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Showing content with the highest reputation on 01/31/2021 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    Frank, here are my TM trades just for 14-day Pre-Earnings Diagonals since March 2019. TradeMachine shows these if the stock is over its 50-day moving average. The backtester sells a 30-delta 7-day call and buys a 50-delta 14-day call. In some cases where weeklies don't exist it does this with monthly positions instead. I didn't take every trade suggested by TM, only where the stock hadn't started to rocket up yet before earnings and options liquidity looked good. So the chart had to look close to flat for the prior trading days. Since this was a test, positions are on the small side, that is a few hundred dollars per diagonal. Total trades were 88 of which 64 were winners, or roughly 3 out of 4. Total invested for the 88 trades was $28,505 with a total profit of $1,846. Average position cost was $324 with an average return per trade of 6.5%, or $21, holding the trade for around a week before the position is closed. Biggest loss was $-403 and biggest winner was $327. My conclusion is that, so far, this type of trade is consistently profitable. It's tempting to hold the long 14-day call past the expiration of the 7-day short call if the latter expired worthless and the stock has gone down a bit, but this doesn't tend to help you. If the position isn't profitable after a week, just close the whole thing.
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