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10 pointsMember of the month award for August goes to @Chuck451 and @TraderSL for their continuous contribution of trading ideas and analysis.
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8 pointsAs has become my end of year tradition, I’ve broken down the Steady Options 2024 trade performance by trade type. Numbers were taken directly from the data in the Performance screen (plus some recently closed trades). Here’s are this year’s stats along with some comments from my perspective. Where applicable, I added totals from prior years for comparison. 2024 was a year where market volatility was calm with VIX under 20 for the first half of the year. The second half of the year turned more volatile with several VIX spikes into the 20’s and beyond, along with a general run-up into the election and a decline afterwards. So, we had both calm periods and more volatile periods. Pre-Earnings Calendars 54 Trades – 43 win, 10 loss,1 break-even (81% win) – Average Gain +12.13% 2023: 65 trades (85% win) – Average Gain +9.56% 2022: 11 trades (64% win) – Average Loss -9.55% 2021: 110 trades (79% win) – Average Gain +12.82% 2020: 33 trades (85% win) – Average Gain +21.97% 2019: 54 trades (65% win) – Average Gain +9.27% 2018: 40 trades (78% win) – Average Gain +9.61% 2017: 31 trades (84% win) – Average Gain +13.81% 2016: 44 trades (80% win) - Average Gain +15.07% 2015: 51 trades (80% win) – Average Gain +12.67% 2014: 48 trades (71% win) – Average Gain +13.80% 2013: 24 trades (88% win) – Average Gain +20.60% Comments: We were able to a good number of calendar trades this year, the majority of which occurred during the calmer period of the year when VIX was lower. Very good overall winning percentage and average gain per trade. We avoided big losses that can sometimes happen when stock prices make very large moves. Earnings calendars continue to be a core SO strategy. Straddles/Strangles 57 Trades - 41 win, 15 loss, 1 break-even (73% win) – Average Gain +4.72% Breaking down further by hedged and non-hedged: Non-Hedged – 38 win, 14 loss, 1 break-even (73% win), average gain +5.18% Hedged – 3 win, 1 loss (75% win), average gain +0.95% 2023: 166 trades (64% win) – Average Gain +1.65% 2022: 148 trades (71% win) – Average Gain +4.89% 2021: 129 trades (68% win) – Average Gain +3.27% 2020: 118 trades (67% win) – Average Gain +2.80% 2019: 106 trades (68% win) – Average Gain +3.58% 2018: 72 trades (83% win) – Average Gain +5.40% 2017: 77 trades (79% win) – Average Gain +5.02% 2016: 18 trades (72% win) – Average Gain +5.19% 2015: 44 trades (68% win) – Average Gain +2.61% 2014: 74 trades (62% win) – Average Gain +2.54% 2013: 104 trades (57% win) – Average Gain +1.35% Comments: Lower number of straddle/strangle trades compared to prior years, due primarily to introduction of double diagonal (DD) trades which will be discussed later. Overall winning percentage and average gain per trade were at the upper end of the range based on prior year performance. From a downside risk perspective, only 2 losses above 10%, with one larger loss on a hedged straddle that saw an RV drop orders of magnitude higher than prior cycles. 37% of trades hit 10% gain target, which is at the upper end of the range compared to prior years. Very low risk trades as it takes RV dropping much more than their prior cycle tendencies to be significant losers Double Diagonals DD trades were introduced this year with the goal of having performance similar to straddles/strangles – but have the ability for the trades to be open for much longer periods of time (up to 3 weeks prior to earnings) giving the stock more time to move but still have minimal downside risk. 52 Trades - 38 win, 14 loss (73% win) – Average Gain +4.86% Comments: High winning percentage, with roughly 3 of 4 trades being winners. All losing trades were under 10% losses, majority of losses were under 5%. So this is a very low risk trade type with minimal downside risk Average gain was at the upper end of the range compared with straddle/strangle results of prior years – so the goal of performance being similar to straddles/strangles was achieved. 35% of trades hit 10% gain target, which is at the upper end of the range compared to straddle/strangle trades in prior years. Other Trades Non-Earnings RICs: 4 win, 1 loss (80% win) – Average Gain +3.52%%. These non-earnings trades have higher downside risk if stock price doesn’t move. In this case the 1 loss needed 2 wins to compensate. Hedged ratios and BWBs: 4 win, 7 loss (36% win) – Average Loss -10.55%. These were hedged directional trades, a few oversized losses hurt the average. S&P500 addition date trade: 3 win, 1 loss (75% win) – Average Gain +3.28%. These trades play for stock price decline (or at least staying flat) after the S&P500 addition. The one loser hurt the average as all 3 gains were 10%+. We will likely do trades like things with future S&P500 stock additions. Other: A few successful index Iron Condors and the closure of one long-term UNG ratio diagonal for an oversized loss. Net result of these trades was basically break-even from a percentage gain/loss perspective. Summary 2024 Steady Options model portfolio was up around +118% for the year. This result was right around the average yearly return since SO’s inception. It’s good to be able to say that trades based on SO techniques had such a high return as “average”. As always, I’d like to highlight and thank the SO community. We continue to have a group of very smart people that seems to grow each year who share their ideas and knowledge – this is what makes SO great. Looking forward to 2025. 2023 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2022 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2021 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2020 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2019 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2018 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2017 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2016 Year End Performance by Trade Type 2015 Year End Performance by Trade Type
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5 pointsMy 2 cents worth. I've just been a tradesman all my life, not a professional. But I didn't really become the "go to guy" until I had almost 20 years working on the different kind of machines and control systems that went with them that I worked on, ultimately I ended up with 40 years in that field. I can't count the number of military and corporate "schools and/or classes" I've been to in that time. In periods between contracts I would trade, off and on, for about 20 years. I didn't make very much if any money, but I found it fascinating so I kept playing with it. But I didn't start consistently making profits trading until I finally sold my business and found myself with nothing to do, so I put full effort and full time into learning to trade and that was after 20 years of putzing around with it. Some mentoring classes and over 4 years now on SO and I still make expensive mistakes. It is easy to say "I'm smarter than the average guy so I should be able to do it a lot faster than that", but does that mean you could learn it in 5 years or 3 years or what. Don't quit your day job until you either A: already have your retirement and won't be risking that or B: you have been doing this long enough to be making a consistent profit. I think the stress of HAVING to make a profit from trading is the big filter for traders, when you aren't making any money or worse yet, losing money and you can't pay the rent, the psychology is going to make it that much harder to be successful at trading.
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4 pointsthink my response would have been, "i know a guaranteed way to have an account balance of 1.25 million your first year of trading.. start with 2.5 million and quit when you reach 1.25. many have done it, so can you." HA!
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4 pointsIf I had to select one thing that causes most traders to fail, it would be wrong expectations. I know I sound like a broken record, but consider this: when someone wants to become and engineer or an accountant, do they expect to achieve this in a few months? No, they fully expect spending at least 4 years and tends of thousands of dollars in University (not to mention becoming a doctor or a lawyer). And yet, many people read all the hype and expect becoming experts after a few months. When I just started SO, I got an email from one of my Seeking Alpha readers. He told me that he is a big fan of my articles and asked how he can learn more. He wanted to make it his new career. He asked me if I can recommend any books or internet sites to learn/practice the options strategies. Then he said that he is new to trading options, he set aside a small amount of money in hopes of doubling it at least yearly. Don't you find it amazing? The guy admits he is new to options, but wants to double the account "at least yearly". My reply was: "There is a lot of hype surrounding options trading. Some "gurus" out there will make you to believe that doubling your account every 6-12 months is an easy task. If it was, we all would be millionaires by now. My advice to you: if you just start options trading, preserving your capital during your first year of trading would be a great achievement" I didn't hear from him since then. He probably went to one of those charlatans who promise to double your account in one month and charge you few thousand dollars for a week of “one on one consulting”. Many people will tell you what you want to hear to get your hard earned money. Here is another email from one of our former members: "I'm new to options trading. I'm retired and am hoping to make $1.25 million per year by trading" This member cancelled after just 2 weeks. Why I'm not surprised? And honestly, I would be very interested to know the psychology behind people thinking they can have no experience with something, probably not even know how to place an order, and start making money with options right away. A 7 figure income in this case. But maybe it's the same psychology that makes people to believe that they can lose 50 pounds in 2 months without any effort..
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3 pointsIn addition to @InvestTrader, something else that dovetails into position size. Don't "day trade" your positions, and if you are, then ask the nice nurse for another shot and go back to your computer. Seriously, what I mean is, if I have a position open that is getting beat up, I try not to focus on the chart constantly, watching it's every move, this very often leads to me closing or altering the position, in other words, over trading. Sure, there are times I must focus on as specific trade/ticker, but I don't have the temperament to watch the screen, filled with angst like a day trader, finger hovering over the send button. And yet, I still often do it, so I have to constantly control that tendency. I think that one thing has cost me more money than any other.
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3 points
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