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This post is gold. I don't have monthly returns of SPY in a table form, but I assume they would look similar relative to historical returns. So someone who entered the stock market in January 2025 based on long term return of 10-12%, would be way below those returns now. If they quit now, they will most certainly miss very solid returns in the next 10-20 years.
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from the comment so far, it is obvious there are as many reasons why traders lose as there are traders aside from all previously mentioned, sometimes the market conditions are hostile to a particular strategy, or strategies. (see 2016, 2019 on chart belo) SO performance as an example; so far SO is way down from statistical average first 4 months of year, only 9%, on track to be worse full year in its history, prior worst full year was 40% would you have joined if 40% was average result? lets just suppose that 2025 ends 4x9%=36% and you are able to realize 1/2 that, =18% (just no way you will match or beat @Yowster at his own game) that is still an impressive gain, but frankly you will work for every penny of it consider the current market conditions the best training you will ever receive as a trader good news is that historically, last part of year is usually the best part of the year for SO profit-wise, yay! if trades you are able to enter are ending in losses, cut your position size, or stop trading until you have a better feel for market and impact on strat(s) you are trading, aka sih, sit-on-hands many current traders have only experienced a continuously rising market fueled by fed stimuli rising tide lifts all ships that is no longer happening and the traders now in charge of big money have no idea what they're doing, is all new to them, whip-sawed hither, thither, and yon, i would not be surprised if many traders are deep in the hole so far this year but i can guarantee you one thing, you will end the year either up,down, or b/e anyone tells you anything else is selling something
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Chartaffair.com - RV Charts & Backtesting for Steady Options
Christof+ replied to Christof+'s topic in Promotions and Tools
Ok, DBD still needs an update, all other oddities I know of are resolved. Thank you to all reporting this to me. -
Chartaffair.com - RV Charts & Backtesting for Steady Options
Christof+ replied to Christof+'s topic in Promotions and Tools
@poseidolginko Thank you, I will immediately have a look. It looks like there is some larger problem. I am investigating. -
Chartaffair.com - RV Charts & Backtesting for Steady Options
poseidolginko replied to Christof+'s topic in Promotions and Tools
Could you also look at COIN? It's missing a number of cycles as well. Thanks. -
Chartaffair.com - RV Charts & Backtesting for Steady Options
Christof+ replied to Christof+'s topic in Promotions and Tools
@KaiDaniel Thanks for the headsup. UBER is fixed, DKNG will be shortly. -
Chartaffair.com - RV Charts & Backtesting for Steady Options
KaiDaniel replied to Christof+'s topic in Promotions and Tools
Hi, I might notice a BUG. Looks like no 2024 Eranings data is availible for DKNG. I saw the same for other Tickers I reviewd yesterday. -
Very sounds advice Chris. And it should apply to all strategies, not just Anchor. Unfortunately, some "investors" think in terms of weeks and months instead of years and decades. No wonder that 90% of investors lose money in the stock market. P.S. Anchor was up 4.1% in April vs. SPY down 0.91%. Anchor is down 4.6% as of April 30, matching SPY performance more or less. But in 2024 Anchor was up 37.8% compared to SPY up 23.3%.
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And I would also encourage everyone to look at a year to year basis -- not a month to month, just because of how the strategy works. The hedges have to both kick in and be paid for. The "worst" case for the strategy is about a 7% SPY drawdown right after opening a new year strategy. At that point you've not paid for the hedge at all, plus you've lost some on the diagonal, and as the hedge doesn't really start until a 5% drawdown, then you haven't gotten the advantage of having it. On a 12 month rolling basis, it works great (except for one period due to an odd mix of market crash plus volatility dropping, but we did address that). Anchor ideally outperforms in up markets (those up over 10%) and in crashes (over 15% to 20%). In flat markets (5% to -5%) we EXPECT to underperform. In small down markets (-5% to -10%) it's a tossup depending on a lot of factors if we outperform or over perform. (Past performance does not always indicate future performance)
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As a side note, we encourage people to look at the big picture and not focus on the last few weeks. Anchor is has been CRASHING the S&P 500 since inception, up 223.3%, compared to S&P 500 return of 134.7% (as of 12/31/2024). We also recommend reading How Anchor Survived the 2020 Crash. On March 19 2020, SPY at 234 (down 30%), Anchor UP $5k (~3%).
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On the "liberation day" crash, we just barely missed what I would have considered to be our roll point for the hedges. On that day, S&P was down about 17% and my portfolio was down about 10%. We didn't quite hit the roll point, so now we've sort of inverted with the S&P being down about 6% while my portfolio is down about 11%. But if we continue to recover, portfolio should recover faster here. If we retest lows, we should be able to roll this time and lock in being ahead. If we just float right here, we should be able to make pretty good premium on our diagonals, but I would assume we would lag the market a bit. Had the price of SPY dropped about another $10, we likely would have rolled our hedges and been up. Sometimes we just don't quite hit the break point though.
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Thanks. What about recent performance in current market environment?
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All performance numbers are on the performance page. 20.1% CAGR since inception, beating the S&P by significant margin.
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Is there an update to this strategy? Before I join the paid service I'm interested to know how it behave during Aug 2024 and this year? Is it in a drawdown currently?
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@Djtux Can you double check your data source for ROKU IV on T-0 which was yesterday (May 1) I had a long straddle open and was watching IV for the ATM strikes. I never got above 300 and actually fell down to around 275 as shown in Think or Swim https://i.imgur.com/KAF1Mrp.png in VolHQ it shows that straddle IV went up to 530 which is not what I saw in real-time. I have noticed this a few times and its dangerous because the IV estimates seemed to be always inflated for many stocks. Thank you. https://i.imgur.com/jTnRCMy.png
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hey, wait a minute, im irish! ,really... during the "great recession", saw an interview of an independent trucker. he had been losing money on every load since it all started and half his savings was gone. interviewer asked him what he planned to do. replied, "run my truck until im broke and then park it", as tho that was the dumbest question he had ever heard, sad but true story
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All well said! A couple of things based on experience: - Trade style should match your trade personality and trade character. (Are you are day trader or swing trader/position trader?) - Options Education (Do you understand your max risk or exposure before a trade is placed?) - Volatility response (Matches rule 1, but you have to experience it to know how much volatility you can handle.) No paper trades - Profitability Goal (Yes, options/trade education is important. However, if it doesn't transform to profitability then it's a total hype and/or waste of time) - Options trading is not the holy grain of stock trading/investing. (Options trading should be one of the tools used as part of a multiple-faceted approach to investment profitability) - Less is more (Overtrading is a real thing and it has the potential of diminishing profitability in the long run) - Compementary trading systems help smoothen the curve. (Find two complementary systems that help smoothen the volatility curve and work out a combination or ratio that suits your investment goal) - It's ok to pivot when necessary (Options trading isn't for everyone. It's ok to give it a try and admit if it's your thing or not.) Pivoting to a profitable system is great. Whether that's an options based system, combination of both, or not is ok. - Stick with what works (Keep it simple. Stick to what works for you and make it the bread and butter of your system. Everyone gets that hunch to experiment, keep it nimble and in a separate account)
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That reminds me of the Irish farmer who won the lotto. When asked what he would do with the money. He said I'll keep farming until it is all gone.😀
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think my response would have been, "i know a guaranteed way to have an account balance of 1.25 million your first year of trading.. start with 2.5 million and quit when you reach 1.25. many have done it, so can you." HA!
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If I had to select one thing that causes most traders to fail, it would be wrong expectations. I know I sound like a broken record, but consider this: when someone wants to become and engineer or an accountant, do they expect to achieve this in a few months? No, they fully expect spending at least 4 years and tends of thousands of dollars in University (not to mention becoming a doctor or a lawyer). And yet, many people read all the hype and expect becoming experts after a few months. When I just started SO, I got an email from one of my Seeking Alpha readers. He told me that he is a big fan of my articles and asked how he can learn more. He wanted to make it his new career. He asked me if I can recommend any books or internet sites to learn/practice the options strategies. Then he said that he is new to trading options, he set aside a small amount of money in hopes of doubling it at least yearly. Don't you find it amazing? The guy admits he is new to options, but wants to double the account "at least yearly". My reply was: "There is a lot of hype surrounding options trading. Some "gurus" out there will make you to believe that doubling your account every 6-12 months is an easy task. If it was, we all would be millionaires by now. My advice to you: if you just start options trading, preserving your capital during your first year of trading would be a great achievement" I didn't hear from him since then. He probably went to one of those charlatans who promise to double your account in one month and charge you few thousand dollars for a week of “one on one consulting”. Many people will tell you what you want to hear to get your hard earned money. Here is another email from one of our former members: "I'm new to options trading. I'm retired and am hoping to make $1.25 million per year by trading" This member cancelled after just 2 weeks. Why I'm not surprised? And honestly, I would be very interested to know the psychology behind people thinking they can have no experience with something, probably not even know how to place an order, and start making money with options right away. A 7 figure income in this case. But maybe it's the same psychology that makes people to believe that they can lose 50 pounds in 2 months without any effort..
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In addition to @InvestTrader, something else that dovetails into position size. Don't "day trade" your positions, and if you are, then ask the nice nurse for another shot and go back to your computer. Seriously, what I mean is, if I have a position open that is getting beat up, I try not to focus on the chart constantly, watching it's every move, this very often leads to me closing or altering the position, in other words, over trading. Sure, there are times I must focus on as specific trade/ticker, but I don't have the temperament to watch the screen, filled with angst like a day trader, finger hovering over the send button. And yet, I still often do it, so I have to constantly control that tendency. I think that one thing has cost me more money than any other.
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For me, finding the appropriate trade size was one of the things that had the most impact on my trading. When the trades are too large for our account or for our ability to handle a loss, the probability of panicking and making wrong decisions is enormous. For me, it is comforting to enter a trade and calmly face the worst possible scenario as something I can take or accept. This gives me the necessary tranquility to make rational and calm decisions regarding trade management. It’s often the difference between winning or losing
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I would advocate this board as a winning strategy. I have traded various strategies for quite some time. Here is my humble thoughts to being profitable... Your win/loss ratio has to be obviously greater than 50%. I would arbitrarily say 2/3 winning minimum. The system you trade must be very transparent about the average and MAX loss. I have seen systems advertised (and tried) the have 85% win ratios. The 15% of the trades that loose can wipe out your gains. I haven't always won. I have become more conservative over the years. This board has an excellent amount of historical data, which is broken down very well into trade type. The posters are excellent in terms of posting trades. Just my 2 cents.
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couldnt agree more, simple is the most difficult of all
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Hi June I see you joined yesterday. You have plenty of posts to learn. There is wealth of knowledge here. Three years is not enough to be profitable trader. It takes 10+ years to be a really profitable trader in most market conditions. Take your time and be prepared for long haul. I have been through 3-4 liquidation events in my career and still trading and going strong even in todays challenging times. You need passion . With passion and perseverance and guidance and hope and discipline and hard work and courage and tiny amount of luck , you can join the elite club of consistently profitable traders who depend on trading for their day to day living.
