Hi folks,
This is somewhat related to my previous post. My bear call spread is ITM now (RUT 855/865). I adjusted it by rolling it to the next strike (closed 855/865, opened 875/890).
But I was wondering if this could be approached differently. This seems too good to be true, so I'm wondering if I'm missing something.
I could have done nothing for now, and if on October 18 (when my spread expires) RUT is still above $865, I could just roll to the SAME strike prices for the NEXT MONTH, for even more credit. And keep doing it forever, until RUT is below my short leg and it can be closed for profit or expires worthless. This seems too good to be true, but here's my logic:
Since today's price (or any price higher) is way above EMA(20), EMA(50) and EMA(200), it is expected for the price to come down eventually, as it always touch these 3 points from time to time. Of course these indicators would move up, but a lot slower than the price itself. So I could roll the same strike price (855/865) forever, to a point (worse case scenario) that I would get $1,000+ credit (some more for time value) and pay $1,000 to cover it again (if it becomes well ITM). But since the market never goes up straight forever, and it must touch EMA(50) and EMA(200) eventually, then this RUT spread would eventually come down to less than $855 in this case, and in long term, since we're approaching new highs, eventually expire worthless for full profit. I mean, as long as EMA(50) and EMA(200) are below my short leg, there are good chances that the RUT price will come back to it (to close for profit), or simply expire worthless, to digest the recent climbing.
So in theory, there would be no loss adjusting the legs (use same strike price for following month), and eventually they could always be closed for less than the original credit received. This would apply specifically to indexes like RUT, which is low volatile and can never be assigned before expiration.
Thoughts on what I'm missing here? Seems to be almost no risk of loss provided we keep rolling it this way?
Thanks!
Rod