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Showing content with the highest reputation on 06/17/17 in all areas

  1. @RapperTBTW, the tool seems to be using the wrong date for NKE Dec 2016 earnings. The actual earnings data was 12/20, but the tool thinks it was later. Net result is that the short strangle was using options expiring after earnings, which is not how the trade is designed to work. This is now the 2nd time I've seen incorrect earnings dates being used (AMZN was the other case).
    1 point
  2. I think it's more useful when you have an idea and want to backtest that specific idea to see if it works or not. For example, I've been interested in selling credit spreads against stocks I like. I've been able to use the tool to explore that idea and find the best deltas, profit targets and days to expiry that would have worked well in the past. From there I took the results and did further manual backtesting on things the tool doesn't support, like seeing what happens when I only sell premium on higher IV days, stuff like that. I recently did several trades based on that work and have been very happy with the results. It was a huge time saver in terms of doing the research and testing to make sure my idea was sound enough to give me the confidence to start trading it. Finding a random trade that did well on a single stock 12 times over the last three years doesn't really tell you anything I don't think. However, if a setup is profitable over many different stocks, then maybe there's something there.
    1 point
  3. @Ophir GottliebThank you for the responsiveness on this, I wholeheartedly agree that being a couple of cents too optimistic is much better than being way off target. Also, please don't take my problem reports the wrong way - I am big on details so when I see things in the trade details that look wrong or don't make sense I want to call them out. I like the simplicity and ease of use of the tool and am just trying to help work out the kinks and make it better.
    1 point
  4. Yep. Exactly what we have in the longer tutorial. A trader needs to toggle between 0 and 1 based on timing of earnings.
    1 point
  5. I don't see how this is curve fitting. When we do our earnings trades, don't we do the same? We look at Dustin charts and select the best day to enter. For example, HD straddle historically produced the best results if entered 2-3 trading days before earnings. And it worked for us very well most of the time. I think the tool provided a starting point to do the research. It does not guarantee results, it shows probabilities. To me, the ability to play with parameters in terms of when to enter, which deltas to use etc. is very powerful, and I stand behind my endorsement.
    1 point
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