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Showing content with the highest reputation on 07/30/2012 in all areas

  1. 1 point
    Well you're right in one thing -- I don't think my net is that wide. I used to try to also trade using fundamental analysis (ala Buffett/Graham), technical analsyis, trend following (e.g. turtle trading), forex market timing --- read and modeled it all, and found this is what I seemed "best" at. I stick to primarily shorter term option trades. As to how I evolved to where I was now, at one point I traded almost exclusively far OTM ICs. (short and long, but primarily short), and was quite good at it. However, about once every six to nine months, I would have several trades go against me. I can handle 5-10% trades going wrong, but if 30% do, well it wipes out a year of profits. The thoght process was that is stupid, how do I deal with that. So I evolved into trading ATM IC's AND OTM ICs in a given month. That way if a market event happened, that screwed me, as opposed to just underlying stock movements, I could still at least break even. Except it still wasn't perfect because ATM IC's are limited profit, so if a move was big enough, and sustained across a market, I could still theortically lose -- not as bad as before, but could happen. So, I moved into also IV earnings plays. These trades worked great, and if something unexpected happens -- well they just profit more. So, for about a 9 month to year period, I traded three instruments. But then volatility collapsed for a sustained period. That made getting premium on far OTM ICs more difficult, ATM ICs more risky, and IV earnings trades harded to profit on --- but made calendars home runs. So I modeled how do these all interelate in different markets. (High volatility, low volality, earnings, non-earnings, high volume, etc) and have learned that if you include ALL of them, you are greatly hedging your losses. It is VERY unlikely to get burned on all in anyone period. So each week I make a weigting model. Sketch out your proposed trades, pull out an option calculator and figure out what will happen if: 1. market IV drops a ton 2. market IV increases a lot 3. market IV does nothing By running through a combination of calendars, ICs, and IV plays, I can normally develop a scenario where I, theortically, should never have a losing month, regardless of market condtions. That's the ideal situation. Of course, you can have the scenario of where you're covered for the market moves, but you get hosed on all individual trades. For instance, let's say AAPL drops 6% in a week on a calendar play, I don't get an IV move on SINA that historically happened 7 out of the last 8 earnings cycles, I don't get an IV move on stock XYZ that was expected, and my RUT condor, due to increasing market volatility, did not make money. That is very unusual -- typically if you're seeing AAPL drop and market volatility rise, your IV trades would have been profitable. And in fact, 95% of IV trades for the month probably were -- I just chose the wrong ones. That type of thing can still happen, and until I get a $1b portfolio that I can trade all things, can't deal for that situation. (Believe it or not, I actually think, with enough money, you can develop an option portfolio that makes money EVERY month -- for instance if you lose on EVERY IV trade, well that means market IV dropped and my ICs and calendars will be profitable and vice versa). Anyways, hope that provides some insight.
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