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Showing content with the highest reputation on 05/14/2020 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    Oh look the Monday morning quarterback. Death rate of the 50-60 range is 1.3% for men its about twice as high. So that would kill 1 in 50 men in that age category. So thats 200,000 dead men in that age category in the US - not that I am taking this personally because I am 53 or anything. Even bigger problem is that these 200,000 and in fact a multiple will require hospital care. There are currently 1,000,000 staffed hospital beds in the US - not even going into the ICU beds question - do you see a problem already? Sweden has 10M people in a very sparsely populated country with nowhere near the density of population even in its couple of bigger cities. Its also out of the way of major trade and traffic lanes and isolated by sea and unpopulated land areas. The population is also applying a level of self-discipline that is quite unlikely to be found in the US.The so called herd immunity is completely based on models and not on actual testing. They believe that for every confirmed case they have 75 unconfirmed ones but there is zero proof of that. in fact a more likely factor is 15 which is the normal transmission rate without measures. But even with the 75 factor they arrive at 23% immunised population in Stockholm (not elsewhere) which is not enough to be termed real herd immunity. I agree that the numbers touted of 60% are exaggerated but 35% (one third) really is a minimum. They are still by the most optimistic predictions 50% away from that by MID MAY. In the mean time they are accepting outsized death numbers in the higher age categories starting at 50. A second wave is unavoidable but prior experience shows that with measures in place you can contain it by isolating the cases. Which is what was successful in the predecessor MERS SARS cases but which this time around slipped out of our control. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/29/us-responses-1918-flu-pandemic-offer-stark-lessons-coronavirus-now You might want to read that as real experience of what can and cannot be done. Herd immunity is a theoretical concept that does not take into account factors as health care and systemic stress from the deaths and ill people. Already now health care workers are struggling to stay healthy AND work double shifts to deal with the emergency. I agree that we should relax the measures as soon as possible but Sweden and New Zealand's example are about as logical as comparing the Swedish and New Zealand Stock Exchange to Nasdaq and NYSE.
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