I think your range of profitability pretty much matches the implied move, which is what I would expect. However, your max gain of 5.00 seems high, assuming you close the day after earnings announcement. Here is how I would analyze the post-earnings prices: IBM's options normally have IV of about 17.5%, so post earnings I would expect the Aug monthlies to have IV of 17.5% and the soon to expire weeklies still a big higher, say 20%. Plugging these values into an option price calculator, I'd expect the day after earnings ATM call calendar to be worth about 1.90 if stock price is right at the strike - so with your triple structure, I think the max next day profit is closer to $3.00 if IBM stock price is right at your middle strike (and around $4.00 if its near your middle strike on short leg expiration day). This would still represent a very nice gain. However, the key to me for these hold through earnings calendars is stocks that have a history of staying within the implied move - and with IBM over the last few years is has had quite few out-sized moves, so its more of a gamble than its track record of staying within the implied this cycle.