GMCR dropped over 8% today after the announcement of their new KOLD machine did not exactly impress anyone. So, I wanted to construct a short term trade to benefit from some more downside over the next few weeks. Because a big drop is possible IMO I wanted a trade that will not lose if the drop is bigger than I expect (so I ruled out flies and calendars) and one that I can easily adjust if I'm wrong and GMCR starts to rise. I decided on using a diagonal trade where with GMCR around 94.50 this afternoon I bought the May29 94 put and sold the May22 93 put for a debit of 0.92.
Best case is if GMCR drifts down a few more dollars over the next week, and then I'll close the trade as it stands late next week. Could be around a 100% profit if its near 93 at the end of next week.
If the bottom falls out and GMCR drops a lot, then my diagonal will likely be worth a few cents over 1.00 - and since I paid 0.92 for it, then I'll still make a modest profit.
If I'm wrong and GMCR starts to rise then I'll roll my short 93 put to the 94 put turning the trade into a 94 call calendar.
We'll see how it plays out. I think the only way I'll lose big is if GMCR stock price spike up significantly.