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Showing content with the highest reputation since 04/02/2024 in all areas
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11 pointsMember of the month award for May goes to @Bullfighter for his continuous contribution to SY forums.
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10 pointsMember of the month award for August goes to @Chuck451 and @TraderSL for their continuous contribution of trading ideas and analysis.
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8 pointsAs has become my end of year tradition, I’ve broken down the Steady Options 2024 trade performance by trade type. Numbers were taken directly from the data in the Performance screen (plus some recently closed trades). Here’s are this year’s stats along with some comments from my perspective. Where applicable, I added totals from prior years for comparison. 2024 was a year where market volatility was calm with VIX under 20 for the first half of the year. The second half of the year turned more volatile with several VIX spikes into the 20’s and beyond, along with a general run-up into the election and a decline afterwards. So, we had both calm periods and more volatile periods. Pre-Earnings Calendars 54 Trades – 43 win, 10 loss,1 break-even (81% win) – Average Gain +12.13% 2023: 65 trades (85% win) – Average Gain +9.56% 2022: 11 trades (64% win) – Average Loss -9.55% 2021: 110 trades (79% win) – Average Gain +12.82% 2020: 33 trades (85% win) – Average Gain +21.97% 2019: 54 trades (65% win) – Average Gain +9.27% 2018: 40 trades (78% win) – Average Gain +9.61% 2017: 31 trades (84% win) – Average Gain +13.81% 2016: 44 trades (80% win) - Average Gain +15.07% 2015: 51 trades (80% win) – Average Gain +12.67% 2014: 48 trades (71% win) – Average Gain +13.80% 2013: 24 trades (88% win) – Average Gain +20.60% Comments: We were able to a good number of calendar trades this year, the majority of which occurred during the calmer period of the year when VIX was lower. Very good overall winning percentage and average gain per trade. We avoided big losses that can sometimes happen when stock prices make very large moves. Earnings calendars continue to be a core SO strategy. Straddles/Strangles 57 Trades - 41 win, 15 loss, 1 break-even (73% win) – Average Gain +4.72% Breaking down further by hedged and non-hedged: Non-Hedged – 38 win, 14 loss, 1 break-even (73% win), average gain +5.18% Hedged – 3 win, 1 loss (75% win), average gain +0.95% 2023: 166 trades (64% win) – Average Gain +1.65% 2022: 148 trades (71% win) – Average Gain +4.89% 2021: 129 trades (68% win) – Average Gain +3.27% 2020: 118 trades (67% win) – Average Gain +2.80% 2019: 106 trades (68% win) – Average Gain +3.58% 2018: 72 trades (83% win) – Average Gain +5.40% 2017: 77 trades (79% win) – Average Gain +5.02% 2016: 18 trades (72% win) – Average Gain +5.19% 2015: 44 trades (68% win) – Average Gain +2.61% 2014: 74 trades (62% win) – Average Gain +2.54% 2013: 104 trades (57% win) – Average Gain +1.35% Comments: Lower number of straddle/strangle trades compared to prior years, due primarily to introduction of double diagonal (DD) trades which will be discussed later. Overall winning percentage and average gain per trade were at the upper end of the range based on prior year performance. From a downside risk perspective, only 2 losses above 10%, with one larger loss on a hedged straddle that saw an RV drop orders of magnitude higher than prior cycles. 37% of trades hit 10% gain target, which is at the upper end of the range compared to prior years. Very low risk trades as it takes RV dropping much more than their prior cycle tendencies to be significant losers Double Diagonals DD trades were introduced this year with the goal of having performance similar to straddles/strangles – but have the ability for the trades to be open for much longer periods of time (up to 3 weeks prior to earnings) giving the stock more time to move but still have minimal downside risk. 52 Trades - 38 win, 14 loss (73% win) – Average Gain +4.86% Comments: High winning percentage, with roughly 3 of 4 trades being winners. All losing trades were under 10% losses, majority of losses were under 5%. So this is a very low risk trade type with minimal downside risk Average gain was at the upper end of the range compared with straddle/strangle results of prior years – so the goal of performance being similar to straddles/strangles was achieved. 35% of trades hit 10% gain target, which is at the upper end of the range compared to straddle/strangle trades in prior years. Other Trades Non-Earnings RICs: 4 win, 1 loss (80% win) – Average Gain +3.52%%. These non-earnings trades have higher downside risk if stock price doesn’t move. In this case the 1 loss needed 2 wins to compensate. Hedged ratios and BWBs: 4 win, 7 loss (36% win) – Average Loss -10.55%. These were hedged directional trades, a few oversized losses hurt the average. S&P500 addition date trade: 3 win, 1 loss (75% win) – Average Gain +3.28%. These trades play for stock price decline (or at least staying flat) after the S&P500 addition. The one loser hurt the average as all 3 gains were 10%+. We will likely do trades like things with future S&P500 stock additions. Other: A few successful index Iron Condors and the closure of one long-term UNG ratio diagonal for an oversized loss. Net result of these trades was basically break-even from a percentage gain/loss perspective. Summary 2024 Steady Options model portfolio was up around +118% for the year. This result was right around the average yearly return since SO’s inception. It’s good to be able to say that trades based on SO techniques had such a high return as “average”. As always, I’d like to highlight and thank the SO community. We continue to have a group of very smart people that seems to grow each year who share their ideas and knowledge – this is what makes SO great. Looking forward to 2025. 2023 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2022 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2021 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2020 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2019 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2018 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2017 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2016 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2015 Year End Performance by Trade Type
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7 pointsLike many other new members, I went through a frustrating time on Steady Options. I almost gave up on it very early on, but luckily, I hung around. Having been here a while now, I’ve seen other newbies come full of enthusiasm and leave full of disappointment, walking the same frustration-filled path that I left behind. I’ve examined my own journey, and can break it down into various stages. So, here they are. Other peoples’ journey may be very different, but I hope that my pathway may shed some light, or give some hope to others who find themselves shouting at the cat for no reason, like I once did. 1) Initial Enthusiasm I joined full of hope and excitement, lured by the mouth-watering annual returns, thinking “If I can make even half of those returns, then I’ll be a happy-chappy”. Motivation Level : 10/10 2) Frustration with Fills Okay, I’ve been a member for a few weeks, and have tried to enter a few trades, but each time, I cannot even get close to the official entry price. I give up on many trades and enter others at the wrong price, resulting in more losers than winners. Motivation Level : 7/10 3) Frustration turns to Fury (well almost) It’s now many trades later and the fills are not getting any easier. It’s getting annoying seeing others open trade after trade and close it two days later at a profit, whilst my GTC order to buy is sitting idle on some exchange gathering dust. I’m a mild-manner guy, who wishes no ill-will on anyone, and thought I didn’t have a dark side, but the ugly monster of jealousy is tapping me on the shoulder and saying “Damn, there’s another guy who’s just closed the GOOG calendar for 30% ….AND….he’s gone in and out twice already this cycle, whilst you can’t even get in once?”. I'm anything BUT a happy-chappy. Motivation Level : 3/10 4) “I’ve had enough” Months have rolled on, my SO portfolio is not showing any gains whilst the official portfolio is showing a healthy number. I don’t even bother trying to enter any SO trades now, and hardly logon to the forums. I’m bitter and just waiting for my membership to expire. Motivation Level : 1/10 5) The last Attempt Over a year has gone by, and the anger and frustration has turned to “Let me give this lousy service one last chance, before my membership expires”. I register with one of the two charting services (ChartAffair/VolatiltyHQ), and spend the whole weekend reading up on old trades, and asking myself “Why did Kim enter this calendar at this price? How does he know that it should be a 1-week or a 3-week calendar?” I look at the RV charts and start to see that the official trades are entered at very low RV’s and every time I over-pay, I’m reducing my chances of profitability. I’m seeing patterns in the calendar RV charts – a ramp up as we get to earnings, a zig-zag pattern that allows others (who I envied) to go in-and-out of trades multiple times. Same for the RV charts for straddles. I’m starting to see why Yowster thinks something is a good buy or not. My head is filled with little “ah-ha” moments and learnings, and the next few days I watch live prices and then I do the un-thinkable – I open my own calendar trade on PANW for 0.89. The very next day, Kim opens the same Put calendar for 1.05 – Bingo! I feel a sense of un-controllable excitement, not just cos I received validation that my trade was correct, but that I actually got a better price than the official. (https://steadyoptions.com/forums/forum/topic/4106-trades-panw-november-2017-calendar/?tab=comments#comment-87397) Motivation Level : 7/10 6) Creating my own Trades I spend Nov and Dec ’17 coming up with tons of my own trades – calendars and straddles. I'm not really too sure of what I'm doing, so some are winners and many are losers. I’ve started doing something else – I’m now keeping a proper journal. Every trade is logged together with the rationale behind it. If it goes wrong, I try to understand why. I’m trading full-time and this has become all-consuming, but I am enjoying it. My knowledge and skill level is rapidly increasing. For the first time, I make a profit for the month (12.9% for Nov ’17). I’m on a high. I still try to enter official trades, but don’t get upset if I miss many. I do this for a few months, averaging around 6% monthly profit overall. I also increase my portfolio size. Motivation Level : 8/10 7) Consistency at Last Two years later, and I have traded several earnings cycles, done literally hundreds of my own trades, and I rarely take the official SO trades. Fills are not a problem, as I’m normally in the trade already, and I’m also trading stocks which are not on the SO list. Profits are decent, but I get some big losses, and the occasional losing month. I don’t like those, so I ramp-up the commitment. I decide to REALLY focus on this from 01-Jan-20. And then a dark-cloud-with-a-silver-lining comes along – COVID lockdowns. They suit me just fine: 7-8 hours a day – just me, the PC screen, charts, Excel sheets, Word documents detailing my ups/downs, cups of Earl Grey tea…..trade after trade. Total immersion. I love it. The wife has become a trading-widow. The cat is happy to be around me, cos I am no longer shouting. My profits rise to new levels, the March crash comes and goes without a dent to the bottom line. As we head towards the end of the year, I can finally say to myself that I have matured into a proficient SO trader – my risk management has improved enormously, my position sizing is as it should be, and my ability to distinguish between good/not-so-good trades has improved. I still screw up, but I keep a list of the mistakes I’ve made each month, and it’s satisfying to watch that list become smaller as the months roll on. I have finally found consistency – I’ve made a profit every single month this year. And my SO portfolio is far more profitable than my other ones. But the learning never stops – every week I read some post on the forum and think “Oh, wow, I didn’t think of that.” I’m no longer a SO member for the trades, but for the ideas and the discussions on the forum. They are gold. And I’ve learnt skills that I’ve been lacking for a long time – patience (no more “FOMO”), discipline (sticking to the rules, no doubling-down etc), no emotional trading (no revenge trades, not getting upset when a trade loses etc) The next stages are to get to grips with different trade types, like ratios. Motivation Level : 10/10 I’ve written this not with the view of “Hey, look at me”, but in the spirit of “If a dunce like me can become a competent trader, then anyone can”. If you’re a frustrated newbie, then rest assured that many of us have been there, many others are still in that place, but with determination and dedication, it’s possible to come out of the pain barrier, and see the sunshine on the other side. Happy trading.
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7 pointsMember of the month award for March goes to @TraderSL for his continuous contribution of trading ideas and analysis.
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5 pointsMy 2 cents worth. I've just been a tradesman all my life, not a professional. But I didn't really become the "go to guy" until I had almost 20 years working on the different kind of machines and control systems that went with them that I worked on, ultimately I ended up with 40 years in that field. I can't count the number of military and corporate "schools and/or classes" I've been to in that time. In periods between contracts I would trade, off and on, for about 20 years. I didn't make very much if any money, but I found it fascinating so I kept playing with it. But I didn't start consistently making profits trading until I finally sold my business and found myself with nothing to do, so I put full effort and full time into learning to trade and that was after 20 years of putzing around with it. Some mentoring classes and over 4 years now on SO and I still make expensive mistakes. It is easy to say "I'm smarter than the average guy so I should be able to do it a lot faster than that", but does that mean you could learn it in 5 years or 3 years or what. Don't quit your day job until you either A: already have your retirement and won't be risking that or B: you have been doing this long enough to be making a consistent profit. I think the stress of HAVING to make a profit from trading is the big filter for traders, when you aren't making any money or worse yet, losing money and you can't pay the rent, the psychology is going to make it that much harder to be successful at trading.
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4 pointsI just checked and all emails are sent properly. We had this issue in the past when gmail was delaying our emails. Then all of them came at once after few hours. Looks like it's happening again, my last email from SO was at 10:37 and I'm using gmail as well. So far reports are only from members who use gmail, so it must be the same issue. Meanwhile, I can recommend checking New content or All activity on the forum. it refreshes automatically.
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4 pointsMember of the month award for April goes to @Vkleniko for his continuous contribution of trading ideas and analysis.
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3 pointsIV has value but RV encompasses both and so is often more useful - nevertheless you cant completely ignore it because if its low (historically) and some event might make it move you could get more oomph out of your IV than otherwise. People vary in the importance they attach to it - I find it still relevant but check RV to mitigate being too optimistic. The stratospheric rise of IV before earnings is after all partially an outcome of the fact that IV is a basket to catch what the mathematical models cannot (earnings). @Christof+ always points this out and he is right. With RV over average and decline strong I find it less compelling - the second point about the outsized return however doesnt concern me so much. Its more important to see how many losers there are and how big they were. If they are low and we could be in line for a 75% one every 10 times we do this then it could be well worth it.
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