SteadyOptions is an options trading forum where you can find solutions from top options traders. TRY IT FREE!

We’ve all been there… researching options strategies and unable to find the answers we’re looking for. SteadyOptions has your solution.

Earnings Momentum Trading in Google


Alphabet Inc (NASDAQ:GOOGL) follows the overwhelming pattern of this bull market's personality -- bullish momentum in a stock just days before earnings. Let's take a look at how just a two trading day period has been influenced so heavily by optimism. Alphabet reports earnings on 2-1-2018, after the market closes.

Which is also the same day that Apple and Amazon report. Two trading days before 2-1-2018 would be Tuesday, January 30th. 

IDEA 
The idea is quite simple -- trying to take advantage of a pattern in short-term bullishness just before earnings, and then getting out of the way so no actual earnings risk is taken, looking at just the 2 trading days before earnings. 

The Short-term Option Swing Trade Ahead of Earnings in Alphabet Inc 
We will examine the outcome of going long a weekly out of the money call option in Alphabet Inc just two trading days before earnings and selling the call the day of the actual news. But, since Alphabet reports earnings after the market closes, this back-test does not take a position on the earnings result -- it closes before the report. 
 

setup_2_0_earnings.png



Often times we look at option set-ups that are longer-term, and take no directional bet -- this is not one of those times. This is a no holds barred short-term bullish swing trade with options and that's it. It's a bullish bet, so must be conscious of the delta risk. 

RISK MANAGEMENT 
We can add another layer of risk management to the back-test by instituting and 40% stop loss and a 40% limit gain. Here is that setting: 
 

setup_4040_limit.png



In English, at the close of each trading day we check to see if the long option is either up or down 40% relative to the open price. If it was, the trade was closed. 

RESULTS 
Below we present the back-test stats over the last two-years in Alphabet Inc: 
 

GOOGL: Long 40 Delta Call
 
% Wins: 87.5%
 
Wins: 7   Losses: 1
 
% Return:  136% 

Tap Here to See the Back-test


The mechanics of the TradeMachine™ are that it uses end of day prices for every back-test entry and exit (every trigger). 

We see a 136% return, testing this over the last 8 earnings dates in Alphabet Inc. That's a total of just 16 days (2-day holding period for each earnings date, over 8 earnings dates). 

Setting Expectations 
While this strategy has an overall return of 136%, the trade details keep us in bounds with expectations: 
      ➡ The average percent return per trade was 21% over two-days. 
      ➡ The average percent return per winning trade was 28.4% over two-days. 
      ➡ The percent return for the losing trade was -31% over two-days. 

Looking at More Recent History 
We did a multi-year back-test above, now we can look at just the last year: 
 

GOOGL: Long 40 Delta Call
 
% Wins: 100%
 
Wins: 4   Losses: 0
 
% Return:  102% 

Tap Here to See the Back-test


We're now looking at102% returns, on 4 winning trades and 0 losing trades. 
      ➡ The average percent return over the last year per trade was 22%. 

WHAT HAPPENED 
Bull markets tend to create optimism, whether it's deserved or not. To see how to find the best performing historical momentum, technical analysis or non-directional trades for any stock using empirical results rather than guesses, we welcome you to watch this quick demonstration video: 
Tap Here to See the Tools at Work 

Risk Disclosure 
You should read the Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options

Past performance is not an indication of future results. 

 

 

 

What Is SteadyOptions?

Full Trading Plan

Complete Portfolio Approach

Diversified Options Strategies

Exclusive Community Forum

Steady And Consistent Gains

High Quality Education

Risk Management, Portfolio Size

Performance based on real fills

Try It Free

Non-directional Options Strategies

10-15 trade Ideas Per Month

Targets 5-7% Monthly Net Return

Visit our Education Center

Recent Articles

Articles

  • Expiration Short Strategies

    Some traders have entered the options arena by selling exceptionally long-term contracts. The rationale for this is based on dollar amounts. A 24-month contract may yield an impressive dollar amount, but is it the best net return? It is not.

    By Michael C. Thomsett,

    • 0 comments
    • 31 views
  • Should You Finance or Pay Cash for a Home?

    When buying a home, individuals who have accumulated enough wealth to pay cash or make a substantial down payment have a decision to make. Take advantage of record low interest rates and lock in a 30-year mortgage for around 2.5%? Or pay cash and make payments to yourself by investing the savings?

    By Jesse,

    • 0 comments
    • 104 views
  • Implied Volatility Collapse

    The key ingredient on expiration Friday is volatility collapse. At the beginning of that last trading day, there are more than 6 hours of trading yet to go. However, there are 38 hours left before expiration on Saturday. When volatility is high, OTM options are most likely to be overpriced.

    By Michael C. Thomsett,

    • 0 comments
    • 204 views
  • Trading Volatility: Why It Isn’t Always a Bad Thing

    Volatility is still widely misunderstood — and feared — by novice traders. As someone lacking in trading knowledge and experience, you often hear and believe horror stories of unstable markets. The fear is valid. After all, your shares and investments are at an elevated risk in an unpredictable environment.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 193 views
  • Models and their limits

    Options traders tend to think mathematically. When considering selection of an underlying, risks and expected profits, the model of outcomes is a primary tool for making selections. Without a model how can anyone understand the differences between two or more options that might otherwise appear the same – similar moneyness, same strike, and same premium.

    By Michael C. Thomsett,

    • 0 comments
    • 195 views
  • When You've Only Got $1000 To Invest, What Do You Do?

    Are you new to the world of investments? Most likely; it’s not something you just fall into! BUt at the same time, investing can be done by anyone. Investing doesn’t need to be saved for retirement. It isn’t something only the uber rich are able to get into.

    By Kim,

    • 0 comments
    • 436 views
  • Use of Options Spreads to Reduce Risk

    Traders may view spreads as a means for reducing market risk. But this also means that the potential profit is just as limited as potential loss, and this is easily overlooked in the focus on risk alone. A realistic view of spreading is that it reduces risk in exchange for accepting limited maximum profit.

    By Michael C. Thomsett,

    • 0 comments
    • 501 views
  • Put Writing in 2020: The Role of Timing Luck

    The impact of luck can play a meaningful role in the short-term outcomes of monthly option trades due to the requirement to roll expiring contracts. The extreme volatility in 2020 highlightsthis fact when we look at results of SPY cash secured put trades launched on slightly different start dates.

    By Jesse,

    • 0 comments
    • 492 views
  • The problem of Option Math

    Option traders may be divided into two categories. First are those relying on instinct or casual observation. This group tends to speculate on directional movement, future volatility, value, and on potential profitability of trades. The second group is involved deeply with math of trading and depends on what is perceived as certainty or near certainty.

    By Michael C. Thomsett,

    • 0 comments
    • 663 views
  • Put/Call Parity: Two Definitions

    Traders hear the term put/call parity a lot, but what does it mean? There are two definitions and they are vastly different from one another. The first definition involves the net credit/debit for any combination trade, with trading costs are considered. The second definition takes assumed interest rates and present value into mind.

    By Michael C. Thomsett,

    • 0 comments
    • 552 views

  Report Article

We want to hear from you!


There are no comments to display.



Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account. It's easy and free!


Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.


Sign In Now

Options Trading Blogs Expertido