SteadyOptions is an options trading forum where you can find solutions from top options traders. TRY IT FREE!

We’ve all been there… researching options strategies and unable to find the answers we’re looking for. SteadyOptions has your solution.

History is a Great Teacher


“The only thing new in the world is the history you don’t know.” -Winston Churchill. 

 

“It is critical to understand human nature if you want to succeed at investing. Basing their decisions on short-term results is in fact the biggest mistake investors make.” - Jim O’Shaughnessy

 

Below is historical data for the Dimensional Equity Balanced Strategy Index since 1970. All figures are annualized.

 

  • Average 12 months: 14.74%
  • Best 12 months: 83.06%
  • Worst 12 months: -51.27%

Don't put your emergency fund in stocks.

 

  • Average 3 years: 13.98%
  • Best 3 years: 38.27%
  • Worst 3 years: -19.01%

The average investor thinks 3 years is a long time.

 

  • Average 5 years: 13.96%
  • Best 5 years: 34.18%
  • Worst 5 years: -5.55%

The average investor thinks 5 years is a really long time.

 

  • Average 10 years: 14.38%
  • Best 10 years: 24.61%
  • Worst 10 years: 3.13%

The average investor thinks 10 years is an eternity, yet history shows us that the difference between best and worse case scenarios can be in excess of 20% per year

 

  • Average 20 years: 13.31%
  • Best 20 years: 20.71%
  • Worst 20 years: 8.26%
  • Best 20 years for risk-free 1 month T-bills: 7.73%

At this horizon, the worst 20 year period for the equity index is greater than the best 20 year period for T-bills. But only those with the education, patience, and discipline to endure short term volatility will earn market returns.

 

Global equities would have produced large positive returns, on average, since 1970. But by definition, half of the time returns are below average over any particular time period.  Also, in the short term, we see that returns can be substantially negative. This is why the positive average returns of equities in excess of risk free T-bills is known as a risk premium. Investors must be thoughtful about their time horizons and their willingness to take risks when investing. Historical outcomes over various time horizons are great starting points for determining how much equity risk belongs in a portfolio to suit investment objectives.

 

Jesse Blom is a licensed investment advisor and Vice President of Lorintine Capital, LP. He provides investment advice to clients all over the United States and around the world. Jesse has been in financial services since 2008 and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional. Working with a CFP® professional represents the highest standard of financial planning advice. Jesse has a Bachelor of Science in Finance from Oral Roberts University. Jesse manages the Steady Momentum service, and regularly incorporates options into client portfolios.  

What Is SteadyOptions?

Full Trading Plan

Complete Portfolio Approach

Diversified Options Strategies

Exclusive Community Forum

Steady And Consistent Gains

High Quality Education

Risk Management, Portfolio Size

Performance based on real fills

Try It Free

Non-directional Options Strategies

10-15 trade Ideas Per Month

Targets 5-7% Monthly Net Return

Visit our Education Center

Recent Articles

Articles

  • Discount Stock Shopping In High Volatility Markets

    The COVID-19 pandemic has rocked markets over the past month. The fear of the virus, the fear of the impact on global economics from the mitigation taken on by governments, and, finally, the fear of "what’s next" has propelled the VIX.

    By Drew Hilleshiem,

    • 0 comments
    • 293 views
  • The Fallacy of Market Timing

    The headlines say it all. "The worst day since the financial crisis". "Markets in turmoil". And today was "Stock markets post best day in years as governments fight coronavirus with cash". Could anyone predict the crash? And can anyone tell us where we are headed next week/month/year? Is it possible to call the tops and the bottoms?

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 269 views
  • Long Option Risks

    Among all options, the most easily calculated payoffs are those for long options. But there remains a great misunderstanding, even among experienced option traders. This must be clarified before moving forward. The misunderstanding is often seen expressed online and in the literature: “75% of long options expire worthless.”

    By Michael C. Thomsett,

    • 0 comments
    • 298 views
  • Option Payoff Probability

    Many options analyses focus on profit, loss and breakeven. These show what occurs on expiration day, assuming the option remains open to that point. But this is not realistic. Most options are closed or exercised before expiration, is calculation of how probable a payoff is going to be, how likely the loss, or the exact neutral outcome (breakeven), are all unrealistic.

    By Michael C. Thomsett,

    • 0 comments
    • 410 views
  • Value of Trend Following During Periods of Market Volatility

    Our trend following system looks at two things when planning a position. The first piece is obviously the direction of the trend.  Does the system signal up or down?  The second piece of a position plan is how much risk we are going to take. 

    By RapperT,

    • 1 comment
    • 951 views
  • Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic Value

    A lot is written about intrinsic value, but how does it work and what does it mean? The fact is, intrinsic value is an estimate of how future premium levels will change. It is base don current volatility and a set of assumptions. In dividing premium into its component parts, most descriptions deal with intrinsic and time value.

    By Michael C. Thomsett,

    • 0 comments
    • 481 views
  • McDonald's, Not A Shelter in the Coming Storm

    The amount of time and effort that investors spend assessing the risks versus the potential returns of their portfolio should shift as the economy and markets cycle over time. For example, when an economic recovery finally breaks the grip of a recession, and asset prices and valuations have fallen to average or below-average levels, price and economic risks are greatly diminished.

    By Michael Lebowitz,

    • 0 comments
    • 435 views
  • Risk Depends On Your Time Horizon

    Those who are nearing retirement and those who have recently retired represent the majority of my financial planning and investment advisory client base. One of the most common mistakes I hear from these types of individuals is something similar to “I no longer have enough time for the market to come back.”

    By Jesse,

    • 0 comments
    • 365 views
  • Estimating Gamma for Calls or Puts

    In a recent article, the details for estimate Delta were explained. This article deals with estimates of Gamma, which is denoted with the Greek symbol Γ. This calculation measures the rate of change in Delta and is summarized in percentage form. It is alternatively called the option’s curvature.

     

    By Michael C. Thomsett,

    • 0 comments
    • 725 views
  • Why Options Traders Fail?

    In the last 8 years, I trained thousands of options traders. I have seen many success stories, but also a lot of failures. There are a lot of reasons why many options traders fail. Here are the most common reasons, courtesy of our good friend and veteran options trader Gavin McMaster

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 1,254 views

  Report Article

We want to hear from you!


There are no comments to display.



Your content will need to be approved by a moderator

Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

Options Trading Blogs Expertido