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  3. Anderson317

    HR Trader ????

    @SureTrader mentioned HR Trader back in December in a comment I just ran across. They seem very interesting (only $25 for unlimited trading per month and that fee can be waived). However, there is scant information about them on the web. They are members of FINRA and SIPC. Their website is: Does anyone have any experience with HR Trader or have you heard anything about them?
  4. The important point is that these lessons are simple and can be systematized so that in real-time you can simply follow your well-designed plan without having to interject human judgement which is often heavily influenced by emotion and short-term performance. For example, below are the net returns of four funds representing four distinct equity asset classes from 1995-1999. This example is meant for illustrative purposes only, and past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. Notice the stark differences in performance during this time period. US equities dominated both International and Emerging Markets, especially US Large Cap compared to International Small Cap Value. Considering that the average investor instinctively thinks five years is a long enough period of time to evaluate performance, what do you think he or she might feel like doing at this point? Certainly not rebalance the portfolio back to its original weighting by selling a material amount of SPY to buy DISVX. That would feelbackwards, but it’s an important part of successful long-term investing. Let’s now look at the next decade, from 2000-2009, to see why. What a contrast. From 2000-2009, US Large Cap actually produced a loss and International Small Cap Value produced the largest gain. Since most investors are far too concentrated in US Large Caps, it explains why this decade is referred to as “The Lost Decade.” This clearly wasn’t true of all stocks in the US or the rest of the world as we can see. Investors who abandoned diversification in 1999 would have experienced a lot of pain in the 2000’s, while the average of the four asset classes was more than double the starting value.Let’s now put the entire 1995-2009 period in context and also highlight the power of rebalancing. During this entire period, we see all four asset classes produced strong results with the average growth of $100,000 being $369,560. In other words, if an investorput $25,000 into each fund in 1995 and did absolutely nothing, the investment would have been worth $369,560 at the end of 2009. This is a compounded annual return of 9.11%, which highlights the power of equity investing. Yet you’ve probably noticed I’ve added one additional line item to highlight the benefits of rebalancing a portfolio. The rebalancing rule is as follows: Each month, review if any of the funds have drifted by a relative >25% from their target weightings. Since we are targeting 25% in each fund in this simple illustrative example, that means you would rebalance anytime a fund has drifted by more than 6.25% from the target 25% allocation. In other words, as long as each fund’s current weight is between 18.75% and 31.25%, you do nothing. During this period of 1995-2009, you would have rebalanced only eight times. But as we can see, rebalancing would have added more than $45,000 to the portfolio, increasing the compounded annual return to 9.95%. This is more of a “rebalancing premium” than we should expect over the long term, which is no surprise since I intentionally picked funds and a time period for this article to emphasize a point. Vanguard has expressed in its “advisor’s alpha” concept that a good advisor can add “about 3% per year” of value to a client’s situation of which 0.35% per year is estimated to come from disciplined rebalancing. This rebalancing premium is intuitive when we stop and think about it, as it forces us to “buy low/sell high.” Conclusion Human nature is a failed investor, and the best way to overcome the most common investor mistakes is with a well thought out evidence-based plan that incorporates the important concepts of equity asset class diversification and disciplined rebalancing. Working with a financial advisor who intimately understands these concepts can help improve the odds of a successful long-term investment experience. Jesse Blom is a licensed investment advisor and Vice President of Lorintine Capital, LP. He provides investment advice to clients all over the United States and around the world. Jesse has been in financial services since 2008 and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional. Working with a CFP® professional represents the highest standard of financial planning advice. Jesse has a Bachelor of Science in Finance from Oral Roberts University. Jesse manages the Steady Momentum service, and regularly incorporates options into client portfolios. Related articles Cash Is (No Longer) Trash Investment Ideas For Conservative Investors The Importance Of Time Horizon When Investing Steady Momentum ETF Portfolio Equity Index Put Writing For The Long Run
  5. anand331

    Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    I just logged in but looks very slow.
  6. aircal

    Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    logged in prior to open but looks down now
  7. anand331

    Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    Looks like Tradier is down. Can't log in.
  8. anand331

    Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    Yes. Hanging in the authorize phase. Earlier looked to be moving slow but looks like now it is frozen.
  9. ex3y7s

    Tradier Brokerage Special Offer

    Anyone having issues logging into/using Tradier this morning?
  10. DavidR

    Iron condor vs Butterfly

    24% annual return with very low risk over 13 years? I would take it, but I doubt it's possible.
  11. Last week
  12. Welcome aboard ! There are some links here : The posts are not in the right thread, sorry about that. I'm still working on the call ratio calculator, but it's available in beta to get feedbacks. So to answer your questions : the % return and the ratio are taken from @TrustyJules spreadsheet that is available in the Rational Trader thread, and it's using 8 earnings cycles for now.
  13. speedythewarthog

    RV charts : Official Thread

    Hi @Djtux, just subscribed to your web service and enjoying looking around at all the features. I noticed under beta features you have a call ratio calculator, which generates a return matrix for a given pair of call deltas, and produces a ratio. Can you please explain how the %return is calculated, and what the ratio means? How much historical data feeds into these? Thanks! -speedy
  14. In 2004, with $54 million from his personal funds and his former business partner Leucadia National, Ackman started Pershing Square Capital Management. The fund produced an outstanding performance in its first 10 years, outperforming the S&P by a huge margin. However, the fund's returns for 2015-2017 were not so great. However, even including those three years, the fund still significantly outperformed the S&P 500: Those returns are after fees. The gross results (i.e. actual investment results without accounting for hedge fund fees) are even more impressive: showing Ackman beat both the S&P 500 and Berkshire Hathaway by over 770% with gross compounded annual returns of 18.2%. A year ago, the financial media was full of headlines discussing Ackman's performance and withdrawals from the fund. Investors Are Pulling Out of Bill Ackman's Hedge Fund at a 'Rapid Pace', Bill Ackman’s Pershing Square losing cash fast, Is Bill Ackman’s Private Hedge Fund Career Over?, Has Bill Ackman Lost His Touch? are few of last year's headlines. Fast forward one year - here are some of the latest headlines: Bill Ackman’s comeback is on fire with the hedge fund manager up nearly 40% this year, Bill Ackman's Comeback Continues, Bill Ackman Thanks Warren Buffett for His Fund's Comeback in 2019 and more. Those "smart" investors who pulled money from the fund last year must feel not so smart right now. Their time horizons were just too short. Recent study by DALBAR shows that investors consistently underperform the broad markets by significant margins. For the 30 years ending 12/31/2013, the S&P 500 Index averaged 11.11% a year. A pretty attractive historical return. The average equity fund investor earned a market return of only 3.69%. Fidelity Investments conducted a study on their Magellan fund from 1977-1990, during Peter Lynch’s tenure. His average annual return during this period was 29%. This is a remarkable return over the 13 year period. Given all that, you would expect that the investors in his fund made substantial returns over that period. However, what Fidelity Investments found in their study was shocking. The average investor in the fund actually lost money. How is it possible? Lynch himself pointed out a fly in the ointment. When he would have a setback, for example, the money would flow out of the fund through redemptions. Then when he got back on track it would flow back in, having missed the recovery. This isn't about trading skills. The only skill those investors needed was to stick around. But what they did basically was "buy high sell low." I'm sure the results for Pershing Square Capital Management would be similar. The same behaviors apply to individual stocks. Amazon has gained 38,882% from its IPO in 1997, an annualized return of over 36%. To put that in perspective, a $100,000 investment in 1997 would be worth just under $39 million today. But it also experienced a 94% drawdown and few smaller drawdowns of 15-45%. I bet you will have a hard time finding many AMZN investors who had the guts to stick around and earn similar annualized returns. Trading services are no different. As soon as a few losing trades and/or a drawdown of any kind occur, some traders hit the eject button and continue in their search for the Holy Grail strategy that always wins. They often come back after the next winning streak, having missed the recovery. Isn't it the very definition of "Buy High, Sell Low"? There will be bad days and bad weeks and bad months and periodically even a bad year. Focus on following your trading plan, not the short term results of it. Robust strategies are profitable in the long-term time frame. Hedge funds, stocks, index funds and trading services are all investments. If your "buy" decision was based on years of solid performance, but your "sell" decision was based on few bad months, you have just become a part of the next Dalbar study. Related articles Investor Discipline Is The Key To Success Buy High, Sell Low: Why Investors Fail Probability Vs. Certainty Trap Why Retail Investors Lose Money In The Stock Market Why Simple Isn’t Easy Thinking In Terms Of Decades Can you double your account every six months? Is Timeframe Your Biggest Mistake?
  15. Michael C. Thomsett

    Exercise Risk of Uncovered Calls

    You can build in a buffer zone to protect against exercise and monitor the position every day to ensure that no surprises occur. But is this safe? The market risk cannot be ignored, but to some extent, it can be controlled. For example, in a high-priced stock like, a wide range of strikes set up a flexible method for using uncovered calls. As of the close of May 17, 2019, AMZN closed at $1,869 per share and had fallen 38.57 points since the previous day. Given this point range, how safe (or risky) would it be to open an uncovered calls with a 50-point buffer zone? Focusing on the strikes of 1,920 (50 points above the closing price), can a “reasonable” risk level be established? As a first point to be made, the collateral requirement for an uncovered 1,920 strike is 20% of strike value, or $38,400 (minus the premium received for selling the call). This high collateral level should be kept in mind when evaluating the rationale for an uncovered call. Looking at the AMZN chart for the May 17 close, it appears that price has been in a gradually increasing channel of about 225 points. This is a broad range, but given the price level of $1,869 per share, this trading range does not seem extreme. But for the uncovered call, are there opportunities here? The chart reveals the typical trading range as well as the potential range of price movement in single sessions. What you see here is what at first glance is a low level of volatility in the last three to four months. Based just on this, would it make sense to open a short-term uncovered call? Looking at the one-week and two-week calls with a 50-point buffer, we find: 7-day 1,920 call, bid 6.00 14-day 1,920 call, bid 12.60 Adjusting the 50 point buffer for the premium, the true buffer is 57 points for the 7-day call (1,920 – 1,869 + 6) or 63.60 points for the 14-day option (1,920 – 1,869 + 12.60). The rationale for the uncovered call is: With protection of either 57 points or 63.60 points, we may expect time decay to move rapidly. Profits will accumulate as a result, and if the underlying price moves against the position, the buffer zone allows us to buy to close the position without the uncovered call moving in the money. This is a neat and tidy idea, and it is appealing to the logic a trader would enjoy in this situation. The buffer zone protects the position from exercise, and time decay ensures that the call is unlikely to move suddenly in the money. But is this a logical assumption? Between December and February on the chart, the daily breadth of trading for AMAN was greater than 50 points on about 10 sessions. Although volatility more recently has been lower, there have been incidents on 50-points or more moves in a single day. This occurred most recently on May 13, for example. This means that even with the buffer zone and favorable rate of time decay, the strategy can go south in a hurry. You have t ask yourself whether the exposure is worth the risk. For premium of only $600 (7-day) or $1,260 (14-day), are you willing to hold an open short call that could be exercised if the underlying price moved rapidly in a single day? The exposure could be suitable for some traders, but not for most. An alternative would be to open uncovered puts. These are lower-risk even though the market risk is the same as that of a covered call. Unlike the uncovered call with unlimited upside risks, the uncovered put has limited possible risks on the downside and can be rolled forward to avoid exercise. But just as the price of AMZN can move up 50 points or move, it can just as easily and unexpectedly move down. The 50-point buffer is slightly more favorable for uncovered puts than for uncovered calls. The following premium values were found: 7-day 1,820 put, bid 8.45 14-day 1,820 put, bid 15.30 Adjusting the 50 point buffer for the premium, the true buffer is 57.45 points for the 7-day put (1,869 – 1,820 + 8.45) or 64.30 points for the 14-day option (1,869 – 1,820 + 15.30). The same analysis of risk must be applied to make a sound judgment about the risk in this position. Both the uncovered call and the uncovered put look reasonable given rapid time decay, buffer zone, and short term remaining until expiration. But the possibility of a 50-point move (or more) in one day adds risk to the strategy in both cases. Some smart guidelines for writing uncovered options: For calls, avoid having an open position in the ex-dividend week. Although Amazon is used in the example and it does not pay a quarterly dividend, any stock that does offer dividends is most vulnerable to early exercise during this week. A trader holding a long call could exercise it if it moves in the money, and then sell shares on or after -ex-date to get a quarterly dividend in a one or two day holding period – the dividend capture strategy. For both calls and puts, avoid having open position sin the week of earnings announcements. An earnings surprise could lead to rapid movement to ITM status and an immediate early exercise, which could be disastrous to the short position. Be aware of the risks. Nothing is foolproof, and even with short expiration, buffer zone, and rapid time decay, what looks good on paper can turn into a big money loser. No one likes surprises, and the worst surprise of all is a big loss from a poorly-placed short option trade. Michael C. Thomsett is a widely published author with over 80 business and investing books, including the best-selling Getting Started in Options, coming out in its 10th edition later this year. He also wrote the recently released The Mathematics of Options. Thomsett is a frequent speaker at trade shows and blogs on his website at Thomsett Guide as well as on Seeking Alpha, LinkedIn, Twitter and Facebook. Related articles: Uncovering The Covered Call Selling Naked Put Options The Naked Put, A Low-Risk Strategy 2 Tweaks To Covered Calls And Naked Calls Dangers Of The Covered Call Naked Options: Redefining High Risk Are Uncovered Calls Always High-Risk?
  16. That's the forecasted trend for each symbol for the upcoming week.
  17. Hi RapperT & Jjapp What is the meaning of FCST in your tables? Thanks. Bernie
  18. RapperT

    Welcome to Steady Futures

    new signals will be up shortly
  19. Kim

    Recommended reading

    I lie Jeff Augen, his books are very good.
  20. Tamas

    Recommended reading

    What do you think about those books?:
  21. Earlier
  22. Kim


    Did you have a chance to read your welcome email? I highly recommend that you spend few minutes and do so.
  23. Tradermike


    So I started the 10 day trial ...are picks posted on the site or emailed to us?
  24. RapperT

    Welcome to Steady Futures

    not the best day to be short grains, will be interesting to see how this all plays out longer term
  25. Jesse

    Cash is (no longer) Trash

    Banks know that, on average, customers are uninformed and/or chose not to take action if they don’t have to. Yet maximizing interest yield on savings is almost as easy as bending over and picking up dollar bills on the ground. If you were walking down the sidewalk and saw a $100 bill lying on the ground, you’d pick it up, wouldn’t you? Now calculate how much interest you’re missing out on in your savings account over the course of a year. ($50,000 will earn over $1,000 in interest at 2%). Banks are the conventional places to hold excess cash for purposes of upcoming expenses or as an emergency fund, but they aren’t the only options. Brokerage accounts should be considered as well, with many attractive cash management mutual funds and ETF’s available in the marketplace that hold low-risk securities like US Treasury Bills and short-term bonds. Informed savers and investors are taking advantage of current yields of at least 2% net of all fees. Many of these products also trade commission free at brokerage firms like TD Ameritrade, Schwab, Vanguard, and others with no minimum holding periods. My firm, Lorintine Capital, monitors interest rates and helps clients manage their cash in the most efficient ways possible. We charge a modest management fee of 0.15% for such services and can help you create accounts with TD Ameritrade Institutional that include debit/ATM card and check writing privileges at no additional cost. TD Ameritrade Institutional even rebates your ATM fees. ACH links with your primary checking account can be created. All you have to do is contact us anytime for transfers that usually are completed within 2-3 business days. Setting up a brokerage account for cash management purposes also leads to client discussions about how much cash and savings is appropriate for your financial goals. Even at a 2%+ yields, interest income net of taxes has a negative expected return over the long-term when inflation is considered.Over the long-term, risk begins to transform from short-term volatility into long-term erosion of purchasing power. For this reason, we often recommend clients manage their cash as follows: One month of expenses in your primary checking account. Three to six months of expenses in a cash management brokerage account that includes check writing and debit card privileges. This account should be thought of as your emergency fund to help avoid needing to dip into retirement savings or having to take out employer 401k or bank loans or accumulate high interest credit card debt. There’s simply no excuse for this. Any intermediate term lump-sum expenditures within the next 3-5 years should also be kept in either the emergency fund brokerage account or a duplicate of that account (for mental accounting purposes). Examples of this could be funds for purchasing a car, an upcoming wedding, a down payment on a home, tuition expenses, etc. For cash with a time-horizon beyond 5 years, we can focus on building wealth through expertly designed equity portfolios from Dimensional Fund Advisors. Summary Cash is no longer trash if you make it work hard for you. Many banks are profiting significantly from the average American’s inattentiveness to the climbing interest rates. Check your current interest rates and consider making changes if they are not competitive. When you do that, consider basic financial planning strategies like having an emergency fund that is large enough for emergencies without being so large opportunities are lost to invest a percentage of your savings for long term growth and higher expected returns. Jesse Blom is a licensed investment advisor and Vice President of Lorintine Capital, LP. He provides investment advice to clients all over the United States and around the world. Jesse has been in financial services since 2008 and is a CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™ professional. Working with a CFP® professional represents the highest standard of financial planning advice. Jesse has a Bachelor of Science in Finance from Oral Roberts University. Jesse manages the Steady Momentum service, and regularly incorporates options into client portfolios.
  26. Some news on the beta phase you might welcome: The site is running pretty stable so far with some minor hickups still here and there. As announced it would be time to roll out the rest and start regular operations. However: Things have started moving here with some projects, I now have the opportunity to do something I wanted to do since long (something I was not sure I would be able to do before my son actually starts school): I will take my family on an RV and sailing tour through Canada for the entire month of June. With a lot of nature and a lot of sailing - and often with little to no internet connectivity. So while I am looking forward to it, I have also chartaffair to take care. You guys gave good feedback on the 'premium character' of chartaffair. I also expect it to continue running smoothly without me babysitting it during June. Even if not, I have a team of highly skilled people looking daily and being ready to jump in and help. But there might be situations I cannot ask from them to solve all by themselves, since I am still the one knowing the site best. In short, although unlikly, I cannot guarantee that in June there will not be a few days without failing updates etc. Now, because I do not feel it is right to charge for a period which I cannot guarantee full functioning, and frankly also because I simply do not want to worry while traveling, I decided to give all beta testers one and a half months more of free access to the site as it is now. Also rolling out the final pages will be after I will be back.
  27. In TW there is a quote last function that shows the last trade - whether it is accurate or not I dont know. Closing times and particularly on Friday when the market is moving about a lot spreads widen and you can get weird results, When I use One I tend to go for modelling based on quotes NOT at the end of the day.
  28. Thanks. This is what I figured but you are the first person to actually confirm my suspicions. I wonder if its even possible to see actual last filled prices like you can for regular stock trades? I would think/hope that if its possible the brokers would show this instead of the mid price. I know CBOE sells time and sales data for each trade but it is rather expensive.
  29. @frank the tank This isn't specific to TOS, I've used IB for years and see the exact same thing. The LAST is almost always the MID and I know that isn't correct. The MID is calculated from the individual legs, so that number can be pretty far off also when trying to get filled. The PnL showing on the individual trades is not even close most days. It's frustrating but just shows how much work you need to put in sometimes to get better results. For example, when I get an instant fill, I know I've probably left a few bucks on the table.
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