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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/11/18 in all areas

  1. YES -- tomorrow. My mistake. The 3 days would be Monday Tuesday Wednesday (the day of earnings). Close the trade on Tuesday which is one day before earnings. If this is referring to ASML reporting BO on Wed 17th, then - (correct me if I am wrong, I'm not from the US) - isn't Mon 15th a Martin Luther holiday, and thus the markets are closed? This means three business days before Wed would actually be today.
    2 points
  2. I came across an excellent article by Colibri Trader. Here are some gems from the article. The question of what it takes to become a master in any field (sport or business) has been in the epicentre of research for many years. It has occupied psychologists and philosophers alike for decades. Is it the innate talent what matters or a skill can be mastered with practice. What does it take for professional athletes to become first among others with inborn talents… Almost fifty years ago Herbert Simon and William Chase summed up a groundbreaking conclusion that is still echoing with importance: After Simon and Chase there have been numerous psychologists and authors testing this hypothesis and proving and disproving the rule of “The 10, 000 Hours“. For example, John Hayes researched the works of over 70 of the most famous classical composers and found that almost none of them did create a masterpiece before they have been composing for a minimum of 10, 000 hours. There were just a few exceptions and they were Shostakovich and Paganini, who took them only 9, 000 hours. In trading, it seems to be the same or at least really similar. I don’t know a lot of other traders, whom after an honest conversation have not shared with me that have spent years of losing money consistently before becoming profitable. In my trading career I remember just one trader who told me that was successful straight from the very beginning. He was sharing with me that it only took him 3 months on a simulator and with the help of his trading mentor, he became successful. He is an exception because in his case- he managed to save a lot of costly mistakes by following his mentor’s trading approach. But most traders are doing it alone and that is why it takes them such a long time. Trading, as any other highly competitive sport discipline, takes a lot of hours in front of the screens and practice. In a book that I recently read (Focus: The Hidden Driver of Excellence), Daniel Goleman reveals the complex truth behind the popular 10,000 rule: The words of Ericsson cannot be more true regarding the trading field. Professional traders know that going out of the comfort zone is what makes a difference in the long-run. Imagine you are doing the same trading mistake over and over again. The only way to get rid of your bad habits is to get out of your “comfort zone” and do something differently. Even if you are not sure where your mistake is, you should put all of your efforts into trying to find it. Only then and after long hours of practice, you would be able to become profitable. What matters in this case is not only the time invested in trading, but the quality of the time. It appears that even if you stay 20,000 hours in front of your screens, it won’t make a difference if you are doing the same mistakes repeatedly. It seems obvious and simple, but modern education is build on the premise of sheer time investment. That is why it is important to emphasize on the fact that success is “deliberate practice”, concentrated training with the sole aim of personal improvement, many times accompanied or guided by a professional and skilled coach or mentor.That is how I became successful myself- I have been mentored by one of the biggest and most successful traders in London. Before I had the chance to meet this important person to me, I was making too many mistakes- 80% of which I was not even aware of! That is such a striking number when I look back at it now. According to Goleman, what I have found also applies to other disciplines: That is completely in-line with trading field. You need an objective feedback from somebody, who can monitor your performance. Human beings tend to be subjective when it comes to measuring their own performance. That is why, it is crucial that you have a profitable trader helping you along the 10, 000-hours of trading journey. It is imperative that you are coached by a real professional or at least somebody with years of trading behind his back. No wonder that every world-class sports champion has a coach. If you keep on trading without a feedback from a proven profitable trader, you won’t be able to get to the very top. In the end, it seems that the trading strategy that you are using is not the most important element of becoming a master trader. It is the feedback that you receive from really experienced traders and the quality of the time invested in improving you own mistakes. Now stop thinking how good you are- start seeing how you can improve through concentrated trading effort. Some quick tips and facts My good friend Kirk Du Plessis from OptionAlpha lists few things to consider as you write down your expectations and goals. More traders lose more money than they make. The figures are a little off depending on who you talk to, but it is 80% to 90% (maybe more) who end up losers and leave the business altogether. Only a small percentage of retail traders are profitable. The numbers get even smaller if you look at a 3-5 year average which measures consistency. Don’t get discouraged, we all fell off the bike before we learned to ride it right? Paper trade first with a small amount of money. I always recommend members to paper trade everything first. This applies not only to new traders. Even if you have some experience with options, it always takes some time to get used to new strategies. This way you learn how to enter orders, adjust trades, and more importantly learn you’re your mistakes without losing real money. Then when you are ready to invest real money, keep it small. Prove yourself that you can make money with 10k, then increase it to 20k and so on, but do it gradually. You will have losing trades. Too many people quitting after a streak of 4-5 losing trades. Losing money is part of the game, the trick is to keep the losses as small as possible. Don’t expect to become financially independent. Don’t you think it’s completely unrealistic to expect a small account, say under $5,000, to generate consistent income to replace your regular job? I aim for many singles instead of few home runs. Those are all great quotes. I suggest remembering them when you get frustrated and overwhelmed by the amount of information and learning curve required to become a successful trader. Related Articles: Why Retail Investors Lose Money In The Stock Market Can you double your account every six months? How to Calculate ROI in Options Trading Performance Reporting: The Myths and The Reality Are You EMOTIONALLY Ready To Lose?
    2 points
  3. I've been pretty bad at updating trades lately. Here's my most recent CML-based trades (I've developed a shorthand for the trading parameters, which I'm copying from my spreadsheet: [Symbol TradeType OptionExpiration Deltas Timing Stops/Limits] using these abbreviations: ^ = delta, x/xx = days open/closed before or after earnings{its obvious which it is}, SL/LG = stop loss/limit gain). IC means Iron Condor where I'm short higher deltas and long lower deltas ADBE +17.5% (IC 14DTE 40/15^ 1/14, SL/LG40%) FDX -91.8% (IC 21DTE 35/15^ 2/21) - not the SO trade; missed closing for a 40% gain by about 0.05, so that kinda sucked STZ -20.3% (Call ~7DTE 40^ 3/1, SL/LG 40%) NVDA +50.9% (TTM_Squeeze) - nearly stopped out for -50% before a big turnaround INFY +37.2% (Call ~7DTE 40^ 4/1, SL/LG 40%) - closed at 40% pre-commissions Also, I'm planning to open: ASML (Call Mthly 40^ 3/1, SL/LG 40%) NFLX (Call 0-7DTE 40^ 7/1, SL/LG 50%) TXN (Call 7DTE 40^ 7/1, SL/LG 40%) STT (Call 7DTE 40^ 3/1, SL/LG 40%) SEIC ( Call 7DTE 50^ 7/1, SL/LG 40%) - waiting for earnings date announcement And may consider (if premiums would result in a 30%+ return when held to expiration, which likely won't happen with JPM): JPM (ShortPS 30DTE 40/15^ 2/29, SL50%) WFC (ShortPS 37DTE 50/20^ 2/32) - will use Feb monthlies if I open it Overall, I've now made 103 CML-based trades with an average gain of 7.2% and average holding period of 14 days. The post-earnings ICs have been big losers on average (7 trades / -41.8% avg) and the post-earnings Short PS's are now the most consistent (35 trades / +10.2% avg)
    2 points
  4. So, I'm not paying for ONE right now (and don't plan on it in the short-term), but I'll let you know about Tradehawk. In order to keep things simple with the transfer, I'm planning to phase over cash, but I'm significantly deployed right now so I'm holding off. It could take up to a week, so I might have to wait for a slow period (or lower the % I'm transferring). I was targeting 50%, but maybe 33% is more realistic (and would leave me with a better chance to seize opportunities during the transfer period)
    1 point
  5. Wow...I 'm embarrassed to admit this but, I was so busy , with my main positions, that I didn't even see this until you brought it to my attention. I will sell a few, but, I don't see any reason to liquidate the whole thing , as it is pretty much in an uptrend. I also like the behavior following earnings. I felt that if it held $2.00, then that would be a sort of floor. The market told you what it thought, so just follow what the market is telling you. But, after any spike, you have to lock in some gains. So, sell a small portion, and hang on. Also, there is that time factor.. There is SO much time, and now they are almost .30 cents in the money. Which means there is only .10- .15 cents of time value on a 3 month option.
    1 point
  6. I don't know them personally, so cannot comment on this. My comments were strictly regarding their track record (or lack of it) and UOA. As a general comment, the fact that someone was market maker or floor trader doesn't necessarily make him a good options trader. Those are completely different skills.
    1 point
  7. You see if you are filled, change the limit price, or cancel the order via the Tradier web interface. To roll, adjust the trade, or enter a closing order, I use ONE to send the order to Tradier, but then have to modify the side appropriately, as all of the orders come in as "to open". If you are closing any/all legs, you need to modify the leg(s) in the Tradier web interface after you sent the order to it from ONE.
    1 point
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