SteadyOptions is an options trading forum where you can find solutions from top options traders. Join Us!

We’ve all been there… researching options strategies and unable to find the answers we’re looking for. SteadyOptions has your solution.

How Victor Niederhoffer Blew Up - Twice


In one of my previous articles, I described a hedge fund manager called Karen the "SuperTrader". She was featured few times by tastytrade as "one of the most successful and fascinating traders". Tom Sosnoff admitted that he "admires" her. What Sosnoff fails to mention time after time is the amount of risk Karen is taking, compared to her returns.

This is a critical issue that many traders don't fully understand.

To understand the real risk this lady is taking, I would like you to take a look at Victor Niederhoffer. This guy had one of the best track records in the hedge fund industry, compounding 30% gains for 20 years. Yet, he blew up spectacularly in 1997 and 2007. Not once but twice.

 

Are you Aware of Black Swan Risk?

 

This is how Malcolm Gladwell describes what happened in 1997:

 

"A year after Nassim Taleb came to visit him, Victor Niederhoffer blew up. He sold a very large number of options on the S. & P. index, taking millions of dollars from other traders in exchange for promising to buy a basket of stocks from them at current prices, if the market ever fell. It was an unhedged bet, or what was called on Wall Street a “naked put,” meaning that he bet everyone on one outcome: he bet in favor of the large probability of making a small amount of money, and against the small probability of losing a large amount of money-and he lost. On October 27, 1997, the market plummeted eight per cent, and all of the many, many people who had bought those options from Niederhoffer came calling all at once, demanding that he buy back their stocks at pre-crash prices. He ran through a hundred and thirty million dollars — his cash reserves, his savings, his other stocks — and when his broker came and asked for still more he didn’t have it. In a day, one of the most successful hedge funds in America was wiped out. Niederhoffer had to shut down his firm. He had to mortgage his house. He had to borrow money from his children. He had to call Sotheby’s and sell his prized silver collection.

 

A month or so before he blew up, Taleb had dinner with Niederhoffer at a restaurant in Westport, and Niederhoffer told him that he had been selling naked puts. You can imagine the two of them across the table from each other, Niederhoffer explaining that his bet was an acceptable risk, that the odds of the market going down so heavily that he would be wiped out were minuscule, and Taleb listening and shaking his head, and thinking about black swans. “I was depressed when I left him,” Taleb said. “Here is a guy who, whatever he wants to do when he wakes up in the morning, he ends up better than anyone else. Whatever he wakes up in the morning and decides to do, he did better than anyone else. I was talking to my hero . . .” This was the reason Taleb didn’t want to be Niederhoffer when Niederhoffer was at his height — the reason he didn’t want the silver and the house and the tennis matches with George Soros. He could see all too clearly where it all might end up. In his mind’s eye, he could envision Niederhoffer borrowing money from his children, and selling off his silver, and talking in a hollow voice about letting down his friends, and Taleb did not know if he had the strength to live with that possibility. Unlike Niederhoffer, Taleb never thought he was invincible. You couldn’t if you had watched your homeland blow up, and had been the one person in a hundred thousand who gets throat cancer, and so for Taleb there was never any alternative to the painful process of insuring himself against catastrophe.

 

Last fall, Niederhoffer sold a large number of options, betting that the markets would be quiet, and they were, until out of nowhere two planes crashed into the World Trade Center. “I was exposed. It was nip and tuck.” Niederhoffer shook his head, because there was no way to have anticipated September 11th. “That was a totally unexpected event.”

 

Well, guess what - unexpected events happen. More often than you can imagine.

 

saupload_SP_thumb1.jpg


The market bottomed right after Niederhoffer was margin called. By November, the market was back near highs. His 830 puts went on to expire worthless - meaning his trade, had he been able to hold on, turned out to be profitable.


But his leverage forced his liquidation. He was oversized and couldn't ride the trade out.


Niederhoffer had shorted so many puts that a run-of-the-mill two-day market selloff sent him out on a stretcher.


If he had sized the trade correctly, he would have survived the ride and took home a small profit. But the guy was playing on tilt, got greedy, maybe a bit arrogant, and lost all of his client's money.
 

Karen is managing over 300 million dollars now. Her annual returns are in a 25-30% range. Are those good returns, based on the risk she takes?

 

Not in my opinion. I believe that betting 300 million dollars on naked options is a disaster waiting to happen. I'm sure that most of her investors are not aware of the huge risks she is taking. Niederhoffer's story should be a good lesson, but for most people, it isn't. Unfortunately, people desperately want to believe there is a way to make money with no or little risk.

 

Personally, I have hard time to understand why Sosnoff is promoting those strategies. But this is a different story.

As a side note, this article is not an attempt to bash tastytrade. It is an attempt to show a different side of the coin and point out some historical cases. If we don't learn from history, we are doomed to repeat it. tastytrade advocates selling premium based on "high IV percentile". They ignore the fact that IV is usually high for a reason. Personally, I consider selling naked options before earnings on a high flying stocks like NFLX, AMZN, ULTA, TSLA etc. as a very high risk trading. tastytrade followers consider those trades safe and conservative. Matter of point of view I guess.

Some tastytrade followers argued that PUT Write index performed better than SPX. And it is true. But those are completely different strategies. The original purpose of PUT Write index (or any naked put strategy) is to buy stock at a discount and reduce risk. As long as you sell the same number of contracts as the number of shares you are willing to own, you should be fine, and in many cases to outperform the underlying stock or index. The problem with Karen Supertrader and Niederhoffer was that they used too much leverage. They sold those naked options just to collect premium. Same is true when you sell strangles before earnings.

 

Related articles:

 

June 2016 update:  Turns out Karen is under investigation by the SEC. Read the details here and here.

What Is SteadyOptions?

Full Trading Plan

Complete Portfolio Approach

Diversified Options Strategies

Exclusive Community Forum

Steady And Consistent Gains

High Quality Education

Risk Management, Portfolio Size

Performance based on real fills

Subscribe

Non-directional Options Strategies

10-15 trade Ideas Per Month

Targets 5-7% Monthly Net Return

Visit our Education Center

Recent Articles

Articles

  • Long Straddle Options Strategy: The Ultimate Guide

    A long straddle is an options spread that involves the simultaneous purchase of a put and a call at the same strike price and expiration date. It’s a long-options, market-neutral strategy with limited risk and unlimited profit potential.

    By Pat Crawley,

    • 0 comments
    • 225 views
  • Ready to Invest? Here's How to Get Started with Online Trading

    I am struggling with making the decision to get started.  How much money do I need to be efficient and effective following your instructions?  What software and where to find it?  I could really benefit from extra income but I am also in a position where I can't really afford to lose much so there is some doubt/fear.  But, your information and attitude felt right to me so I reached out.

    By Karl Domm,

    • 0 comments
    • 191 views
  • The Importance  of Proactive Hedging in Options Trading

    Investing in the stock market can be a daunting task for even the most experienced investors. With the constant fluctuations and volatility of the market, it can be difficult to predict the future direction of the market. This is where options trading comes into play.

    By Karl Domm,

    • 0 comments
    • 296 views
  • The Silent Bank Run

    Long before Silicon Valley Bank failed, the banking sector was experiencing a silent bank run. Unlike the Great Depression, where lines of people clamoring for their money were blocks long, this silent bank run, as its name portends, has been out of sight until recently. There are a couple of reasons for this. 

    By Michael Lebowitz,

    • 0 comments
    • 225 views
  • High Probability Strategy: A Holy Grail of Options Trading?

    A lot of options traders consider a 90% probability strategy a Holy Grail of trading. After all, if you can win 90% of the time, you should be able to grow your account very quickly, right? Well, not only this is not necessarily true, but in fact, a Winning Ratio alone tells you nothing about your chances to be profitable.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 234 views
  • The 10 Best Options Trading Books

    Options trading can be challenging. I look at it as a journey, a long term investment, which is no different that graduating from University. And like University, you need to do a lot of reading, along with a lot of practicing. Fortunately, there are a lot of books out there that can be of tremendous help in this journey.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 351 views
  • OptionNET Explorer (ONE) Software

    OptionNET Explorer (ONE) is a complete options trading and analysis software platform that enables the user to backtest complex options trading strategies, analyze their results and monitor them in real-time, all from within a single, user friendly environment. 

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 337 views
  • Delta Hedging Your Options Strategies

    All traders begin with an introduction to call and put options.  However, it's rare (apart from short puts) that an experienced trader would use these contracts by themselves. Instead, we primarily trade options spreads. There are many benefits to spreads. The variety of spreads are targeted to various market criteria and market environments.

    By Drew Hilleshiem,

    • 0 comments
    • 9,283 views
  • What Happened to SFO Magazine (SFOMag)? Stocks, Options and Futures Magazine

    Remember SFO Magazine? Traders like Jack Schwager and Brett Steenbarger used to write for the publication before its swift shutdown in 2012. What happened. SFO (Stocks, Futures, and Options) magazine was a monthly financial magazine focused on trading and investing in stocks, futures, and options markets.

    By Pat Crawley,

    • 0 comments
    • 1,153 views
  • How to Use the Finest Covered Call Strategy

    Investing in the stock market can be a great way to grow your wealth over time. However, it can also be a volatile and unpredictable place, with sudden swings in stock prices causing anxiety for even the most experienced investors. This is where the covered call strategy comes in - a popular options trading strategy that can help manage portfolio volatility.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 859 views

  Report Article

We want to hear from you!


Well in the interview she honestly says that in 2011 flash crash, she was thinking of moving to mexico. 

Right that moment I said this is not for me or for any faint heart. 

 

There are many ways to make money in market. Choose the way that fits your personality not others personality.

 

When you are trading a hedge fund account, there is a warning label, past performance is not guarantee and you can loose 100% of investment.

 

Does her fund has this disclosure ?

I would never invest in a fund that has this kind of disclosure, so I  manage my own money as I will make sure I will not loose 100% for sure. 

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites

I can't find it, but three years ago or so, Jared Woodward had a twitter fight with Nassim Taleb, when Nassim reveled that he himself only sold short straddles. Very contradictory to what anyone would guess he would do.

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just read The Black Swan, essentially what can go wrong will. The point being we live in extremestan and these unlikely happenings are more likely to happen.

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sosnoff is out to make more money from his services.  Anything he can do to promote that there's money in Options trading on his platform is money.

 

Success stories make you think, "oh Options work! I want in, might as well sign up with the guy who owns this youtube channel and platform".

 

The only problem I have with Sosnoff is that its extremely difficult to understand him for some reason even though his english is so clear.

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest Justin

Posted

That's why I buy my protective puts (take the other side) to balance my longs...

Share this comment


Link to comment
Share on other sites


Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account. It's easy and free!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

Options Trading Blogs Expertido