First, selling on Thursday won't necessarily get you more than on Friday -- it completely depends on what the price of GLD does. For instance, if GLD was right at 155 on Thursday we might get .55 or so (ball park) but if GLD were to jump to 157 or Friday, then you would probably get double that. Whereas if GLD stayed the same or went down you would get less. Gamma plays a HUGE role in the weekly roll.
Your analysis is correct, assuming GLD stays the same on Thursday and Friday. And it's one I go through. So if our current weekly was worth .10 on Thursday and the next weeks 158 was worth .55 on Thursday, we'd be looking at a credit of .45.
Then we just look at the theta, let's say its .05 on this weekly and .02 on the next weekly. Theoretically, with no price movements, we'd be looking at .05 and .53, or a credit of .48. Therefore waiting until Friday would be better. Unfortunately, it's not quite that simple because the odds of the price staying the exact same day to day is about nil.
This is where I roll technical analysis in (which is a fancy way of saying I like to pretend it improves my chances of guessing the direction GLD will move in one day). If I see a strong trend up or down, over a two day period, then I'll let that weigh in my decision. For instance, if my indicators seem to say price is going up, I'll wait until Friday to roll, if they are saying down, I'd roll right on Thursday. If I can't get a read at all, and I have no clue, then I typically roll on Thursday to get the most TV.
Hope thats clear, if not, just shoot me a message.