CML TradeMachine Trade Ideas

[RapperT]

thanks.  Sorry couldve read it, didnt realize it was posted

[NikTam]

I saw it posted but didn't read all of it.  :-\

[NikTam]

@IgorK  My -25% stop limit on YUM is .79

[Djtux]

20 minutes ago, Djtux said:

Yes the backtests are calendar days for CML.

MAR Got filled at 1.10.

Closed at 1.45

[NikTam]

@Djtux  Wow.  Nice. You could prob get back in for another turn.  Getting in early didn't hurt you!

Edited October 27, 2017 by NikTam

[krisbee]

22 minutes ago, Djtux said:

Yes the backtests are calendar days for CML.

 

Got filled at 1.10.

I entered 120 calls 38 delta. ( @Djtux u made 25+% already i think)

[IgorK]

46 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@IgorK  My -25% stop limit on YUM is .79

It's coming there

I wonder I fit is a good idea to buy 76 call now.

Edited October 27, 2017 by IgorK

[Djtux]

24 minutes ago, krisbee said:

I entered 120 calls 38 delta. ( @Djtux u made 25+% already i think)

I exited at 1.45 already.

[krisbee]

16 minutes ago, Djtux said:

I exited at 1.45 already.

I think we should scale out for the cml suggestions. it's 1.80ish now with 7 days to go.

[NikTam]

OCO took me out with 40% gain.  :-)

[NikTam]

I would definitely get into this one again on a dip.  The 3 and 5 day P-E look good.  I'm also seeing high probability with higher profitability on holding to 0 days before earnings - so exiting on the 7th.

[NikTam]

Since starting this program on Wednesday of this week,  BA, MSFT, INTC and MAR have all been 40% gainers for me.  TTWO is looking good. YUM is not.  

[Mary]

I have been watching SBUX - Starbucks for the past week. I am going to test the CML's suggestion (article in their Discover tab):

Earnings Release Date (ERD) Nov2 AMC

Long Saddle, 50 Delta/50 Delta ; Expiration 30 days, Enter 6 days before ERD and close 0 days before ERD.

 

[akito]

16 minutes ago, Mary said:

I have been watching SBUX - Starbucks for the past week. I am going to test the CML's suggestion (article in their Discover tab):

Earnings Release Date (ERD) Nov2 AMC

Long Saddle, 50 Delta/50 Delta ; Expiration 30 days, Enter 6 days before ERD and close 0 days before ERD.

 

That's just a typical pre-earning straddle. Your backtest results look good though. I also took a look at the RV charts for SBUX and they indicate a rising RV from today onwards too. Current RV is below average of last 4 ERs and last ER had an outsized move.

 

Entered a few 11/3, 55 straddles for 2.14 debit and a few 11/17, 55 straddles for 2.6 debit.

Edited October 27, 2017 by akito

[Mary]

Thanks for that input! Well Received.

[NikTam]

@akito can you please copy and paste that RV chart on SBUX?

[akito]

3 minutes ago, NikTam said:

@akito can you please copy and paste that RV chart on SBUX?

This is with the closest expiration:

FYI, I just got this from https://www.art-of.trading/graph-straddles/, which is still free at the moment. (courtesy of @Christof+ )

 

Playing around with some of the expiration mins, the 10 day expiration min looks even better. (thus why I opened some of the November monthly as well)

Edited October 27, 2017 by akito

[NikTam]

Thank you!  I like free. 

 

I know I am missing something but I never find these RV charts very compelling.  The average line looks flat for RV, plus theta loss.  I just don't get the Greeks, I guess....

Edited October 27, 2017 by NikTam

[NikTam]

I'm clearing the decks for more of these -- so took my loss on TLT PCS as it was up a bit today.

[akito]

The RV being flat says that implied volatility (vega) keeps up and compensates for time decay (theta). So we can hold a position without worry about time decay and wait for potential delta/gamma gains from stock movement.

[NikTam]

@akito  THANK YOU.  Now it makes sense.  I am a dullard.

[IgorK]

25 minutes ago, akito said:

That's just a typical pre-earning straddle. Your backtest results look good though. I also took a look at the RV charts for SBUX and they indicate a rising RV from today onwards too. Current RV is below average of last 4 ERs and last ER had an outsized move.

 

Entered a few 11/3, 55 straddles for 2.14 debit and a few 11/17, 55 straddles for 2.6 debit.

@akito What is the expected move? Looking for 3 straddles (half position). Will it be enough?

[akito]

2 minutes ago, IgorK said:

@akito What is the expected move? Looking for 3 straddles (half position). Will it be enough?

I have no idea what the expected move is. I'm just going by Kim's rules with pre-earning straddles. So, a full allocation (10% of portfolio) and a profit target of ~10%.

 

@Mary 's backtest screenshot does show an average of ~19% gain though (with 30 day expiry).

Edited October 27, 2017 by akito

[IgorK]

26 minutes ago, akito said:

I have no idea what the expected move is. I'm just going by Kim's rules with pre-earning straddles. So, a full allocation (10% of portfolio) and a profit target of ~10%.

Thanks @akito and @Mary. Bought half position for 2.14 too.  Will see.

Edited October 27, 2017 by IgorK

[Khonsu]

If anyone entered TTWO earlier this week, should be up pretty good right now. I entered Nov-17 108 calls for 3.1, up 44% at the moment. Thinking I'll just set a tight stop loss and see how much higher I can ride it.

[Sirion]

On 10/25/2017 at 1:51 PM, Sirion said:

That seems to be the expectation, but I don't know if it's been confirmed yet or not. 

 

I entered at 2.90 a few minutes ago. I don't think it would actually fill at 2.75. Maybe 2.85, now that TTWO's come back a little.

I exited at 4.20 with an order I set before I stepped away before lunch. Currently at 4.35

45% gain before commissions in two days. Solid win.

[NikTam]

OCO took me out of TTWO P-E 40 Delta Long Call with 40% gain.  Another winner.  Only YUM is dragging a bit.

More clearing the deck:  Exited SVXY for a tiny loss and thankful to move on from the macro economic plays.  I will leave those to the pro's.  Five 40% gainers since Wed this week.  Also, I'm not committing more than 3% per trade, which is more to my liking.

Edited October 27, 2017 by NikTam

[RapperT]

also had my TTWO order filled at 40%

[NikTam]

YUM  I don't like the chart so I'm trying to bail on this one with 20-25% loss.

Exited at .79 for 25% loss.  Will look at again on Monday.

So one 25% loser and five 40% gainers this week.  I'm ok with that!

Edited October 27, 2017 by NikTam

[IgorK]

14 minutes ago, NikTam said:

YUM  I don't like the chart so I'm trying to bail on this one with 20-25% loss.

Out at 25% loss at .79

Doe it make sense to reenter?

Edited October 27, 2017 by IgorK

[Mdahl]

It is getting near stop loss, but I may try to hold. Last few cycles make me feel there's some potential in days -2 and -1, but will have to watch if this cycle's an aberration.

 

[Djtux]

YUM : i'm holding longer to see what happens. My allocation is small anyway.

[Mdahl]

And want to reiterate gratitude to NikTam for opening this discussion.  Helpful discussions and inputs.

[Djtux]

4 hours ago, krisbee said:

I entered 120 calls 38 delta. ( @Djtux u made 25+% already i think)

MAR I just reentered 120 calls 11/03 at 1.00. Got paid 0.12 commissions, strange to not pay commissions.

[krisbee]

Just now, Djtux said:

MAR I just reentered 120 calls 11/03 at 1.00. Got paid 0.12 commissions, strange to not pay commissions.

Same with me. I paid 62 cents for lot of contracts in total. Amazing. It got filled thru GEMINI.

[Djtux]

1 minute ago, krisbee said:

Same with me. I paid 62 cents for lot of contracts in total. Amazing. It got filled thru GEMINI.

BATS for me. Are you using the SMART MaxRebate ? Or just SMART ? I don't remember if you use IB or not.

[IgorK]

3 minutes ago, Djtux said:

MAR I just reentered 120 calls 11/03 at 1.00. Got paid 0.12 commissions, strange to not pay commissions.

 

1 minute ago, krisbee said:

Same with me. I paid 62 cents for lot of contracts in total. Amazing. It got filled thru GEMINI.

The same. paid .34 commissions. Lowest I think so far. PSE

[krisbee]

On 10/27/2017 at 3:12 PM, Djtux said:

BATS for me. Are you using the SMART MaxRebate ? Or just SMART ? I don't remember if you use IB or not.

SMART. That's what it shows in my tool. What is SMART MaxRebate? may be u can explain it in different thread.

 

Edited May 4, 2019 by krisbee

[Djtux]

1 minute ago, krisbee said:

SMART. That's what it shows in my tool. What is SMART MaxRebate? may be u can explain it in different thread.

 

Let's continue the conversation about IB here : https://steadyoptions.com/forums/forum/topic/5-brokers-and-commissions/?do=findComment&comment=81707

 

(There is also a link to the Smart Max Rebate).

[NikTam]

 

I'm looking at EXC, ADP, AER and BABA for 3 day P-E long call.  So buy today and sell by end of day Nov 1.  Baba strong in pre market but only showing a 1 year track record of 75% success.  EXC no weeklys.  All are in uptrends (BABA just reversed to uptrend).  My grid is evolving and I am still only committing to small positions.

 

ADP has weeklys but not great liquidity and wide spreads.

 

Edited October 30, 2017 by NikTam

[akito]

On 10/26/2017 at 12:55 PM, akito said:

Bought a single 76.5, 11/3 YUM call for 1.05 debit as well.

Sold for 0.55. 47% loss. Looks like it is going further down.

[IgorK]

1 minute ago, akito said:

Sold for 0.55. 47% loss. Looks like it is going further down.

MAR and SBUX not better too.

[krisbee]

MAR 

On 10/27/2017 at 3:08 PM, Djtux said:

MAR I just reentered 120 calls 11/03 at 1.00. Got paid 0.12 commissions, strange to not pay commissions.

did MAR changed the earnings date? I'm not sure (forgot) why I entered 11/03 last week.

[NikTam]

3 day P-E positions:  I was filled on ADP 119 Call Nov 3 at 2.20.   BABA 182.5 Nov 3 filled at 3.75.  Set my OCO at 40% profit and 25% stop loss.

Edited October 30, 2017 by NikTam

[IgorK]

8 minutes ago, krisbee said:

MAR 

did MAR changed the earnings date? I'm not sure (forgot) why I entered 11/03 last week.

I have reminder for tomorrow. Not sure why entered either.

[Djtux]

8 minutes ago, krisbee said:

MAR 

did MAR changed the earnings date? I'm not sure (forgot) why I entered 11/03 last week.

Didn't changed. We entered early but we knew that :).

http://investor.shareholder.com/MAR/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1041903

Quote

BETHESDA, Md., Sept. 27, 2017 /PRNewswire/ -- Marriott International, Inc. (NASDAQ: MAR) will report third quarter 2017 earnings results on Tuesday, November 7, 2017, after market close, to be followed by a conference call for the investment community to discuss third quarter 2017 earnings on Wednesday, November 8, 2017 at 10:00 a.m. ET.  Mr. Arne Sorenson, Marriott International's president and chief executive officer, and Ms. Leeny Oberg, Marriott International's executive vice president and chief financial officer, will discuss the company's performance.

 

[NikTam]

I show MAR as a good 7 day P-E candidate which would mean entering tomorrow.  I did enter early last week and got taken out by OCO order at profit.

http://tm.cmlviz.com/index.php?share_key=20171030135908_96VLj6pUEsyevFsW

Edited October 30, 2017 by NikTam

[krisbee]

9 minutes ago, Djtux said:

Didn't changed. We entered early but we knew that :).

http://investor.shareholder.com/MAR/releasedetail.cfm?ReleaseID=1041903

 

yep, I know we entered early. But I didn't double check the option date. We should have entered Nov 10th instead of Nov 3. Sigh..... 

[NikTam]

BABA taking off.  I saw this developing in after market hours. 40% target --almost there.  ADP not so good.  May get stopped out.

[Sirion]

NVDA confirmed 11/9 AC earnings. That puts us entering Thursday

 

Edit: Entered BABA a little later than NikTam, 40 delta was Nov 3 185 call for me. Entered at 3.65. 

Entered ADP at a better price, Nov 3 119 for 2.00

 

Yum has dipped more. Looking to exit at a loss. Got lucky that I kept that one smaller than normal due to the strangle also active.

Edited October 30, 2017 by Sirion