre-earnings-scanner, pre-events tomorrow. Happy to hear where it's wrong.

@Bekim's AVGO calendar — shared with his permission A member messaged me before market close today after closing out an AVGO calendar. Sharing it with his blessing (email address redacted): Scaling out in thirds at +10%, +15% and +20% — that's the part I'd highlight, more than the ticker. He didn't swing for the best cell on the board; he set staged exits and let the position pay him on the way through. Exit discipline like that is what makes a good setup a good trade. For anyone who wants to study the same setup after the fact, here's what the calendar matrix showed for AVGO in that entry window: Below is the Entry today row from return matrix. And the standard honesty note, because one message doesn't change the math: a well-executed winner doesn't validate a strategy any more than one loser invalidates it. The losing cycles are still right there in the cell popup, and the next person opening this trade should size for them. What history gives you is a fair price for the bet — the discipline in how you enter, size, and exit is what this member supplied himself. @Bekim found AVGO RV line is historically low this cycle & entered the trade. He is pretty new user to EarningsStudy, he is still learning how to use various options strategies. And EarningsStudy has plenty of back tested strategies. If you've run your own setup through the app — win or lose — We from SteadyOptions team would love to see it because the losses teach the thread as much as the wins do. NOTE: I entered AVGO a little earlier than Bekim did, and a run of bad news knocked the stock from ~420 down to ~360 in the span of three days. It's a good reminder for the calendar strategy: even a 100% win rate in past cycles doesn't guarantee the next one. But with proper positioning and re-centering, the P/L can still be managed — that's the part that comes with experience. SO members on the ALL bundle: full core access to EarningsStudy is free through the partnership — sign in at earningsstudy.com with your SO email. Historical/educational analysis, not financial advice or a trade recommendation. Options trading involves substantial risk.

Enjoy your time away will try not to break anything while you are gone