Re the recent discussions of trading results of TM strategies.
I have been trading pre earnings momentum calls for the past 6 months. Mostly 14 days pre earnings (with some 7 and 3 days). The strategy involved buying a 30 or 40 delta call for 14 or 30 day expiry and exiting just pre earnings.
I have restricted transactions to cases showing better than 6/2 winning records for the past 2 years with better than 20% average returns. As well, I set exit criteria acording to best results in backtesting, although not always following through-usually to my regret.
There were 90 trades during this period, of which 58 were profitable and 32 loses. The average return was about 35% with a large variance . Several trades generated over 200% in profit and almost 100% losses. Because of the risk, positions were relatively small, particularly as market movements lead to positively correlated results between trades over any short period.
In total ,over the past 6 months the profitable trades generated $21,400 profit and the losing trades generated $6500 in losses on a total of $43,200 at risk.
I am very happy with the performance of the strategy. HOWEVER, the period covered was clearly a bull market, so may not be very repreresentative of the longer term results and risks.