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Showing content with the highest reputation on 11/10/2018 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    @Kim, @akito, @Paul, @NJ_KenRob I did pretty well on trading the midterms... 87% for a one day trade, 187% for an 8 day trade by buying VXX puts. I'm going to try some trades on the G20. Would love to have some more experienced company to discuss it with. My thesis... * The China Trade war is one of the most influential effects on the current market... especially the Chinese, but even QQQ. * As an example, look at what the market did last friday (Nov 2nd) when Trump tweeted that he wanted his staff to put a China trade deal on paper to consider... many of the china stocks jumped 10%. A couple hour later the white house clarified that the tweet was optimistic. All gains plus some were immediately given up. * Expectations for the Trump/XI meeting at the G20 (Nov 30-Dec 1) are all over the place. * I think the G20 will meeting will function like an earnings call as if all of china were reporting in the same 3 days... volatility and options related to QQQ, BABA, BIDU will go up substantially in the days leading up to the meeting. * I'm planning to do small straddles, strangles and a couple long call positions on BIDU, BABA, QQQ 7 days out and 3 days out (Nov 23rd and 27th). All of these are extremely efficient in terms of bid/ask as well as volume. I'll also likely try a VXX trade. * I haven't decided if I will sell on Thurs Nov 29th, Friday Nov 30th, or hold through the weekend. * I really don't have much of an opinion on whether to use expiration dates of Dec 7, 14 or 21. I may try small trades in all three just to watch. * While no one can predict the direction of Trump, the market reaction should be pretty extreme. If there great progress, the market will soar. If there's no progress or a step back, the market is going to take a big hit... especially China. * If you have ideas, I'd greatly appreciate you sharing them. Even if you don't want to do the trade or have an opinion, let me know if you'd like to see the results.
  2. 1 point
    Good luck! I’m still considering getting into this, but have a lot of irons in the fire these next couple of weeks. I’ll let you know if I take the plunge.
  3. 1 point
    Hi @Ophir Gottlieb. Not sure if this thread is still monitored as it has been inactive for 1 month. I am a happy subscriber and find TM extremely beneficial and a good complement to the SO trades on this site. I think, however it would be of great benefit to address the Calendar Days / Trading Days issue. I have just looked at your latest trade discovery email (Analog Devices). Throughout your commentary you go out of your way to stress that the trade should be entered 5 Trading Days before earnings, which is fine. The issue is that when I run a backtest, it is calculated using Calendar Days. For example over 3 years of the ADI backtest, of the 12 trades 4 were closed early; 4 ran for the full 5 Trading Days; and 4 only ran for 3 Trading Days due to weekends. I am concerned that the results from the backtests are simply inaccurate. Now the real results may be better or worse, but it would be very good to be able test the inputs that are meant to be tested rather than having to waste an inordinate amount of time manually recreating this. IMO I see no benefit in counting weekends in testing. Are there any plans to address this, or even to offer a choice between using Calendar Days or Trading Days when setting test parameters? Thanks in advance.
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