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CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

NikTam

By NikTam
in General Board

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zxcv64
zxcv64

Having completed a 100 CML trades, I thought I would summarise my results.    Summary : 100 trades, 66 winners, overall profit of 12.1% PER TRADE.   Here is a detailed breakdown, w

greenspan76
greenspan76

This topic was a little more active a while back and I had intended to give an update on my results at the 1 year mark, but I've been busy with other projects the last few months. My first CML trade w

cuegis
cuegis

Here is an example of how I have used CML as an adjunct to the SO calendar trades, pre earnings. We know that those calendars , on their own, are very good trades, with a great success rate.

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Djtux Hero Member

Djtux

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, krisbee said:

yep, I know we entered early. But I didn't double check the option date. We should have entered Nov 10th instead of Nov 3. Sigh..... 

Yes in CML it was a 7 day expiry option but because they enter 7 days before, the expiry is the weekly after the earnings date.

Because we entered earlier, i selected the 7 day expiry from the entry date which gave the 11/03 instead of the correct 11/10.

Sorry for the confusion.

Djtux Hero Member

Djtux

Posted
Posted
On 10/27/2017 at 3:08 PM, Djtux said:

MAR I just reentered 120 calls 11/03 at 1.00. Got paid 0.12 commissions, strange to not pay commissions.

Closed at 0.80. Took the loss as we now know that it was probably the wrong expiry to play with. MAR was still profitable for me.

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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3 day P-E on LYV.  Nov 17 (no weeklys) Looking to get in for .80 for 44 call.  Good track record but not much volume/liquidity. Spread is ok.  Small bet on this one.

Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, IgorK said:

Thursday or Wednesday? Nov10 40 delta?

Pretty sure Thursday. Yes, Nov 10 40 delta. Trade must be closed by stop-loss or win%, or 1 day before earnings (11/8). 

Closed YUM for .45, 57% loss. Again, lucky it was even smaller than my normally very small trade size for this type of play.

 

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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I'm also liking EXC -- it is turning around on 30 min chart....filled at .65 on 55 delta as no 40 was available.  Nov 17 (no weeklies) 40 call.

 

 

Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted
27 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Exited BABA at 5.15 with a nice gain from 3.75.  Not quite 40% but I took anyway for a one day trade.

This one was very volatile today. I'm thinking about how to deal with that, considering the CML Back tests will only stop-loss out at EOD pricing.

Since I'm a strike higher due to a worse entry, I held until tomorrow. I guess we'll find out how that works out.

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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@SirionThe trade is still valid by CML standards so the odds are with you.  I do overlay my own charting indicators for an entry point.  Sometimes it helps.  As a rule I will get out end of day whenever I have a major gain.  I could do a trailing stop, but that’s no help if it gaps down.  The limitations of market hours are a problem.  

Maji Hero Member

Maji

Posted
Posted
44 minutes ago, Sirion said:

This one was very volatile today. I'm thinking about how to deal with that, considering the CML Back tests will only stop-loss out at EOD pricing.

This is a good tip for me to remember... do not get into too volatile stocks where the Option prices move around >40% a day. Not sure how I can determine that... maybe someone here has some suggestions.

Thank you Nik for starting this thread.

Maji Hero Member

Maji

Posted
Posted

Look at the charts of BIDU and BABA... moving down towards EA date... BIDU had a nasty downward gap... made the day for many long earnings straddle/strangle holders.

Thinking of a small allocation towards a BABA earnings strangle... not sure yet.

Maji Hero Member

Maji

Posted
Posted (edited)
47 minutes ago, NikTam said:

Also -- HD has been a monster good trade for earnings.  The 14 day P-E.  Which means entry is TOMORROW.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171031011430_w0puDRYgk3tzJQMn

Based on back-testing, I will not be setting OCO for profit or stop loss.  Though a stop loss of 50% doesn't appear to affect upside potential.

I am in the official SO HD earnings trade. Will have to use a very small position so that I don't overload on a single stock.

Today's pullback would have been a good time to enter the straight call. Also, if I am not using any stop loss, a small position is good for risk control. The Nov 17 has good OI.

Thank you for the heads up.

Edited by Maji
NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Posted (edited)

Entered half position on HD 14 day P-E long call at 2.10   Nov 17 167.50

 

Filled on QGEN at 1.00 for 3 day P-E

Filled on RBC at .95 for 3 day P-E

Edited by NikTam
krisbee Hero Member

krisbee

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, RapperT said:

What's everyone doing with MAR

MAR is from cmlviz alert blog. they say enter 7 days before 40 delta calls. and backtesting has good results. I entered last evening at 38delta calls of Nov 10, and holding it. So far 10% up.

  • Upvote 1
RapperT Hero Member

RapperT

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, krisbee said:

MAR is from cmlviz alert blog. they say enter 7 days before 40 delta calls. and backtesting has good results. I entered last evening at 38delta calls of Nov 10, and holding it. So far 10% up.

cool wasnt sure when the entry was.  These tests seem a little "curve fitty" lol but what the hell

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krisbee Hero Member

krisbee

Posted
Posted
Just now, RapperT said:

cool wasnt sure when the entry was.  These tests seem a little "curve fitty" lol but what the hell

i think they go with EOD price. I took advantage of yesterday's dip. 

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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I have 7 P-E positions open right now.  5 are profitable (MAR, HD, QGEN, RBC, LYV), 1 is flat (EXC), and 1 is a loser (ADP). 

 

I'm liking my PnL this week.

NikTam Hero Member

NikTam

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Exited ADP 3 day P-E for 30% loss.  Chart just keeps getting worse.  Would have lost less but I had my Stop Limit (-25%) set up too restrictively.  Lesson learned.  Stop should be set a bit above Limit.

IgorK Hero Member

IgorK

Posted
Posted
26 minutes ago, Sirion said:

Sold out of BABA at 40% gain. 

Still looking for a favorable entry to MAR, missed out on that one.

Haven't quite stoplossed out of ADP due to entering lower than @NikTam. 

ADP 118 call mid is 1.93 now.  Is it a good idea to try to enter a bit bellow this number? Actually to enter at all?

Sirion Hero Member

Sirion

Posted
Posted
Just now, IgorK said:

ADP 118 call mid is 1.93 now.  Is it a good idea to try to enter a bit bellow this number? Actually to enter at all?

Backtest was done with 3-days to entry and is designed to capitalize on upward momentum (the thesis of the trade is that some stocks tend to have rising prices, or optimism, into earnings consistently). We're not seeing that on ADP this cycle so far. 

The only reason I'm not exiting is that I've already paid commissions to enter. 

It may or may not go the other way for the last day of this trade, but based on the thesis - not really? 

This is a pretty new trade idea so it's not fully fleshed out. 

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SBatch Hero Member

SBatch

Posted
Posted (edited)

@NikTam Thanks again for starting this thread.  There seems to be significant interest which is cool.  I do have a suggestion.  Perhaps we can create a uniform post for each trade idea.  For example, it could include just the symbol, expiration, strike/Delta and future exit date along with the link to the CML backtest with just one trade idea for each post.  I think this will allow for members to follow the thread more easily.

Edited by SBatch
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