SteadyOptions is an options trading forum where you can find solutions from top options traders. TRY IT FREE!

We’ve all been there… researching options strategies and unable to find the answers we’re looking for. SteadyOptions has your solution.

The Best Chart I’ve Seen in 2020


The best visual aids for learning are often very simple. The chart in this article was created by Paul Merriman, using data from Dimensional Fund Advisors. I primarily use Dimensional Funds in building portfolios for my clients. There are many takeaways from this chart, and I’d like to share a few thoughts that stick out most to me.

But first, a few definitions:

  • “SCB”: Small Cap Blend. This represents an index of US small cap stocks
  • “SCV”: Small Cap Value. This represents an index of US small cap value stocks
  • “LCV”: Large Cap Value. This represents an index of US large cap value stocks
  • “4-Fund Combo”: Equal weight S&P 500, LCV, SCB, and SCV

image.png

 

Academic theory suggests that markets are highly efficient at pricing asset classes so that risk and reward are related. When an asset class has more risk, it should also have a higher expected return. Otherwise why take the risk? Specifically, from lowest risk/reward to highest:

  • 1-month T-bills (cash)…lowest risk, lowest expected return
  • Long term government bonds
  • Large cap stocks (S&P 500)
  • Large cap value stocks
  • Small cap stocks
  • Small cap value stocks…highest risk, highest expected return

We see that the historical data matches the theory over the entire period. But certainly not over every 15-year period, which should be expected…otherwise there wouldn’t be risk if we knew with certainty that holding for 15 years would automatically produce a relative outcome of one asset classes versus another. Therefore, there is no period long enough where we can be certain of any outcome in markets. And for this reason, every investor must consider their own personal ability, willingness, and need to take risk. This is true not only for how much a portfolio should be in stocks vs. bonds, but also how much of that equity allocation should consist of small cap and value stocks. The right portfolio is the one that has the highest probability of meeting your long-term return objectives(one that is well diversified) and is also one that you can stick with.

 

The diversification of the 4-fund combo never gives you the best outcome, which is a price to pay for also avoiding the worst outcome that you’re more likely concerned about. The period of 1960-1974 stands out, a period of 15 years when the popular S&P 500 index underperformed totally riskless 1-month T-bills (along with SCB & LT Gov Bonds). The 4-fund combo, due to the performance of value stocks, still produced a risk premium over T-bills.

Over the long-term, which is the only period an equity investor should care about, diversification can reduce worst case scenarios. Yet it’s interesting that when I review the portfolios of new clients and prospects, it’s extremely rare to find any allocation at all to small cap value stocks. Whether that portfolio was built with the help of an advisor or not hasn’t seemed to matter, indicating that lack of awareness of the historical data is the likely explanation. I’ve written extensively in
other articles about the higher expected returns of small and value stocks, as this has been known for at least 30 years.

 

The last point I’ll make is that the same chart created with shorter periods, such as 1/5/10 year periods, has much more random outcomes. Again, this would be expected, and it’s why increasing your awareness of the range of potential outcomes over various time periods is one of the best things you can do to have proper expectations. My recent articles on market volatility digs deeper into this topic.

 

Conclusion

 

We should all attempt to judge the quality of every decision we make in our lives not solely based upon the after the fact outcome but based on the information we had available at the time of making the decision.  With investments, this is especially true as we can only have historical data and academic theory to guide us. The science of investing is not like other forms of science where laws exist creating certainty of cause and effect outcomes. This means we should focus our attention on the things we can control such as diversification, asset allocation, and rebalancing. Once we’ve built our portfolios according to these principles, we can relax knowing that we’ve maximized our probability of having a successful investment experience.

 

Jesse Blom is a licensed investment advisor and Vice President of Lorintine Capital, LP. He provides investment advice to clients all over the United States and around the world. Jesse has been in financial services since 2008 and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional. Working with a CFP® professional represents the highest standard of financial planning advice. Jesse has a Bachelor of Science in Finance from Oral Roberts University. Jesse manages the Steady Momentum service.

 

Related articles

 

What Is SteadyOptions?

Full Trading Plan

Complete Portfolio Approach

Diversified Options Strategies

Exclusive Community Forum

Steady And Consistent Gains

High Quality Education

Risk Management, Portfolio Size

Performance based on real fills

Try It Free

Non-directional Options Strategies

10-15 trade Ideas Per Month

Targets 5-7% Monthly Net Return

Visit our Education Center

Recent Articles

Articles

  • Steady Futures 2021 Year In Review

    Steady Futures launched in mid-2019 giving us approximately 2.5 years of performance data.  We look at our performance on an absolute basis based on a 50k portfolio size and a relative basis versus the SocGen Trend Index

    By RapperT,

    • 8 comments
    • 599 views
  • How to Trade Cryptocurrency: A Guide for Beginners

    Trading is a core economic concept that includes the purchase and sale of assets, be it products or services, where the buyer compensates the price to the seller. In other circumstances, trading partners may want to exchange goods and other services.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 479 views
  • The Lessons in Business We Can Apply to Investing

    While running a business and investing are two very different things, there are a number of parallels that apply to both. If you are looking to start trading and you are running a business, or vice-versa, there are some lessons that you can carry from one to the other.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 691 views
  • 3 Methods To Invest as a Self-Employed

    As we all think about investing as a way to keep ourselves financially afloat, there is one group of people that the whole idea of trading and investing may seem more of a risk than normal. Self-employed people, who have to run their own business, trade as themselves, and essentially live a feast or famine lifestyle, could find themselves looking to invest or start trading but fall at the first hurdle because they do not have enough money or they are not able to put up with the risk. 

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 691 views
  • Steady PutWrite 2021 Year In Review

    Steady PutWrite (SPW) launched in early 2019, so we now have close to three years of performance to evaluate on both an absolute basis and relative to the strategy’s benchmark, PUTW (WisdomTree CBOE S&P 500 PutWrite Strategy Fund). 

    By Jesse,

    • 0 comments
    • 771 views
  • SteadyOptions 2021 Year In Review

    2021 marks our 10th year as a public trading service. It was our best year since inception. We closed 192 winners out of 270 trades (71.1% winning ratio). Our model portfolio produced 201.0% compounded gain on the whole account based on 10% allocation per trade. We had only one losing month in 2021. 

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 1,501 views
  • Results of Trading Industry Survey

    Earlier today I distributed a press release with the results from the Trading Industry Survey we conducted in November. First off, I want to thank all of you who took the time to complete the survey. I greatly appreciate your participation and, as you’ll soon see, the results were intriguing.

    By Jared Tendler,

    • 0 comments
    • 1,704 views
  • Questions to Ask Yourself Before You Start Investing

    Everyone has heard the success stories of people making tons of money from investments, retiring early, and living a life of luxury. But, before you start tying up all your cash in investments, it is crucial to understand more about what is involved.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 1,881 views
  • How To Use Tech To Improve Your Stock Trading

    Technology is undoubtedly helpful in many aspects, and stock trading is no exception. Over the years, the stock trading market has experienced improvements as a result of leveraging technology. For instance, stock traders can have faster access to more comprehensive data to help them make a more informed decision.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 1,926 views
  • Exploiting Earnings Associated Rising Volatility

    It was brought to my attention that Seeking Alpha now restricts the number of articles people can read for free, so I will reprint few of the key articles I wrote for SA. This one was my fist article, written in 2011, and it gives an introduction of the earnings straddle strategy that we have been using for the last 10 years with great success.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 2,232 views

  Report Article

We want to hear from you!


There are no comments to display.



Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account. It's easy and free!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

Options Trading Blogs Expertido