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Showing content with the highest reputation on 08/14/18 in all areas

  1. This pervasive statement that gets thrown around about "90% of options expiring worthless" is so wrong, on so many different levels. We can go down a long list of all of the reasons why it is totally meaningless. But, it is a LONG list. For example...just from an "option buyer" point of view, the question really should be "where did the option travel to throughout it's lifetime.?" It may have traded $2, then .10 , then $8, then .50, then $17 and expire worthless. Who knows how many options buyers could have bought it for $2, and sold it for $8 during it's lifetime, with the knowledge that it is a wasting asset, and one should be out of it before the heaviest time erosion starts to hit. That is just one, of dozens, of reasons that could be given. Then there is the whole other dimension of more "sophisticated" traders, who buy one option, and sell another against , as a spread, etc. The list goes on, and on... They are SO irresponsible in all of their presentations, because they are approaching it from a "marketing" perspective, rather than an educational one. And, worst of all, they are appealing to a group of people, who are mostly novices, and appealing to that desire of wanting to make easy money. It "sounds" so good to these people but, out of everything they present, it is just "theoretical" ideas, attempting to be backed up by "curve fitted" back tests. They never actually go through a systematic, step by step, explanation, of a "coherent" strategy. Just nice sounding ideas, which do not work, in the long run, and probably even in the short run.
    2 points
  2. Something everyone should frame and put above their PC when trading - thing is that looking for patterns is a fundamental part of human nature. It is probably the prime evolutionary edge that put humans where they are on this planet. Hence we all have a tendency to look for patterns and we are very good at it - in fact we can see patterns in pure chaos (e.g. the Rorschach blot test or indeed the stockmarket). The attraction of a simple pattern based rule like "Sell premium" is that its easy to understand and satisfies a very deep seated psychological need in us. Accepting that for 99%+ the stockmarket is a walk in the park is counter-intuitive to almost everybody, show a technical analyst a chart generated by a random number function and they will show you resistance patterns and supports - its even harder for people to let go of a pattern that was once successful but due to change of circumstances or arbitrage stops being successful. I only came across Sosnoff earlier this year - at first I was intrigued and amused - some of his stuff is quite entertaining. However when you look at their 'remedies for trades gone bad' is when you realise they are a lethal danger. Inevitably they recommend sticking to the bad trade and for Iron Condors for example reducing them eventually to an Iron Fly practically locking in losses at every step and making the chances of breaking even let alone profit smaller and smaller. In an exchange with them over that they stubbornly stuck to the POV that whilst my remark was valid sticking with the strategy for better or worse was the way to do things. Thats where I checked out.
    2 points
  3. @poseidolginko already done with the newest update. Have fun!
    1 point
  4. The idea of selling options based on the premises that "90% of options expire worthless, so lets sell them. Lets be the house" sounds compelling to new traders - until they have few big losses and start to realize that things are more complicated. After being burned countless times, tastytrade continue recommending selling options before earnings on high flying stocks. Just ask those who did it before last FB earnings - Lessons From Facebook Earnings Disaster. Try to repair this one after it lost 10 times all previous wins worth. So many people follow Tom Sosnoff because of his charisma - they simply don't realize how risky and dangerous his methods are.
    1 point
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