SteadyOptions is an options trading forum where you can find solutions from top options traders. TRY IT FREE!

We’ve all been there… researching options strategies and unable to find the answers we’re looking for. SteadyOptions has your solution.

How We Lost 60% on SPX calendar


Experienced traders know that nothing teaches you more than losing trades. We all would like all our trades to be winners, but we know this is not possible. We know some of the trades will be losers (at least I know that, I hope you don't expect all your trades to be winners). And the bigger the loss, the more you learn. Today I would like to dissect our biggest loser in the last 2 years.

This year's sideways market has been very kind to calendar spread trades.We booked few very nice winners with SPX and RUT calendar spreads. When we opened another SPX calendar spread on August 5, I expected another nice winner. But the market had very different plans.

 

The strike was 2100, which was right in the middle of the range for the big part of the year.

 

Last Thursday, August 20 SPX was at 2061, and the trade was still in decent shape, down only 8%:

 

3e29f915f464bed7560cae03f859d375.png

 

However, as the selloff accelerated towards the end of the day, the trade was down around 20-25%.

 

At this point I considered different adjustment options but didn't find an efficient and inexpensive hedge. So my plan was just to close the trade around 30% loss. I tested different adjustments and didn't find them too efficient, so considering the fact that we also had a butterfly trade that was expected to offset the loss, it was an acceptable result to me.

 

However, SPX really collapsed at the last hour on Thursday, and the trade went through the stop loss in matter of minutes. I assume that most members wouldn't have time to act on the alert sent 5-10 minutes before the close. Spreads also became very wide, and I doubt we could close it anywhere near the mid. On Friday SPX gaped down another 20 points and the trade was down over 50%. By the end of the day the loss was 70%+.

 

f0f7ae4b641231f350746a9f931bfac5.png

 

We used yesterday's rally to reduce the loss and closed the trade for 60% loss.

 

To put things in perspective, SPX went down 130 points in 3 trading days. Last time it happened was 2011.

 

So what could we do differently?

 

In the wise words of one of our mentors, Dan Sheridan, "just buy a stinking put!" Dan survived on the floor of the CBOE trading options for over two decades, so he's experienced it.

 

Lets see how things would be different with the put.

 

When SPX went through our adjustment point, we could buy the 1750 put for just 0.75. This is how the P/L chart would look like with the put:

 

92f5f144bb5d5c63f2e0c2756dc12a87.png

 

As we can see, the chart looks much "smoother". But even more important, it significantly increases the vega, which helps in case SPX continues down and volatility increases.

 

Fast forward to Friday morning:

 

e198037a19d48fa33702409dc1c8a277.png

 

That's right. Instead of being down 50%+, we would be actually UP 41%.

 

So what can we learn from this trade?

 

The most important thing is "don't assume anything". Gaps happen and should be taken into consideration. If the market went down 60 points and became oversold, it doesn't mean it cannot go lower. Don't let your opinions impact your risk management. When in doubt, cut the loss or "just buy a stinking put!"

 

This trade emphasizes once again the importance of position sizing. In our model portfolio, we recommend allocating 10% per trade. Which means that this trade had a 6% negative impact on the overall portfolio. Not pleasant but not catastrophic and allows us to leave another day. After closing 9 consecutive winners in August, we are still having a great month, while most major indexes are significantly down.

 

Related posts:

 

How We Made 23% on $QIHU Straddle in 4 Hours
How Position Sizing Impacts Your Returns
How we trade calendar spreads

 

We invite you to join us and see how we manage our portfolio of non-directional strategies.

 

Start Your Free Trial

What Is SteadyOptions?

Full Trading Plan

Complete Portfolio Approach

Diversified Options Strategies

Exclusive Community Forum

Steady And Consistent Gains

High Quality Education

Risk Management, Portfolio Size

Performance based on real fills

Try It Free

Non-directional Options Strategies

10-15 trade Ideas Per Month

Targets 5-7% Monthly Net Return

Visit our Education Center

Recent Articles

Articles

  • Important Tips For First Time Currency Traders

    Diversifying your portfolio is important for all investors, and currency investments are a great way to do that. However, there are a lot of misconceptions and common mistakes that first time currency investors make, and this leads to big losses.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 7 views
  • Iron Condors or Short Strangles?

    In my early option trading days, I favored selling iron condors over selling strangles. I thought that selling a strangle was too risky because the potential loss was “undefined”. I thought this made sense because this is what I’d hear from other people that were more experienced than I was.

    By Jesse,

    • 0 comments
    • 1,095 views
  • How To Be A Successful Day Trader From Home

    The good news is that if trading is your passion, then it’s possible to become a successful day trader and work from home. However, it’s not as easy as setting up shop and jumping online. There are specific steps and processes you need to have in place if you’re going to be able to make a living for yourself and have a bright career and future.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 127 views
  • 3 Key Pieces Of Advice For New Traders

    These days, everyone claims to be an ‘expert’ on absolutely everything. Apparently, it only takes having a Twitter account to be a seasoned expert on any given subject; all in all, the Internet is full of nonsense. It’s becoming harder and harder to find legitimate answers amongst the quagmire of false information online.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 198 views
  • Why New Traders Fail

    Our first advice to new traders is: "Learn First, Trade Later". The markets will always be there, but if you start trading without proper fundamentals, your capital will be gone very fast. The barrier to enter trading is so low today, commissions are near zero, and the whole trading game looks very promising.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 397 views
  • Lumpy Dividends and Options

    Dividend payments, like oatmeal, may be smooth or lumpy. Smooth dividends are predictable, usually once per quarter. It is easy for options traders to believe these dividends are guaranteed, because they usually continue uninterrupted quarter after quarter. This also makes it easy to predict total return over a longer time span.

    By Michael C. Thomsett,

    • 0 comments
    • 373 views
  • Coming to Peace With Market Volatility: Part II

    On April 18th I wrote part I of this article, Coming to Peace With Market Volatility. I showed how the US equity market risk premium, defined as the annual average return of the Total Market minus the return of one-month US Treasury Bills, was a large 8.37% per year from 1950-2019. That’s the good news.

    By Jesse,

    • 0 comments
    • 407 views
  • Ratio Calendar Spreads

    The ratio calendar spread is well-known to some, but for others the risk/reward aspects are not well understood. One way to cover a short position is to own 100 shares of the underlying stock. Another, more creative way is to sell a shorter-term expiration position and buy a longer-term position.

    By Michael C. Thomsett,

    • 0 comments
    • 806 views
  • Studies Vs. Real Trading

    "Who you gonna believe, me or your lying eyes?" Our members and readers know that buying pre earnings straddles has been one of our favorite strategies that produced consistent gains in the last 8 years with very low risk. Yet there is a significant number of studies showing that this strategy has a negative expectation. 

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 762 views
  • Should You Hedge or Diversify?

    Using the most popular S&P 500 ETF (SPY) to represent the US stock market, this article will look at different ways to manage equity market risk using historical ETF and options data from ORATS Wheel since 2007. We will analyze the following unhedged, hedged and allocation choices:

    By Jesse,

    • 11 comments
    • 1,127 views

  Report Article

We want to hear from you!




Your content will need to be approved by a moderator

Guest
You are commenting as a guest. If you have an account, please sign in.
Add a comment...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

Options Trading Blogs Expertido