EarningsStudy research tools

[Kim]

We've Partnered with EarningsStudy — Free Core Access for SteadyOptions all services bundle subscribers 

 

Every so often we come across a tool that fits what this community is actually about — doing the work, understanding the trade, and not paying a fortune for the privilege. We've found one, and we've arranged something for you.

We're pleased to announce a partnership with EarningsStudy, an earnings-focused options analytics platform. As a SteadyOptions member with Subscription to all service bundle, you get access to EarningsStudy's full core platform at no cost — the same membership their private members pay for, opened up to our community.

 

Why we partnered with EarningsStudy

We don't put the SteadyOptions name behind tools lightly, and we don't recommend anything we wouldn't use ourselves.

What won us over is that EarningsStudy isn't a product spun up overnight to ride a trend. @krisbee along with me @Kim has been building and refining the platform for more than four years — through every kind of earnings season and every kind of market. That's the same patient, do-the-work mindset our members will recognize.

Just as important is the intention behind the offer. Our goal is simple: give back to the trading community by putting the core features in as many serious traders' hands as possible — free, for as long as possible. That's not a limited-time gimmick to harvest sign-ups. It's the reason this partnership exists, and it's why it sits so naturally alongside what we do here.

EarningsStudy's private membership runs at an introductory $39.99/month — itself a deliberately discounted, early-access rate. Through this partnership, if you have all services bundle, your access to the core platform is fully complimentary.

What you get as part of core features

Everything below is part of the access you're being given:

• Earnings calendar — Every upcoming report across 1,000+ tracked symbols, so you spot high-conviction setups early instead of scrambling the morning of.
• 12 options strategy models — Straddles, strangles, iron flies, calendars and double diagonals, call debit spreads, and long options — each modeled and ranked by expected edge so you compare apples to apples.
• Expected move & volatility — See exactly what move the market is pricing into the print, before and after it happens, instead of guessing.
• Side-by-side strategy comparison — Stack candidate strategies against one another for the same name and event, and let the numbers pick the winner.
• Post-earnings outcome analysis — Learn how comparable setups actually resolved after the report, so your decisions are grounded in history, not hope.
• Peer earnings view — Read a company against its peer group to catch the read-through plays others miss.
• Personal watchlists & favorites — Track only the names and setups you care about, and surface them instantly.
• Track your strategy setups — Follow a setup from the moment it catches your eye all the way through the print. Pin the strategies you're watching, see how their pricing and expected move shift as the event approaches, revisit the history behind each one, and review exactly how it played out afterward — so every setup you track becomes a lesson that sharpens the next one.
• Fresh data, daily — The whole platform is refreshed every day, so you're acting on what's true now.
• …and a lot more — These are the headlines, not the full list. The platform rewards the curious, and you'll keep finding tools the deeper you go.

And this is just the core. EarningsStudy also has an additional layer of advanced features still in the wings — capabilities that aren't part of the free core offer yet. As they're released, our members will be among the first to see them.

How to get in

EarningsStudy has set this up in two paths, depending on your SteadyOptions plan.

All services bundle SteadyOptions members — you're already pre-approved

If you hold the all services bundle SteadyOptions membership, your EarningsStudy application is pre-approved. 

1. Go to https://earningsstudy.com/
2. Sign in with the same email address you use here on SteadyOptions
3. Complete the short onboarding questionnaire
4. That's it — every core feature unlocks immediately
    

On another SteadyOptions plan — register and sign up

Not on the all services bundle membership? 

1. Register at https://earningsstudy.com/ using the same email you use on SteadyOptions
2. Join EarningsStudy as a paying customer at introductory price of $39.99/month.

In the spirit of SteadyOptions

This is exactly the kind of thing we like to do. SteadyOptions has always stood for educating traders and handing them the real tools to stand on their own — not gatekeeping, not hype, just giving our community what it needs to trade independently and well.

Most of the time that means writing: breaking down strategies, sharing trades, explaining the why behind every decision. This goes a step further. Rather than only writing about how to read an earnings setup, we're putting the actual platform that does it into your hands. Articles teach; tools empower — and today you get both.

Consider it a thank-you to a community that has always given generously, alongside a partner who clearly wants to do the same.

Earnings move fast. Now you'll see them coming.

— The SteadyOptions Team

 

NOTE: Any questions/issues, send DM to @krisbee @Kim

[krisbee]

 

Unlocking EarningsStudy's Daily Screener

The Daily Screener — one of EarningsStudy's most-used tools, and until now reserved for SO Contributors — is being opened up to all Subscribers, free of charge. If you've been curious what the Contributors have been working from each morning, this is it, and now it's yours too.

What the Daily Screener does

Every trading day, the Daily Screener surfaces the names with earnings on the immediate horizon and lays out how the market is pricing them across EarningsStudy's strategy models — straddles, calendars, strangles, iron flies, double diagonals, long options, and call debit spreads,... — in a single, sortable view. Instead of hunting name by name, you get the day's opportunity set on one screen, ready before the bell.

A couple of things worth knowing

It's a daily tool — check it daily. The screen is built around what's reporting now. It refreshes each trading day, so its value is in the habit: a quick morning look to see which setups are live before the window closes. Yesterday's screen isn't today's.

It's built for comparison, not just a list. Each candidate is shown with strategy-level context and historical win-rate framing, so you're weighing setups against one another on their merits rather than reacting to a single number. If a name trades weekly options, you can fold those into the view as well.

It's a research tool, not a signal service. The Daily Screener is there to sharpen your own judgment and point you toward setups worth a closer look — not to tell you what to trade. As always, do your own diligence before putting on any position.

How to access it

• Already using EarningsStudy? The Daily Screener is now in your sidebar — just sign in and open it.
• Not signed up yet? Register at https://earningsstudy.com/ with the same email you use on SteadyOptions, and you'll have it alongside the rest of the core platform.

This is exactly the kind of thing we set out to do with this partnership: take the tools that were once behind an extra tier and put them in the hands of the whole community. More to come.

— The SteadyOptions Team

 

 

[krisbee]

 

New on the Daily Screener: a liquidity check on every setup

 

 

@FrankTheTank recently asked me a question that's harder to answer than it sounds: "How many of these setups could I actually get filled on?"

It's the right question. A screener can show you a beautiful historical edge — high win rate, strong median return — on a name whose options trade so wide that the edge exists only on paper. The backtest gets a clean theoretical price; you get the spread. Wide bid-ask markets are how a good-looking backtest quietly becomes a bad live trade, and most tools simply don't warn you.

So now the screener does. Every symbol on the Daily Screener carries an NBAS value — a normalized measure of how wide its options markets are, derived from the same market data the historical numbers are built on. Lower = tighter markets = the numbers on your screen are closer to something you can actually have. You don't need to know anything about how it's computed to use it: it's color-coded right in the table — green is tight, amber and orange are questionable, red is wide, and a "—" means the name had no measurable liquid options at all, which is its own answer.

 

 

How to use it

Next to the Return and Win % filters there's a new Spread (NBAS) dropdown. Select the tightest bucket and the board shrinks to names where the market is liquid enough that the historical numbers deserve your attention. When a spread filter is active, unknown-liquidity names are excluded too — if liquidity can't be measured, that's a caution flag, not a free pass.

 

 

 

The honest part

Building this taught me something I wasn't fully expecting, and I'd rather tell you than have you discover it the hard way: once you screen for liquidity honestly, a lot of the board falls away. Far more names than you'd guess carry markets too wide to trade well — including some with genuinely impressive historical stats. That's not a flaw in the backtests; it's the difference between an edge that existed in the data and an edge you can collect. This column exists to keep those two things from being confused.

Two caveats so nobody over-reads the number:

It's a relative ranking, not a fill forecast. The measurement comes from end-of-day data, and closing markets run wider than what you'll typically see intraday on liquid names. Use it to compare names against each other and against the backtest's own pricing basis — not as a prediction of your fill cost tomorrow morning.

A tight spread is a prerequisite, not a signal. Green doesn't make a setup good — it just means the market will let you have it near a fair price. It filters out false edges; it doesn't create real ones.

Before shipping, the values were cross-checked against independent live quotes on several names and lined up well. The number measures what it claims to measure.

 

 

 

 

That screenshot is the whole reason this feature exists: a setup with strong historical stats that you should almost certainly never touch, because the market for it barely exists. Before this column, that row looked identical to a real opportunity.

My updated morning routine

Open the Daily Screener → set the Spread filter to the tightest bucket → then start reading win rates and medians. Liquidity first, edge second. An edge you can't collect isn't an edge, so there's no point evaluating it.

This feature shipped because someone here asked for it — which is how most of the platform gets built. Curious about the methodology details? They're documented inside the app for members. And if there's a number you wish the screener showed, or a question you keep answering by hand, say so here or DM me. The fastest way to get a feature is to complain about its absence.

 

Thanks to @FrankTheTank @Bhavan1986 for sparking the idea & and to my teammates @Kim @Yowster @TrustyJules for helping shape the app!

 

How to access it

 

• Already using EarningsStudy? The Daily Screener is now in your sidebar — just sign in and open it.
• Not signed up yet? Register at https://earningsstudy.com/ with the same email you use on SteadyOptions, and you'll have it alongside the rest of the core platform.

This is exactly the kind of thing we set out to do with this partnership: take the tools that were once behind an extra tier and put them in the hands of the whole community. More to come.

— The SteadyOptions Team

 

 

 

SO members on the ALL bundle: full core access to EarningsStudy is free through the partnership.

Everything above is historical/educational analysis, not a trade recommendation or financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk. Liquidity measurements are from end-of-day data and will differ from intraday markets.

 

 

[FrankTheTank]

Thanks for adding the spread filter.  I find that helpful to weed out unrealistic trades.  

[krisbee]

 

Macro events are now drawn on the charts themselves — CPI, PPI, FOMC, JOBS, GDP, PCE

 

 

Quick feature note, because this one changes how the charts read.

 

You've had the macro events calendar next to the earnings calendar in the app for a while — FOMC, CPI, PPI, JOBS, GDP, PCE, laid out against the reporting slate. As of this week, those same events are also marked directly on the strategy charts: straddle, strangle, calendar, and long options pages all now show a marker on the exact trading day each macro event lands, both on the days already traded this cycle and on the days still ahead of the print.

Why I wanted this on the chart and not just on a separate calendar page:

 

1. It explains the bumps you're already looking at. When the RV line kinks up mid-cycle, the first question should always be "was that earnings drift, or did CPI print that morning?" Before, answering that meant flipping between the chart and the calendar and counting days. Now the answer is sitting on the chart at the exact T-day it happened.

2. IV builds into known events — and your entry day might be one of them. Options premium tends to firm up going into a scheduled macro release and deflate after it passes. That means a position entered at T-5 the day before CPI is not the same instrument as one entered at T-5 the day after — even at the same distance from earnings. Part of what you're paying (or collecting) is macro vol, not earnings vol. Seeing the marker next to your intended entry day makes that visible before you commit, not after.

3. Event-on-event risk stops being a surprise. The screenshot below is [NVDA] — note [PCE] landing [right against T-0]. An earnings print with a major macro release stacked next to it is a different bet than a clean print: two catalysts, one position. That's exactly the kind of thing that's obvious on a chart and easy to miss on a list.

4. The days ahead are marked too, not just history. The chart shows the remaining trading days into the print with upcoming events already flagged — so if you're planning an entry at [T-x] and there's a [FOMC] marker two days before it, you can decide on purpose whether you want to be positioned through that release or enter after the dust settles.

 

Usual caveat, because I'd rather over-say it: these markers are context, not signals. Nothing about a CPI flag tells you which way vol resolves. What it does is make sure that when you're reading a median path across [N] historical cycles, you know which of those days were carrying a second event — and whether your planned path is carrying one now.

 

This came out of my own annoyance flipping between pages during CPI week — if there's an event type you'd want added, or you'd rather be able to toggle the markers off, say so here. That's how most of these features get built.

 

[PBJ]

is there a feature where you can save your scans or filters

[krisbee]

1 minute ago, PBJ said:

is there a feature where you can save your scans or filters

Yes, we released it last night. Check out "What's new" menu. 

[Yowster]

Thanks @krisbee for adding the macro events to the charts.  One thing to note, and it's an obvious thing but deserves to be noted - the macro events are for this cycle only, the prior cycles have no such ties to those event on a given T-x day.

[myang]

@krisbee @Kim Thanks for bring this tool to us! I just registered my account. Do I need to let them know I am a member of SO community? I don't have the all service bundle, so how long does it take to have the access to all the functions?

Thank you

[krisbee]

2 minutes ago, myang said:

@krisbee @Kim Thanks for bring this tool to us! I just registered my account. Do I need to let them know I am a member of SO community? I don't have the all service bundle, so how long does it take to have the access to all the functions?

Thank you

We see your account. Next steps, please check your email. 

 

[Kim]

Clarification in case it wasn't clear enough in the initial post:

All services bundle members get a free access to the tool as long as they keep their All services bundle subscription.
The rest can subscribe at incredible introductory price of $39.99.

As @krisbee continues adding new exclusive features, the price will go up, but those who join now are always grandfathered at the price they joined.

Personally I think the tool is worth at least $100-120/month, and it will get there eventually.

[krisbee]

Thank you @Kim — and welcome to everyone who registered this week.

A few of you asked what's actually inside. Fair question — the screenshots only ever show a corner of it. Here's the full picture, same platform for both paths: free with the All-services bundle for as long as you keep it, or $39.99/month at the introductory rate, grandfathered at whatever price you join at.

The scale of it first, because it's the part you can't see from a screenshot. This isn't one strategy with a win rate on top. The platform models 27 distinct strategy variants on every name:

• Calendars — put and call, each at monthly or 1–5 weeks: 10 variants
• Strangles — ATM, ATM+1, ATM+2 wings
• Iron Flies — base, wing 1, wing 2
• Double Diagonals — base, wing 1, wing 2
• Long options — 40Δ and 90Δ, calls and puts
• Straddles and call debit spreads
• Few more strategies to be opened for public soon

Every variant gets its own full return matrix — entry day × exit day, median historical return per path, every underlying earnings cycle preserved. Across 2,000+ symbols with backtested history, that comes to over 191 million backtested entry-to-exit outcomes sitting behind the screens — recomputed as new cycles complete, refreshed every trading day. When a tile shows you "Win 88%", the cycles behind it are one click away, with the VIX each one happened under. No summary stat without its receipts.

How you actually use it, day to day:

• The Summary page — type a symbol, get the whole picture on one screen: next earnings date, current setup, where today's relative volatility sits against that name's own history, and the suggested structure. It's the "should I even look closer?" page.
• The Daily Screener — every name opening an entry window, across all variants at once, filterable by median return, win rate, strategy, weeklies, and spread. Liquidity (NBAS) is one gate among several, not the headline — probability and consistency do the ranking; the spread column just keeps the backtest honest about fills.
• The return matrix — the deep dive. Compare entering T-12 vs T-5, exiting before the print vs holding through it. Click any cell for the cycle-by-cycle history.
• Holding through the print — the matrices don't stop at T-0. The T-0 → T+1 paths show what historically happened when a position was held through the release — for every variant, every name. Whether holding through earnings has historically paid or punished on your specific setup isn't a debate; it's a column.
• Post-earnings outcome analysis — after each print, see how the setups you were watching actually resolved, so the review loop is built in.
• Peer earnings view — read HD's print against TGT and WMT before they report. Read-through weeks are half the season.
• Macro events calendar — FOMC, CPI, PPI [+GDP/PCE/JOBS if live] next to the earnings calendar, because some weeks the vol you're buying isn't earnings vol. And it's not just a calendar: the same backtest engine runs on macro events too — 130,000+ backtested outcomes on straddles and strangles entered around scheduled macro releases.
• Watchlists, favorites, and setup tracking — pin a setup, watch its pricing and expected move evolve daily through the print, review it after.

Every tracked setup becomes a lesson.
And it keeps moving. Check the What's New page: 8 additional features shipped in the last 4 weeks (we are not even 2 months after go-live) — the spread filter, peer earnings date overlaying on RV charts, macro events overlaying on charts...— nearly all of them because someone here asked. Lately the pace has been one to two releases a week, and the roadmap is mostly this thread's questions, ranked.

If something's missing or confusing, DM @Kim or @krisbee — that's how the product gets built.

Everything in the platform is historical/educational analysis, not trade recommendations or financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk.
 

[Kim]

Here is another cool feature.

Say you consider NVDA calendar, and you want to see how it performed in the past. It is one click away:

 

 

[krisbee]

 

Dashboard redesign is live — the app now starts with your day, not a blank search box

The dashboard got a ground-up redesign. The idea behind it: you shouldn't have to go hunting every morning — the first screen should already know what today looks like and what you care about. What's new:

Today, at the top. The day's report queue — who's in an entry window right now, before you've typed anything. Next to it, Your week: the full lane of what's coming, so Monday-you can see Thursday's setups forming.

"Opportunities for you" — with your definition of an opportunity. Three presets to start: Top winning trades (highest median return on the board, any structure), Most consistent (sorted by win rate, and only names with 2 to 3 years earnings cycles of history behind the number — no small-sample heroes), and Tightest spreads (lowest NBAS first, so tradeable markets rank ahead of wide ones).

"Where's your bar?" — the preferences wizard. This is the part I'm most pleased with. Tell the dashboard your standards once and it filters everything to match: minimum win rate, median return range, how much spread cost you'll tolerate, which structures you trade, weekly-options-only if that's your rule, and "only my symbols" if you want your watchlist and favorites and nothing else.

Filter by how the trade wins, not just what it's called. Every structure is tagged by its profit mechanism — IV crush (iron flies), needs a move (straddles, strangles, long options), near-strike + IV (calendars), IV + move (double diagonals). If you're only in the mood to sell the ramp, or only want defined-risk movement bets, one filter shows you just those setups. It's a small thing that changes how you scan.

Your tracked setups, front and center. Anything you're tracking from a strategy page now has its own panel on the dashboard — the day-by-day repricing you've pinned, waiting for you at login instead of three clicks deep.

And it's fast. 

Everything here came from watching how you all actually start your mornings — and several pieces trace straight back to questions asked on this thread. Keep them coming: if your first five minutes in the app still involve a workaround, that's the next thing I build.

 

[urfiend]

Hi Kim

Can you please explain how this calendar week comparison table works and how the selection of the eg put strike distance in the graph is selected. 

Would according to the calendar week comparison in this case a call calendar 1 w be even better?

Great site overall and so much to discover. Thank you.

 

 

[krisbee]

2 minutes ago, urfiend said:

Can you please explain how this calendar week comparison table works and how the selection of the eg put strike distance in the graph is selected. 

I'll add documentation about it later today.

[Bekim]

This is a great tool; it takes a lot of the guesswork on finding the sweet spot for an entry and whether to take or avoid a trade 

[krisbee]

 

 

@Bekim's AVGO calendar — shared with his permission

A member messaged me before market close today after closing out an AVGO calendar. Sharing it with his blessing (email address redacted):

Scaling out in thirds at +10%, +15% and +20% — that's the part I'd highlight, more than the ticker. He didn't swing for the best cell on the board; he set staged exits and let the position pay him on the way through. Exit discipline like that is what makes a good setup a good trade.

For anyone who wants to study the same setup after the fact, here's what the calendar matrix showed for AVGO in that entry window: Below is the Entry today row from return matrix.

And the standard honesty note, because one message doesn't change the math: a well-executed winner doesn't validate a strategy any more than one loser invalidates it. The losing cycles are still right there in the cell popup, and the next person opening this trade should size for them. What history gives you is a fair price for the bet — the discipline in how you enter, size, and exit is what this member supplied himself.

@Bekim found AVGO RV line is historically low this cycle & entered the trade. He is pretty new user to EarningsStudy, he is still learning how to use various options strategies. And EarningsStudy has plenty of back tested strategies. 

If you've run your own setup through the app — win or lose — We from SteadyOptions team would love to see it because the losses teach the thread as much as the wins do.

 

NOTE: I entered AVGO a little earlier than Bekim did, and a run of bad news knocked the stock from ~420 down to ~360 in the span of three days. It's a good reminder for the calendar strategy: even a 100% win rate in past cycles doesn't guarantee the next one. But with proper positioning and re-centering, the P/L can still be managed — that's the part that comes with experience.

 

SO members on the ALL bundle: full core access to EarningsStudy is free through the partnership — sign in at earningsstudy.com with your SO email.

Historical/educational analysis, not financial advice or a trade recommendation. Options trading involves substantial risk.

 

 

 

[Kim]

In case you haven't seen it - https://steadyoptions.com/articles/the-last-14-minutes-why-we-stopped-looking-at-options-closing-prices-r837/

The tool now presents 3:46 data rather than closing quotes. This is a game changer. We can now see much more realistic quotes, especially for less liquid options with wider spreads.

[krisbee]

 

What's new: exit rules on the Daily Screener, and a look at the volatility term structure

Two features shipped this week. They came out of the same complaint, which was mostly my own: the screener was very good at telling me when to get in and said almost nothing about when to get out, or about what volatility was doing while I waited.

---

1. The Daily Screener now understands exit rules

Until now the screener answered exactly one question: if I enter on this date and hold to T-0, what did that return across the last N earnings cycles?

That's a real question. It's also a strangely rigid one. It assumes you sit through the entire pre-earnings window no matter what the position does — that a trade up 30% at T-7 and a trade up half a percent at T-7 are the same trade, because you're holding both to the same day.

Anyone who actually runs these knows that isn't how it goes. You take the money when it's there.

So there's now an Exit rule control, and it's the first thing in the filter row.

Hold to T-0 is the screener you already know. Take profit at +10% re-scores the whole board against a different plan: leave the moment the position is up 10%, and only hold to T-0 in the cycles where it never gets there. Every number on the page then answers the new question instead of the old one. That's the whole feature.

What a cell tells you now

With a target selected, each cell leads with how many past cycles reached it — one small block per cycle, filled where it hit — and the median return of that rule underneath.

The block strip matters more than it looks, because it carries the sample size as well as the hit count, and the number of qualifying cycles isn't the same for every symbol. A newer listing might only have two or three on file. 2 of 2 and 8 of 8 are both perfect scores; only one of them is evidence, and now you can tell which without opening anything.

Grey cells are their own answer: no cycle ever reached the target, so every cycle fell back to holding and the figure shown is just the hold-to-T-0 return. Not a target result at all.

The example that convinced me

This is COST, real board, last N cycles.

Held to T-0, the 90-delta long call is a bloodbath across the first three entry days: −21.9%, −29.4%, −27.2%. On the old screener you'd skip it without a second thought, and you'd be right to.

Switch the exit rule to +10% and the same three entry days read 6 of 8, 5 of 8, 3 of 8.

 

The trade gets there. It just doesn't stay there. Held to the end it hands everything back and then some; taken at +10% it worked in six of the last eight cycles from that entry day.

 

Click any cell for the receipts (Full details shows up on the right pane)

[Subscribe to see more details]

---

2. Volatility term structure, through the pre-earnings window

The second feature answers a different complaint: IV is up — is that my earnings, or is that the macro calendar?

The volatility chart now plots the term structure across the run-up: the 7, 30, 60 and 90-day tenors together, plus the front and second expiry IV, from T-30 through to earnings.

Seeing the tenors on one axis is the point. A front expiry pulling away from the back of the curve is the earnings premium building, and you can watch it happen day by day instead of inferring it from a single number. Flat separation means the premium isn't there yet.

Macro events are marked on the same timeline — FOMC, CPI, PPI, PCE, jobs, GDP — which is what stops you misreading the chart. IV rising into your entry doesn't automatically mean the earnings premium is inflating; sometimes there's a CPI print sitting inside your holding window doing it instead. Those are two different trades and they deserve two different decisions.

 

---

Where to find all this

The profit-target view is now the default Daily Screener. Nothing is hidden — set the exit rule to Hold to T-0 and you have exactly the board you had last week, and the Classical View button next to the filters takes you back to the old layout entirely.

There's also a Help button on the screener now that opens a full walkthrough in the side panel: how to read a cell, what the colors mean, and the win-rate-versus-hit-rate distinction above. Worth five minutes before you rely on the numbers.

---

How I use it now

1. Spread filter to the tightest bucket first — liquidity before edge, as always.
2. Exit rule to +10%, Hit rate % to 60% or more.
3. Scan for strong cells in the early columns. An entry day well before earnings gives the target room to get there.
4. Open the cell and read the cycle list before committing to anything. If the hit rate rests on two cycles, I haven't found anything yet.

As always: if there's a number you wish the screener showed, send me a message. That's how both of these got built.

---

SO members on the ALL bundle: full core access to EarningsStudy is free through the partnership — just sign in at earningsstudy.com with your SO email.

Everything above is historical and educational analysis, not a trade recommendation or financial advice. Options trading involves substantial risk. Historical figures are derived from end-of-day data and will differ from intraday markets and from your actual fills.

 

 

[krisbee]

 

One grid, five questions — the new return matrix (Beta)

The return matrix has always answered one question: what does the median cycle pay for every entry/exit pair? That is a good question. It is not the only one worth asking, and the same grid can answer the others without changing shape.

The Beta matrix lets you change what the color means. Same entry × exit triangle, same history behind it, five different questions. It is live on every pre-earnings strategy page: Calendar, Straddle, Strangle, Iron Fly, Double Diagonal, Long Options, Call Debit Spread, etc.,

Screenshot 1 — MU straddle, colored by median return. Today’s entry, T-7, is the boxed row.

The five questions

Color the cells by	The question it answers
Median return	What does a typical cycle pay? This is the Classic view.
Return per day held	Which pairs pay fastest? Median return divided by days held, so a two-day hold and a seven-day hold are compared on equal terms.
Win rate	How often did the pair finish positive at all?
Reached target	How many cycles reached +5%, +10%, +15% or +20% by that exit day?
Cycles behind it	How much history is each number actually built on?

Reached target is the one I would look at first.

Screenshot 2 — Same grid, now counting cycles that reached +10% by each exit day.

On MU, a T-7 straddle reached +10% in 4 of 8 cycles by T-2 — and holding on to T-0 added no new ones. Those last two days bought more exposure, not more hits. The median view cannot tell you that; this one says it in a glance.

The rows you can actually trade

Half the triangle is entry days that have already passed. Only entries I can still take is on by default and fades them, so the ranking on the right lists only trades you can still put on today.

It also makes the grid easier to read honestly. Look at the T-6 row in screenshot 1: one day later than today’s T-7 entry, the same straddle is red across the board.

Every number opens up

A median over eight cycles hides a lot. Hover any cell and you get every cycle behind it with the VIX that ruled it — gains in green, losses in red. Click it and the side panel pins the cycle list, with the actual calendar dates of your entry and exit.

 

Screenshot 3 — Hover a cell: every cycle, its return and its VIX.

Screenshot 4 — Click a cell: the side panel pins it, with real entry and exit dates.

That is the honest read on MU’s best pair. T-7 → T-0 has a +11.9% median, but the individual cycles ran from −34.8% to +54.5%, and five of the eight were winners. A real edge with wide dispersion — size accordingly.

Straddle vs Strangle, head to head

Two matrices side by side ask you to subtract two colour scales in your head — and they were never on the same scale. In Beta, Compare with Strangle draws one grid instead: each cell is Straddle minus Strangle, teal where the straddle wins and amber where the strangle does. Click a cell for the cycle-by-cycle scorecard.

Screenshot 5 — MU, T-4 → T-0: the strangle leads by 4.6 points (+8.8% against +4.2%) and won 6 of 8 cycles.

The scorecard is the part two separate grids can never show. A small median edge that came from one lucky cycle looks identical to one that held up in six of eight — until you count them. It works the other way round from the Strangle page, and the wing selector lets you compare against a specific wing or the best one.

Three wings, one row

Strangle, Iron Fly and Double Diagonal each have three wings, which used to mean three rows per entry day and a matrix three times taller than the rest. Beta folds them into one row: each cell is split into three bands — Base, Wing 1 and Wing 2 from top to bottom. A third of the height, all three wings visible at once. Pick a single wing, or Best, and the numbers come back into the cells.

Screenshot 6 — MU strangle: one row per entry day, one band per wing.

Hover a banded cell and the three wings line up cycle by cycle:

Screenshot 7 — MU strangle, T-6 → T-3: every wing lost in the same five cycles.

When all three wings agree like that, the wing is not the problem — the timing is.

Screenshot 8 — The same banded view on Iron Fly. Double Diagonal work the same way.

How to turn it on

• Open any pre-earnings strategy page and load a symbol.
• Above the History Matrix, click Beta. Classic is one click away, and your choice is remembered.
• The VIX filter, earnings cycles and “3 days before current day” settings all carry over.

It is labelled Beta because I want your feedback before it replaces anything. Tell me which view you end up using — and which question you wish the grid could answer that it cannot yet.

 

[ranieri93]

thanks for this @krisbee

[urfiend]

Confirmed Earnings Dates - I am confused.

I love your approach and the simple filter earnings date confirmed, even adding the IR web link leading to the investors page.

I have great belief in your resources getting earnings dates confirmed so I just want to verify how you get the dates verified even when the IR page does not have the date yet (CAT) or shows projected (AMAT)?

Can you please  add an USD range, liquidity and a strategy filter to your EarningsCalendar page?

[krisbee]

1 hour ago, urfiend said:

I love your approach and the simple filter earnings date confirmed, even adding the IR web link leading to the investors page.

I have great belief in your resources getting earnings dates confirmed so I just want to verify how you get the dates verified even when the IR page does not have the date yet (CAT) or shows projected (AMAT)?

Can you please  add an USD range, liquidity and a strategy filter to your EarningsCalendar page?

I'm glad you used those links to double check the dates. Thats the whole purpose of making lives easy to click the IR link before placing the trade.

Regarding CAT they gave the dates in different place on their website here

https://s25.q4cdn.com/358376879/files/doc_financials/2026/q2/2Q-2026-Analyst-Slide-Deck_Final.pdf

Page 22.

 

 

In our experience 90% of the time the confirmed flag aligns with the dates, but there could be misses when the company decides to push the date, they even cancel the earnings call. I have a routine to keep checking the dates across all earning symbols. As a good practice we need to always check the investor relations page to confirm again.

I'll try to add the features on the Earnings calendar pages.

In the month of August we added 40+ features & improvement, September 30+, this month we rolled out 10+ features. Please check out Gex & RSI in the menu. Articles coming out on those soon. 

[krisbee]

AMD reports Nov 3. Five chip peers report before it does

AMD reports Monday, Nov 3 after the close, and the date is confirmed. It's T-11 today, so a pre-earnings trade opened this week will sit through a lot of news that isn't AMD's.

The Summary page puts it on two timelines. On the macro side: FOMC on Oct 28 (T-4), then PCE and GDP on Oct 29 (T-3). On the peer side, five semiconductor companies report while an AMD position would still be open.

AMD Summary page, Oct 19. Macro events and peer reports inside the hold window.

The peer table further down the page lists them with dates:

• LRCX and TXN: Wed Oct 21, after the close (T-9)
• NXPI: Tue Oct 27 (T-5)
• INTC: Thu Oct 29 (T-3), the day after the Fed
• ON: Mon Nov 2 (T-1), the evening before AMD's last pre-earnings session

AMD peer table, the five reports inside the window.

The table lists 15 peers in all. The other ten, including ARM, QCOM and NVDA, report after AMD, so they only matter if you hold through AMD's own report.

Does a peer's report actually move AMD's options? Check it rather than assume it. On the Straddle page, pick a name in the Peer earnings dropdown, and a star marks that peer's report on every past AMD cycle. With INTC selected, none of the past cycles shows a clear jump after the star; most lines keep drifting the way they were already going. And in past cycles INTC mostly reported around AMD's T-8, while this time it lands at T-3, closer to AMD's own report. Run the same check for NXPI, TXN and LRCX before deciding which dates matter to your position.

AMD Straddle RV, 8 past cycles. Stars mark INTC's report in each cycle.

A crowded window isn't a reason to skip the trade. It's a reason to know which dates you're holding through and to size for them.

 

Educational research only, not trade advice. Past cycles don't guarantee future results.

 

[krisbee]

Coming soon: Market Structure, a nightly scan of every optionable stock

The GEX page answers questions about one symbol at a time. The next release, Market Structure, asks the same questions of every optionable stock at once, every evening, from EOD data. It isn't open yet, but it's far enough along that I want to show you what it does and hear what you'd want from it.

On Oct 16's data it scanned 5,991 symbols and counted what stood out, in three groups:

• Positioning: stocks whose net gamma flipped positive or negative, plus call wall and put wall moves.
• Momentum: RSI overbought and oversold, MACD crosses, and Bollinger Band squeezes and breaks.
• Earnings pricing: expected moves priced richer or cheaper than the stock's own history, reports the options haven't priced in yet, and IV rank high or low.

Market Structure preview, EOD Oct 16.

Each count opens the list behind it. Here's the one I expect earnings traders to use most: expected move cheap, for stocks reporting within the next 21 sessions. It found 64. Compare the Exp. move column (what the options price in for the report) with Hist. move (what the stock actually did in past cycles). NDAQ, reporting Oct 22, priced 4.39% against a 5.44% history. CHYM priced 14.43% against 17.85%. These are examples, not picks.

Expected move cheap, earnings within 21 sessions, EOD Oct 16.

A scan like this needs judgment as well as signals. PAG shows 1.59% priced against 6.11% historical. A gap that large usually means thin options rather than a bargain, which is why the list has minimum price and open interest filters, and why you'd still check the spread cost on the Summary page before believing it.

I'm finishing it now and will post here when it opens. If there's a signal you'd want in the scan, send it through the Ask button in the top bar while it's still easy to add.

Educational research only, not trade advice.

 

[krisbee]

HOOD's straddle looks cheap. Is cheap enough?

HOOD reports Tuesday, Oct 27 after the close, and its straddle is priced below its own history. That's where a lot of people stop and buy. It's worth three more minutes, because "cheap" only tells you what you're paying, not what that price has led to.

1. The price. The Straddle RV chart compares the straddle's price, as a percent of the stock price, with the same T-day in past cycles. At the Oct 19 close (T-6) the at-the-money straddle cost $10.65 with the stock at $97.06: an RV of 10.97%, against an 8-cycle median of 11.68% for that day. About 6% cheaper than its own history.

HOOD Straddle page, data as of Oct 19 close. Black line is the 8-cycle median.

2. The path. Follow the black median line to the right. It falls to 9.41% by T-0, about 0.38 points a day. If the stock doesn't move and the straddle follows the median, it gives up about a seventh of its value relative to the stock by the report. A 6% discount doesn't cover that.

3. What entering here actually returned. Scroll down the same page to the History Matrix. Each cell is the median return of entering on one day (rows) and exiting on another (columns), across the same 8 cycles. For HOOD, almost every cell is red. Of the 10 entry and exit pairs still available from T-4 on, the typical one returned −2.7%. Only two were positive: in at T-4 and out the next day (+2.9%), and in at T-2, out at T-1 (+1.7%). Holding to T-0 lost a median 5.2% from a T-4 entry and 6.0% from T-3.

HOOD Straddle History Matrix, median return per entry and exit day, 8 cycles.

4. How often it paid along the way. Switch the matrix to Reached target. From a T-4 entry, 5 of 8 cycles touched +5% at some point before T-0, but only 1 of 8 touched +10% in the first three days and 3 of 8 by T-0. From a T-3 entry, 2 of 8 reached +10%. In plain terms: small gains showed up in some cycles, rarely grew, and mostly didn't last to the report.

Same matrix colored by Reached target, +10%.

Put together: the price is a little below history, the median path still bleeds into the report, and the trade history from here is mostly negative with few cycles reaching a meaningful target. A cheap straddle on a stock whose straddle usually decays is still a straddle that needs a move. If you take it anyway, the matrix says it has been a quick-profit trade, not a hold-to-the-report trade.

To run the same check on any name: open the Straddle page, read the snapshot beside the RV chart, then scroll to the History Matrix, choose Beta, and color the cells by Median return and then by Reached target. The Market Structure scan I mentioned as coming soon will flag cheap and rich names across every symbol; these three views are how you decide whether one of them is worth taking.

One more thing. Tomorrow I'm opening a new page I've been testing with the contributors: build a multi-leg position from the option chain and see its P/L before you place it, with the stock's own earnings history built into the volatility. Here's a corner of it.

Teaser. Full reveal Friday.

Educational research only, not trade advice. Past cycles don't guarantee future results.

 

[rasar]

1 hour ago, krisbee said:

4. How often it paid along the way. Switch the matrix to Reached target.

Thanks for the demonstration, @krisbee. The Earnings Study tool is becoming quite feature-rich. The narration above will be quite helpful, especially to newcomers to SO who haven't had the benefit of being part of the years of forum dialog that have led to the creation of the various SO strategies and the tool itself.

The Median return matrix is helpful, but the the "Reached Target" option adds a dimension that I find very useful, since it allows me to examine potential quicker in-out trades with a possibly lower target.

I'm also looking forward to using the spread builder/modeler you mentioned. Keep it up.

[krisbee]

Market Structure is open (Beta)

Earlier this week I said Market Structure was coming. It's open now: look for Market Structure in the sidebar, under the Market Structure section. It carries a Beta label because it's the first version. I'll keep improving the page over the coming weeks, and your feedback will shape what changes.

What it does. Every evening it scans every optionable stock from EOD data (5,962 symbols on Oct 21) and counts what stood out across 17 signals in three groups:

• Positioning: net gamma flipping positive or negative, net GEX changing sign, and call wall or put wall moves.
• Momentum: RSI overbought and oversold, MACD crosses, and Bollinger Band squeezes and breaks.
• Earnings pricing: expected moves priced richer or cheaper than the stock's own history, reports the options haven't priced in yet, and IV rank high or low.

Market Structure (Beta), EOD Oct 21.

How to use it. Click any count, or pick a signal from the list. Then narrow it down: earnings within 5 to 120 sessions, positive or negative GEX regime, minimum price, minimum open interest, your favorites only, or confirmed gamma flips only. Sort by net GEX, distance from the flip, nearest earnings, IV rank or RSI. The As of control steps back through recent sessions, so you can see what the scan said on an earlier day.

An example. "Expected move cheap" flags stocks whose priced earnings move is at most 0.85 times their past-cycle average, with a report inside 21 sessions. On Oct 21 that was 92 names. Adding a $20 minimum price and 5,000 minimum open interest cut it to 22.

Expected move cheap, earnings within 21 sessions, min price $20, min OI 5,000.

Read the Exp. move column (what the options price in for the report) against Hist. move (what the stock actually did in past cycles). SPCX, reporting Nov 3, priced 12.13% against a 17.33% history, and on the same night it flipped to positive gamma with both walls moving higher. PAG priced 1.40% against 6.11%. A gap that wide deserves a second look at liquidity before you trust it.

Details on any name. Click Details on a row for the stock's distance from the gamma flip over recent sessions, a plain-English list of what changed that night, the key levels, and a link straight to its GEX chart.

SPCX details panel, EOD Oct 21.

Why Beta. The history behind each stock is still short (about 17 sessions so far), so flip streaks are marked provisional, and signal thresholds may be tuned as the history grows. GEX levels rest on a standard assumption about dealer positioning, since the data carries no trade direction. Treat every flag as a place to start looking, not a signal to trade. Before acting on a name, open its strategy pages and check the RV chart and History Matrix against its own past cycles.

If a signal is missing, a filter would help, or something looks off, send it with the Ask button in the top bar. It attaches the page you're on.

Educational research only, not trade advice. Model estimates from EOD data; past cycles don't guarantee future results.

 

[FrankTheTank]

Doing pretty well with calendar screener on this tool.   This week I am up:

V calendar up 30%

BA calendar up 24%

Looks like that has also been the most winning trades based on the earnings study data:

 

https://i.imgur.com/FXSlvG2.png

 

[krisbee]

Coming soon: Double Calendar

A few of you trade double calendars around earnings and have asked how they would have done in past cycles. That page is built and in testing now. Here's a preview on NVDA, which reports Nov 17 after the close.

What it models. A double calendar is two calendars on the same expirations: a put calendar below the stock and a call calendar above it. Instead of one tent at the current price, you get two, with a wider range where the trade can still make money. The price for that is a lower peak, so it suits a stock that tends to drift before its report rather than sit still.

How wide. You pick the width in standard deviations of the short expiration (±0.25, ±0.5, ±0.75 or ±1 SD), or as a percent of the stock price. SD makes widths comparable across names: ±0.5 SD is a much smaller dollar distance on KO than on TSLA. A cycle only counts when both halves can actually be priced; the page never quietly falls back to one side or to the at-the-money strike.

NVDA, ±0.5 SD, EOD Oct 28.

At ±0.5 SD, NVDA's double cost 2.80% of the stock price at the Oct 28 close, below its 3.04% median for that point in past cycles. The put side was 46% of the cost.

1. Daily debit curve. The structure re-centered on each day's price, as a percent of the stock, for every past cycle, with the current one in red. On NVDA the debit has tended to rise into the report.

Daily debit curve, 8 past cycles plus the current one (red).

2. Return matrix. The same entry-by-exit matrix as the other strategy pages, with the same coloring modes (median return, return per day, win rate, reached target). For NVDA at ±0.5 SD, the 91 entry and exit pairs still available had a typical median of +3.9%. The best were T-9 to T-0 at +20.0% and T-10 to T-1 at +19.0%. Entering on T-13 itself was weaker: best exit T-2 at +12.2%, and +1.6% if held to T-0.

Return matrix, ±0.5 SD, median return per entry and exit day.

3. Side by side with the regular calendar. Tick "Show ATM Calendar alongside" and each cell shows which structure did better and by how many points. On NVDA it's mixed, and that's the useful part. The double won by about 14 points on T-12 to T-1 and T-13 to T-1, while the at-the-money calendar won by 11 points on T-7 to T-0. A double calendar isn't an upgrade everywhere; this view shows you where.

Double vs ATM calendar, gap in median return (points).

4. Width ladder. For one entry and exit, every width next to the regular calendar and the stock's drift. NVDA from T-13 to T-0: the at-the-money calendar returned −1.7% with 43% wins; ±0.5 SD +1.6% with 71% wins; ±0.75 SD +8.3% and ±1 SD +7.8%, both with 67% wins. The ±0.25 SD row priced only 3 cycles, because the strikes sat too close to the money to count as a separate structure.

Width ladder, entry T-13, exit T-0.

 

I'll post here when it opens. If you trade double calendars a particular way (other widths, different expirations for the two sides), send it through the Ask button while the design is still easy to change.

Educational research only, not trade advice. Based on EOD data; past cycles don't guarantee future results.

 

[krisbee]

Double Calendar is open

Last week I previewed the Double Calendar page. It's open now for every member: look for Double Calendar in the sidebar, right under Calendar. If you'd rather start from the regular calendar, the Calendar page now has a Compare with menu where you can pick Double.

Quick recap: a double calendar is a put calendar below the stock plus a call calendar above it, on the same expirations. You set the width in standard deviations of the short expiration (±0.25 to ±1 SD) or as a percent of the stock price. A cycle only counts when both halves can actually be priced.

Here's how I'd use it, on NVDA. It reports Nov 17 after the close, so today is T-10. Numbers are from EOD data through Nov 2, at ±0.5 SD.

1. Is it cheap or rich? The summary bar shows today's debit as a percent of the stock against the median for the same day in past cycles. NVDA's double cost 2.84% against a 3.51% median at T-11, about a fifth below its own history.

NVDA, ±0.5 SD, EOD Nov 2.

2. What did entering here return? In the return matrix, tick "Only entries I can still take" and read today's row. Entering NVDA's double at T-10 returned a median +3.1% by the next day, building to +15.5% at T-3, +16.7% at T-2 and +19.0% at T-1, and +16.6% if held to T-0. Switch the coloring to Win rate: 7 of 8 cycles finished positive on most of those exits. Across every pair from T-10 on, the typical one returned +4.9%.

Return matrix, ±0.5 SD, median return. Today's T-10 row is outlined.

3. Is it better than the plain calendar? Tick "Show ATM Calendar alongside" and each cell shows which one did better, and by how many points. On the T-10 row the double came out ahead on every exit, by anywhere from 0.9 to 9.6 points; the biggest gap was T-10 to T-1. One row down it flips: from T-9 the at-the-money put calendar won most exits, and T-7 to T-0 went to the ATM calendar by 10.9 points. So the edge here comes from the entry day, not from the structure in general.

Double vs ATM put calendar, gap in median return (points).

4. Which width? The width ladder puts every width next to the regular calendar for one entry and exit. NVDA from T-10 to T-0: the ATM calendar returned +15.6%, ±0.5 SD +16.6% and ±0.75 SD +18.2%, all with 7 of 8 cycles positive. ±1 SD dropped to +11.1%, and ±0.25 SD priced only 3 cycles because the strikes sat too close to the money. The stock itself moved a median +0.1% over that stretch. Click Trade details for each cycle's strikes and debits, with both halves listed separately.

Width ladder, entry T-10, exit T-0.

Not every name looks like this. HD, also reporting mid-November, tells a different story at ±0.5 SD. From today's entry on, the typical pair returned −2.1%. Entering at today's T-9 had a best exit of +4.7% three days later and −0.9% held to T-0. That's the reason to run the four checks rather than assume a double is the better calendar.

Two cautions. Each cell rests on 7 or 8 past cycles, so treat a number as a sample, not a rule. And the double costs more in dollars than the ATM calendar ($5.59 against $3.14 on NVDA here), so compare them by percent return, which is how the page shows them.

Thanks to the members who asked for this. If you trade doubles a particular way (other widths, different expirations for the two sides) or something looks off, send it with the Ask button in the top bar. It attaches the page you're on.

Educational research only, not trade advice. Based on EOD data; past cycles don't guarantee future results.

 

[krisbee]

Coming soon: Directional Calendar

The Calendar page models the at-the-money calendar. Plenty of calendars around earnings are placed off the money instead: above the stock if you lean bullish, below it if you lean bearish, or wherever you think the stock will sit by the report. The next addition to the Calendar page models those, and it's in testing now. Here's a preview on NVDA, which reports Nov 17 after the close. Numbers are from EOD data through Nov 3, at T-9.

What it models. A calendar with the strike set 2%, 5%, 10% or 15% above or below the stock. By default, strikes above use calls and strikes below use puts (the out-of-the-money side), and you can switch either one to puts or calls. It isn't a separate page: in the Calendar page's History Matrix, choose Directional from the Compare with menu, and the regular calendar stays on screen next to it.

The strike rule. A strike only counts if it actually lands near the offset you picked. For +5%, that means between 3.5% and 7.5% above the stock. If no listed strike fits, that day is skipped rather than quietly rounded to the money. At +5% on NVDA, all 115 entry days priced, the strikes landed a median 4.9% above the stock, and the calendar cost a median 1.98% of the stock price.

Compare with Directional, +5% call calendar, NVDA.

1. Head to head with the regular calendar. One grid: each cell is the directional calendar's median return minus the ATM calendar's, purple where the offset did better and teal where ATM did. For NVDA's +5% call calendar entered at today's T-9, the offset only came out ahead on short holds (7.8 points better exiting at T-7). From T-5 onward the ATM calendar won every exit: by 9.5 points at T-2 and 3.9 points held to T-0. The widest gaps still available mostly go to ATM, led by T-5 to T-2 at 15.7 points.

+5% call calendar vs ATM, gap in median return (points). Today's T-9 row is outlined.

2. Offset ladder. For one entry and exit, every offset next to the regular calendar and the stock's own move. NVDA from T-9 to T-0: the stock moved a median −0.3% and rose in only 3 of 8 cycles. The ATM calendar returned +23.0%, the −2% put +23.7% and the +2% call +20.9%. At ±5% returns were about 19%. Further out they fell off: −10% put +12.7%, +10% call +9.5%, −15% put +2.5%, and +15% call −5.1% with only 3 of 8 cycles positive.

Offset ladder, entry T-9, exit T-0.

How to read it. NVDA has barely moved between T-9 and its reports, so strikes near the money did best, and the further out the strike, the worse the result. A directional calendar pays when the stock actually travels toward the strike before you exit. Check the stock drift line and its cycle-by-cycle chips before reaching for an offset. On NVDA they range from −7.1% last August to +5.2% in May, with most cycles inside ±2%.

Two cautions. These are 7 or 8 cycles per cell, so treat any one number as a sample, not a rule. And strikes far from the money cost less in dollars (the −15% put was $1.47 against $2.89 for ATM), so their percentage returns swing harder.

I'll post here when it opens. If you place calendars off the money a particular way (other offsets, a fixed dollar distance, a different expiration pair), send it through the Ask button while the design is still easy to change.

Educational research only, not trade advice. Based on EOD data; past cycles don't guarantee future results.

 

[Optrader]

On 11/3/2026 at 12:04 PM, krisbee said:

Double Calendar is open

Last week I previewed the Double Calendar page. It's open now for every member: look for Double Calendar in the sidebar, right under Calendar. If you'd rather start from the regular calendar, the Calendar page now has a Compare with menu where you can pick Double.

Quick recap: a double calendar is a put calendar below the stock plus a call calendar above it, on the same expirations. You set the width in standard deviations of the short expiration (±0.25 to ±1 SD) or as a percent of the stock price. A cycle only counts when both halves can actually be priced.

Here's how I'd use it, on NVDA. It reports Nov 17 after the close, so today is T-10. Numbers are from EOD data through Nov 2, at ±0.5 SD.

1. Is it cheap or rich? The summary bar shows today's debit as a percent of the stock against the median for the same day in past cycles. NVDA's double cost 2.84% against a 3.51% median at T-11, about a fifth below its own history.

NVDA, ±0.5 SD, EOD Nov 2.

2. What did entering here return? In the return matrix, tick "Only entries I can still take" and read today's row. Entering NVDA's double at T-10 returned a median +3.1% by the next day, building to +15.5% at T-3, +16.7% at T-2 and +19.0% at T-1, and +16.6% if held to T-0. Switch the coloring to Win rate: 7 of 8 cycles finished positive on most of those exits. Across every pair from T-10 on, the typical one returned +4.9%.

Return matrix, ±0.5 SD, median return. Today's T-10 row is outlined.

3. Is it better than the plain calendar? Tick "Show ATM Calendar alongside" and each cell shows which one did better, and by how many points. On the T-10 row the double came out ahead on every exit, by anywhere from 0.9 to 9.6 points; the biggest gap was T-10 to T-1. One row down it flips: from T-9 the at-the-money put calendar won most exits, and T-7 to T-0 went to the ATM calendar by 10.9 points. So the edge here comes from the entry day, not from the structure in general.

Double vs ATM put calendar, gap in median return (points).

4. Which width? The width ladder puts every width next to the regular calendar for one entry and exit. NVDA from T-10 to T-0: the ATM calendar returned +15.6%, ±0.5 SD +16.6% and ±0.75 SD +18.2%, all with 7 of 8 cycles positive. ±1 SD dropped to +11.1%, and ±0.25 SD priced only 3 cycles because the strikes sat too close to the money. The stock itself moved a median +0.1% over that stretch. Click Trade details for each cycle's strikes and debits, with both halves listed separately.

Width ladder, entry T-10, exit T-0.

Not every name looks like this. HD, also reporting mid-November, tells a different story at ±0.5 SD. From today's entry on, the typical pair returned −2.1%. Entering at today's T-9 had a best exit of +4.7% three days later and −0.9% held to T-0. That's the reason to run the four checks rather than assume a double is the better calendar.

Two cautions. Each cell rests on 7 or 8 past cycles, so treat a number as a sample, not a rule. And the double costs more in dollars than the ATM calendar ($5.59 against $3.14 on NVDA here), so compare them by percent return, which is how the page shows them.

Thanks to the members who asked for this. If you trade doubles a particular way (other widths, different expirations for the two sides) or something looks off, send it with the Ask button in the top bar. It attaches the page you're on.

Educational research only, not trade advice. Based on EOD data; past cycles don't guarantee future results.

 

 

Few things I wanted to know if anyone can answer this clearly.

When ATM calendar is profitable , does DC also be profitable on same trade ?

ATM calendar is expected to expand more than DC in general. So was wondering  why would someone start with DC ?

With DC , one calendar will start loosing as underlying moves and you are hoping the other calendar compensates for loosing calendar.

But that hope may / may not come true. There is no gurarantee ? 

The earnings calendar is not like a regular  calendar. The earnings calendar depends on RV expansion.