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Higher implied volatility for less time to maturity if strike price is low?

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Hello Forum,

I'm new so please pardon me for not choosing the right sub. I do have data from options with different Strike prices, times to maturity & IV. I thought that a longer time to maturity ceteris paribus always results in a higher IV. However, I fount in the data that if the strike is significantly lower than the underlying, then the IV is higher for shorter times to maturity. Can someone explain to me why that is the case?

 

Thank you very much! 

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    • By Pat Crawley
      What is IV Crush?
      I liken IV crush to a concert venue two hours after the headliner finishes their set. If it’s not closed, very few people are still in the building. In the hours leading to the concert, more and more people entered the venue at an increasing rate. There’s a decent showing for the openers, more viewers for the co-headliner, and then everyone who has a ticket is in the building by the time the headliner gets on stage.
       
      But as soon as the show ends, the building empties out.
       
      The same thing in option prices in the lead-up to the announcement of an earnings report or other significant catalyst. Traders pay for a ticket (an option) to watch the concert (earnings report). Once the company’s done reporting, they pack up and go home (option prices go back to normal).
       
      Oftentimes, even if a stock misses earnings expectations and the stock declines, IV crush will still occur, which makes little sense. However, you have to understand that uncertainty about the report is one of the primary reasons that IV gets elevated prior to a report, so even a bad report that leads to a price decline still gives investors piece of mind that they know where the company stands.
       
      Implied Volatility
      Let’s just get clear on what implied volatility is. IV is the market’s estimation of future volatility determined by market prices. Essentially, using the price of an option, you can reverse engineer what the market is forecasting the expected move to be.
       
      When implied volatility is high that means option traders are paying up for options in the expectation of a large move, like an earnings beat or miss.
       
      A Hypothetical Trade to Demonstrate IV Crush
      Imagine we’re trading Netflix (NFLX) earnings. Perhaps they just released their biggest hit show in history, by a long shot. Many analysts and traders alike are betting that Netflix will show huge subscriber growth this quarter. Many of them are buying call options to potentially profit from Netflix stock rising on the good news.
       
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      Through a less-simplified-version of this process is how the implied volatility of options gets so high prior to an earnings report. Everyone knows stocks make big moves after earnings and there’s no free lunch in financial markets so of course market prices reflect this reality.
       
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      (Most traded options are American options. The underlying can be bought or sold anytime . However 'European' options, which can only be exercised on contract expiration, exist too ).
       
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      Option Strike (Exercise) Price Definition
      The strike (or exercise) price of an call option is the fixed price at which a holder can purchase the underlying stock or financial instrument sometime in the future. Likewise, the strike price of a put is the price at which a stock/instrument can be sold.
       
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      Consider selling strategies when options are being traded at high implied volatility levels.
      Consider buying strategies when options are being traded at low implied volatility levels.
       
      The following infographic explains some of the aspects of the Implied Volatility:
       
      1. What is Implied Volatility?
      2. 2 types of volatility.
      3. How options are affected by Implied Volatility?
       
      And more.
       

       
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      Implied volatility increases when the market is bearish. On the other hand, it decreases when the market is bullish.
       
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      Implied volatility is an estimate based on current levels of price and  moneyness, but these matters change every day.

      Timing of option trades is likely to be improved by relying more on price-related and momentum signals, and not aimed at the effort to estimate future volatility. Today’s volatility tells traders what they need to know to time their decisions profitably. Consideration such as moneyness and proximity matter. When the current price per share is close to the option strike, timing is likely to be improved, whether entering or exiting. Another form of proximity is related to price in comparison to resistance or support. Most reversal signals are most reliable when they occur right at these trading range borders. If price gaps through resistance or support, and reversal signals appear, this is exceptionally strong timing for options trades.

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      Support for relying on IV comes largely from academia, where IV is tied directly to the efficient market. However, this also is flawed. The efficient market hypothesis (EMH) states correctly that prices efficiently take news into the price immediately. However, no distinction is made between true news and rumor, so false information has the same effect on price as true information. This efficiency also fails to identify how far a stock price should move. Anyone who has observed market reaction to earnings surprises sees a big price move, often exaggerated. In comes sessions, the price retraces to previous level.

      This is not efficient.

      That’s the entire point. EMH is poorly named because it implies that markets are efficient, when in fact only discounting of all information (true and false) is efficient. When options traders rely on IV and point to “efficiency” as justification, they are relying on a signal containing no true value.

      Proponents of IV claim that (s) the market is efficient, and this is reflected in IV and (b) this fact allows traders to accurately predict the future.

      However, the efficiency of price behavior based on information often gives off a false signal, so that IV itself reflects the inefficient interpretation of price. Traders know that short-term price behavior is inefficient and chaotic, so that IV – as a direct factor of this assumption – is not reliable for timing trades.

      A related problem is the significant variance in IV based on moneyness of different strikes and time to expiration. Informed short traders know that time is an ally, and time decay is a primary source for profits. However, this is easily based on historical volatility rather than on the less reliable implied volatility. A debate about which form affects option premium is unsettled; but traders will discover that relying on historical volatility provides reliable timing information to exploit volatility.

      The problems with IV are evident in the wide variances of levels based on moneyness and time to expiration. This tendency to vary is called the volatility surface, and it relies on current option premium levels as the source for future movement; in truth, those premium levels are not the source, but the result of historical volatility and moneyness. A detailed study of stock and option prices concluded that there is no consistent evidence that IV determines or affects future option value. [1]

      IV is not accurate or reliable, despite common belief that it is both. Another study pointed out that IV is not a valuable indicator at all:

      In theory, the implied volatility is the market’s well-informed prediction of future volatility. In practice, however, the arbitrage trading that is supposed to force option prices into conformance with the market’s volatility expectations may be very hard to execute. It will also be less profitable and entail more risk than simple market making that maximizes order flow and earns profits from the bid-ask spread. [2]
       
      Although there are five factors going into the Black Scholes pricing model (BSM), only volatility is unknown and must be estimated; and this is where inaccuracy comes into play, making the pricing model deeply flawed.

      The intent of IV is to identify current volatility and predict future volatility, but it cannot predict the future. Volatility itself (defined as “risk”) cannot be quantified for the future in any case, so any assumption by traders that IV is a reliable test of future price movement, is simply untrue. This is easily demonstrated by another factor: Volatility reveals the likely movement of an option’s premium, but not the direction. Options traders are naturally interested in figuring out where the price will move, but volatility articulates the range of price movement and not the direction.
       
      A final flaw is that as expiration approaches, volatility will become as uncertain as price of the underlying. This “volatility collapse” makes IV unreliable in the final week before expiration. But this is the week where many traders focus. If a trader is active in the final week of the option’s term, but also relies on IV, there is no certainty whatsoever of profitable outcome. A simple observation of moneyness and proximity to resistance or support makes more sense.

      The use of IV can be compared to reliance on forward P/E. This is an estimate of future P/E but contains assumptions, often based on wishful thinking or flawed assumptions. It may also be compared to the accounting reliance on pro forma financial statements, estimates of future revenue, costs and net profit. This may be based on detailed forecasting that sounds scientific but, in fact, cannot be called accurate. If traders know that estimates of future P/E or net profits are unreliable, why depend on IV to estimate future volatility of options?
        [1] Bouchard, Jean-Philippe & Marc Potters (2009). Theory of Financial Risk and Derivative Pricing: From Statistical Physics to Risk Management (2nd ed.). Cambridge UK: Cambridge University Press. p. 252
       
      [2] Figlewski, Stephen. (2004). Forecasting Volatility, New York University Stern School of Business, Preface

      Michael C. Thomsett is a widely published author with over 80 business and investing books, including the best-selling Getting Started in Options, coming out in its 10th edition later this year. He also wrote the recently released The Mathematics of Options. Thomsett is a frequent speaker at trade shows and blogs on his website at Thomsett Guide as well as on Seeking Alpha, LinkedIn, Twitter and Facebook.    
       
    • By Nathan Wade
      As public fear escalates, demand for protection against downward shifts in the stock market increases with it. This boosts the premiums for options that can be used to hedge against downward shifts in stock prices.

      While some investors invest in either stocks or options, many investors use options to hedge their stock portfolios. They look for overvalued options, so that they may sell options when the premiums of those options are expensive. The best way to determine if an option premium is overvalued is to analyze implied volatility.

      What is Implied Volatility?
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      To determine the likelihood that an option will be in the money before the expiration date, you need to figure out how quickly it will move in the right direction. But how do you do that?

      Option traders, like Warren Buffett, turn to implied volatility. Implied volatility is a measure of how much market participants believe the price of a security will move over a specific period on an annualized basis. It’s typically represented as a percentage.

      An implied volatility of 20% means that traders estimate a security will move up or down 20% from its current position over the next 12 months. To determine the premium, or price, of an option, you could use an option pricing model. The most famous is the Black Scholes option pricing model. There are several inputs, but the most crucial is implied volatility.

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      You can chart implied volatility on several instruments including the VIX volatility index.  Additionally, you can use technical analysis tools such as Bollinger bands and the RSI to help you decide of the value of implied volatility is rich or cheap.

      The VIX volatility index, which is calculated by the Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE), lists the implied volatility of the “at the money” calls and puts on the S&P 500 index. The VIX reports how far traders believe the S&P 500 will move over the course of the next year.

      The CBOE produces many different VIX indexes. There is a VIX on Apple shares and a VIX on crude oil. By charting the VIX, you’ll be able to determine whether implied volatility is rich or cheap.


       
      How Do You Know When Implied Volatility is Rich?
      When implied volatility is high, or “rich,” option prices are overvalued. This attract investors like Buffett. This is when you want to sell options.

      You can determine how rich volatility is by using technical analysis tools like Bollinger bands or the Relative Strength index. When the value of the VIX moves up to unsustainable levels, you’ve reached a trigger point. This is where you should look to sell options.

      Bollinger bands are a technical analysis tool that measure a 2-standard deviation range around a moving average.

      The chart of the VIX shows that the VIX shot above the Bollinger band high in early October, which was calculated using a 200-day moving average. This also happened in March and February of 2018. When the VIX crosses above the Bollinger band’s high, it’s likely to revert back to the mean. But before it returns, you can attempt to sell an option. You can use several different moving averages to determine if the value of the VIX volatility index is high. It all depends on your time horizon.

      A second technical analysis gauge you can use to determine if implied volatility is rich is the relative strength index (RSI). This is a momentum oscillator that measures accelerating and decelerating momentum along with overbought and oversold levels. When the RSI moves above 70, the value of the security is overbought and will likely correct itself. In early October the VIX hit an RSI reading of 84, well above the overbought trigger level of 70—meaning the volatility was rich.

      There are other tools that you can use to measure implied volatility. There are vendors that provide historical charts of implied volatility on  individual stocks. You can use the same type of technical analysis tools to determine whether the implied volatility on these shares are rich or cheap.
       
      When Should I Check Implied Volatility?
      You can use implied volatility as a confirmation indicator or a trigger. The process goes as follows:

      Once you find a stock that you believe is undervalued, you might consider selling a naked put below the current stock price.

      You would then check the stock to see if current implied volatility is elevated and use that to determine whether or not selling an option on that stock is worthwhile. Alternatively, you can use implied volatility as a trigger. In this case, you could scan for implied volatility levels on stock prices where the Bollinger band’s high has been breached or the RSI is above the 70 overbought trigger level.

      You can then find a level that would make selling a naked put or a covered call attractive.

      A Final Message
      The best options strategies are income producing option trading strategies. These include popular trading strategies, such as covered call and naked put trading. It does not matter if you are selling a naked put or employing a covered call strategy, you want to sell options when premiums are overvalued.  
    • By jhollett
      Where is the best place to find a list of low IV stocks such as NKE that will have really strong Gamma gains on moves.  I've had success trading straddles on NKE before joining the group and is it a matter of looking through a bunch of stuff or is there a site that will help aid in that search?
      Thanks
    • By Kim
      The problem is you are not the only one knowing that earnings are coming. Everyone knows that some stocks move a lot after earnings, and everyone bids those options. Following the laws of supply and demand, those options become very expensive before earnings. The IV (Implied Volatility) jumps to the roof. The next day the IV crashes to the normal levels and the options trade much cheaper.
       
      Over time the options tend to overprice the potential move. Those options experience huge volatility drop the day after the earnings are announced. In many cases, this drop erases most of the gains, even if the stock had a substantial move. In order to profit from the trade when you hold through earnings, you need the stock not only to move, but to move more than the options "predicted". If they don't, the IV collapse will cause significant losses.
       
      However, there are always exceptions. Stocks like NFLX, AMZN, GOOG tend on average to move more than the options imply before earnings. It doesn't happen every cycle. Few cycles ago NFLX options implied 13% move while the stock moved "only" 8%. A straddle held through earnings would lose 32%. A strangle would lose even more. But on average, NFLX options move more than expected most of the time, unlike most other stocks.
       
      NFLX reported earnings on Monday October 17. The options prices as indicated by a weekly straddle "predicted" ~$10 (or 10%) move. The $100 calls were trading at $5 and the puts are trading at $5. This tells us that the market makers are expecting a 10% range in the stock post earnings. In reality, the stock moved $19. Whoever bought the straddle could book a solid 90% gain.
       
      Implied Volatility collapsed from 130% to 36%. Many options "gurus" advocate selling options on high flying stocks like NFLX or AMZN, based "high IV percentile" and predicted volatility collapse. However, looking at history of NFLX post-earnings moves, this doesn't seem like a smart move.
       

       
      As you can see from the table (courtesy of optionslam.com), NFLX moved more than expected in 7 out of 10 last cycles. For this particular stock, options sellers definitely don't have an edge, despite volatility collapse. If the stock moves more than "expected", volatility collapse is not enough to make options sellers profitable.
       
      Generally speaking, I'm not against selling options before earnings - on the contrary. For many stocks, options consistently overestimate the expected move, and for those stocks, this strategy might have an edge (assuming proper position sizing). But NFLX is one of the worst stocks to use for this strategy, considering its earnings history.
       
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    • By Kim
      This cycle was no exception. 

      It is a well known fact that Implied Volatility of options increases before earnings. We usually take advantage of this phenomenon by buying a straddle option few days before the earnings date.

      However, Oracle case was slightly different. As I mentioned, they follow a similar pattern of earnings dates in the last few years (third week of the month), but for some reason, the options market tends to be "surprised" after the earnings date is actually confirmed.

      On February 27 I opened ORCL trade discussion topic and posted the following information:



      My initial intention was to trade the Mar.24 straddle, which would be a safer bet.

      However, after checking again the previous cycles and seeing the Mar.17 straddle dipping below $1.45, I decided to take the risk and execute the Mar.17 straddle. The trade has been posted on the forum on Mar.01:



      I posted the rationale for selecting the Mar.17 expiration, with all supporting information, including the risks:



      Two days later, Oracle confirmed earnings on Mar.15, as expected.



      IV of Mar.17 options jumped 4 points after the date has been confirmed, and we closed the trade for 20.1% gain.



      This is a great example how we make Implied Volatility to work for us. We implement few strategies that take advantage of Implied Volatility changes around the earnings event.

      Of course, this trade was not without risks. If earnings were confirmed on week of Mar.24, the Mar.17 straddle could easily lose ~40%. But options trading is a game of probabilities. Based on previous cycles, I estimated that there was ~90% chance that earnings will be on week of Mar.17. Making 20% 9 out of 10 times and losing 40% in one trade still puts you far ahead, with 140% cumulative gain. I also provided members all the necessary information so everyone could make an educated decision.

      At SteadyOptions, the learning never stops. If you think education is expensive, try ignorance.
       
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